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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES Brisbane and Port Adelaide have been the two form sides for the majority of the season, so it is only fitting they should meet in this year's Grand Final even though it appears to have upset a lot of Victorians. It could easily have been a different story though with both sides sneaking through in two thrilling preliminary finals. While both were short priced favourites and coupled up in multiples, we managed to stagger out with a small loss as neither covered their allocated handicaps. Now we are down to the last game of the year (barring a draw of course), and the injuries to Brisbane, in particular to Jonathan Brown, have seen Port Adelaide open significantly shorter than most would have expected. They opened at $2.40, and there's been plenty of money coming from South Australia for their side. We have also taken a bet of $30,000 from a Victorian punter for Port to win. This looks like being one of the better betting Grand Finals as the Lions are easy to sell at the $1.57, which is only marginally shorter than they were last week when there were four teams left! We have already taken three bets of $10,000 for Brisbane to win, as well as bets of $8000, and $5000 (twice) for them to beat a 12½ point handicap. Late yesterday (Wed) a massive bet of $75,000 for Brisbane at -12½ into the two NRL favourites, the Bulldogs and the Roosters (for a payout of $250,000) forced a price change for the Lions and they are now into $1.50 or -14½. There will be the usual host of betting options on the final, and without a doubt the most popular of those will be the Norm Smith Medal, awarded to the best player on the ground. As soon as betting opened on this option, Brisbane's Nigel Lappin was backed to take out nearly $10,000 at $6, with Simon Black ($7), last year's medal winner, backed to win a similar amount. The Port players whom punters have been keen to back include Chad Cornes ($11), Roger James ($15) and veteran Gavin Wanganeen at $21. At least one punter thinks that Brisbane forward Alastair Lynch can improve on his poor kicking from last week as he has had $600 on the Brisbane spearhead to kick the first goal at $9. It is important to note that if it is a draw, there will be a replay the following week, but all bets under the title 'AFL Grand Final' would be decided this week, which explains why we still have an 'AFL Premiership' book still open. Hopefully it isn't a draw as that would cause mass confusion, but we have made every attempt to clarify that. Second favourite Chris Judd won the Brownlow Medal in a hand canter, racking up 30 votes in Monday night's count. It was obvious at the half way mark that he was going to win, with the heavily backed Warren Tredrea ($3) and Nick Riewoldt ($5) struggling for votes. Judd opened the year at $34, but didn't really attract any support until the last few days. He had a terrific year, and we kept cutting his price, and judging by the ease of his victory, it might not be the last Brownlow he wins. The biggest bet for Judd on Monday was $6000 at $5 from a Western Australian punter, but the winner was still a good result for us in what turned out to be the biggest ever Brownlow we have! covered. Some of the other bets included $6000 on Tredrea at $2.50, three $4000 bets for Riewoldt at $5, $3000 for Mark Riccuito at $16, as well as $20,000 for Cameron Ling ($1.33) to be the top votegetter at Geelong (James Bartell beat him by one vote), and a winning bet of $4000 at $3.75 for Adam McPhee to top the Essendon vote. There was also a $10,000 bet for James Hird to win the Essendon vote at $1.55, as well as a bet of $15,000 for Jeff White ($1.42) to win the Melbourne count. White scrambled home by one vote from Adam Yze. RUGBY LEAGUE North Queensland punters have plenty of ammunition after last week's thrilling 10-0 shut down of the Brisbane Broncos, and it would be a brave person to say that they can't beat the Roosters this week and make their way into the Grand Final! Brisbane started slight favourites at $1.80, and while there was late money for them, it was nothing like what we took for the Cowboys. The amazing aspect of the plunge on North Qld was that a lot of the money was coming from NSW and Victoria, and it seems that league fans have adopted the Cowboys. Everybody loves a fairytale finish, and we are bracing ourselves for a similar plunge this week, although there is little doubt that the Roosters will have big support as well. The biggest bet on North Qld at the weekend was $30,000 with 3½ points start at $1.90, and we also took five separate bets of $1000 for the Cowboys to win the title, the first of those at $23, with the last two coming at $16. All up for the week, North Qld were backed to win over $200,000 in title betting, and they have gone from being a winner for us, to a loser. In this weekend's game, the Roosters opened at $1.28, or -11½ points. This is shaping as a big betting contest as we are seeing hundreds of bets rolling in for North Qld to win at $3.80, yet very little for them with the 11½ points start. We have already taken two bets of $10,000 for the Roosters conceding the start, as well as a $40,000 double coupled up with the Bulldogs to win the other semi final. Bulldogs fans, like their North Qld counterparts, have got plenty of our money to throw around this week after they eliminated Melbourne from the finals race. We thought that the Doggies were a risk anyway, but all the big money on the game was for them, and we suffered a big loss. Some of the larger wagers included $32,000, $25,000 and $19,000, all at -5½, as well as a 'win' bet of $40,000 at $1.50. The one saving grace was that the game total of 63 points was way beyond the 48½ that we had set. Several big bets, including $10,000 and $8800, were placed on the 'under' when bad weather was predicted, but that didn't come to fruition. Such is the popularity of the Bulldogs that they have been backed for plenty to beat Penrith, and also win the competition. The Bulldogs opened the week at $3 to win the title, and first thing Monday morning, $25,000 worth of bets forced that price into $2.75. The Bulldogs were already a bad result for us, but the Roosters are our big winners, and remain favourites at $2.10. Penrith are 'unlayable' at $6, and are equally as hard to sell against the Bulldogs this week. Penrith opened at $2.50, but are already out to $2.90 after sustained support for the Bulldogs, including $15,000, $12,000 and $10,000 all taken at $1.45. Don't forget that there will be betting at half time in each match, and the premiership betting will be available as soon as Sunday's match is finished. ELECTIONS Money continues to pour in on the upcoming election, both to win it overall, and also on individual seats. The weekend saw some bigger bets come for the Coalition. They were led up by a $14,000 wager at $1.30 which had followed a $10,000 bet at $1.33. Several $1000 bets also came at the short odds, so the Coalition have settled at $1.28. We continue to see bets coming for Labor (ratio of about 50%) which ties in with what opinion polls are saying, it's just that they aren't significant amounts compared to the bets for Mr. Howard. To date, $500,000 has been wagered on this election, and with still a couple of weeks of campaigning to go, it looks set to break all records. Pauline Hanson's political career has been resurrected, and we have opened up a market on whether or not she will win a seat in the Senate. We did the same thing last election when she was the leader of the One Nation Party, and punters got it right on that occasion when she missed out. We opened it up this time with $6 that she would win a Senate seat, and that was backed into $3.50. We were treating this market with a lot of caution as it is hard to ascertain her popularity, but at $3.50 there is plenty of money to say she can win. We have taken a bet of $2000 at that quote, but following the Labor Party statement that they will not be giving her any preferences, we saw some smart money, including a bet of $6000, come for the famous redhead to miss out at $1.25. Six individual seats opened late last week, and another 20 followed on Monday, and there has been money for most of the favourites. The topical seats have been Eden Monaro and Wentworth. Eden Monaro is the seat which is always a good pointer to what happens nationally, and we did install Gary Nairn, the Liberal sitting member, at a short quote of $1.20. Not much action to report there apart from a bet of $1000, but we have taken nearly the same amount for the Labor Party candidate Kel Watt at $3.25. I noticed he did 'tip' himself, saying that he might even take some of that quote (and he is more than welcome to!), but our research has shown that he certainly faces a battle to win the seat as defense is a big issue in the area, as well as a proposed jail at Queanbeyan. In Wentworth, a real war has erupted after Peter King failed to gain Liberal pre-selection. Malcolm Turnbull got the Liberals nod, and with King now in as an independent, the gate is open for Labor to sweep past both. So, we have three legitimate chances for a change, and at the moment, Turnbull is slight favourite at $2 ahead of King at $2.50 with Labor's David Patch at $3.25. RACING Punters were on the ball when it was announced that Private Steer had hurt herself in a training mishap and was a chance to miss the Spring Carnival. The news began filtering around last Friday, and we took about $6000 worth of bets for Cox Plate co-favourite Starcraft at $4 before we found out what had happened to Private Steer. Following on from Starcraft's win in New Zealand, he is now outright elect at $3 ahead of Grand Armee at $5,Private Steer at $6, with Northerly, also backed to win $25,000 last week, now into $9. Elvstroem returned to his best at Caulfield last Sunday, and has been elevated to $10 third choice to win the Caulfield Cup. The pattern of racing that day suited horses on the pace, and Cup favourite Wild Iris ($8) was noticeably making late ground, and looks hard to beat in the Cup. Delzao ($9) wouldn't have lost many friends when second to Elvstroem, and is getting fitter with each run. Zagalia also ran home well in the same race, and while we have cut the John Singleton owned mare into $12 to win the Caulfield Cup, it has been the $11 to win the Melbourne Cup that has been exciting punters. The other horse well in commission to win the Melbourne Cup is Irish stayer Vinnie Roe, who didn't make the trip last year, but the money around would suggest he will this year. Vinnie Roe won his fourth Irish St Leger last weekend, and immediately we laid him to lose close to $40,000 at $21 before cutting his price to $15. ENTERTAINMENT Ricky Lee Coulter has emerged as the new favourite at $3.50 to win Australian Idol following last weekend's show. That makes the Gold Coast entrant our fourth different contestant to head the betting, and over the past week it has been Ricky Lee and Anthony Callea (now $4) who have been the best backed. One of Ricky Lee's fans backed her on four occasions last week to win a total of $11,000 at $7 and $5.50, while Anthony was backed to win a similar amount at $5.50. Perth performer Courtney Murphy has the voice to go all the way, and has joined Callea on the second line of betting at $4.We think that the disco theme of the upcoming show on Sunday may not suit him, but there is little doubt he is gaining popularity. He looks different, and that might matter when it counts. Outside of those three, we haven't seen decent levels of interest in any of the other singers. TENNIS The two Davis Cup semi finals are on this week, and with the withdrawal of French number one Sebastian Grosjean, Spain are going into this tie very short at $1.12. The French are left with Matheiu and Clement in the singles, and they look to have little chance against the likes of Moya, Ferrero, Robredo or Nadal. The French have a strong chance to win the doubles with Santoro/Llodra, but that's about it. Spain have lost only once at home since 1993, having won 14 matches in that time, so they deserve the short quote. The USA/Belarus tie will be played on outdoor hardcourt, and their singles combination of Roddick and Fish should prove far superior for Mirnyi and Voltchkov. The Americans are $1.06 to win the tie, and they have been popular through the multiples. In their favour is that Mirnyi is out of form, and Voltchkov hasn't been getting beyond the first round of most tournaments, so it could be a whitewash. If all goes according to plan, Spain will host the USA in Spain, and on clay. The Spanish have now firmed into $1.48 to win the Cup now that France will field a weakened squad, with the USA AT $2.95. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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