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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES It's finals time again, and with four interstate sides up against four Victorian sides in the playoffs, we are sure to see some big betting activity from around the country. Punters are loaded with plenty of ammunition after seven favourites and the well backed Carlton won last week, although one result went our way when Fremantle failed to make the final eight. The Dockers were easily the best backed side to make the eight, including one bet of $50,000 ($1.90) before the season started, but their home form this year was very disappointing. The West Coast came from the clouds to grab a finals berth, and showed on the way that they are capable of troubling a few sides. The Eagles got out to $1001 to win the flag eight weeks ago, and at one stage were $21 to make the eight. Currently they are only slightly better than that ($26) to win the flag. Premiership betting is really heating up, and while Brisbane have moved into $1.80 after being coupled up in some hefty doubles, there is money for all other sides. Sydney ($17) and West Coast supporters have been busy this week, with both sides being backed to win close to $50,000, while there has also been a $4000 wager for St Kilda at $10. A Grand Final quinella is also available, and Brisbane and Port Adelaide is the favourite combination there at $2.25. It only took 15 minutes from the time betting opened on Monday to record the first five figure bet, and that was $10,000 for Brisbane at $1.22. Two more similar bets, and some large multi's, saw the price cut to $1.20, where we continue to see money. We have also taken three bets totaling close to $25,000 for Brisbane to get beyond a 29½ point handicap. The Lions gave St Kilda a hiding up at the Gabba two weeks ago, but it is worth noting that it was a day game, and that they held a commanding lead early on. Aaron Hamill is out for the Saints, but Alistair Lynch will be an even bigger loss for Brisbane. I am not sure that St Kilda can win, but they can definitely stay within the handicap. Melbourne intend to name forward David Neitz, but most are of the opinion he will be out. Melbourne have now lost four in a row without a fully functional forward line, and they now find themselves favoured to be out of the finals after the first week. The Demons are currently $2.05 to beat Essendon, and less than $500 has been placed on them. We haven't taken any big bets for Essendon yet, and to be honest aren't that keen to, as we agree with punters, Melbourne are in trouble. A big betting game is in progress on Saturday night when Sydney host the West Coast. The Swans have lost at least one advantage with the game being played at Telstra Stadium, and in our opinion, that is enough to say that the Eagles can win. Sydney are $1.50, and there has been close to $50,000 placed on them in early trading, while money from the west has seen the Eagles solid in the market at $2.60. Port Adelaide are into $1.27 to shake off the 'September hoodoo ' against Geelong on Sunday. Port opened at $1.30, and immediately were coupled up in $60,000 worth of multiples with Brisbane and Sydney, and Geelong, now out to $3.70, find themselves completely friendless in the betting ring. The Cats are getting a handy 22 points start, and like the other two big minus starts, we are more than happy to accommodate Port Adelaide supporters. Geelong have been the form side of the competition recently, and the only reason they are being written off in this game is their poor interstate record, one win from their last sixteen games. Come finals time however, those type of records account for nothing, just have a look at the way Port Adelaide turned home ground advantage into a loss to Collingwood last year. Warren Tredrea ($3.25), Nick Riewoldt ($4) and Chris Judd ($4.50) head Brownlow betting after the final round of home and away games. All three have had terrific years, but there is little doubt that if either Tredrea and Judd played for Victorian sides, they would be a lot shorter. The only money we have seen for either has come from their own states, needless to say both are good winners for Centrebet. Now all we have to do is sit back and wait for the first of the ‘leaks’! Tonight (Thurs) we will also make betting available on next years Grand Final, as well as next year’s wooden spoon. There are high hopes for some of the sides that finished at the bottom this year, with Richmond, the Bulldogs, and Hawthorn all having coaching changes, but on what we have seen this season, all three have a lot of work to do to climb up the ladder. GOLF It may have taken Woody Austin eight years to win his second PGA tour event but it was certainly worth the wait, defeating Tim Herron on the first extra hole of a play-off. Austin finished in the top 50 on the money list in 2003 for the first time since 1996, the year after he won his first event, the 1995 Buick Open, and was named rookie of the year. His return to form last year was highlighted by a runner up finish to Davis Love at Hilton Head Island, losing on the fourth hole of a play-off so his victory at the Buick Championship was sweet revenge while breaking a run of 274 tournaments without a win. Betting on the Buick was quite brisk for a tournament void of big names with Zach Johnson, Kirk Triplett and Jose Coceres all backed to win in excess of $50,000 and all having an opportunity to win the event, with 20 players within four shots of the lead entering the final day. Johnson coming up just one shot shy of the play-off with a closing round four under par 66 the same score as eventual winner Woody Austin who was an $81 outsider prior to the first round. This week the tour heads to Boston for the Deutsche Bank Championship which sees Australian Adam Scott defending champion at $21. Tiger Woods and Vijay Singh head the betting at $5.50 and $6 respectively and both in solid recent form, Singh being successful at the Buick Open and PGA Championship last month while Woods finished tied for third at the Buick and in a tie for second at the WGC-NEC Invitational. Singh along with David Toms, $26 and Zach Johnson, $41, have been backed to win over $100,000 while Woods has won back his share of admirers with a succession of wagers, the largest being $3000ew at $5.50. The European tour saw Miguel Angel Jimenez claim his fourth victory of the season when he captured last weeks BMW International Open in Munich. Jimenez closed with a six under par 66 for a two shot victory over Frenchman Thomas Levet with a further three shots back to Colin Montgomerie, Alex Cejka and Paul Casey. Pre tournament favourite Sergio Garcia and well backed Englishmen Lee Westwood and Luke Donald failed to stake a claim and it was left to the unflappable Spaniard to show what an asset he will be to the European Ryder Cup team in a fortnight at Oakland Hills. Betting in the Ryder Cup has the USA favourite at $1.55 from Europe at $2.75 while a tie is $11. The tour heads to Switzerland this week for the Omega European Masters with world number three and defending champion Ernie Els favourite at $4.25 ahead of a string of in form golfers such as Sergio Garcia, $13, Jimenez, $14, and Angel Cabrera and K.J. Choi both at $17. Els has been well supported again after taking a week off from tournament play and should be cherry ripe to defend his Masters title, a feat which has not been achieved since Seve Ballesteros over a quarter of a century ago. ELECTIONS Australians will go to the polls on October 9 after PM John Howard called an election last Sunday. Six weeks is a long campaign, and already many political analysts have formed the view that the betting trends will play a significant part in determining the winner. Betting has been open on this election now for over twelve months, and while the prices have fluctuated wildly at times, the Coalition has always been favourite. They were as short as $1.20 the day Mark Latham was elected leader of the opposition, and as long as $1.70 three months into Mr. Latham’s tenure. Recently though, the bulk of the bigger bets have been for the Coalition as it became evident that an election wasn't far away. Currently, just under $400,000 has been wagered on the upcoming election, with $50,000 of that coming this week. We expect that Centrebet will hold $2 million in bets on the big event, and with the prices as close together as they are, perhaps it might even get beyond that. There will be betting available on a selected number of 'marginal' seats, but these will not be open for at least two weeks, we need time to get a list of candidates, and 'do the form' on them! The trend this week has been weighted towards Labor, with 70% of the bets for them at $2.30. Those bets have all been for small amounts, with a handful of large bets, including one of $8000, coming for the Coalition at $1.55. That is normal procedure for these type of events as bigger punters invariably wait until the week before the election. Quite often they will take a reduced price, but at least then there is little opportunity for either party, or leader, to make a faux pas that could cost them vital votes. ENTERTAINMENT Three 'wild cards' have been decided to join nine others in the finals series of Australian Idol, and it does look very open indeed. Surprisingly, it has been one of those wild cards, Marty Worrall, who has been the best backed this week. Marty was the one to go through from the votes submitted by the public, the same public who didn't vote him through previously. We opened up Marty this week at $11, and he has attracted dozens of bets which has forced a price change into $9. The well supported Daniel Belle ($3.75) remains favourite, and this week we have taken nearly $2000 for him, but the talented Chanel Cole ($4.25) is vying for favourtism. All twelve have met with backing this week, with the least popular with punters being Emilia Rusciano ($9), but she did get huge wraps off the judges last Monday night. At this stage, any one of the twelve could win, which is in complete contrast to the first Idol where eventual winner Guy Sebastian, and runner-up Shannon Noll, had a stranglehold on the betting. RACING Starcraft has already stamped himself as a class galloper, but if there were any doubts about his ability, they were dispelled last weekend with an impressive first up win in New Zealand. That win has elevated Starcraft to $4 equal favourite, along with Private Steer, to win the Cox Plate. This week we have taken $3000 worth of bets for Starcraft, with Northerly the only other horse to meet with any backing, a $1000 each way bet at $21. Pre post betting on the Cox Plate is normally on the quiet side as the field drops away, and many have trouble handling the tight Moonee Valley circuit. We are always on the lookout for any early money on the overseas entrants in either the Caulfield or Melbourne Cups, but that hasn't eventuated yet. Perhaps they are holding back until the weights are issued, then checking on the probability of horses coming across. Any sign of early money for the overseas contingent is usually a sure sign that they are going well, and certain to come, so we will keep punters informed of any significant moves. Sydney mare Wild Iris is ruling favourite to win the Caulfield Cup at $9, and is $17 to win the Melbourne Cup. She has been backed to win $25,000 in each race, while last years Melbourne Cup winner Makybe Diva ($10) has been backed to win a similar amount to defend her crown in the Melbourne Cup after a slashing first up effort at Caulfield last Saturday. This week we are also covering the National Sprint and Distance titles of greyhound racing, which will be held in Perth on Saturday night. Sydney sprinter In For Life, which changed hands for a reported $125,000 prior to winning the NSW final, is the $1.70 favourite after trialing in a near record time last week. He has drawn the coveted inside box, but might be some risk as he has brilliant beginners in Go For Dosh ($5) and Regal Ricky ($4) drawn in two and four. NSW also have the favourite in the stayers race with the aptly named Classy Customer the $2 favourite. This final is not overly strong, and Classy Customer has been in scintillating form, but the Victorian runner Doug ($5) has enough early speed to cut across the favourite. MOTOR BIKES With six rounds of the MotoGP remaining, Valentino Rossi leads Sete Gibernau by 17 points, and with Gibernau winning the last grand prix in impressive style, the upcoming races take on renewed interest. Rossi had a blistering start to the season, winning four of the first six rounds, but wins have become a little harder recently, achieving only one win from his last four starts. Rossi and Gibernau are again expected to dominate at Estoril this weekend, but if either rider should falter, Max Biaggi will be waiting to pounce. Rossi is the favourite at $2.10, and normally after betting opens, the little Italian is the only one punters want, but his recent form has seen punters desert him in preference of Gibernau at $2.75. Gibernau has also attracted a bet of 3000 euro to finish on the podium at $1.45. The superbikes head to Assen this week with only three rounds remaining. With the top four separated by just eight points, every race/point is critical. Regis Laconi will be the slight favourite ahead of Noriyuki Haga who won the last two races in Brazil. Chris Vermeulen won the two races at the previous meeting, while the other main contender, James Toseland, hasn't won since the first round. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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