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Aussie
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Centrebet Capers CRICKET Aussie punters have rallied behind the Australian cricket team in the fifth and final Test which gets under way tonight (Thursday) at The Oval. England is in the box seat and a win or a draw will see them regain the Ashes. As we mentioned last week, all the early money on this Test was for the draw with the weather predictions not looking too good and also the probability that the pitch will be very friendly to batsmen. The biggest bets to date for the draw have been $50,000 at 2.60 and $USD 20,000 at 2.75 and also at 2.60, all of those bets coming from India. Another of our Indian clients thinks Australia can salvage the Ashes by winning, as he has placed a total of $40,000 on the Aussies at 2.65 but we have also taken three separate bets of $20,000 at the same quote. As a result of money coming for the draw and Australia, England have blown out to 4.00 from 3.10 but having said that, we have seen plenty for them as well. Most of the bigger bets, including $20,000 and $10,000 have come from within Australia, possibly from punters who think the critics are right Australia are gone. AUSTRALIAN RULES Another umpiring controversy saw the Sydney Swans go down by four points in Perth last Friday night, and a narrow win to the Eagles was our worst nightmare. The West Coast were backed from 1.55 into 1.45, with the biggest bets being $44,000 at 1.48. While the 'win' price continued to tumble the -14½ for the Eagles didn't go anywhere, and the bulk of the handicap money was for the Swans with the start, even though they blew out to 2.80 to win the game. The Geelong v Melbourne game was the quietest final we have ever bet on, no doubt due to the inconsistent form shown by both this year. One very brave punter parted with $40,000 for the Cats to win at 1.80, and apart from that we didn't take another bet in excess of $5000 on the game. St Kilda's win over Adelaide was also a bad result for us. We gave 2.40 for the Saints the previous Sunday and there was money for them all the way down to the final price of 2.10, including $30,000 at 2.15 and $20,000 at 2.20. A massive plunge missed the mark on Sunday when Port Adelaide thrashed the Kangaroos by nearly 90 points. The Roos were backed from 1.95 into 1.70 with Centrebet, led up by bets of $30,000 (1.80), $25,000 (1.75) and $15,000 at 1.90. The betting on this weekend’s match opened at 1.80 Adelaide and 2.00 for Port but apart from two bets of $2000 for the Crows, the ratio of bets is running 4-1 in favour of Port, and they may even start favourites. In the other final, judging by the way the betting is going Geelong may as well not turn up. The Cats have an abysmal away record having won only once from their last sixteen trips interstate but surely they are overpriced at 3.50? Swans fans can’t get enough of them and we have already taken three $10,000 bets. It doesn't end there as we have had to bring them into 6.25 (from 7.00) to win the flag. RUGBY LEAGUE Finals time is upon us and it will be very interesting to see if the Wests Tigers can redeem themselves from a mini form slump when they line up against the Cowboys on Friday night. How the Tigers youngsters will handle the pressure is anybody's guess but punters think the Cowboys, even without Carl Webb, will win. The opening quote of 1.95 was snapped up with two bets of $5000 and we are now finding plenty more at the 1.90. It is hard to forget the 50-4 drubbing that Melbourne dished out to Brisbane back in April and while the Broncos will have Darren Lockyer and company back this week, there must be a big question mark also hanging over that group after extended layoffs. We think that Melbourne can spring an upset but punters are treading very warily on this one, with less than $10,000 invested in the first 48 hours of betting. The two remaining finals have red hot favourites in St George Illawarra and Parramatta. The Dragons are 1.15 to beat the Sharks and we have taken bets of $7700 and $5000 for the Dragons to beat a handicap of 14 ½ points. Parramatta look suspect without Nathan Hindmarsh and are conceding a 14 ½ point-start, which is a big handicap given the side they have named. We think that the Sea Eagles will get inside that mark and while we have taken nearly $12,000 for Parramatta, there has been money for Manly as well. St George-Illawarra remain premiership favourites at 2.30 but there hasn't been any interest in either them or the Eels at 3.10 this week. Brisbane and Melbourne are the two best backed sides this week with the Broncos attracting a $10,000 wager at 7.00 and the Storm backed to win $150,000. Premiership betting, as well as next week’s games will open at 6pm on Sunday night. AMERICAN FOOTBALL After seven long months some of the world's highest paid athletes will be back in action for the start of the NFL season this week. The season begins on Friday morning Australian time with the winners of three of the last four Superbowls, the New England Patriots at home to the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders, perennial cellar dwellers have made some big offensive signings in the off season by acquiring Randy Moss and Lamont Jordan so they can be expect to up the scoring ante this season. We expect this game to go down to the wire but most of the early support, including two bets of £5000 has been for the Patriots giving up a seven point-start. Without doubt the game of the weekend will be between the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore. The ferocious defence of the Baltimore side will need to be at their best to repel the multitude of options at the Colts' Peyton Manning's disposal. Given how much the offence of the Colts has struggled against the Baltimore defence in the past few seasons, the Ravens at 2.20 or with a three point-start could be a steal. DANCING WITH THE STARS The much awaited third series got under way on Tuesday night and the betting on this series has been fast and furious. We took close to $10,000 worth of bets before the first show and it may come as a surprise to know that the best backed performer was the person everybody loves to hate, Ian 'Dicko' Dickson. Dicko opened at 12.00 but is now a 5.50 solid third favourite and while we have serious doubts over his dancing capabilities, it seems as though punters now love him. Channel 7 newsreader, Chris Bath was the standout from the first show and has been elevated to favourite at 3.00 ahead of David Campbell at 3.50. Neither has had any big bets placed on them to date but both fit the criteria to go all the way, each can dance, each has a personality and in the case of Chris Bath, she is a Channel 7 employee which will help in promotion. Aussie icons, Michael Caton and Dawn Fraser have also been heavily supported and while not having the dancing skills of some of their younger rivals, there is little doubt that the popularity of these two may carry them a long way. We saw the same in the first two series when Pauline Hanson, John Wood and Derryn Hinch made it a lot further than what they should have, which only goes to prove that DWTS is also a popularity contest as well as a dancing competition. AUSTRALIAN IDOL The judges moved the goalposts on Australian Idol this week when they altered the format from a final 12 to a field of 13 by including Roxanne Lebrasse after the wildcard show. That has sparked some serious action on Roxanne who opened the betting at 16.00 following the show but has been backed into 11.00. Dan England and Chris Luder have been joined at the top of the betting by Natalie Zahra (all 5.00), who this week has been backed to win close to $6000. There are a lot more females near the top of the market this time and each has had support, including Milly Edwards (11.00-7.00) and Anne Robertson (21.00-15.00). Now that there is a lot more focus on a smaller number of singers, we are beginning to see a really good spread of money and this version of Idol is already shaping as a more popular betting option than the last series. ELECTIONS The Polls have National leader Don Brash ahead in the New Zealand election and while we still have Helen Clark as slight favourite at 1.80 to be returned as PM the gap has definitely closed. This time last week Helen Clark was a short priced favourite at 1.45 although there had been some support for Brash at 2.55. That support continued through the weekend, with nearly $25,000 coming for Brash. The polls that had Brash well in front must have had an impact on Kiwi punters as we have seen nearly that much again invested on him this week at 2.25, 2.10 and 2.00, and now he is into 1.90. Considering that most of the bigger bets taken on the NZ election so far for Labour to be returned have come from Aussie punters, I would say that at this point in time, perhaps Brash has his nose in front in the race to become Prime Minister. Nearly $250,000 has already been wagered on the NZ election so it will be pushing the half million mark by the time betting closes on September 17. Until next week, good punting For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or centrebet@centrebet.com
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