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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet
Capers
[Australian Rules | AUSTRALIAN RULES] This week's two preliminary finals can deliver two interstate grand finalists for the first time and as things currently stand, the Premiership Cup is a $1.45 chance to be heading back to Brisbane! Three weeks is a long time in football, and it was only that long ago that Port Adelaide scored the "win of the season" by beating Brisbane. Port led by nearly six goals on that occasion, before Brisbane hit the front, only to see Port come back and win. That form has been completely ignored by punters this week, as in early trading we have only seen just under $2000 in bets for Port at $4.15, although we have taken $3000 worth of bets for "The Power" with 29 points start. The big money however is all for the Lions, led up by a bet of $30,000 at $1.22. We have also taken just over $25,000 in bets for the Brisbane side to beat the 29½ point handicap, but while Port have had their critics from their last two performances, and the game is in Brisbane, we think that with the pressure of the press of their backs this week, that they will definately be competitive. Eddie McGuire says Collingwood "will go it alone" as far as support in the other final goes, and to a degree we have first hand knowledge of how desperate "anti Magpie" supporters are for Adelaide to win. We opened the Crows at $2.15, with the ratio of bets coming for the Crows running at 10-1, so we were forced to cut them to $2.12. Adelaide punters are flushed with cash at the moment, and the bets continue to roll in for Crows, although one Victorian punter has placed $20,000 on Collingwood at $1.70. There has been a lot of talk this week about how much travel the Crows have done, and how hard it is to go through the finals series undefeated, but they have done it all before and defied the odds! Currently, Adelaide are $7.50 along with Port to win the premiership, so the South Australian's are the outsiders. Lots of small bets have come for both, and we have also taken just on $8000 this week for Collingwood at $5.50. Brisbane remain $1.45 with Centrebet, and while we continue to see money channeled through them in premiership doubles, it's getting to a stage where we might have to shorten them again as the Lions are a very ordinary result for us. Yesterday, a Sydney client placed $40,000 on “the two Brisbane’s” to win $100,000. Luke Darcy is a drifting favourite at $3 to win the Brownlow Medal next Monday night. Darcy has been favourite for six weeks, but we haven't taken any money for him at the short odds. The Bulldogs big man is a big loser in our book, but we are determined to "go on" with him. Ben Cousins ($4) is the player we have had no difficulty laying over the past few weeks. Cousins had a good year, and was placed last year, so he has proven he can capture the eye of the umpires. Josh Francou is also very popular with each way punters at $4, as is Hawthorn's Shane Crawford ($8). One player we haven't laid for too much, and are happy to run with, is Brisbane's Simon Black. Black ($11), has had a stellar season, and our internal Brownlow Medal "guru" says Black will poll at least 20 votes, which means he'll go close. Just to prove how open it is this year, in the past week bets to lose $200,000 have been taken on Paul Licuria (Coll), Troy Simmonds and Wayne Campbell (Rich). Finally, we have complained often enough about the "last kick of the match" that has proven costly on more than one occasion this year. Well, we have to own up to one going our way when Port Adelaide's Damien Hardwick's last kick of the match against Essendon sailed through for a point. Port players were playing "keepings off" for the last two minutes of the game before Hardwick marked as the siren went. Many big bets, including two of $10,000, had been placed on Port Adelaide at -28½ points, and with the margin sitting on 23 points, it all came down to the one kick, which went our way for a change! [Rugby League | RUGBY LEAGUE] The first week of league finals betting went to the bookies with only one favourite, the Roosters, covering the handicap, and of course St George-Illawarra provided an upset when they defeated defending premier Newcastle. The Roosters 32-20 win over Cronulla ended up not being too costly for Centrebet when late money arrived for the Sharks. The biggest single bet on the game was only $15,000 for the Roosters when they touched $1.60, but the volume of bets made it our busiest final ever. Brisbane beat Parramatta 24-14, but not before the Eels held sway for 60 minutes and looked like springing an upset. Brisbane managed to come away with a win, but the 10 point margin fell just short of the handicap, which moved from -10½ to -12½. Several $10,000 bets were placed on Brisbane giving up the start, and it was similar when Newcastle play St George-Illawarra on Saturday night. There was money for the Dragons when they touched $3, but the Knights had been backed from $1.48 into $1.40 led up by a $12,000 bet from a Sydney client. When Andrew Johns went off with a serious injury eight minutes into the clash, that all but ended any hope Newcastle had, and they probably did a good job to only go down by four points. Bets of $18,500 and $15,000 were placed on Canberra with 18½ points start against New Zealand on Sunday, and with 5 minutes to go, and trailing 36-10, those punters would have given up all hope of collecting. Two late tries (one converted) to the Raiders saw them reduce the margin back to 16 points as New Zealand seemed to "ease off". This was also a huge betting game which attracted a win bet of $8000 for Canberra at $6.50, and also three $10,000 bets, all from New Zealand, for the Warriors conceding the start. Just to prove how important Andrew Johns is has been reflected in the current betting. Had the Knights gone on to beat the Dragons last weekend, they would have been around the $2.50 mark to win the title, but with Johns sidelined for the rest of the finals, Newcastle are $4 to beat the Roosters this week, and $18 to win the title! Newcastle have managed only three wins from 14 matches that the champion half back has missed, so we are only seeing money off really loyal Knights punters this week. The Roosters are $1.25 to win this game, and an emphatic win could see them go in as favourites to beat Brisbane next week, which explains why we have the Roosters at $2.50 to make the grand final. Brisbane have struggled for the past six weeks, and the Roosters have found form at the right time. It's ironic that Cronulla's loss to the Roosters has ended up being a "blessing in disguise" following Newcastle's loss. The Sharks line up against the Dragons this week, with the winner then playing in Sydney against New Zealand for a spot in the final. There is little doubt that the Kiwi's will be the outsiders in that game, which is why we took $25,000 in two bets for them to make the final at $2.25. The Cronulla Sharks are $1.65 or -2½ to win this week a devout Sharks fan has weighed in with a $30,000 wager conceding the start, but the army of Dragons supporters has been out in force, including bets of $10,000 and $8000 to win ($2.25), and nearly $15,000 with the 2½ points start. Brisbane are $2.50 to win the big one, but we are looking for Brisbane backers as we claim that is well under the odds. They still have to win two sudden death games, and away from home. We are already standing the Bronco's for a "stack", so now looks like a good time to go on with them. The Roosters are solid second picks at $4 and have attracted $12,000 in bets this week, while the others in the betting continue to draw small bets. [Rugby Union | RUGBY UNION] Eastwood get the advantage of a week off in the first round of the Toohey's New Cup finals which start this weekend. The elimination final on Sunday at Waratah Stadium will see Wests go in as $1.55 (-4½) against Souths. West went down 28-24 to Eastwood last week, earning two bonus points which saw them grab fifth spot. They trailed 22-0 at one stage against the premiership favourites, so on that form they deserve favourtism. Punters disagree however, as most early betting has centred around Souths. The major semi final on Saturday will be a replay of last week's match between Sydney Uni and Randwick, which ended in a 25-25 draw. The draw was a great result for Centrebet as some significant money, which included a bet of $6600, was placed on Sydney Uni at -2½ points. Some of those punters have returned as the early trading has been all for Sydney Uni both to win at $1.65, and also a bet of $3300 at -2½ points ($1.90). Randwick will be bolstered this week by the return of Wallaby backrower Owen Finegan who didn't play last week due to a wedding, and there is also a possibility that Matt Rogers might also line up. It's not known when a definite decision will be made on Rogers, but should he play, we are tipping a Randwick win. Money has begun to come for Randwick, including a $3000 win bet at $2.20. [Racing | RACING] It's been a very hectic week in trading on both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, as well as the Cox Plate. New Melbourne Cup favourite Vinnie Roe was the talk of racing circles last Thursday when a person closely connected to the Dermott Weld stable backed the stayer with Centrebet to win $¾ million at $9. Knowing the horse has been "pitch forked" into the Cup, that he was an odds on favourite to win the Irish St Leger, and certain to come to Australia, we decided to "dump" whatever we could. This started a nationwide plunge, and when Vinnie Roe won the St Leger, we immediately installed him at $7 to win the 3200 metre race in November. Pugin, runner-up to Vinnie Roe, was purchased after the race by Godolphin, and a Melbourne Cup start is now on the agenda. That news elevated Pugin to $15, but that has been snapped up, mostly by Australian punters. The other big mover has been another Godolphin entrant, Beekeeper. Beekeeper won at Doncaster on Friday over 2000 metres at his first start for three months. We had Beekeeper at $67, but a couple of alert punters took that before the result came through. He is now a $21 chance, and has been backed to take out $20,000 this week, also backed to win the same amount in the Caulfield Cup at $41. With all the publicity surrounding both races, and such a strong overseas contingent likely to be coming, we have noticed a massive increase in the level of interest, and this is shaping as our biggest ever Cup's carnival. [Darts | DARTS] Queenslander Tony David made it back to back wins in the World Darts title in the Netherlands at the weekend. Centrebet covered most of the big matches, and one fellow Queenslander thought that David was a "good thing" to beat Peter Johnstone, coupling him up to win the final at $1.30 with Port Adelaide to beat Essendon at $1.22. His $10,000 outlay won him $5800, more than enough to buy Tony David a beer if he ever comes across him in a Queensland pub practicing! [Golf | GOLF] Stephen Leaney continued the excellent form that Aussie golfers have been displaying around the world when he won the German Masters. Leaney was $81 pre tournament, and while that didn't interest punters, we did take a few small bets prior to the last round at $5. Leader Paul Casey was one of our worst results after he had been backed to win $20,000 when betting opened at $41, but even though he came into the last round two shots clear of Leaney, we couldn't find one single person prepared to take the $2. As it turned out, on a very "friendly" course, Casey eventually tied for third. The World Golf Championship is being played in Kilkenny, Ireland this week, where Tiger Woods is the $2.65 favourite. In early betting, we have only taken $3000 for Tiger as punters seem to be happy to stick with the European players. Sergio Garcia ($17) has attracted a bet of $1200 each way, Irishman Padraig Harrington ($26) has been backed to take out $40,000 in a series of bets, while Darren Clarke ($41) and Colin Montgomerie ($51), have been backed to win $20,000 by a Queensland punter. Robert Allenby, who is in good form and has moved into the world top 20 is ($31) and heads up the list of Aussie starters, and there has been support for him, along with youngster Adam Scott at $51. In the USA, Dan Forsman came from three shots off the pace to win the Pennsylvania Classic last week with an eagle on his final hole. Forsman, who had been winless for 10 years in the Tour, was another "bolter" in pre-tournament betting at $126, and was still available at $17 coming into the last round behind favourite Billy Andrade. Andrade was backed with a $4000 bet at that stage ($2.75), but we also took $3000 for John Senden ($17) and John Huston ($13) who were also three behind Andrade. Very few leaders after three rounds have been able to go on and win recently, and we have noticed that punters have also been alerted to this fact as "leading favourites" become increasingly hard to sell. John Huston is our $17 favourite to win the Tampa Bay Classic this week. Due to September 11, the Classic wasn't played last year, but Huston won in 2000 defeating Carl Paulson by three shots. Huston is a "local", so those facts, along with a solid finish last week, has seen a good deal of money come for Huston in a not overly strong field. Steve Flesch continues to be backed and beaten, and once again there are plenty around to take the $21 this week. John Daly is another that fits into the same category, and we have laid Daly to take out over $20,000 at what appears a short quote of $23. Veterans Lee Janzen ($41) and Hal Sutton ($51) are two others backed to win $15,000 each way by an English client, but all in all it's not a spectacular betting event. The Ladies will be in Minneapolis for the Solheim Cup this week. The USA are $1.55 to win the cup, with a "tie" at $11, and Europe at $2.60. With unstoppable Swede Annika Sorenstam heading up the Europeans, most of the Cup betting has been for Europe, and we have also taken bets of $2000 and $1400 for Sorenstam to be the top European points scorer at $2.50. Juli Inkster is $4.50 to top the USA, with early action for Rosie Jones at $7. [Formula One | FORMULA ONE] Ferrari produced a replica of so many previous finishes this year when they finished first and second in last weekend's Italian Grand Prix, the only major difference being Rubens Barrichello raised the chequered flag. Barrichello had an ordinary couple of days in qualifying, and went into the race not really wanted at $4.50. Schumacher was the favourite at $1.65, but the bulk of the big money was on quickest qualifier, and last year's winner, Juan Pablo Montoya. We paid out plenty, including €10,000, to one German client when Montoya qualified quickest, and that saw him go into the race a $4 chance. Montoya continuously struggles when under race conditions, and even though he was easily our worst result, we "risked" him further taking another $5000 in bets on the day of the race. Williams team mate Ralf Schumacher also had admirers, with two English clients investing $1500 between them on Schumacher Junior at $10, but after setting up a handy lead early in the race, engine trouble forced him to retire. Rank outsider Eddie Irvine showed significant improvement to finish on the podium in third place, not totally unexpected by one Malaysian client who placed $300 for Irvine to finish in the placings at $26. [Ice Hockey | ICE HOCKEY] Scandinavian Ice Hockey is back for another season, and on Tuesday night we had the first round of the Finnish Sm-Liga. Normally the early rounds can be a little quite as punters wait a few weeks to form their own opinions of the "form" of sides, but we found the first round extremely busy. Easily the largest betting game was Ilves at home to Tappara. Ilves opened at $4.50, but several thousand Euros forced that quote into $3.40. When there is money for an outsider, we invariably see money for the draw as well, and two bets of €2000 were placed on that option at $5.50. When Tappara "eased" out to $1.65, they were coupled up in some big doubles with HPK ($1.52 to beat Pelicans) and TPS ($1.73 to beat JYP). Tappara won 5-3, HPK also had a win (4-2), but TPS let punters down by losing 2-1 to JYP. HIFK ($15 - $6.50) and TPS ($11 - $9) have been the most popular with Finnish punters to win the title, but our analysts think Jokerit ($1.95) is the team to beat. Once again we have opened a market on the first coach to be replaced in the new season. The Finns' are renowned for being very unforgiving when things don't go according to plan, and what would be a concern for all coaches is that eleven of the thirteen have had money placed on them, while not one person backed the "no coach replaced" option at $5.50. Ilves coach Ari-Pekka Selin is favourite at $3, but lots of "support" has come Assat's Mika Toivola ($9) and Blues coach Hannu Kapanen, who is now $7 after opening at $25. In Norway, Valerenga are $2.15 to win the title ahead of Storhamar at $2.50. As it turns out, these two meet in round one, with Valerenga the $1.90 favourite. We have taken two early bets of 20,000 NOK ($AUD 4000) and 17,000 NOK for Valerenga, but Storhamar have attracted more bets at $2.50. A 50,000 NOK bet has been placed on Frisk Asker at $1.26 to open the season with a win over Sparta Sarsborg. [Politics | POLITICS] It's now highly likely Social Democratic Party leader Gerhard Schroder will be retaining the keys to the chancellor's office or Germany following the latest market moves. Schroder is $1.55 with Centrebet to retain power, with Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union candidate Edmund Stoiber trading at $2.10. The former Niedersachsen premier's group is $1.60 to win more seats than any other political party. The CDU/CSU alliance is $2 to be the biggest parliamentary group. Not a single punter has backed Stoiber to defeat Schroder since his chancellorship odds drifted above $2. All the late money is for the incumbent, whose handling of the Iraq and flood affairs is striking a chord with voters. Stoiber requires a miracle in the next few days to retrieve the situation. Centrebet is also trading a voter participation market on which 83.00 to 84.99 per cent is the shortest-priced option at $4. There is plenty of early support for the 77.00 to 78.99 per cent band, with its price tumbling from $7 to $4.50. Over 82 per cent of the electorate voted in the 1998 election that Schroder won comfortably. [Soccer | SOCCER] High scoring matches were the order of the day on last weekends English Premier League, and with seven of the ten favourites winning, punters got the better of us in the end. The wins by Arsenal and Liverpool were very expensive, particularly Arsenal, who were backed from $1.67 into $1.60. West Bromwich ($2.30) landed to winning bets of £5000 and €5000 when they defeated Southampton 1-0, but the 1-0 win by Leeds over Man United saw us stage a "comeback". There was a good early push for Leeds, from $2.80 into $2.65, but the late support was all for United. West Ham again disappointed big punters even though they were long priced outsiders in their match. Bets of £4000 and $5000 were placed on West Ham at $4.50, but we would still have been happy to pay as Tottenham, who won 3-2, were very heavily supported. The "big three", Arsenal, Liverpool and Man United are all at home this week, and all very short, and of course all three are lining up after a midweek Champions League fixture. A German punter has coupled up all three in doubles and trebles, outlaying $6000 on each combination, and we have also taken a bet of 135,000 DKK for Man United ($1.45) to beat Tottenham. West Ham fans have been active again with an early bet of $12,000 from Malaysia at $2.25 to defeat Man City. That was followed by a wager of $5200 from an Australian client, which has seen us cut the price to $2.15. There wasn't too much good news for Centrebet on Danish football last weekend. Six of the seven favourites won in Superligaen, with the only upset being AGF's 2-1 win over Midtjylland. One thing we have noticed over the past two weeks is the increased interest in Danish soccer from other countries. An English punter was the big winner of the week after placing $15,000 on AaB at $1.80 (won 1-0), $15,000 on FCK at $1.70 (won 1-0), and drove the last nail in with a $10,000 bet on Viborg ($2.60) who beat Esbjerg 6-0. The bigger money hasn't surfaced on this week's round as yet, although we have taken bets to the equivalent of $5000 for Brondby ($1.65) to beat Midtjylland and AaB ($1.65) to beat Farum. The semi finals of the Norwegian Cup are on this weekend in Norway. Valarenga have been the best backed side at $1.50 to defeat Aalesund, and while we have Stabaek favourites at $1.95 to win the other semi, we have taken over 40,000 NOK for Odd at $3. The women's Norwegian Cup games are also on this weekend, and both favourites, Roa ($1.75) and Kolbotn ($2.50) have been coupled up in a double of 60,000 NOK from a Norwegian client. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com
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