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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES One dynasty has ended, and perhaps another has begun in the aftermath of Port Adelaide’s fantastic win in last Saturday's AFL Grand Final. The final score shows a 40 point win to the Port side, but the game was certainly a lot closer than that for the first 2½ quarters. It was only then that Brisbane's injuries started to really take a toll, and Port's running game moved into overdrive. This was easily the biggest betting AFL final we have ever had, mainly due to both Queensland and South Australia being represented, and naturally Victorians waned to bet on the game as well. Surprisingly, the largest bet didn't come from any of those states; it came from New South Wales, with a punter placing $150,000 on Brisbane to win at $1.50. That bet came in on Friday, and was followed up by a bet of $80,000 on Saturday morning at $1.45. The money continued to pour in for Brisbane not only to win, but also beat a 14 point handicap, with the biggest of those bets being $33,000. Port did have plenty of support, especially from smaller punters. The big bets for Port included $30,000 at $2.50 (from a client who had backed Brisbane early in the year at the big odds), as well as bets of $20,000 and $15,000 with 14½ points start. As we reported a few weeks back, Port did have a bet of $12,000 at $10 (payout of $120,000) placed on them early in the season, but they were still a long way short of the potential payout if Brisbane had made it four in a row. It has been an amazing few days since the Grand Final was played. This time last week, everyone was predicting a Brisbane win, and complaining that the concessions given to the Lions would see them continue to win premierships. Now, with one defeat, the knives are out for several players, and all of a sudden the Lions are 'too old'. That has been reflected in the betting we have seen for next years flag winner, with Port the favourite at $3.50 ahead of Brisbane at $4. Not a single bet has been placed on the Lions since Saturday's match, so punters have quickly dropped off. We have taken a $5000 bet for the West Coast at $15, and a $1000 bet for Geelong at $12, but apart from those two, the bets have been small and scattered amongst several sides. We also decided to open up next years Brownlow Medal market. There are still some trades to occur, but a lot of these wont affect the major part of the market. This year’s winner, Chris Judd, is the shortest opening favourite we have ever had at $7. When you consider his winning margin this year, the fact that many think that the Eagles will be a better team next year, then he has to be that short. In the past few years it has been Crawford, McLeod, Buckley, Voss, Hird, Riccuito and company who have dominated the opening market, but there has been a changing of the guard. All of these, apart from Ricciuto, have had trouble with injuries, are approaching veteran class, and are playing for sides that might struggle. It has also become obvious looking at the votes, and then looking at the prices for next year, that the mid-fielders should, and do, dominate the betting. One player that we will be keeping a close eye on this season will be Fremantle's Byron Schammer. We took bets on Schammer to win $400,000 before this season began at $201, and while he appeared to have an only average year, he racked up 12 votes, hence his price of $34. Another up and comer we are prepared to have on our side is Geelong's James Bartel, who although was ineligible, still amassed 13 votes, one more than the heavily supported Cameron Ling. Bartel is also at $34, but we haven't taken any significant bets on any player at this stage. RUGBY LEAGUE The climax of what has been a controversial and exciting season of NRL takes place on Sunday when the Canterbury Bulldogs take on their nemesis of recent years the Sydney Roosters. Both are deserving representatives after a weekend of tough and hard Preliminary Finals in which both favourites managed to escape with wins, but not without cost. The first final on Saturday evening saw the Bulldogs turn on a polished display in the second half against Penrith after trailing 8-4 at half-time to emerge victors 30-14. Having lost their skipper Steve Price in the third minute the Bulldogs defended their line superbly as the Panthers launched several raids only to be repelled by a disciplined Bulldog defence. To only lead by four at half-time was an ominous sign for the Panthers who had lost key forward Joe Galuvao to an eye injury while it was certain the Bulldogs would get more of the ball in the second half.This proved to be the case as halfback Brett Sherwin controlled the game superbly to lead the Dogs to a comprehensive victory. The Bulldogs were all the rage in this game firming from $1.52 into $1.4 with the start also firming from 6½ into 7½ on the back of several $10,000 wagers.If the relentless flow of money from the rank and file wasn't enough then the $200,000 double, the Bulldogs into the Roosters at $1.75 from a new client certainly meant we got off to a poor start. The second preliminary final on Sunday saw the betting take a similar path to that of the Saturday final with all the money for the Roosters. They had firmed from $1.24 into $1.18 while the start also firmed two points from 10½ into 12½ on the back of an avalanche of money. A client from Sydney had two separate goes at the Roosters giving 11½ start while almost every NRL multi started with the Bulldogs to win into either the Roosters to win or at the start. With the $200,000 wager being live into this game it was obvious who Centrebet were barracking for and in no uncertain manner. This game proved to be the highlight of what had already been an exciting finals series. Both teams had come to play and it took only two minutes for an all-in brawl to erupt with Luke Ricketson placed on report, charged with a grade 3 striking offence which will see him miss the Grand Final if found guilty. The Cowboys were never out of the game and had an opportunity to steal a result being in possession five metres from their line with a set of six to come before time beat what had been the bravest of finals campaigns. The final has the Bulldogs solid favourites at $1.65, firming from an opening quote of $1.80 last Sunday evening on the back of several large wagers, the first being $50,000 from a Sydney client, the last, $35,000 from a client from Adelaide at $1.65. Take into account that the Bulldogs had been laid to win the premiership for some $200,000 at $4.50 eight weeks before the end of the season and you can see that Centrebet are very much red, white and navy blue this week. Tonight's judiciary decision going a long way to determine whether the Bulldogs start shorter than their current quote of $1.65. BASKETBALL Australian basketball, both men’s and women’s, tips off this week. The WNBL appears to be a three team race with last season's Grand Finalists, Dandenong and Sydney ($2.80), again set to be prominent at the business end of the season. Canberra ($3) appear the only serious threat to those two teams but they will be likely to have some ground to make up just to make the finals as Lauren Jackson and Tully Bevilaqua won't join the team until their commitments with Seattle Storm are over. It is not inconceivable that Seattle could win the WNBA Championship thereby delaying their start to the WNBL season but Jackson's nemesis, Lisa Leslie and the LA Sparks would think differently. Tom Maher's return to the Capitals has seen Jenny Whittle coaxed out of retirement and New Zealand Olympian Angelo Marino signing up to make her WNBL debut so good things can be expected from Canberra. Sydney Uni Flames off season coup was securing the return of Trish Fallon but they needed a quality addition after Shelly Hammonds signed with Perth. Expect Perth to improve on last season's tally of wins (zero) with Hammonds on their roster. Dandenong Rangers quest for consecutive titles tips off with little change to their line-up apart from the addition of Emma Randall (from Sydney) which earns them "the team to beat" tag. The big improvers this year in the NBL are expected to be the Townsville Crocodiles ($5). Two new imports, two of the best rookies going around in Quick and Newley, and John Rillie will ensure last season's tally of wins (13) will be passed some time in December. At this stage both of last season's Grand Finalists appear to have slipped a little but until Sydney ($4.30) finalise their imports it is too early to predict their demise. However it difficult to see the Razorbacks ($12) repeating their effort of last season without John Rillie. Brisbane ($4.15) were the pace-setters for much of the season until injuries to Black and Freeman disrupted them so with the Bullets again putting pretty much the same line-up on the floor they can be rated the NBL's ‘team to beat’. All six games in Round 1 of the NBL have plenty of appeal as new signings get to see if they can match it with the established players in the league. The Saturday Fox game is Melbourne Tigers hosting the Cairns Taipans. As usual there is little change to the Tigers' roster with David Stiff being the only significant addition. Cairns have added two ex Giants, Crosswell and Boodnikoff, and will be keen to get an early win away from home to set up their quest for a repeat playoff appearance. With eight of the eleven teams qualifying for playoffs the call that the system rewards mediocrity will not be far away but with the depth and parity in the league this season it seems more likely that a quality team or two are going to miss out. The first game of the season tonight (Wed) will see New Zealand go in as $1.54 favourites to try and repeat last season’s opening with a win over Adelaide ($2.50). We have taken two $4000 bets for Adelaide to win, but we expect the Kiwi’s to start the new season in a positive fashion. GOLF Vijay Singh's one shot victory over Stewart Cink at the 84 Lumber Classic not only secured his eighth win of the season but also set a tour record for the most money won in a single season. Singh has won $9,455,566 from 26 events to eclipse Tiger Woods' record of $9,188,321 set from nine victories in 2000. The signs were ominous for the 144 man field when Singh shot an opening round eight under par 64 to set up a three shot lead, a lead he never relinquished. Despite a final round charge from Ryder Cup representative Stewart Cink, who finished with a seven under par 65, Singh managed to hold on to for a one shot victory in spite of a bogey on the par-4 eighteenth. The victory confirmed his standing as the number one player in the world and completed a fairytale run where he has won five events from the last six he has competed in, but also completed a nightmare run for Centrebet as a loyal Singh follower backed him to win $100,000 at his opening quote of $4. Thank goodness Vijay is taking a week off from his arduous schedule this week as he helps his family in Florida recover from the effects of Hurricane Jeanne. On the European tour Sweden's Henrik Stenson ended a three year wait for his second tour victory when he claimed The Heritage at Woburn Golf and Country Club. Stenson triumphed by four shots from Spain’s Carlos Rodiles while countryman Patrik Sjoland finished third a further two shots adrift. Players who were well supported such as Padraig Harrington, $8, Colin Montgomerie, $19 and Graeme McDowell, $21, never really got going with McDowell best finish in a tie for 14th. The feature event this week is the second WGC event of the season, the American Express Championship held in Kilkenny Ireland. Defending champion is Tiger Woods, who has won this event three of the four times it has been held, and he has been installed favourite at $5.50 from world number three Ernie Els at $8.With the withdrawal of the world's number one Vijay Singh, both these players have an opportunity to gain some much needed ranking points on the lanky Fijian but also a win will help restore some flagging confidence. Punters however have shied away from the two prolific winners with Ryder Cup representatives, Sergio Garcia, $19, Darren Clarke and Padraig Harrington both $23, Lee Westwood $51 and Paul McGinley $81, all backed to win in excess of $100,000. With the top ranked players in the world represented one thing is for sure, this will take a player in good touch to walk away with a win, the question 'will it be Tiger Woods?' The secondary event for the week is the Southern Farm Bureau Classic held at Annandale Golf Club, Maddison, with defending champion John Huston at the attractive price of $34. There have been some less than fashionable names win this event in recent years with the holding of the American Express Championship, such as Brian Henninger and Cameron Beckman, and with veterans of the ilk of Fred Funk and Loren Roberts sharing the top of the betting with Jonathan Byrd at $19 then anything is likely to happen. Punters are as equally confused with little interest in the event however best supported have been Carl Petterson at $51 and Bart Bryant at $8, both backed to win $50,000 by an astute golf judge. ELECTIONS There is only a little over a week to go before Australians go to the polls to decide who will govern us for the next four years, and the 'event' is still a pretty good betting contest with money for both sides. Late last week, there was another wave of money for Labor after some news polls had Mark Latham ahead. Labor firmed from $3.30 (the biggest price this year) all the way into $2.70. In that flurry, we took about $50,000 worth of bets, the biggest being $20,000 (from Sydney) at $3. Then on Sunday, Prime Minister John Howard produced some interesting promises targeting low income families, and the betting went his way for two days. The $1.40 was taken with roughly $40,000 worth of bets, so the market was back to where it was two weeks ago, $1.33 for the Coalition, and $3 for Labor. That all changed on Tuesday however, as we took our biggest bet of the election so far, $200,000 at $1.33 for the Coalition, coming from a NSW based client. That has seen a major move into $1.28, with Labor easing out to $3.30. As we have said before, unless there is something drastically wrong in a country, it is extremely hard to remove a government, so we are bracing ourselves for our bigger political punters to be very active on the Coalition next week. They tend to sit back and bet late, just making sure that all the cards are on the table. More often than not, the odds are shorter, but the picture is clearer. The marginal seat betting has been topical around the country, but it is the seat of Wentworth that continues to see the most betting. Malcolm Turnbull's supporters have stepped in this week, taking the $1.80, then the $1.65, with the biggest bet being $4000 at the last price. But there is still money for the ALP's David Patch at $3.50 and Peter King at $4. Other seats where there has been movement have been Dobell, Eden Monaro, Parramatta and McEwen in Victoria. In Dobell, Ken Ticehurst (Lib) is an easing favourite at $1.50 ahead of David Meehan (Lab) at $2.40 and Paul Unger (Ind) at $6. Meehan has had nearly $4000 placed on him, but a group of Unger's supporters swooped in and took the $201 on offer, backing him all the way down to the current price. In Eden Monaro, Kel Watt, the Labor candidate, has firmed from $3.50 into $2.50, which should put a smile on Mark Latham's face, as this seat has proven to be a good barometer in finding election winners. Parramatta has been a topical seat due to the admissions of infidelity by sitting member Ross Cameron. Cameron is the second pick at $2.10, but has been backed at that price, but five separate bets of $1000 have been placed on the Labor candidate Julie Owens, who is now clear favourite at $1.60. In McEwen, most believe Fran Bailey ($1.25) will get back in, but there has been money for local store owner an Labor candidate Jenny Beales at $3.50, and also for Robert Gordon (Ind), who after opening at $101, has been backed into $11. At the time of writing, betting on the election had topped $750,000, and with there still being a week to go, it is going to climb to a very high figure. ENTERTAINMENT Gold Coast disco diva Ricky-Lee Coulter is now a firm $2.75 favourite to take out Australian Idol after an impressive performance on Sunday night. During the previous seven days, Ricky- Lee had been backed to win close to $10,000, and was already a firming favourite, and Sunday night's show has just endorsed that. The big problem that confronts Ricky-Lee is that there were two girls at the bottom of Monday night's vote again, and that is going to make it difficult for a female to win, no matter how good she is. Original favourite Chanel Cole has drifted out to $6.50 after copping some criticism from the judges, while several of the males left in the competition have had their odds cut drastically. Anthony Callea is solid second fav at $3.75 now, ahead of the 'big fella', Courtney Murphy. Courtney was good last week in an area that most thought he would struggle in, and is gaining popularity in the polls and also by the judges. Anthony was backed to take out $6000 last week, but to date, Courtney hasn't attracted a lot of interest. We are more than happy to have him a winner in our book as we think he will be around for a few weeks yet. CRICKET The Australian Domestic Summer gets under way next week, and the Queensland Bulls, losing finalist in both competitions, are favourites to go one better this season. The loss of Stuart Law has been tempered by Shane Watson returning to his home state, also the undoubted talent of Jimmy Maher and Martin Love are still there, plus the new ball partnership of Ashley Noffke and Andy Bichel is better than most international teams. A good early draw should give the Bulls a solid base to push for both Cups. Although we haven’t taken any bets for the Bulls to win the ING Cup, we have taken nearly $2000 for them to win the Pura Cup at $3. Reigning Pura Cup holders Victoria ($3.40) are next in the line of betting and will be looking for Matthew Elliot and Brad Hodge to have another magic summer, and David Hussey to dominate again with the bat. Whether the unheralded Victorian bowling lineup can perform the same as last summer will decide the fate of the Bushrangers. The Warriors from Western Australia ($5), are the team expected to improve in the four day game and repeat their thrilling win in the ING Cup. They have some of the most promising players of the future in the likes of Marcus North, Beau Casson and Zimbabwean Sean Ervine. A lot will be expected of experienced pair Ryan Campbell and Michael Hussey to guide the youngsters. New South Wales ($7) are an unknown after the retirement of Mark Waugh and Michael Slater, while Michael Bevan has moved to Tasmania. The Blues look to need some depth in their attack, maybe young gun Aaron Bird could be the surprise packet here. South Australia ($7) look to have a side ready to do some big things after a disappointing campaign last season. The ever reliable Greg Blewett will be the main stay of the batting, and it will be interesting to see if Shaun Tait can reproduce some of the pace that had batsmen all over the country jumping. The Redbacks have a well balanced side with batting all the way to number eleven. Tasmania ($8) have recruited well with Bevan and former Zimbabwean Andy Blignaut, two master exponents of the shorter version of the game, and should be a handful this year. Big things are expected of Blignaut and if he fails to fire, the Tigers could struggle to dismiss sides. With the ever increasing international schedule, whichever team is least effected by the Australian team's needs will have a good chance to take out the double. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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