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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES And then there were two.... After both recording hollow victories last weekend, Collingwood and Brisbane line up in this years Grand Final, with Magpie fans hoping that the replay of last years final will see their beloved side come away with the Premiership Cup. This already is shaping as the biggest betting Grand Final we have ever had, and it would be no surprise to see either side win, by a small or big margin, it's been one of those sorts of years. Collingwood earned the right to play in the Grand Final by destroying Port Adelaide on Saturday. Not surprisingly, there was big money placed on both matches, and Collingwood drew bets of $25,000, and four bets of $20,000 at around the $1.60 mark. A new Sydney client opened his account with a winner by placing $15,000 on Collingwood to beat the 9 point handicap, but money from South Australia for Port saw us come out of the match marginally behind. The Swans v Brisbane match was the biggest betting game of the year, and the final result of a 44 point victory for Brisbane was a more than handy result due to some heavy action on our exotic bets. Both sides attracted big support to win by less than 24½ points, with the Swans also having a $10,000 bet placed on them to be in front at half time as well as at the end. We took several $4000 bets for the Swans to win at $2.55 and $2.60, as well as two $10,000 bets with 14½ points start. It was amazing how much money we were taking from New South Wales for a Swans win, which included two $5000 bets to win the flag after we took a $10,000 bet early in the week at $6.50. The Lions have a big supporter base in the punting ranks, and they didn't forget to bet either, including one bet of $30,000 for Brisbane to win at $1.50. Whilst the Lions were ahead by 3 points at the third break, they looked completely 'gone', and betting at three quarter time was dominated by the Swans. We were in a good position to lay the Swans, and close to $10,000 was placed on them at $2. We are still trying to work out what happened in the last quarter which saw a 'tired' Lions team get rejuvenated, and run out easy winners, very similar to what they did the previous week against Adelaide. So now it all comes down to one game. We posted both Collingwood and Brisbane at $1.90 on Sunday. A bet of $60,000 came from a Victorian punter for Collingwood, but we left the price there. With Anthony Rocca out, and such a strong 'anti-Collingwood' feeling around the country, we think that the Lions are going to be very easy to lay later in the week. Dozens of exotic bets will also be available on the big one, with the most popular of those likely to be the Norm Smith Medal. Nathan Buckley was backed to win $8000 as soon as we listed the betting at $6, but there is also plenty of interest in Jason Akermanis ($11) and Simon Black at $11. It is virtually impossible for a backman to win the Norm Smith, so punters are looking to the midfielders. Buckley won the medal last year, with most thinking it should have gone to Michael Voss, but with Voss unlikely to play the full game, there has only been lukewarm support for him at $9. Punters were spot on when three of the best backed players tied for the Brownlow Medal on Monday night. Nathan Buckley was the target of a nationwide plunge over the weekend which continued into Monday. Buckley came in from $4 to start public elect at $2.75, with the largest bet taken being $10,000 at $3.25. Mark Riccuito was also well supported on Monday, coming in from an isolated $15 to start at $8, and Adam Goodes was sensationally backed two weeks ago at $11, but on the day got out to $13. In the end, the winning trio comprised three of the top six in the betting, so we were more than pleased to come out narrowly behind. One has to spare a thought for the Victorian punter who placed $500 on Adam Goodes before the season started at $201 (to win $100,000), as when team-mate Michael O'Loughlin got only one vote in the last round, it looked certain Goodes would get the three and win. However Goodes only got two votes, to force a three way tie. As is the case with any event where there are multiple winners, the payout is divided by the number of winners, so in this instance the punter collected $33,500, still not a bad night’s work. To all those punters who thought that they were armed with information that they could bet on a result that was already known (the 'leak' on Robert Harvey), what can we say? RUGBY LEAGUE New Zealand and the Bulldogs rounded off a good weekend for favourite backers on the two Aussie football codes when they won the two NRL finals. For the record, all four favourites won, and it was only the New Zealand Warriors who couldn't also cover the handicap in their 17-16 win over Canberra. As it was, the Warriors were extremely fortunate to win the game as Canberra's Jason Bulgarelli missed what looked to be a simple try four minutes out from full time which would have seen Canberra win. That would have meant a massive turnaround for Centrebet as a fortune was coupled up with all four favourites, but like Canberra, our luck was out. The trend through the finals series has been that there has been money for the underdogs with the handicap start, and this game wasn't any different. One Sydney client placed bets totaling $25,000 on Canberra with 10½ points start, as well as $8000 to win at $3.75. One of our many New Zealand account holders placed $37,000 on the Warriors on Friday at $1.28, but the push for Canberra saw the Warriors touch $1.33 on Saturday. Along with that bet from NZ came three $10,000 bets for the Warriors when the handicap moved into -9½, along with a bet of $9,000 for the Warrioirs to be ahead at half time and full time at $1.67, which we got to hang on to when the half time score was 10-10. While the Warriors weren't that impressive, they are still in the race, and so are those who bombarded us last week at the $4 for the Warriors to win the title. New Zealand were backed to win over $75,000 last week, but it seemed under the odds at the time. This week they are $3.50, and still have to overcome Penrith and then the winner of the Roosters v Bulldogs game, so the $4 surely wasn't any spoil! In the other game from last weekend, the Bulldogs, who have had the 'wood' on Melbourne in the past, did it again in winning 30-0. In keeping with the other finals, there was some money for Melbourne to win at $3.50, and also with 9½ points start, but on game day, punters could only see the Bulldogs winning. Some of the bets taken included $13,800 to win at $1.30, and $17,000 and $15,000 for the Bulldogs conceding the start. It was obvious early that we were in big trouble as Melbourne were completely overwhelmed. This week, we are faced by the clash that many thought would be the Grand Final itself, that being the Roosters up against the Bulldogs. The record between these two this year stands at the Bulldogs 2-0, but in the second of those matches back in round 13, the Roosters were missing players due to State of Origin duty. There used to be a theory that the team who had the week off were at a disadvantage, but three of the last four have won, so we can probably lay that idea to rest. It is already shaping as a great betting game, with bets of $4000 and $3000 coming for the Bulldogs at $2.10 as soon as betting opened on Monday, but now that betting has settled down, there is a constant stream of traffic for both sides. If you find the winner of this game, you find the favourite to win the Cup, and that is proving a little too hard for most as neither the Roosters ($2.75) or the Bulldogs ($3.25) have had any massive bets placed on them this week. Most would be surprised to see that Penrith are the outsiders against New Zealand, but the game prices are related to our current premiership book. The Warriors are a 'blackout' for us, where as Penrith have gone through the season virtually unwanted, and even now are $5, big odds for a minor premier. Statistically, it points towards a Panthers win as they have beaten the Warriors three times this year, one of those in a trial game. The free scoring Panthers defeated the Warriors 28-14 in Auckland back in round seven, then repeated the dose 34-12 at Penrith Stadium in round twelve. The $2.20 was taken on Monday with bets of $3000 and $1600, but apart from those, all the money has been for New Zealand. Most of it, including a bet of $9000, has been coming out of New Zealand, so there is little doubt that the Warriors are once again going to go around at short odds, and for our money, they look a good risk! GOLF His second round of the day and a course record 62 from J.L. Lewis was enough for him to capture his second PGA tour victory in winning the 84 Lumber Classic of Pennsylvania. Lewis became the fourth player over 40 in the last five events to win on tour this year and once you take out the Elite such as Tiger Woods , Davis Love etc then only four players under 30 have been successful for the season , these headed by Ben Curtis and Adam Scott. The "young" guns who were supposed to leave a mark on the tour have been upstaged by the "pop" guns who are mentally better prepared than their younger members and showing that experience counts for plenty down the stretch. Well supported players such as Allenby and Flesch failed to flatter while Jerry Kelly, carrying one wager of $1000 each way at $23, had put himself in a winning position only to close with a two under par 70 which was not good enough on a day where low scores were the norm. Lewis's win has moved him into the top twenty on the PGA money list, a just reward for his most consistent season yet. We head to the home of the Spurs this week for the Valero Texas Open with defending champion Loren Roberts a $29 chance. This event is generally won on the greens with the likes of Roberts and in previous years Justin Leonard being successful , so its no surprise to see David Toms installed as $13 fav ahead of Sergio Garcia and Chris Riley both at $19, all of whom posses immaculate short games. Punters however appear to have different ideas with Scott Verplank, Alex Cejka and Frank Lickliter all backed to win over $50,000 none of who however are over 40, so using that as the criteria for winning form our value tip is John Huston. On the European tour K.J Choi created history by becoming the first Korean to capture a title in winning the Linde German Masters by two shots from Miguel Angel Jimenez, with a further shot back to Niclas Fasth and the well supported Ian Poulter. Choi was successful twice on the PGA tour last year and his victory in Germany makes him a truly International player. This week the Dunhill Links Championship takes place in Scotland on what is regarded as three of the finest links courses in the world and culminating with the final round at the home of golf, St Andrews. Ernie Els has been installed favourite at $7 as he looks to cement his position at the top of the Volvo Order of Merit, but will meet strong opposition from Vijay Singh $10 , Darren Clarke $15 and defending champion Padraig Harrington $21. Throw into the mix an in form Ian Poulter and Australian Adam Scott and we have a tournament which promises an exciting finish. Els , Singh and Poulter have all been backed to win $50,000 by one of our Australian clients but links courses have a habit of producing upsets akka Ben Curtis so don't be surprised to see another in this classic event. FORMULA ONE With only two races remaining on the F1 calendar, the Drivers Championship may well be decided this week in the USA Grand Prix. Michael Schumacher is 3 points clear of Juan Pablo Montoya, and with Schumacher bouncing back to form with a win at Monza last start, he is entitled to be full of confidence coming to Indianapolis this week. Schumacher has been on pole here the last three years, and has met with solid support to win this week at $3. Montoya however has also had a great season, having finished on the podium in the last eight races, and won here at the 'Brickyard' in the Indy 500 back in 2000. Montoya was also based in Indianapolis when he drove in the Cart series, so he should feel right at home. We have installed him as favourite at $2.75. RUGBY UNION The Rugby World Cup kicks off on October 10th as host Australia take on the might of Argentina, the Pumas, at Stadium Australia in Sydney. New Zealand All Blacks still dominate the betting at $2.15 as does winger Joe Rokocoko at $6 to be the tournaments leading try scorer. Centrebet are also offering odds on leading try scorer for Australia, England and New Zealand, Pool winners and How the World Cup will end for all competitors. And if you are South African the answer is probably by injury as their bad luck continues with Bobo and now De Villiers ruled out. The moral to the story appears to be that this close to the Cup what benefit can be gained by taking on minnows in practice matches which due to their lack of competitiveness, provide no pointers. That aside the betting is hotting up with one $10,000 wager on England this week at $2.90, forcing their price into $2.80 and along with the All Blacks are being backed to the exclusion of all other counties. A home victory will be greeted with tumultuous cheers from the Red Centre. FOOTBALL Glenn Hoddle's status as one of Tottenham's greatest players was insufficient to stop Spurs chairman Daniel Levy terminating the White Hart Lane legend's contract and thwarting punters who had gambled on Chelsea becoming the first English Premier League team to replace their coach. Four defeats, including home losses to Fulham and the club from which Tottenham lured Hoddle two years ago, Southampton, resulted in the former England manager losing his grip on the job about which he had dreamed. We installed Hoddle as our sack race favourite but punters thought that Claudio Ranieri would be the first Premier League boss to part company with his employers. The Ranieri plunge began as soon as our punters got wind of Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich's deal to buy the Stamford Bridge side and spend millions of roubles attracting several of the world's best soccer players to west London. Many people thought that Ranieri would be the first casualty of Chelsea's Russian revolution but, even though British news outlets continue to link England coach Sven-Göran Eriksson with the Blues, it seems that Abramovich will persevere with the coach that he inherited from the previous Stamford Bridge administration, at least until such time that his team falls off the Premier League pace. Our punters believe that Chelsea will maintain their championship challenge over the next few months. Now second favourites for the Premier League title, Ranieri's team were the best backed side in the latest round of matches. It is a sign of the rapid progress that the Blues are making that punters did not shy away from taking odds-on quotes about them defeating Wolverhampton. Twelve months ago, many punters would have ignored Chelsea at a short price for a road game versus one of the division's lesser lights since there was a feeling within the football betting community that the Blues did not always apply themselves against supposedly weaker outfits. That is not the case today. Abramovich's spending spree has improved competition for starting places at Stamford Bridge and, consequently, everyone is giving of their best in every match. No-one who witnessed Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink's glum reactions to Hernan Crespo's weekend goals needs convincing of the will to win within the Chelsea camp. Hasselbaink wants to lift trophies but, even more importantly, he wants to start games. Mönchengladbach became the first German Bundesliga club to change bosses when, like Tottenham, they sacked one of their favourite sons. Ewald Lienen played 244 Bundesliga matches for the Foals between 1977 and 1987 and, after replacing Hans Meyers towards the business end of last season, steered them to 12th position and safety. But Gladbach are our third favourites for the drop after picking up just four points out of a possible 18 in the first six Bundesliga rounds, an unacceptably low tally for one of Germany's most famous teams. Lienen had to go - the only surprise was that Gladbach were the alone in replacing their coach over the weekend. Kaiserslautern manager Erik Gerets was odds on to be the first Bundesliga boss shown the door and the coaches of Frankfurt, Hamburg, Hertha and Köln also kicked off the latest round under pressure. It may not be long before another German side axes their leader. Finally, a round-up of the teams on whom our punters bet large sums of money in the latest domestic fixtures. Punters celebrated Premier League wins for Chelsea ($1.62 to $1.50) and Liverpool ($1.35) but the failures of Leeds ($2.20), Manchester United ($2.20 to $2.05) and Newcastle ($1.57 to $1.50) put us ahead of the game. Champions League stars Internazionale ($1.45 to $1.40) disappointed our Italian Serie A devotees, while bookmakers and punters shared the spoils in Germany and Spain. Punters toasted victories for Deportivo La Coruna ($1.36 to $1.30), Hamburg ($1.80 to $1.65), Hannover ($1.85 to $1.67) and Real Madrid ($1.70 to $1.45) but cried over the results of Barcelona ($1.40 to $1.35), Bayern München ($1.55) and Villarreal ($2.35 to $2.15). Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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