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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES Apparently there were four games of AFL on last weekend, but in the aftermath of the first round of finals, all the talk has been of Port Adelaide's 'choking' performance against the Sydney Swans. We said last week that the Swans had been big drifters in the betting on this game, and that continued right up until game time, which saw Sydney get to $6.50. There was a bundle of money going into Port through multiples, as well as a $15,000 bet to win at $1.14, and three bets of $10,000 for them conceding 35½ points start. We always find a few who bet against the favourites, and there were two $500 bets for Sydney to win, as well as bets of $8000 and $5000 for the Swans with the handicap start. Nearly all of the betting on the match exotics was for Port, some of these including $10,000 on them to lead at quarter time ($1.35), and also $12,000 for Port to lead at half time and full time at $1.25. Those punters would have been stunned by the dismal display almost as much as the 40,000 strong crowd! While Port Adelaide once again seemed over-awed by playing finals football, Fremantle may also have fallen victim to the same problem when eliminated from the finals series by Essendon on Friday night. Fremantle started favourites at $1.70, but it was a massive betting game where the winners, Essendon, landed winning bets of $20,000 at $2.20 and $18,000 at $2.15. Big money also came for the Dockers, including $13,000 conceding 7 points start and a $25,000 double for Freo at -7½ into the Brisbane Bronco's at -19½ over St George in the NRL. Not only did neither cover the spread, both were beaten. The Adelaide Crows ensured it was a black weekend for Western Australian football when they eliminated the Eagles from the finals race on Saturday. The West Coast were also big drifters in the betting, eventually starting at $4.50 as punters ploughed into the short odds Adelaide. The handicap of -25½ was also taken by several of our bigger AFL clients, the largest of those bets being $8000. The Eagles were never in the race, going down 113-57. The clash between Collingwood and the Brisbane Lions on Saturday night saw an amazing late splurge of money for Brisbane. Collingwood had been solid fav's all week at around the $1.70 mark, but on Saturday, betting was so heavy for the Lions that they started marginal favourites at $1.88 ahead of Collingwood at $1.92. It would be fair to say that 75% of the bets that came on this game were for the Lions, but I suspect that a lot of those bets were 'anti Collingwood' rather than those who really thought Brisbane would win. There was plenty at stake here, and the game was played that way, with Collingwood victorious by 15 points in a low scoring affair. Brisbane would have been battered and bruised after that match, and with Michael Voss in grave doubt this week, there has been early money for Adelaide to beat the Lions at the Gabba on Saturday night. The $2.70 was taken when betting opened with a wager of $7000, and there has been continued support at $2.60. As yet, we haven't struck a blow with Brisbane at the $1.50, but they are such a popular side that we expect them to gather support as the game draws closer. In the other semi, punters seem to have put aside the 'choker' tag that Port Adelaide have inherited. We opened betting at $1.58 Port and $2.30 Essendon, but a barrage of support has seen Port slashed to $1.48, and seem destined to keep going down. The same has happened with premiership betting, with Port attracting a $5000 bet at $6 on Monday, and now we find punters taking the $5. They now have to win three 'sudden death' matches, which means they will have to defy their very ordinary finals record. Collingwood are the new flag favourites, and this week two $4000 bets have been placed on the Magpies at $2.50. Port share the second line of betting with Brisbane and Sydney at $5, and while there has only been lukewarm interest in Brisbane. fans of the Swans have been active for the first time this season, and with Michael O'Loughlin back next week, maybe the Swans can be there on the last Saturday in September. Swans fans have also launched an attack on Adam Goodes to win the Brownlow. Now we have said before how amazing it is that players who perform well during the finals series always gather support for the Brownlow even though the finals don’t count. Goodes had a 'blinder' at the weekend, and that, on top of Barry Hall's post match comments to 'get on Goodes for the Brownlow' has seen nearly $6000 in each way bets come for Goodes this week, forcing his price from $13 into $9. He is now clearly our worst result, and the Victorian who backed him to win $100,000 with us at the start of the season at $201 would be on very good terms with himself. RUGBY LEAGUE Brisbane's 2003 season has gone from bad to worse following last weekends one point loss to the Dragons, and even though they have limped into the finals series, only the most supreme optimist would think that the Bronco's can go on and win the title. St George Illawarra fielded a reserve grade side in last week’s match, which saw them go in as rank outsiders at $6.50, or getting 20 points start. Just like the Swans in their heroic win, there were some who bet against the obvious, with one Sydney punter placing $2000 on the Dragons to win, but in the main, most betting was focused on a Brisbane win. That loss knocked the wind out of the sails of a lot of punters, but those who soldiered on into the weekend games eventually got the better of us when the last six favourites won, with five of those covering the spread. The only one that didn't was New Zealand (-16½), and even in that game we had to wait until the dying seconds for West Tigers to score to reduce the deficit to 16 points. The Bulldogs scored a workmanlike 28-14 point win over the Sharks on Saturday, much to the delight of those who conceded the 9 and 10 points start. The Sharks always looked a chance of getting inside the handicap, but the big money (three $10,000 bets) was spot on when the Bulldogs scored a late try to put the issue beyond doubt. The Melbourne v Manly game was one of those rare occasions where there was unlimited money for both sides on the handicap, and even though the Storm easily covered that spread on their 40-10 victory, we recorded a small win. The support had been solid for Melbourne at -19½, but a group of Sydney punters placed a total of $34,000 on Manly with the start which saw the handicap settle at 18½ when the game started. We also took a bet of $11,600 from New Zealand that the game total would go over 55½ points, and for the first time on ages, a Manly game fell under the allocated game total. Sunday saw all three fav’s win, although at different stages it looked possible all three would be beaten. Parramatta had to beat Penrith by 28 points to make the eight, and when they sped to a 12-0 lead early, we were giving ourselves a pat on the back for taking Penrith on. We should have known better as the Panthers reeled the Eels in to lead 24-16 at half time, before going on to win 40-22. Canberra also led in their match, but injuries to Brad Drew and Mark McLinden saw the Roosters make up a six point leeway at half time to win 23-16. We thought that the $1.80 we were offering for the Roosters would have received more backing than it did, but having said that there were three significant bets totaling $26,000 that came for the Roosters to win. The Raiders were in some demand when the betting touched $2.05, but the largest of those bets was only $4000. We also decided to bet against Newcastle covering a 6 point handicap against North Qld, and with ten minutes to go that we looked set for a victory there, only to see two late converted Knights tries take the winning margin to 8 points. Fortunately, there wasn't a lot of interest in this game as Newcastle were already assured of seventh spot on the ladder, and the Cowboys were finished for the season. Round one of the finals is upon us, and all home sides are the favourites. That would normally see all one way traffic for the home side, but in the first final, Canberra v Melbourne, there has been slightly more wagered on Melbourne than Canberra, who play at home. We posted Canberra at $1.60, or -4½ points, but the first bet, $16,000, was for Melbourne with the start. The Raiders had a tough encounter against the Roosters last Sunday, and the five day break, along with the fact that Melbourne have won both previous matches this season, points towards a Melbourne win. The Bulldogs have had trouble with New Zealand in both their matches this year, losing the first 24-20, and then coming from behind to win the second 18-12. Both of those were in New Zealand, and although the Warriors have named Stacey Jones, a rather large question mark must be hanging over his fitness. The Dogs are $1.35, or -8½ in this game, and although quiet, the early betting has been for both sides. The Roosters are $1.30 to end Newcastle’s campaign, and punters think they can do it. The $1.30 has been coupled up in doubles with the Bulldogs, and the -9½ points that the Roosters have to concede was taken by two NSW punters with $5000 apiece as soon as betting opened. The Knights will need to improve 100% on what they showed against North Qld last week, and we doubt they can do that. The same applies to Brisbane, who find themselves at $2.60 against Penrith on Sunday. The Broncos have lost seven in a row, and although we all find it hard to believe that Penrith have lifted themselves back from the bottom of the ladder to be minor premiers, how can you tip against them? Last weeks loss to the Dragons hasn't entirely disposed of all Brisbane's followers in the punting ranks as we have noticed a lot of small bets for them to win this week, but come Sunday, we fully expect that the bigger money will be for Penrith. The Bulldogs remain title favourites at $2.75, ahead of the Roosters at $3.35, with Penrith still 'unwanted' at $5.25. TENNIS The US Open, the last Grand Slam of the year, didn't pack too many surprises when Andy Roddick and Justine Henin Hardenne won their respective titles. Both of these players were title favourites when the first round began two weeks ago, but in Henin Hardenne's case, punters were able to get practically the same price on the day of the final ($2.65) that was available before the tournament started, which was $2.75! This all came about as a result of her three hour semi final win over Jennifer Capriati, when Capriati had Henin Hardenne down for the count, but fighting severe cramps the Belgian came back to win. She then spent some time on a drip as she tried to regain some energy for the final. and while all this was going on, punters were backing Kim Clijsters from $1.55 into $1.45 to take out her first major. Clijsters has failed before under the pressure of big finals, but punters put those facts aside, even backing Clijsters to win in straight sets at $2.50. The 'live' betting on the match gave us an opportunity to 'balance the book' as Henin was layable at around the $2.10 mark prior to the first set ending, and once she jumped to a lead in the second set, nearly $15,000 in bets were taken on Henin at $1.20 before betting closed. In the men’s final, we were tied up with Andy Roddick as he had been a solid favourite since betting opened three weeks ago. The largest pre-post bet had been $10,000 at $3.50, and he opened at $1.47 in the final. The initial flurry of bets was for Roddick, including one of €10,000 from Austria, but in the hours leading up to the start of the match, there was a swing towards Juan Carlos Ferrero, so much so the Roddick was our preferred option in the finish. Even a straight sets win for the American ($3.75) was ignored, and that defied a trend in finals of people backing favourites to make a clean sweep. For the first time in 21 years, the top eight men’s seeds made it through to the last round of sixteen, and with the initial two favourites playing off in the women’s final, we were more than happy to finish the US Open with a slight credit. GOLF Bob Tway became the eighth player over 40 to win on the PGA tour this year when winning the Bell Canadian Open. In what has been an incredible mix of Rookies, Veterans and Top Ten ranked players, Tway continued the trend with his eighth tour victory, but more importantly his first win since the 1995 MCI Classic. Tway defeated another veteran, Brad Faxon on the third play-off hole, after Faxon hit a wayward drive and could only finish with a double bogey. Well supported players such as Singh, Weir and Funk, all put themselves in a position to win on the final day but it was Tway and Faxon who closed best. This week we head to Illinois, where another veteran, J.P Hayes defends his John Deere Classic title he won last year. Hayes is value at $67 but punters have warmed to class players Davis Love, $8000 at $6.50, and Vijay Singh, $5000 at $7.50. Also well tried have been veterans Fred Funk at $21 and Kirk Triplett at $21, both of whom have form on the track and are probably playing in career best form. It should be an interesting tournament as Love attempts to consolidate his position on top of the PGA money list. On the European tour, Ernie Els closed with a seven under 65 to street the field by six shots in winning his fourth European event of the year, the Omega European Masters. Els consolidated his position on top of the Volvo Order of Merit and punters bank accounts in winning this event. One astute client placed $8000 on Els at $5 and had few worries in the final round as he cruised to victory. Defending champion Robert Karlsson showed his liking for the course finishing fourth while New Zealander Michael Campbell closed with a solid 66 to finish second. This week we head to France for the Trophée Lancôme where Alex Cejka has elected not to defend his title. Heading the betting is 2000 winner Retief Goosen at $8.50 while Harrington, Rose and Poulter have all been backed to win over $40000 in an event where form players such as Romero and Westwood could figure in the finish. On other tours Australian Karrie Webb showed a welcome return to form in winning her first event of the year, the John Q Hammons Hotel Classic. It is her first win since last years British Open and signals the end of her leanest run since joining the tour. We head to Sweden this week for the esteemed Solheim Cup, and the USA have been installed favourites at $1.90. Early money however has been for Europe at $2.25, and being led by Annika Sorenstam on home ground should prove difficult to beat. This event is the ultimate in pressure so the home crowd could prove pivotal in the Europeans attempt to win back the Cup they believe truly belongs to them. MOTOR RACING Michael Schumacher has now gone five races without a win, and with the F1 season drawing to a close, it will be interesting to see if the improvements that Ferrari claim they have made to their cars have any impact on this weeks Italian Grand Prix at Monza. The German is engaged in a titanic battle at the top of the Championship table, holding a one point lead over Juan Pablo Montoya, who in turn is one point ahead of Kimi Raikonnen. Montoya is now title favourite at $1.70, but looking back through the bets taken so far this season reveals that a few took advantage of the big offers available early in the year. After the Austrian Grand Prix (seven races ago), Montoya was at $101 when he was 23 points behind Schumacher. There were some bets placed on Montoya at that time, including one from Finland, with that punter staring a €4000 win in the face from an outlay of €40. Now, it is Montoya’s chance to take the lead at Monza, which is Ferrari's home track. He is favourite at $2.80, and having been on pole here the last two years, with a victory in 2001, it's not surprising that punters want to be on him. There has been a lot of talk over the past two weeks about the McLaren and Williams' teams use of Michelin tyres, claiming that both teams should be disqualified if they win, and that certainly hasn't helped the betting on this race. Although our race betting is decided on the 'podium finish' after each race, let’s hope that the Drivers Championship isn't decided in the protest room. ICE HOCKEY The Finnish SM Liga's new season begins tonight (Thurs), and while the first round of any competition is normally very quiet, that has not been the case on the ice hockey. The betting game of the round is Tappara v Ilves. Tappara's pre season form has been ordinary, and it was our intention to risk them. The $2.40 was taken early, with two of the larger bets being €2000, but over the past two days the money has arrived for both the draw ($4.75) and Ilves at $2.15. Several of our more astute Finnish ice hockey clients have bet against Tappara winning, so we are happy to get more out of them. JYP ($2.55) are away to Saipa, and have also met with big support. After opening at $2.85, bets of €3000 and €1200 forced a major price change, and money continues to come at that price. Jokerit are favourites to win the title at $2.70, and are $1.90 to post a first up win against HIFK. Karpat have been backed to win over €50,000 to win the title, and are in from $17 to $6.50. They don't play tonight, but we will be watching their first up performance very closely at the weekend. HORSE RACING Betting is open on the Cox Plate, with both Melbourne Cup and Caulfield Cup betting due to be open next Monday. Lonhro is $3.25 to win the Cox Plate, and following on from some impressive wins in Sydney, he deserves to be favourite in Australia's premier weight for age event. The only niggling doubt about any horse coming to Melbourne is that most have difficulty adapting to the Strath-ayre surface at Moonee Valley, but I am sure that trainer John Hawkes will ensure that Lonhro has ample opportunities to handle the Valley track. Defier was placed in the Cox Plate last year, and although he hasn't won this campaign, he is racing more like a stayer this time in. He is at $7.50 second elect, just ahead of Grand Armee at $9. Following the early betting on the international horses is always relevant on these big races, especially the Melbourne Cup, but there has already been a lot of early interest for English stayer Falbrav ($11) and Germany's Paolini ($34) in the Cox Plate. While there hasn't been any big bets for either recorded, there have been enough small bets placed to suggest that their followers think they can take the Cup home. After a few days of betting, we should be able to report next week on the early moves in the Melbourne Cup. It is also worth pointing out that Centrebet offers a price service on all major races each Saturday from Sydney and Melbourne, with betting available from 10am onwards. FOOTBALL Did you lose money on last weekend's European Championship qualifying matches? If so, then maybe soccer betting is not for you. Favourites won 16 of the 20 qualifying games played across the continent and, hand on heart, one could count one result only - Northern Ireland's draw versus Ukraine in Donetsk - as a genuine surprise even though Bosnia-Herzegovina, Iceland and Russia exceeded our expectations against Norway, Germany and Ireland respectively. Although the failure of World Cup silver medallists Germany to defeat Group Five foes Iceland in Reykjavik annoyed some punters just as much as it cheesed off Rudi Völler - he launched into a foul-mouthed attack on ARD media commentators during a television interview after the match - most football fans are aware of their shortcomings, particularly in the final third of the pitch, and did not take the bait at tight odds. Czech Republic, Netherlands and Italy, who punters deduced correctly would prove too strong for Group Nine rivals Wales in Milan, formed the backbone of many successful multi bets, with the win treble on the three teams paying in excess of even money. Other sides for whom we saw considerable cash included England, Finland and Scotland, while there was no shortage of takers for odds of 1.01 about Sweden beating San Marino in Gothenburg. Zlatan Ibrahimovic scored twice in Sweden's 5-0 home romp as San Marino completed their predictably bad campaign without a goal. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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