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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES In what looms as a promoter's dream, the AFL has ended up with three interstate sides still standing in the battle for the AFL flag. If the form holds up, it's quite possible we could have our first ever final without a Victorian side in it, although Collingwood may have other ideas about that. Both favourites won last weekend, each easily covering the allocated handicaps, and while that would normally spell disaster, a lot of punters throwing rugby league games into their multiples, helped us get out of weekend relatively unscathed. The biggest of those multiple bets for the weekend was a $60,000 wager at $3.15 that included the Brisbane Lions, and the Bulldogs and Canberra in the NRL, with both league sides losing. There were numerous sizeable bets that included the Bulldogs, however one multi punter stuck to what he knows best and had $20,000 on the Lions and Port Adelaide both to win at $2.10. The Brisbane v Adelaide game saw some drastic changes once Michael Voss was named. Up until that point in time, less than $500 had been placed on Brisbane, who had drifted out to $1.50. With Voss in, the Lions firmed to $1.40 at kickoff, but Adelaide were still very easy to lay, including a late bet of $12,000 at $2.75, and bets of $8000 and $6600 with 16 points start. They looked a chance when only trailing by 11 points at the last change, but with Brisbane returning to their best form in the last quarter, helped by some very warm weather, the Lions powered away to win by 42 points. The 'rumour mill' had half the Port Adelaide side out with the 'flu’ in Saturday night's clash with Essendon, and even though they all played, and in atrocious conditions, Port belted Essendon by 39 points. There was plenty of money for Essendon, but we went out of our way to lay Port given the rumours and the weather. All up, five separate bets of $20,000 were placed on Port for the week, and on Saturday, three separate bets of $10,000 to beat the 15½ point handicap were also taken. Not a good result, but that happens! Now we do have a race on our hands, and a good case can be put up for all to win the flag. Collingwood are the fav's at $2.75, narrowly ahead of Brisbane at $2.80. The Lions have had few large wagers placed on them through the year, including $40,000 at $2.75, and two $20,000 bets at $5 and $4.75. Port Adelaide are next in line at $3.70, with the biggest bet on them being $60,000 at $3 taken three weeks ago, with Sydney the outsiders at $6.25. The Swans have plenty of admirers though, with one bet alone of $10,000 coming this week at $6.50. In the matches, Collingwood opened at $1.65 to beat Port ($2.20) and Brisbane at $1.50 to beat Sydney at $2.55. While a lot of parochial support has been coming for both underdogs, the signs are there that the fav's are going to meet with big support. Three early bets totaling close to $18,000 were placed on Collingwood before they firmed into $1.60, and the handicap of -8½ has also been popular. Sydney supporters are entitled to think their side can win after beating the Lions twice already this year, but we can't strike it for a big single bet on the Swans, just dozens of small bets. The Lions have already been couple up in doubles with Collingwood to the tune of $60,000, so while it does seem under the odds, the $1.50 is certain to disappear. Monday will see the Brownlow Medal awarded, and we had another of those 'leaks' last week with Robert Harvey. Harvey had a good year, and was at $13, but an e-mail did the rounds of the country that said he wins the medal by two votes from James Hird. Everyone likes to have an opportunity to put one over a bookie, and we have laid Harvey to lose over $60,000 since the leak, and he is now into $6. We think it's rubbish (remember the same thing happened last year), but some people have raised the point that if someone consciously placed a bet when they 'knew' the result, is that fraud? Interesting point! Anyway, most have ignored that leak, and Michael Voss has attracted a $4000 bet this week which now sees him as $3.75 favourite ahead of Nathan Buckley ($4.25) and Gavin Wanganeen at $4.50. Money continues to come from NSW for Adam Goodes, so it's a real betting contest. While final's games don't count, if Sydney beat Brisbane on Saturday, then we expect Goodes to be the big firmer. For the record, our tip is Wanganeen. RUGBY LEAGUE While you might look at last week's rugby league results and think that with two outsiders winning it would have been a 'fill up' for bookies, the talk in the industry suggests that wasn't the case with nearly all reporting a losing weekend. Injuries have made it hard for Canberra over the past few weeks, and it was only some aggressive chasing that saw us get out of their 12 point loss to Melbourne with a profit. As reported last week, all the early money had been for the Storm, including $16,000 with four points start. It was obvious by Thursday that Canberra were going to be hard to sell, and even a move out to $1.65 or -3½ didn't stir up much action. Late Friday it all started to happen, however we continued to see money for Melbourne. The Storm had several bets of $4000 placed on them on Friday at $2.20, but a concerted push from Sydney punters, including $24,000 and $15,000 at -3½ points, saw the Storm go in as a winner in our book. Like Canberra, it was a hard slog to get any decent money for the Bulldogs, who were comprehensively beaten 48-22 by New Zealand. We didn't have any difficulty laying the Kiwi's, who came in from an opening $3.25 to start at $2.60. Most of the money was from New Zealand, with an Auckland resident claiming us for a $25,000 bet on the Warriors with eight points start at $1.90. Once again it was up to a handful of Sydney clients to help balance the books, and in those bets were $16,000 for the Bulldogs to win, and two $10,000 bets when the handicap got into 7½. Both favourites won on Sunday, but with a late rally for Brisbane against Penrith, the day wasn't too bad for us. There was some money for Newcastle to beat the Roosters at $3.65, but most money wagered on the Roosters had been placed through multiples, apart from two bets totaling $27,000 taken on Sunday for them at -9½ points. The game was as good as over early, and although both sides only scored one converted try each in the second half, the Roosters ran out easy winners, 36-8. We couldn't find any valid reason to think Brisbane could break a seven game losing streak against Penrith, but punters thought they could, and when they led 18-4 in a wind assisted first half, they looked like they were right. The worry with Penrith has been there defence, but to their credit, the Panthers kept Brisbane scoreless for the last 50 minutes to win 28-18. This was one of the bigger betting games of the year, and the Panthers attracted many big bets to win at around the $1.45 mark, but the only significant bets on them at the handicap were $17,000 and $10,000 taken on Sunday. However a late spurt for Brisbane with the start saw in excess of $50,000 placed on the Bronco's with 6½ points start in the 30 minutes leading up until the start of the game. For us, and those who took that handicap, it was an exciting final ten minutes of play as Brisbane kept peppering away at the Penrith defence, but they couldn't penetrate it and went down by 10 points. This week, New Zealand and the Bulldogs go in as favourites to progress to the next round of the finals series. Both games are at Aussie Stadium, with Canberra up against NZ on Saturday night, and the other game on Sunday. The Warriors had plenty of detractors before the season started, but we noticed a huge surge in money coming from New Zealand, and that has continued. The $4.75 was taken to win the competition, and we have taken close to $20,000 late this week for them at $4.50, while bets of $15,000 and $10,000 have come across the Tasman for the Warriors to cover a 10½ point spread. Some money has gone on Canberra at $3.60, and with the start, but they have delayed naming their run on side due to injury concerns, and punters aren't prepared to bet unless the Raiders have a full squad available. In the other game, the loss suffered by the Bulldogs last week has been passed over in preference to the 50-4 flogging that the Doggies gave the Storm a few weeks back. We posted the Dogs at $1.33, or -9½, but the first $15,000 wagered on the game saw only $2000 for Melbourne. As this is the last game of the weekend (AFL included), and knowing that 'late' favourites always shorten, we have taken the step of cutting the Bulldogs into $1.30, looking for some Melbourne money. As yet, that hasn't happened. TENNIS Australia go in as favourites when they tangle with Switzerland, or as some say Roger Federer, in a Davis Cup semi-final beginning in Melbourne on Friday. After an injury scare early in the week, Mark Philippoussis has joined team-mate Lleyton Hewitt as our likely singles players in the best of five rubbers. Hewitt's form leading up to the US Open hadn't been the best, but he showed enough to suggest that his best wasn't that far away, and with a two week break behind him, we think that the Aussies will justify the $1.25 quote that we have bestowed upon them. It won't be easy though as Federer has been in good form, and will be a strong chance to win both his singles matches for the Swiss. The $1.25 has been taken with a couple of substantial wagers, including $10,000 and $7000 (both from Victoria), but the Swiss have been solid in betting with some of our Italian tennis clients taking the $3.70, the largest of those bets being €1000. Match betting will be open later today. GOLF Fijian Vijay Singh zoomed to the top of the US money list winning his third PGA event of the year at the weather delayed John Deere Classic, with a flawless final round 65 which included six birdies. The four shot win would have come at a price to a very disconsolate Australian punter who has backed Singh to win $50,000 at his last six starts only to switch to Davis Love, whose last win came at The International in the first week of August. Love got off to a slow start but Singh opened with a five under par 65 to always be in the hunt. Singh is now determined to finish on top of this years money list and is trailed by Love and Woods, either of whom will require a strong Fall Finish to overtake the in form Singh. The tours top players are having a well earned break after an arduous schedule, as we head to the East Coast for the 84 Lumber Classic of Pennsylvania. Best backed have been Robert Allenby, with one wager of $4000 at $16 while DiMarco has been backed to win $25,000 at $12. These are the two form players at this track, with DiMarco being successful in 2000 and Allenby 2001, while Allenby also was runner-up last year behind Dan Forsman. This will be an even tournament, with players of the calibre of Byrd, Flesch, McCarron and Mediate all in good form. On the European tour, Retief Goosen led all the way to record his ninth Tour victory in winning the Trophée Lancôme in France. He opened the betting as a solid $8.50 fav and after a devastating opening round 63 he never relinquished the lead much to the joy of his supporters. Goosen has shown a liking for leading all the way in tournaments as he showed in capturing the 2001 US Open, but it was not without some anxious moments as McGinley moved to within one stroke on the back nine. A double bogey to the Irishman on sixteen put pay to his chances as Goosen went on to win by four shots from McGinley and Frenchman Raphael Jacquelin. This week we head to Germany for the Linde German Masters, an event Bernhard Langer has held a mortgage on over the last 15 years. Favourite is the in-form Goosen at $9 from Darren Clarke at $10 while best backed have been Harrington, Cejka and Poulter all backed to win over $40,000. There is no event on the LPGA tour this week, however Europe had a demonstrative victory in winning the Solheim Cup for the third time last week. From the opening day the Europeans showed they were more adept than their American counterparts at the Foursomes format taking a 3½ to ½ lead on the first morning. The USA fought back in the afternoon to trail 4½ to 3½ however the European domination continued on the second day to lead 9½ to 6½ heading to the final day of singles matches. The USA required a minimum of eight points from the twelve matches, a task which may have been difficult but not beyond them as they had proven superior in previous years. However it was evident early the European domination was to continue as they closed out the Cup in the twenty-third match when Annika Sorenstam closed out Angela Stanford 3 and 2. Annika Sorenstam and Suzann Pettersen were best performed of the Europeans while Julie Inkster showed why she is such a favourite with the USA Captains as she shared the honours with Cristie Kerr. MOTOR RACING The Ferrari's showed dramatic improvement in last week's Italian Grand Prix with Michael Schumacher winning and Ruben's Barrichello finishing third. This was however Ferrari's home track, and with two races remaining, the 'experts' think that the Williams' cars will be better suited to the circuits in the USA and Japan. Michael Schumacher holds a 3 point lead (82) over Juan Pablo Montoya (79), and then another 4 points away is Kimi Raikonnen. It looks to be a race in two, and that is reflected in the betting with Schumacher at $1.67, Montoya at $2.15, then a big gap to Raikonnen at $16. In the Italian race, Schumacher qualifying quickest wasn't a good result for Centrebet. Three bets of €200 were placed on the German at $4.50, and we took another bet of 10,000 NOK ($AUD 2000) at $3 after the first session. Schumacher had been available at $4.25, but it wasn't until he qualified quickest that the serious money came. The largest of those was €4000 from Austria at $2.30, but Montoya also drew support at $2.70. Those Australians who have stuck with Mark Webber throughout the season picked up a little more money when he was again amongst the points, finishing in seventh place. Lots of small bets were placed on Webber to finish in the top eight at $2.25, and he would be more than happy with the 17 points he has amassed so far this year. MOTOR BIKES The MotoGP action takes a break from Europe with Brazil being the first of four non-European races coming up in just five weeks. This weekend's race is also on a Saturday as opposed to the normal timeslot of Sunday. Valentino Rossi, after an uncharacteristic mid season dip in form, now appears back to his awesome best winning the last two races in Portugal and the Czech Republic. Sete Gibernau is now 46 points behind Rossi (25 pts for a win), and with only five races remaining, he needs Rossi to have a few unplaced rides if he is to have any chance to win the title. With that in mind, it's possible a little dangerous taking the short odds Rossi in case he just tries to 'protect' his lead, but he hasn't done so in previous seasons. Just the same, Rossi has been a little easy in the betting, out to $1.50 from $1.45, with Gibernau ($7) and Max Biaggi ($8) being the best backed. FOOTBALL Sometimes it pays to support your local team and sometimes it pays to oppose them. Just ask two of our Scandinavian punters who chanced their arm on 12-leg soccer accumulators and, thanks to some neighbourly assistance from AGF and Byåsen respectively, turned small change into big bucks. An Aarhus woman pocketed just a few coins less than 100,000 Danish Kroner after forecasting the results of 12 European football matches, including AGF's home game versus Herfølge. She predicted victories for AaB ($2.05), AGF ($1.95), Barcelona ($1.80), Brøndby ($1.72), Fenerbahce ($1.35), Internazionale ($1.95), Juventus ($1.85), Manchester City ($1.85), Parma ($1.70), Roma ($1.36) and Sporting ($1.30), plus a half-time lead for Silkeborg ($1.48). A Trondheim man staked nearly five times more money on his bet but made an almost identical profit from his once-in-a-lifetime success. He forecast triumphs for Austria Wien ($1.45), Fredrikstad ($1.45), Germany ($1.30), Manchester United ($1.60), Marseille ($1.40), Nybergsund ($1.60), Rangers ($1.16), Real Madrid ($1.33), Roma ($1.33), Skjetten ($1.85 minus two goals), Ullensaker/Kisa ($1.85 minus two goals) and Valencia ($1.45). If you are wondering on which game he made use of his local expertise, look at the Nybergsund fixture. They beat Byåsen. How difficult is it to predict the outcomes of a dozen soccer matches without making a mistake? Grab a scientific calculator and input the simple equation of three to the power 12. Press the correct buttons and 531,441 will appear on your mathematical instrument's liquid crystal display. There are more than half a million possible combinations when football punters try to forecast the results of 12 games. Think about that next time that you attempt to go through, say, the English Division One programme. It is harder than it looks and, for that reason, we pass on our sincere congratulations to the Aarhus woman and Trondheim man. Just do not expect to strike it lucky again. We will offer you jobs as soccer odds compilers if you do! The Champions League kicked off on Tuesday and, unsurprisingly given their Spanish Primera División demolition of Valladolid, there was a groundswell of support for Real Madrid ahead of the first (and last) group phase of this season's competition. European football experts, particularly those with a love of Italian soccer, may disagree but our punters think that English plutocrats Chelsea and German kings Bayern München are the teams most likely to prevent the Meringues whipping up a storm in UEFA's most prestigious club tournament over the next seven months. Fifty-to-one outsiders before Roman Abramovich's Russian revolution, Chelsea began their Group G campaign versus Sparta Praha at a quarter of their original odds. Most punters betting on the eight sections placed their faith in the various group favourites, although there was significant money for PSV to topple AEK, Deportivo La Coruña and Monaco. That is all until next week when we will review the Champions League action, update you with all of the major market moves and chronicle other betting stories from around the world. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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