I had
planned on giving a detailed breakdown of Week 1 NFL action this week
and talking about key numbers next week, but a handful of phone calls
yesterday changed my mind. We had a few newer players who were a
little puzzled because their wager on the Patriots was +3 –120. In
fact, one player wanted to close his account because our lines were
“weird”. Since I currently see off-standard odds on eight of next
week’s games at different books, including next Monday’s game, I
figure this is a perfect time to cover key numbers and off-standard
lines. Again, I have borrowed from a column I wrote last football
season, but it warrants repeating.
First
off, football is unique among the major pro sports in terms of how
points are scored. In baseball, hockey and soccer, all scores are
valued as a single point. These sports also tend to have low scores
and the average margin of victory is extremely low so pointspreads
aren’t used in the same way as they are in football and basketball,
and moneylines are the most common form of betting. Basketball scores
come in increments of 1, 2 or 3, but the high amount of scoring makes
for an even distribution of final scores. As a result, basketball is
perhaps the simplest sport to wager on in terms of lines offered.
Football gets complicated because the scoring comes in chunks of 3
points (for a Field Goal) and 7 points (for a converted Touchdown).
There is also a small amount of other scoring possibilities with
safeties providing 2 points, missed extra points making a Touchdown
worth only 6 and the two point conversion making 8 a possibility.
Scoring in football tends to take place in football on average only
about 8 times a game so, unlike basketball, the final scores do group
around certain numbers, known as key numbers. The major key
numbers are 3 and 7, but 1, 4, 6, 10, 13 and 14 have a high
likelihood of being the final margin of victory as well and are
sometimes referred to as minor key numbers. If we
look at how all these numbers relate to 3 and 7, its easy to see why
they occur frequently. The following chart shows the frequency of
certain final scores for the 2001 NFL season as well as the
relationship of the number to a combination of Touchdowns and Field
Goals:
3 17.3%
Field Goal
7 9.7% Touchdown
10 6.9% Touchdown + Field Goal
4 5.6% Touchdown – Field Goal
1 4.4% Touchdown – 2 Field Goals
6 4.4% 2 Field Goals
14 4.4% 2 Touchdowns
13 4.0% Touchdown + 2 Field Goals
This
past weekend had 5 games decided by a Field Goal and 2 more won on
special teams Touchdowns in Overtime so it was very possible that just
just 3 points could have decided 7 of the 16 games. It is easy to see
that a Field Goal is the difference in a lot of NFL games. I’m sure
that this is not a big surprise to you but lets look at this from a
sportsbook’s point of view.
Lets
use Monday Night’s Pittsburgh-New England game to illustrate the
danger to the House and what sportsbooks must to do to avoid the
peril. The line in this case opened at Pittsburgh –1 several weeks
back and was quickly bet to –2.5. Here is where the Book Manager’s
nightmare begins. At –2.5 bettors loved the Steelers but as soon as
the House moved to –3, the action shifted to New England. If 3 weren’t
a key number, this would have been no problem, as book managers would
simply move between the two numbers to balance action. Unfortunately,
because the spread was –3, moving between 2.5 and 3 entails large
risks. I covered this a little bit in Issue #22 and I will talk more
in a later column, but here is a quick recap.
In the
most basic of cases, lets assume there were wagers of $110 to win $100
on the Steelers –2.5 and then $110 to win $100 on Patriots +3. The
game is balanced but the House would risk being sided if the game
ended with the Steelers up 3. The Pittsburgh wagers would win but the
Patriots wagers would push so the House would lose the $100. In this
case, the House would be in a situation where it could only lose $100
or collect the vig of $10 if the score fell on any other number.
The
chance of the final score for a game landing on 3 is roughly 17% as we
saw above. Assuming an even split between dogs and favorites, the
chance of a 3 point favorite winning by 3 is about 8.5%. This would
mean that 8.5% of these games would result in the House being sided or
middled. This would be disastrous for a business where 4.5% is the
profit margin! Now lets look at what sportsbooks do to balance action
without moving on or off key numbers.
There
are two ways a sportsbook can avoid the risk of key numbers. The first
way is to know what the closing line will be and to get to it as soon
as possible. For example, the Rams game this weekend opened at St.
Louis –2.5 and early action was on the Rams. BoDog’s top bookmaker,
Kent, predicted an ultimate move to –3 and moved the line there as
quickly as possible. The Rams money continued at –3 so this ended up
being the right move. Unfortunately, this is very difficult to predict
and mistakes can be costly.
The
other way to balance action is to alter the odds associated with the
pointspread. Most pointspreads are offered at standard odds of –110,
meaning you must risk $110 to win $100. (Remember that when
sportsbooks move a pointspread, the odds don’t change, as the spreads
only affects whether your wager is a winner or not. Changing the odds,
on the other hand, doesn’t affect whether your wager is a winner or
not, but instead affects the payout.) By changing the odds away from
the standard of –110, the House can make the same line more or less
attractive to people looking to place wagers. The Pittsburgh-New
England line had plenty of this. Bettors liked the Steelers –2.5 and
also liked the Patriots +3 so a middle ground is the bookmaker’s only
choice. In this case, the line was –2.5 (–120) at some books and –3
(Even) at others. Bettors now had a choice, they could take Pittsburgh
at only –2.5 but would have to risk $120 to win $100 or they could lay
–3 but lay only $100 to win $100. The –3 spread is far more likely to
be a push but the payoff is better. New England bettors could now get
+3 instead of +2.5 but would have to risk $120 instead of $100 to win
$100. Off-standard lines split the bettors into the two groups (those
that like the extra half point and those that like laying the lower
price) and give books a chance to balance action without having to
move on-and-off a spread such as –3.
I
checked 20 books yesterday and found off-standard lines at 18 of them
for the Monday Night game so this is far more common in the NFL than
many new bettors think it is. As it turned out the score was never
close and books breathed a sigh of relief with the Patriots winning by
16. Hopefully now when you see a sportsbook offer a line that is
off-standard, you will know the logic behind it and hopefully you can
benefit by looking for some value and laying less than -110 on the
team you want. This also explains why many books charge premiums for
buying points on or off key numbers.
Now I’d
like to introduce a new feature to my column – Kent’s Line
Move of the Week. He is BoDog’s number one bookmaker and I
have asked him to talk about an interesting line each week of the
football season. “This week’s line was the Stanford-Boston College
line that opened at the very first books at BC -6/-6.5 and closed all
the way up to -11. The game of course ended 34-27 for Boston College
after the Eagles scored 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter
including a TD with just over 30-second to go in the game. Bettors who
got in early cashed winners with Boston College, those betting later
pushed, and others jumping on the steam move ended up with losing
tickets. This was a good lesson in playing favorites early and dogs
late - if you did both of these things on this one game you would have
cashed a ticket on both sides for an easy middle. It was also a lesson
in why players cannot simply follow the steam plays and come up with
winners - following steam action means you are always getting the
worst of the number. The bettors are what make the line move so if you
don't get it early then getting the worst of the line will always
catch up with you if you choose to simply follow.”
As
always, feel free to email if you have any questions or comments. My
thanks to Kent and I will be back next week with a detailed analysis
of a week’s worth of line moves. I’d also like to take this
opportunity to pass along my thoughts and prayers to those effected by
the tragedy of a year ago.
I
always welcome comments, questions and suggestions via email at
rob@bodog.com
Rob Gillespie
Operations Manager
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