|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Aussie
Rules
|
Centrebet
Capers
[Rugby League | RUGBY LEAGUE] Only two favourites covered the "spreads" in NRL action last weekend, needless to say we had a very good round. We kept out of the Bulldogs v Melbourne clash until Friday, but when betting opened, it was obvious punters thought that the Bulldogs would be out to make a statement with bets of $30,000 and $12,000 arriving them conceding 12½ points start, and another $16,000 wager to win outright at $1.22. Late money, in the form of two $5000 bets, came for Melbourne when they touched $4.50, but although competitive, they fell eight points short. We also took a bet of $20,000 (from New Zealand) that the total game score would be over 48½ points but the game total of 40 points was yet another example of night matches falling under the total. Stragglers Souths and North Qld played out an entertaining match on Saturday night which also went our way when a converted Paul Bowman try with two minutes to go saw North Qld sneak home 36-34. The Cowboys went in as $1.75 favourites, even though most of the late money was for Souths. The largest losing bet was from England, that being £4500 on Souths at $2.10. Penrith looked very unlucky to go down 32-30 to Newcastle on Sunday. This was a strange betting game for us as we took win bets of $4000, $2000 and $1000 for Penrith to win at $5, yet three separate $10,000 bets were placed on Newcastle conceding 10½ and 11½ points start. The 26-10 win by the Roosters over St George wasn't indicative of how close the game actually was in the first half, but those who took the -5½ points for the Roosters wouldn't have cared too much. There was ample support for the Roosters, with one Sydney punter making three visits to our site to invest a total of $21,000 on them conceding the start. Our best result of the round was the two point win by the Eagles over the New Zealand Warriors. As we said last week, the form of the Warriors has been "patchy" to say the least, and the Eagles have played well at Brookvale. A client from NZ placed the biggest bet on the Warriors, $20,000 at -6½ points ($1.90), while another Kiwi placed $10,000 on the same option. It's all going horribly wrong for New Zealand at the moment, but they still look an excellent chance of grabbing the minor premiership, which in turn would mean two home finals. They have gambled though by leaving five front-line players out this weekend against the Tigers. Pricing up this week's games was not an easy task, taking into account how motivated some teams will be. Warriors coach Daniel Anderson indicated after last week's match that he may not field his best side, and while he has been directed to do so, only the brave would jump in and take the -14½ points against West Tigers. Brisbane need to beat the Bulldogs to ensure a top two finish, but early money points towards punters thinking that the Bronco's will struggle. The Bulldogs opened at $2, with early bets totaling $16,000 forcing that quote into $1.90. The two "form sides" of the competition, Cronulla and the Roosters, play at Toyota Park on Saturday night. That's enough to warrant Cronulla being favourites at $1.70, and with those two also due to play in round one of the finals, a win by either would be a big advantage. We have taken an early bet of $8800 for the Sharks conceding the start (-2½ points), but the Roosters have an army of supporters who have been taking the $2.20. Parramatta can't go anywhere on the ladder, and knowing coach Brian Smith's penchant for changing his side around, it's quite possible that North Qld will beat them on Saturday night. Desperate to get something out of Parramatta, we have gone $1.38 or -8½ points but there isn't much interest. Finally, the Newcastle Knights are the "risk" of the round as far as we are concerned. St George-Illawarra are playing for a finals spot, that's enough to tilt the scales their way. The Dragons are slight underdogs at $2.10, but as we haven't seen any significant early money for Newcastle at $1.70, they seem certain to get to a better quote. [Australian Rules | AUSTRALIAN RULES] There wasn't much in it in the battle with punters following last week's round of AFL, with a couple of well backed sides winning, but also a couple going over. Brisbane were probably the best backed side of the round in a monstrous betting match. A $25,000 bet was placed on Brisbane at $1.75, and several other $10,000 bets were taken as they firmed into $1.65. Thursday also saw a $50,000 wager come from Queensland for Brisbane to win the premiership at $1.95, and while they still might, it was pleasing to see Port win as it proves that the Lions can be beaten. Geelong were playing for a finals spot on Friday night, which was enough for a Sydney punter to place $30,000 on them with 8½ points start. The form of the Cats took a turn for the worse at the wrong end of the season, and while they got within three goals of Hawthorn at the finish, they were always struggling. West Coast landed several big bets, including one of $13,000 at $1.90, when impressive 17 point victors over the Kangaroos. Along with Geelong, the West Coast were the best backed side to run last before the season started, so they have done a Herculian job to make the finals. A truckload of late money saw Fremantle go around at $1.60 against Adelaide on Sunday. The "conspiracy theories" that Adelaide, who drifted to $2.25, had "nothing to play for", were soon dispelled as the Crows raced to a 40 point lead early in the game, and comfortably held onto that margin. The finals are upon us, and on face value, there looks to be some "good things" this week, but you just never know what might happen! The Brisbane Lions hit a minor hurdle last week, but return to the GABBA on Saturday night as $1.25 favourites to beat Adelaide. The Lions have been coupled up with the other two "shorties", Port and Essendon, in over $40,000 worth of multiples, and that was only in the first 48 hours of trading! The Crows have a decent record against Brisbane, and we think they can at least get "inside" the handicap of 25 points. James Hird is in doubt for Essendon, so that also makes the Bombers a bit vulnerable to cover a 29 point handicap against the West Coast. Essendon were written off as a premiership hope three weeks ago, but although they have to win four "sudden death" matches to win the final, punters think they can, and also that they will "cover" the line this week. A few early bets totaling just over $17,000 have been placed on Essendon conceding the start. Some money has come for Collingwood to win ($5), and also to stay within 33 points of Port Adelaide on Friday night, but the Collingwood side that were humiliated by over 40 points by the Bulldogs last week really do face a tough assignment to get even that close. Both Melbourne ($1.65) and the Kangaroos ($2.20) have met with support in their match at the MCG on Sunday, but we will be risking the Kangaroos as we maintain Melbourne forward David Neitz will be too agile for the Kangaroos backline. It's lucky Brisbane were beaten last week, as who knows how short they would have been to win the premiership if they had defeated Port Adelaide! We posted the Lions at $2.10 on Monday, and after taking nearly $20,000 in bets, we have decided to temporarily "wave the white flag" and have brought them into $2. Now that the home and away season is over, Luke Darcy is $3 to win the Brownlow Medal, ahead of Josh Francou ($4), Ben Cousins ($5) and Shane Crawford ($7). I wonder how long we will have to wait before the first "leak?" [Cricket | CRICKET] The Fourth Test between England and India starts tonight (Thurs) at The Oval, and similar to the first three, the "draw" is very short. After opening at $2, some of our Indian punters took the draw option with bets of $USD 5000 and $AUD 10,000, with more action coming at $1.90. The weather looks to favour those punters at the moment, but neither of these sides are renowned for being too good when pressure is applied, so laying the draw at "odds on" is good as far as we are concerned. The Australian One Day side brushed away the cobwebs in a fine performance against Pakistan in their first game of the Kenyan One Day Series. These two met again last night, where Australia went in as short favourites at $1.40. One of our Indian punters placed $USD 10,000 at that quote, and Aussie punters also joined him taking the odds on offer, apart from one Sydney client who bet $6000 on Pakistan at $3.10. The Aussies went through the Pakistani batting line up like a dose of Epsom salts, and if they are the pick of the World Cup sides outside of Australia and South Africa, then the World Cup should be coming here again. The ICC Trophy starts next week, and no doubt there will be big interest on these matches as it is a "mini" World Cup. Australia are the favourites to win the title at $2.50 ahead of South Africa at $4. [Golf | GOLF] Gene Sauers’ last Tour victory was in 1989 and only one punter thought he could win last week's Air Canada Championship, and that bet was only placed prior to the last round. A Sydney man invested $1000 on Sauers’ at $5, and just like the previous week when a couple of Aussies were in a winning position, we took plenty of money following the completion of the third round. Both Robert Allenby ($3.25) and Peter Lonard ($3.50) attracted $2000 bets, and a Victorian punter placed $2500 on eventual runner-up Steve Lowery at $5. The Bell Canadian Open is on this week, where Vijay Singh is favourite at $8. Singh and second favourite Justin Leonard ($11) have had inconsistent years, and this has been reflected in a distinct trend of betting away from that duo. Charles Howell III ($16), last year's winner Scott Verplank ($17), John Daly ($41) and Jesper Parnevik ($41) have been backed to take out $10,000 each way by a client from NSW, and several English clients have taken the $29 we are offering for Bob Estes, who was placed second last year. Danish punters hit us hard last week when Thomas Bjorn won his second Munich International Open in three years. Bjorn was available at $16 before the event started, and we really had no hope as equal runner-up, Bernard Langer, was also a bad result for Centrebet. We get a chance to get something back this week as several of those who won last week have come back to take the $10 for Bjorn to win the Omega European Championship in Switzerland. The Dane has a fine record in this event, being placed second in 1999 and 2000. Ernie Els is the $7 favourite, however second pick, Retief Goosen, has had $2000 placed each way at $9. A couple of previous winners, Ricardo Gonzalez ($29 - won in 2001), and Eduardo Romero ($34 - won in 2000) have also been extremely popular with each way punters, as have Carl Peterson ($51) and Nick Faldo ($51). Els is quite obviously the one to beat, but the Aussies have been going well in most golf events around the globe, and both Nick O'Hern ($51) and Stephen Leaney ($51) must be rated rough shows of at least getting into the placings. [Formula One | FORMULA ONE] Michael Schumacher broke another record when he was the first driver to record 10 wins in a single season, taking out the Belgium Grand Prix on Sunday. Schumacher rewarded one devout German fan when he not only won the race, but also drove the quickest lap. The client, from Berlin, placed €3000 on Schumacher to drive the quickest lap at $2, and also placed €9000 on him to win at $1.55. Punters correctly predicted the Ferrari domination would continue with the only other driver to attract big money being runner-up Rubens Barrichello. Barichello was $3.25 with Centrebet, a price which a Queensland client took with a bet of $8000. Kimi Raikkonen ($7) drew the mandatory amount of bet activity from our Finnish clients, but while he impressed in qualifying, he was no match for the Ferraris'. [Motor Bikes | MOTOR BIKES] Valentino Rossi is $1.35 to win in Portugal this week, but the punters have been very cautious on this race following on from the upset two weeks ago in the first race back from the major break. Max Biaggi won his first race in over 12 months when victorious in the Czech Republic, and it was obvious from qualifying that Biaggi's team had made some improvements and that Daijiro Katoh's five stroke bike will be a threat in the final few races. Added to that was Rossi's failure to finish the race, so maybe, just maybe, we might have a contest on our hands! Nearly $1200 worth of bets have been placed on Biaggi at $5.50, and we have also taken a bet of $800 for Katoh to win at $7, but it seems as though most punters can't grasp the fact that Katoh was going around unwanted at $101+, and now all of a sudden he has improved out of sight, but he has on the bigger bike. A much respected bike enthusiast, who has been a consistent winner with us on these events, has invested $3000 on Katoh to finish on the podium at $1.65, so that's good enough for us! The same guy has also had $3000 on Katoh to beat home Tohru Ukawa in a head to head at $1.60. [Boxing | BOXING] The "Human Headline", Anthony Mundine, seemed to be trying to get across the idea that maybe he wasn't unbeatable against Soon Botes in their PABA Super Middleweight fight in Sydney last Monday night. Mundine was eager to point out that he had problems with a possible broken knuckle, which saw punters steer away from the option on Mundine to win by KO. Early in the week we took a $4000 bet for "The Man" to win by KO at $1.25, but on Monday, close to $4000 was placed on Mundine to win on points. Even with problems, Mundine put Botes away in the third round, again raising question marks over the capabilities of his opponent. The WBC Super Middleweight title will be decided in Montreal this weekend. Canadian Eric "Lucky Luke" Lucas will be out to defend his title, and is favourite at $1.50. We have taken two $2000 bets already for Lucas, who went nearly 12 full rounds with Roy Jones Junior. Lucas' opponent, Omar Shaika ($2.40), hasn't fought since a TKO loss (on cuts) to Thomas Tate, and by all reports he had Tate in trouble at the time, so this one could go either way. Roy Jones Junior also defends his undisputed Light Heavyweight title this week against a virtual unknown Englishman, Clinton Woods. Jones is $1.01 to win, and $1.10 to win by KO, but one Sydney punter has placed $6000 at $1.50 that the fight will last at least six rounds. [Racing | RACING] Caulfield and Melbourne Cup markets are up, as is the Cox Plate, and Centrebet will also be covering the Greyhound finals of the National Sprint and Distance events tonight (Thurs). Victorian Modern Assassin is the $1.70 to win the National Sprint final, and in his current form only has to keep clear of any major interference early to win. The Victorian should have a huge local cheer squad at the Queensland track as he is owned and trained by the mother of Brisbane Lions forward Jonathon Brown. The red runner, Edwards Affair, has come into $11 after being backed to win close to $15,000, and there has also been support for the NSW runner Tommy Hand at $5. In the Distance final, six dogs have met with support. McDeebee, the local hope, is $2.50 following his barnstorming finish to qualify, and we have taken bets of $2000 and $1000 at that quote. Victorian hope Boomeroo is poorly draw in box 3, and while we have been eager to lay him at $3, the largest bet so far has only been $800. NSW representative Why Complain looks ideally suited in box 2, and is definitely capable of upsetting the two favourites. Although Lohnro was beaten last start as a long odds on favourite, he is still relatively short to win the Cox Plate. The $4 on offer has been taken with close to $5000 worth of bets, but the best backed runner has been Northerly, who two punters have supported to take out $20,000 in total at $9. Rain Gauge ($51) has been backed to win $25,000, but a Cups campaign looks more likely for this stayer. Magical Miss is now $6 to win the Caulfield Cup, but trainer Bart Cummings has suggested a Cox Plate start isn't out of the question, so we haven't seen much support for her. Don Eduardo ($16), Sixty Seconds ($21), Benarrivo ($51) and Tyrolean ($51) are easily the best backed so far in the Caulfield Cup, while Don Eduardo ($17) and second elect Vinnie Roe ($11) carry the bulk of early support in Melbourne Cup trading. [American Football | AMERICAN FOOTBALL] Round one of the NFL begins this week, and punters confidently predicted that not only will St Louis beat Denver this week, but will go on and win the Superbowl. This week we have taken two substantial bets on St Louis, one to win the Superbowl, the other to win the NFC Championship. A Sydney client has bet $20,000 that the Rams will win the Bowl at $4.20, while a German client invested €20,000 for St Louis to win the NFC title at $2.75. The same person has put €10,000 on St Louis conceding 2½ points start in Denver ($1.90), and two bets of $8000 have come from Australians for the same option. The New York Giants have had solid support to win the Superbowl at big odds, but all the money in Thursday night's season opener has been for San Francisco. Early in the week we took bets of $USD 5000 (twice) and $8800 for San Francisco conceding 2½ points start, and now we continue to see money at -3. Chicago (-4½) against Minnesota and Pittsburgh (-2) against New England are two other sides carrying the hopes of punters. Both had over $25,000 placed on them in early trading, and in a very busy week, we have achieved our aim to "take on every favourite", with the only one we have "missed" so far being Washington (-7) against Arizona. [Soccer | SOCCER] West Ham were backed as though punters already knew the result last Saturday, however Charlton defied a big betting drift to beat West Ham 2-0. West Ham opened at $1.90 which was quickly snapped up with two bets coming from Australians, one of $15,000 the other for $5000. The last significant bet on the match was €7000 on the “Hammers” at $1.75. Three draws gave us terrific results when Man United, Arsenal and Liverpool all were held to draws by their respective opposition teams. The pick of those for us was the 1-1 draw between Chelsea and Arsenal as Arsenal drew big bets of $12,000, $10,000 (twice) and several $5000 bets at $2.30. Liverpool turned a certain victory into a near defeat when they played out a 2-2 draw with Newcastle. Liverpool were the last, and also the first leg in some very big multiple bets, and those punters were entitled to think they were “home” when Liverpool led 2-0 late in the second half. Newcastle came back strongly to draw level, and then had an opportunity to win the game, and Liverpools form must be of concern to those who took the $4 for them to win the title. Birmingham surprised most, but not one English punter, when they defeat Leeds 2-1. A £2500 bet was placed on Birmingham at $4.65, and the same punter rounded off a good weekend when he also placed £2500 on the draw between Sunderland and Man United at $3.55. A couple of high profile sides were also casualties in other leagues at the weekend. In Denmark, favourite backers copped a battering when only one of the six favourites won, although Koge ($3.70) were backed to take out just under 300,000 DKK ($AUD 60,000) when they beat AGF 2-0. We pinpointed Brondby as a risky conveyance when they played Esbjerg, and things went the right way when the match ended 1-1. One bet of 100,000 DKK was placed on Brondby at $1.60, but that same punter won a little more than that back when he placed 50,000 DKK on AaB at $3.10 to beat FCK. We rated FCK as the best bet of the round, but they were “thumped” 3-0. In Norway, four of the seven favourites won, but division one was terrible when six of eight won. The only real piece of good news in division one was the Haugesund ($1.20) were held to a 1-1 draw by Lorenskog, other wise it would have been a good deal worse. One of the season biggest bets was landed when a client from Oslo placed 250,000 NOK on Molde at $1.95, and they defeated Moss 3-2. This week, the Euro 2004 qualifiers are on, and once again we have taken the opportunity to let punters bet into a 100% market with Centrebet on the Norway v Denmark match. Norway have won the past three encounters between these two sides, but the Norwegians’ form has been ordinary of late. The one advantage they do have is that the match is in Oslo, so they are the favourites at $2.75. We have taken many bets in excess of 20,000 NOK for Norway, but a win by Norway is still our best option. A massive bet of £12,000 was placed on Denmark when they opened at $3.10, and we have also detected many Norwegians backing both the draw and Denmark, thinking their side is a “risk”. Without a doubt, many punters around the globe are backing one or two options with us, and backing the other somewhere else so that they are guaranteed to win regardless of who wins the match. That’s fine by us, and if there is anybody out there who has a good win as a result of this, let us know. As for the other matches, there are several very short priced favourites, and all of these have been coupled up in multiple bets. We will be looking for a forward showing from soccer “minnows” the Faroe Islands, after we accepted a bet of $USD 14,000 from an Austrian client for Scotland to win that match at $1.50, while a similar bet, $USD 10,000 (from England) has gone onto Sweden ($1.50) to beat Latvia. All major competitions will be in recess for the weekend, so the turnover on these matches will be very high. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
