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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES We split the spoils with punters on the weekend when the heavily backed Sydney Swans were beaten by St Kilda, but punters bounced back on Saturday night when Geelong ended Essendon's season in wet conditions. It was actually wet and greasy conditions in both games, and in Friday's game, Sydney were backed from $1.75 into $1.60, in amongst all the bets taken were three separate bets of $10,000 as the price tumbled, but there was one bet of $30,000 for St Kilda with 8½ points start at $1.95. We were given a few thrills on the total game score, with a bet of $20,000 on 'under' 157 points not decided until a goal in the last minute, which saw the total get to 163 points. Early in the week, a few injuries to key Geelong players saw money come for Essendon. We took bets of $15,000 at $2 and then at $1.90. That all changed however as storms swept across Victoria, which saw Geelong come from $1.97 on Saturday morning, to start at $1.75. Some of the bigger bets taken included $20,000 at $1.95, and $18,000 at $1.90, and while we paid out on a Geelong win, we did get to hang on to a double of $80,000 at $2.85 which was for the Cats coupled up with the Brisbane Bronco's, who fortunately were beaten. Gary Ablett Jnr had been under a fitness cloud all week, but one Victorian client will be celebrating the fact that he took the field as he took one of our 'scorecasts', outlaying $100 to win $10,000 that Ablett would kick the first goal and Geelong would win by less than 24½ points. Now there are only four left, and both Port and Brisbane are going to go around at prohibitive odds on this week. We opened Port Adelaide at what we thought was a conservative $1.30, but two $10,000 bets, and $40,000 worth of doubles with Brisbane, soon put paid to that. Now they are $1.25, and continue to be backed. Many are saying that the $4 St Kilda is well over the odds, but nobody is taking it, and they have an ordinary record against Port at AAMI Stadium. If Port win, Brisbane will automatically shorten, and it would seem only bad weather can bring about any money for Geelong. The handicap has been set at a rather high 27½ points, but it has to be somewhere near that given Geelong's price ($4.50), and we are keen to take Brisbane on at that. As far as premiership betting goes, it has been solid for all four teams left. Geelong ($12) or St Kilda ($9) are our best results, but we aren't in too much trouble with either Brisbane ($1.60) or Port ($3.30). Looking back over the biggest bets for each team left is interesting, and those bets are - Brisbane, $80,000 at $2.50, Port, $12,000 at $10, St Kilda, $30,000 at $4, and Geelong, only $2000 at $12. Next Monday is Brownlow Medal night, and although we have a solid $2 favourite in Warren Tredrea, there have been several players backed to beat him. As yet, there haven't been any of those infamous 'leaks', but no doubt there will be a couple about by the weekend. Tredrea attracted close to $6000 in bets last week, but so far this week we have taken nearly $5000 for Nick Riewoldt, now into $4.50, and $3000 for Chris Judd at $4.75. Geelong's Cameron Ling $15 has been backed to win close to $75,000 over the past month, and there is continued support for Brisbane duo Simon Black and Nigel Lappin, both at $9. A series of head to heads are now on offer, along with the top vote getter for each club, with that option including ineligible players. RUGBY LEAGUE 'Cowboymania' has hit Australia like a tornado, and it is hard to argue against why North Queensland can't beat Brisbane on Saturday night. Punters from Northern Australia have gone into a frenzy now that their side have finally proven what they are capable of, and although they enter this weekend’s sudden death game as slight underdogs, the money that has gone on the Cowboys is quite astonishing. Up until Thursday lunchtime, close to $100,000 had been wagered on the game, with over 80% of that coming for the Cowboys, including one bet of $30,000 from a Sydney punter! The $26 that was available Monday morning for them to win the premiership cup quickly disappeared, and that has been cut to $18 after the Cowboys had been backed to win over $100,000. Brisbane are a proven performer at finals time, and North Queensland have never beaten them, so they deserve to be favourites, but the euphoria surrounding the Cowboys, and a few Brisbane injuries, will see the Bronco's current price of $1.70 drift even further. The North Queensland side were one of three upsets last weekend, handing us our biggest ever weekend of league results. It all started when the Dragons were backed from $2.05 into $1.65 against Penrith. Although one punter placed $15,000 on Penrith when they got to $2.20, it was still a huge start to the weekend. The game should have been all over when the Panthers led 24-0 early, but St George Illawarra clawed their way back, and only went down by one solitary point, 31-30. Some big money went west when Melbourne Storm came from a half time deficit of 8-0 to beat Brisbane 31-14. The Bronco's were coupled up in large multi's, and also attracted bets of $40,000 to win the game at $1.60 as well as a bet of $30,000 to cover a 4½ point handicap. That game was barely over, and many were back on the phone to get their money back on a Bulldogs win over North Queensland. Only problem was someone forgot to tell the Cowboys ($5.50) that they weren't supposed to win. Bets of $30,000, $16,000 and $10,000 were thrown on the Bulldogs to win, as well as heavy betting through the handicap, which was -14½. On Sunday, due to the previous upsets, we did see money for Canberra to get within 20½ points of the Roosters, but in one of the season's biggest betting games, this one went the way of favourite backers. One Sydney client placed a total of $34,000 on the Raiders with the start, but that was well and truly eclipsed by bets of $25,000, $19,000 and $15,000 for the Roosters to beat the spread, which they did in a 38-12 victory. The Bulldogs, who were the premiership favourites at $2.60 prior to last weekends defeat, have now blown out to $4.25 as they face up to three sudden death matches. That is probably under the odds, but the punters still want to be on them, with close to $20,000 being placed on the Bulldogs early in the week. They are $1.50 to beat the Storm on Sunday afternoon, and there has been bets of $15,000 and $5000 placed on them to beat a 5½ point handicap, but the Storm have their fair share of admirers, with three early bets of $2000 for them to cause another upset at $2.60. We expect most of the money that will be wagered on this game to come on Sunday, but the signs are there that it should remain pretty close to where it is at the moment, and hopefully the Storm can continue on with the upsets! GOLF Exactly one week after becoming the world's number one Vijay Singh showed the partisan crowd at Glen Abbey why, when he closed out Canadian Mike Weir on the third play-off hole. Another Sunday and another dramatic duel featuring Vijay Singh who has now won three of the last four events he has competed in, including the PGA Championship, and is now less than $500,000 behind Tiger Woods' single season record of $9.1million. There are more than enough events on the calendar for Singh to set records of number of wins and money earned in a season which will remain the benchmark for years to come, a just reward for the hard working Fijian. Vijay was once again backed to win over $150,000 from a loyal supporter who must have a wing of his house named after the affable Fijian, compliments of Centrebet. It would have been one of the most popular wins of all time if Weir could have closed out the tournament to win his national title, a feat which hasn't been achieved in over fifty years. And it could not be said he didn't have his share of opportunities as he had three individual putts to win the title , the last being 5 feet on the second play-off hole which slid agonisingly by. Vijay then clinically closed him out on the next hole, something you would expect of the worlds number one. On the European scene Padraig Harrington came from three shots adrift of Irishman Graeme McDowell to clinch his seventh European Tour title at the Linde German Masters. Harrington had not won since the Hong Kong Open in December however his closing round two under par 70 in difficult windy conditions was enough to hold out Australian Nick O'Hern by one shot. Englishman Paul Casey who was very well supported to win the event was within range entering the final day however a four over par 76 ended his chances while Ian Poulter, also well supported, failed to make the cut. The win should be a great confidence boost for Harrington leading into this years Ryder Cup at Oakland Hill where he will be an integral component of the European team. On the subject of the Ryder Cup, betting has been brisk with Europe firming into $2.65 after one wager of $40,000 at $2.75 while team USA has drifted to $1.58, although they have had their share of supporters. Top points scorer for Europe has Darren Clarke and Sergio Garcia sharing the top of the betting at $6.25 while best supported has been Luke Donald, $31 into $8. Leading points scorer for a strong USA team has Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson sharing the top of the betting at $4.50 while David Toms has surprisingly been well backed from $8 into $7. Centrebet will be offering Fourball and Foursomes betting on a daily basis along with all twelve singles matches on the final day. Whatever the result, nothing stirs the purists' hearts like the intensity which is the Ryder Cup. ELECTIONS Two events in the past seven days have seen some hefty movements in the betting on the Australian election. Mark Latham's tax policy release early last week didn't inspire the marketplace at all, but the tragic bombing in Jakarta last Thursday, and the debate on Sunday night, did force some move in the prices. In the 24 hours after the bombing in Jakarta, close to $70,000 worth of bets saw the price for the Coalition firm from $1.45 into $1.30, with little support for Labor in that period. It was interesting that punters reacted that way because all the criticism levelled at the Howard Govt since the weekend has been about our involvement in Iraq, and how defense has been handled overall. Anyway, that saw Labor drift out to $3.20 before the debate started. Betting was closed while it was on and although the whole thing was a very tame affair, there had to be a winner, and it was Mark Latham. Kim Beazley won the debate back in 2001, and the very next day we took about $20,000 for the then Labor leader to win that election, so we had a pretty good formline to follow. Unfortunately for us, that was about the last time we took any serious money for Beazley, and off course he went on to lose easily. This time, we opened Labor at $3, and in the first few hours took about $4000 in bets for them. As we are always on the lookout for any trends, we cut the price to $2.75, and since then have taken another $12,000 for them, so we have a good betting contest on our hands. Today (Thurs), and over the next few days, we will begin to open betting on a number of selected seats around the country. Those of particular interest will be the two NSW seats of Eden - Monaro and Wentworth, and no doubt we will be able to report on any early activity next week. ENTERTAINMENT It is a sad blight on our society when it can be revealed that Australian Idol rated better then the 'debate' between our two leading politicians on Sunday night, but that is exactly what happened! The good news out of that however is that Australian Idol is hugely popular, and that has been reflected in the high level of betting we have seen on the second series. Once again, many were bamboozled as to how Dan could have been evicted from the show early this week, but as we have so often said, the singing ability of each contestant is only one factor that you can look at. At least it was a male that was turfed out this week, which does even up things up a bit. Just on that, it is pretty obvious to us that the whole system is unfair, so maybe there should be a male and a female version of the show? This week, Chanel Cole is back as $3.75 favourite. As much as $67 was available for Anthony Callea prior to him getting back in through the wildcard show, but he is a definite talent, and continues to be backed, even at the $5 he is currently on. Marty Worrall, who had been backed into second fav last week, has drifted to $8 after a lacklustre performance on Sunday night, and also for the fact that he narrowly missed the guillotine on Monday night. All in all, it is still very even, and is really in the hands of the voting public. CRICKET Tonight (Thurs) we will have our first legitimate match-up in the ICC Champions Trophy when Australia take on New Zealand at The Oval. It has been hard to gauge where both sides are at to date as the competition has been poor to say the least. But this is different, and as we said last week, we are expecting a forward showing from the Kiwi's in this tournament, and we are tipping an upset tonight. As usual, our Indian friends have been eager to back the Aussies, including bets of $USD 15,000 and $USD 10,000 taken at $1.45, Unfortunately our clients in New Zealand don’t share our view of a win for their national side, as we haven't seen much come across for New Zealand at $2.80. Australia remain solid $2.55 chances to hold the trophy, with bets of $8000 and $4000 coming at that quote. While we have been prepared to put the pen through the winning chances of South Africa, one punter from Cape Town has backed South Africa to win $30,000 with us at $7.50. All the normal exotic bet types are on offer, and the one sided games can often throw up an odd result. We took a bet of $4000 at $1.40 that South Africa would hit more sixes than Bangladesh in their match early in the week. Bangladesh batted first, and were bundled out for 93 runs. The South Africans leisurely reeled that total in, but neither side put one over the boundary fence. RACING Most of the horses on the Cups trail have raced in the past two weeks, and following on from recent results, there has been a bit of a reshuffle to our Cups and Cox Plate markets. Delzao was most impressive defeating Makybe Diva at Moonee Valley last Saturday, and his price has been cut into $10 to win the Caulfield Cup. This week we have layed him to lose roughly $20,000, and while some say he is suspect at the distance, he did run a close second to Lonhro in that memorable Australian Cup. Although Delzao appears harshly treated with 54kg in both Cups, he looks the ideal Caulfield Cup horse. Wild Iris remains a well backed $8 favourite for the Caulfield Cup, but is yet to be tested the reverse way of going, while it appears as though Special Harmony ($21) may not have come up. In the Melbourne Cup, last years runner-up She's Archie put up a phenomenal performance to win at Moonee Valley last Saturday on a heavy track. Her Cup price has been slashed to $9, and we have taken about $1500 for her this week at that quote. Makybe Diva lost no admirers when second to Delzao, and remains solid in the betting at $10, with a move coming for one of the Godolphin horses, Razkalla. We did have Razkalla at $41, but a Victorian client backed the horse to win $25,000 each way, and was again backed to win the same amount at $26. There is apparently some doubt about the Godolphin horses coming this year due to the quarantine conditions, but the fact that this one has been backed would suggest it will be getting on a plane shortly. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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