Rather
than my normal column format, I thought I would give you a look at how
Sunday went for the House this past weekend. I try and give a little
snapshot of this every week, but this time I will pull the curtain
wide open.
The
weekend got off to a good start as players liked Marshall on Thursday
night (the Hokies 47-21 victory made that a big winner for the book)
and Friday was a record day for baseball with player favorites Boston
(-200), Yankees (-300), Braves (-250) and Diamondbacks (-200) plus the
Astros with Oswalt (-200) all losing. Saturday was a big day for the
book as well with Miami, Purdue, Mississippi, Pittsburgh, Kentucky,
Oklahoma State and especially Michigan not covering. The players had
some revenge with Florida State and Iowa State but not enough to make
up for the other losses.
Perhaps
surprisingly, the early game with the most handle was the
Titans-Cowboys. In Week One, the Titans looked good in their win over
the Eagles and after the Cowpokes’ dreadful Sunday Night opener
against the expansion Houston Texans it seemed the public wanted no
part of Dallas, even as a 3 or 4-point home dog. The line opened –3
and players bet it hard to –4. Trust me when I say that bookies do not
like to move a spread across these numbers in the NFL so this was some
serious money across the board. I saw a few books flash +4.5 on Sunday
and that seemed to bring the pros out, as there was a late flurry of
Cowboys money, but not even close to enough to get the action
balanced. The 21-13 Dallas win was a great one for sportsbooks
everywhere.
The
next busiest game was Patriots-Jets. Once again the Pats were shown no
respect and opened as a 1-point dog. Early action was on the Jets and
the line went as high as New York –2 before the Patriot bettors came
out in force. The game closed at Pick’em and the House was left
cheering slightly for the Jets. Not quite as good a result for the
House as the Titans win….I think line makers will be giving the
Patriots a little more respect now.
The
Packers and Saints drew a lot of action, as the public always likes to
bet the Packers. Line hovered between Green Bay –2 and –2.5 and the
action was reasonably balanced, but a late surge of Packers’ money
made the Saints win good for the House. Teasers were a big payoff for
the House here as a lot of players teased the Packers from –2.5 to
+4.5. This isn’t a bad tease as you cross –1, +1, +3 and +4 but the
15-point Saints margin-of-victory made it a losing bet on this
occasion.
For the
Bucs-Ravens game, Tampa Bay got a lot of the action, even after their
embarrassing opening week loss to the Saints. Baltimore’s loss to
Carolina made people forget they were Super Bowl winners just 2 years
ago. The book opened up Bucs –3.5 and the line was quickly moved to
–4. There was some initial resistance at –4 and it looked like that
might be the right line, but weekend money on Tampa Bay moved the line
all the way to –5. It was evident pretty quick that the Ravens were
outmatched and players were going to beat us there.
The
Miami-Indianapolis game was a strange one for us. The line opened at
Colts –2.5 and the early money was on Indianapolis. We had to consider
going to –3 but then the Dolphin’s money came and kept coming until
the line was –1. Late Colts money at Pick’em kept the damage to the
book small and the 8-point Miami win helped us to cash in a few
teasers. This game went to the wire but left the book a little
disappointed with Peyton Manning.
The
Bears-Falcons game was an easy one for the House to run. The line was
opened at Atlanta –3 and closed there at kickoff. Early action was on
the Bears so the line was moved to –3 (Even) and that was enough to
attract the prefect amount of Falcons money. A handful of moves from
–3 to –3 (-105) to –3 (Even) and back balanced the action to within a
few hundred dollars and the bookmakers could simply watch and enjoy
the Bears’ nail-biting victory.
The
Browns-Bengals, Jaguars-Chiefs and Lions-Panthers games didn’t get
near as much action as the other early games and there were few line
moves as a result. (Makes me wonder if people have something against
betting on teams with cat names?) The Chiefs opened and closed at –4
with balanced action although there was some late steam on the Over
(moved from 42.5 to 45.5) and a little on the Chiefs that made it a
good one for the book. Panthers opened and closed –3 and I don’t think
anybody noticed. There was a little Under money (moved from 37 to 35)
so the Panther’s 31-7 win was good as well. Browns opened at –4 and a
mid-week spurt moved the line to –4.5. The money Friday and Saturday
was on the Bungles…er…Bengals (sorry, couldn’t resist) and the line
closed back at –4. The action was very balanced so the House simply
collected a little vig for the game.
The
afternoon saw its share of action as well with the Broncos-49ers
capturing most of the money. Line opened 49ers –3 and was quickly bet
to –3.5. Action was balanced all week at –3.5 but players seemed to
really like the 49ers on the moneyline and the Over (opened and closed
at 44). The Broncos straight up win was a great one as it paid off on
all three line types and cleared out a lot of teasers (-3.5 to +3.5 is
the most popular teaser).
The
Buffalo Bills made a lot of people happy in the afternoon. The line
opened Vikings –5 and was bet down to –3.5. The Over was also a
popular play as the number moved from 47 to 49 so the Overtime 45-39
Bills’ win was not great for us but certainly was exciting to watch.
The game also went so long that it ended just 15 minutes before the
Sunday Night kickoff and this did have some impact on the late game
handle.
The
Rams-Giants game had decent action considering the line was so high.
The Rams opened as –12.5 favorites and some Giants action brought it
down to –11.5. Although the move from –12.5 to –11.5 is pretty
insignificant in bookmakers’ eyes, it certainly had an effect and
there was a run of Rams action at that number. There was an incredible
amount of sweetheart teaser action on the Rams (to –1.5 or +1.5
points) and the Giants huge upset made these very profitable for the
book. There was also a lot of Rams’ moneyline action at –650 and –700
as players took the “sure thing” in straights and in parlays. I am
sure there are a lot of “survivor” pools with half of the players
missing. I know ours is that way.
The
Seahawks-Cardinals and Chargers-Texans games saw limited action. I am
not sure if this is because the teams are located in the West or
because they are just not very good. Seattle opened and closed at –3.5
with no line moves at all (other than half-juice on Friday). Action
was all square and thus it was just a small vig-maker for the book.
The Chargers opened –13 and moved to –12.5 on slight Texans action.
Late Charger’s money evened the action and brought the line back to
–13. There was some action over the relatively low total of 34 and
that made the game a little profitable for the House.
Overall, it was a pretty good day for the book. There were a couple of
significant line moves that ended in the player’s favor (Bills,
Dolphins, Patriots) and I would expect to see the lines next week
adjust for these teams. Bettors were very wrong on the Titans, Packers
and 49ers so I would expect to see those lines move the other way.
The
Sunday night game featured the Steelers and Raiders, both popular with
the betting public. However, the Steelers embarrassing loss to the
Pats on Monday Night last week meant that Raiders money would be
coming so the book opened Steelers –3.5 (we had planned on –4 before
the Monday Night game). Surprisingly, there was some Steelers action
on the spread and the line moved to –4. A few bettors took the points
but many more liked Oakland +150 on the moneyline as a fast way to
make up for earlier losses. There was also some heavy betting on the
Over and the total moved from 40 to 41. The 30-17 Raider’s victory
made a lot of players happy and turned a good day into an average one
very quickly.
Anyway,
that is how it looked from my vantage point yesterday. It was an
exciting day (and a long one) and we get to do it all over again next
weekend. Good luck this week and I will be back to regularly scheduled
programming next week with a look at betting first halves.
I
always welcome comments, questions and suggestions via email at
rob@bodog.com
Rob Gillespie
Operations Manager
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