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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet
Capers
[Australian Rules | AUSTRALIAN RULES] Love them, or as most AFL fans do, hate them, Collingwood are in the Grand Final, and that has made for an enormous betting contest! The "Collingwood army" have been on the march this week and we have taken an absolute stack of small bets on a Collingwood upset at $4.50, and we are prepared to take on all comers at that quote! On Monday of this week, a Queensland client rang Centrebet, and we took our biggest ever AFL wager, $200,000 for Brisbane to win at $1.25. The odd part about this bet is that it is from the same punter who placed $50,000 on Brisbane a few weeks ago at $1.95! Now most people after having a bet like the first one would probably have a "saver" on Collingwood so that no matter who won, it was impossible for them to lose, but not this person, he is going all the way with Brisbane! On top of that, we had also taken bets of $30,000, $25,000 and $15,000 for Brisbane at $1.25, and even now, favourite backers are taking $1.20. Funny things happen in finals however, and normally most people that don't follow either team are happy to stick with the outsiders, and while Brisbane are definitely the "form" side of the competition, Collingwood did beat them in Melbourne by 3 points earlier in the year. All the normal betting options plus a host of new ones, will be available on the Grand Final. Brisbane players dominate the market to win the Norm Smith Medal, voted on the best afield in the final. As soon as betting opened on Monday, Michael Voss ($7), Simon Black ($8) and Justin Leppitsch ($19) were each backed to take out over $10,000, and the only Collingwood player to get any support at all was Paul Licuria at $15. Brisbane are a tough side, and one Victorian client has placed $1500 on Collingwood at $1.85 to receive more free kicks than Brisbane. There has been a staggering amount of interest in head to heads on "most disposals", and "goal kicking match ups", and while we tried to come up with a market on as many things as we could, we declined the request from a punter as to whether or not we would take a bet on a "streaker" in the final. I wonder what he had in mind? A few things worth mentioning on the final are the rules for betting on the game, and when next year's market will be out. As there is provision for the replay, any bets taken on the "Grand Final" (price, handicaps, margin bets, Norm Smith Medal etc) will be settled on the day, where as "premiership bets" would carry over until there is a winner of the premiership. Next year's betting will be open on Sunday, but a word of warning to the dozens of Adelaide Crows supporters who have rung this week, we also know Wayne Carey is going to Adelaide! One television network musn't have had a look at the fluctuations during Monday on the Brownlow Medal when reporting Simon Black "was an upset winner". Black's odds halved with most outlets on Monday, coming in from an isolated $12 to $6.50, at which price he was fourth favourite. Centrebet managed to "miss" Black for most of the season, with the biggest wager being $100 each way at $41, but we did take a $2000 each way bet at $9 over the weekend. Still and all, we did have a winning result as on Monday, up to a dozen players were backed. Favourite Luke Darcy ($3.50) had two $5000 bets and one for $4000 placed on him, Ben Cousins ($3.75) also had a $4000 wager, while the Kangaroos' Brent Harvey had $4000 worth of win bets at $21, and $6000 for the place, but was never really in contention. A long shot plunge on Adam Yze ($67 - $31) over the past two week's wasn't far short of the mark when he tied for third on 17 votes. As for the "leaked" e-mail last week that did the rounds of the country nominating Darcy the winner from Francou, it seems as though punters have had enough of the "leaks" as there wasn't any stampede when that document became available, and rightly so! [Rugby League | RUGBY LEAGUE] Both favourites eventually scored big victories in rugby league last weekend, and we were able to record a win even though both "covered" their respective handicaps. A $30,000 wager was placed on Cronulla conceding 3½ points start at $1.90, but such was the wave of money for St George Illawarra that the Sharks "eased" to -2½ points on Friday. Last week, we cast a doubt over the form of the Dragons, and we were very keen to get whatever we could out of them. Punters were very accommodating with bets of $13,600, $10,000 and $8000 going on the Dragons to win, and also two $10,000 bets with 2½ points start ($1.90). Sunday's game saw all the late money go on Newcastle as punters tried to convince themselves that the Knights could win without Andrew Johns. Newcastle firmed from $4 into $3.40, and attracted four separate $10,000 bets with 11 and 10 points start. Once the Roosters touched $1.30, we did take bets of $18,000 and $10,000, but the Ricky Stuart coached side were a much better result following their 38-12 win. Newcastle had a majority of play in the first half, but the half time score of 6-6 didn't display that point. In fact the Roosters scored five tries against the run of play, and that would be a worry to their supporters. We are now left with four teams in the title race, and a good case could be put up why all four can/can't win. Brisbane take on the Roosters Saturday night, and while most critics are saying the Broncos will win because they had a week off, we are not so sure. Of the last 10 sides that have had a "bye" in the finals series, seven have lost, and Brisbane had two matches this season where they returned from a week off, losing both, to St George-Illawarra and to New Zealand (at home!) Those stats, and Brisbane's patchy form, has been enough to tilt the scales in our opinion, and we have taken a stand against Brisbane, whilst still seeing money for the Roosters at $2. Early bets of $20,000, $16,700 and $10,000 have been placed on the Broncos at $1.85, but while the bigger money may be on Brisbane, the ratio of bets is split between the two. Sunday's match will see Cronulla go in as favourites, but again there is money for both sides. When betting opened on Sunday night, the first three bets taken were all $4000, and all for New Zealand at $2.25. Monday saw another $25,000 in bets come, mostly from New Zealand, for the Warriors to win, but it dried up significantly when it was announced that Jason Stevens had no case to answer in regards to a head high tackle. That piece of information sparked some activity on Cronulla, including a $9000 bet at $1.60, but we haven't heard from our big Sharks fan who has won a small fortune on them recently. Maybe he has gone over the Sharks poor preliminary finals record in which they lost all four appearances, three times after leading at half time. As far as the premiership goes, Brisbane remain favourites at $2.65 ahead of the Roosters at $3, then Cronulla ($4.25) and New Zealand ($5.25). The betting suggests it's open, and that's what we are seeing with solid money coming for all four. One tip though, if you fancy Brisbane, and the Brisbane Lions and the Broncos win this week, don't expect getting liberal odds in the NRL final as bookmakers around the country face massive pay outs on the Lions/Broncos combination. [Motor Bikes | MOTOR BIKES] Valentino Rossi won a rain-sodden Brazilian Grand Prix on Saturday. With the Rio Race brought ahead one day as apart from normal practice, some punters were caught out, and missed the opportunity to bet on the Grand Prix, but those that did were rewarded. Rossi started $1.36 favourite ahead of Max Biaggi at $4, and while we had a small win on the race, the other betting options weren't so good. The bad weather saw several casualties, and that was enough to catapult Kenny Roberts into third place, landing two bets of $200 on a top three finish at $51. Roberts also landed a $5000 winning bet ($1.80) to beat home John Hopkins, and Alexandre Barros had a $7000 bet placed on him at $1.75 to beat home Loris Capirossi, who really is out of form. Garry McCoy showed some improvement to qualify up the front of the grid, and is expected to be some sort of a threat when they race at Philip Island in October. Colin Edwards is $1.60 to win both Superbike races in Italy this week. Edwards is on a winning roll, and has a one point lead in the Riders Championship. We have already taken a $2000 bet for Edwards to win both races, and there is absolutely no interest in any other rider apart from the two favourites. [Cricket | CRICKET] Now that we are down to the business end of the ICC Champions Trophy, betting has gone up a notch or two on the finals. Last night (Wed), South Africa went in as slight underdogs at $2.05 against India. Some of the larger bets on the game were $15,000 and $12,000 for India at $1.80 and they scored a comfortable win. Australia are going into Friday's Semi Final, against the home side Sri Lanka, as red hot $1.53 favourites. We opened Australia at $1.57, but two of our Indian clients were all over that price, investing $38,000 between them. Sri Lanka seem very respectable odds at $2.40, and whoever wins this game is highly likely to be a short priced favourite in the final. [Rugby Union | RUGBY UNION] Randwick looked certain to land money against Sydney Uni last Saturday, but Uni Came from behind to snatch victory 26-20. After initially "laying" Uni at $1.65, when it was announced that Matt Rogers would play for Randwick, a flurry of bets saw Randwick backed from $2.20 into $2. Even that price was taken with a wager of $4000, and Randwick now find themselves up in an elimination final against Wests on Sunday. Randwick are pretty short at $1.35, and we have taken two early bets worth $4500 on them conceding 9 points start. The game between Eastwood and Sydney Uni on Saturday has a prize of a direct path into the Grand Final, and it's too close to call. We have posted Eastwood slight favourites at $1.70 with Uni at $2.10, and haven't struck a decent bet as yet. Last time these two met, Uni got home 24-20, so it all boils down to whether Eastwood have derived any benefit from the week off. [Basketball | BASKETBALL] The NBL season starts next week, but unfortunately due to the exodus of several big name players including Chris Anstey, Jason Smith, Mark Bradtke and Frank Drmic, and the demise of the Victorian Titans, we are not sure how popular the season will be. The Titans are now the Giants, and have had a complete clean out, hence the $101 we are offering for the title. We have posted West Sydney favourites at $3.15 on the strength of last season’s performances, and they will be aided by the inclusion of Willie Farley, Aaron Trahair and Sam MacKinnon is enough to bestow favoritism on them. Second picks are the Sydney Kings at $4.50, and while the Kings have been pretenders for several seasons, we think Brian Goorjian can turn them into serious contenders. The first significant bet taken was $4000 on Adelaide at $4.50, but if Brett Maher goes to Russia, and with Willie Farley gone, Adelaide will really struggle without the leagues most potent back court duo. The Townsville Crocodiles have had a substantial 5 figure bet placed on them to make the Grand Final Series at $3.75, and judging by an impressive pre season tour of Europe, the Croc's won't be far away again. The competition does look to be pretty even this season, and if one of last years "stragglers" was to improve, it might well be Canberra ($21), who with three imports available, only have to learn to win on the road. [Golf | GOLF] Tiger Woods rounded off his Ryder Cup preparation with a win in last weeks American Express Championship, but it was Retief Goosen who stole the show with a closing 10 under to only go down by one shot. As reported last week, not too many fancied the short quote ($2.75) on offer for Tiger, so it was provided us with a small bonus. The Ryder Cup is always a good betting event, and while the USA, the defending champions, are favourites at $1.50, the English course should suit the Europeans. We have already taken two $4000 bets for the USA at $1.50, but as there has been money for both Europe ($2.70) and the "tie" at $11, it's highly likely we will have to go chasing the American's out. Tiger is $2.50 to be top USA points scorer, and has been the one most punters want, and although a few others have been backed, including Davis Love ($7.50) and David Toms ($10), Phil Mickelson ($5.50) has been completely ignored. Sergio Garcia ($4) and Thomas Bjorn ($6.50) are our two biggest liabilities as far as European top points scorers are concerned, with Padraig Harrington ($5.50) the only other given any consideration. In the US, KJ Choi rewarded one Australian punter when he demolished the field to win the Tampa Bay Classic last week. The golf enthusiast from South Australia placed $300 on Choi at $41, for a win of $12,000, and then we also laid a bet of $5000 on Choi at the short odds of $1.12 prior to the last round when he led by five shots. In this week’s Texas Open, favourite and defending champion, Justin Leonard was backed to win just under $25,000 as soon as we posted him up at $8.50, and that price has been cut to $7. Leonard, who also won in 2000, won last year by two shots from JJ Henry, and we have also laid Henry to take out $15,000 this week at $41. Matt Kuchar shot four "sub 70" rounds last year to tie for second with Kelly, and looks a chance at $34. [Elections | ELECTIONS] The "betting polls" got it right when Gerhard Schroder beat long time opinion poll frontrunner Edmund Stoiber for the right to be the German Chancellor. The polls had been saying for a month that Schroder was unlikely to serve another term, which led to some heavy bets being placed on Stoiber, forcing his price into $1.45 at one stage. However, during the past week, we noticed some positive press for Schroder, and also a distinct lack of bets coming for Stoiber, saw most of the late betting activity go on Schroder, who started a short favourite at $1.40. Once again, the punters were right, and the pollsters were left wondering! [Soccer | SOCCER] We were badly battered and beaten by soccer punters last weekend, but we will go into battle again this week. Arsenal, Liverpool and Man United all won in England, and with those three teams coupled up for a small fortune in all combinations, Arsenal's goal in the 93rd minute proved to be extremely costly. The early game saw a $30,000 bet come from Singapore for Newcastle to win at $1.80, and that punter, and all others that jumped aboard as well, didn't have to sweat for too long as Newcastle scored after two minutes on the way to a 2-0 win over Sunderland. Two bets of $15,000, one from Australia, were placed on Aston Villa ($1.85) to beat Everton. Everton came from behind twice, but a goal at the 85th minute mark to Dion Dublin meant another big payout. The only good piece of news for the round was the 0-0 draw between West Ham and Man City. West Ham were one of the best backed sides of the season so far, including bets of $20,000 and $12,000 (twice), with those three bets coming from the Asian region. With another round of Champions League on midweek, things have been on the quiet side on this weeks round. Arsenal ($2.35) are away to Leeds, and a good chance to go "over", but we have only seen one early bet of any substance, that being £2000. Bets of €2500 and $4000 have been placed on Bolton ($2.20) to defeat Southampton, and apart from those two games, the only other good sized bet we have taken has been $6000 on the draw between Sunderland and Aston Villa at $3.25. There were two surprises in Denmark last weekend when AaB ($1.65) were beaten 3-1 by Farum, and Viborg ($1.40) were hammered 4-1 by Koge. Koge did land a winning bet of 5000 DKK ($AUD 1000) at $6.90, so it wasn't a total shock win to everybody. A bet of 100,000 DKK was placed on Esbjerg a $2.20 to defeat Odense, and they did a good job of doing just that when they won 5-0. It was similar with Brondby ($1.65), who won 4-0. Farum have displayed some good form over recent weeks, and while most Danish punters have jumped into the $1.85 Brondby against Farum this week, we have noticed that a couple of our "hard to beat" Danish clients have taken the $3.80 Farum and the $3.60 for the draw. FCK also look to be some risk at $2.05 when they play away to OB. Punters haven't really rushed to back FCK like they have been, so perhaps they can also be beaten. In Norway five of this weeks seven games are impossible to split on paper, and punters agree, with no "standout" bets on any of those games. No surprises for working out that Rosenborg will carry the bulk of punters hopes though, including one bet of 78,000 NOK ($AUD 15,500) at $1.60 to beat Bodo/Glimt. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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