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Aussie
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Centrebet Capers CRICKET We have lost the Ashes but they are only on loan until the end of next year. Betting is up and running on the next series with the Aussies at 1.60, England at 4.00 and a drawn series at 4.50. That may seem short for Australia but they were 1.40 before this series started and of course we will have the big advantage of having the next series in Australia, beginning in November 2006. The first handful of bets that came through when betting opened all came from England for their side, from some of the many who helped themselves to the juicy odds for England to win the series just completed. While the win by England has severely dented our national pride, it was pretty good for business as three of the Tests gave bookies good results. The two draws were not so kind, especially the fifth Test. The draw went into the fifth Test as favourite, backed from 2.75, touching 2.20 when the weather was tipped to be bad. After the Indians we deal with had hit us hard, we also took a bet of $40,000 for the draw from an Australian at 2.25. Once Glen McGrath was named as a certain starter, there was a late splurge for Australia. Five bets of $10,000 were placed on Australia at 2.60 and there was also money for England at 4.00 but unfortunately, not enough. AUSTRALIAN RULES We are still trying to work out how the Sydney Swans are still in the finals series after one of the most incredible last quarters of play in the history of the game saw them stagger over the line by three points against Geelong. The Swans were heavily backed to win the game, with the biggest bet being $50,000 at 1.30, while there was another large bet on the margins option when a punter placed $15,000 on the Swans to win by 39 or less at 2.00. They had plenty of mates who also took the short odds and for all bar three seconds of the game, they had done their money. Spare a thought for those who thought the Cats were good odds, including one bet of $15,000 and another two of $10,000, all taken at 3.50. In the other final, the result was a shock to most when the Crows thumped Port by 83 points. In a terrific betting game, all the late money was for the winning side, which firmed from 1.90 into 1.72 at kick-off. Now we are down to four left, and in our opinion both matches this week can go either way. St Kilda plays most of their games indoors so that, along with several injuries, is a disadvantage on Friday night. Several of the big names for Sydney were down on their game last week and adopting the theory that they can't play that badly again, we think the 3.00 is outstanding value. We have taken numerous bets from the Harbour City for Sydney to win and also three bets of $5000 with a start of 15 ½ points. St Kilda is a popular side with punters and there have already been two bets of $20,000 for them at 1.38 but very little conceding the start. In the other game, all the money has been for West Coast but we don't think their form warrants the price. We opened at 1.90 and took two bets of $10,000, another $25,000 came at 1.80 and on Wednesday, a Perth punter threw down $35,000 at 1.72. While all this has been going on, there has been no money for the Crows to win at 2.10 but surprisingly they have been the best backed side all week to win the flag. After opening the week at 4.50, the Crows are into 4.00 having been backed to win close to $100,000. Betting for the Grand Final will open as soon as the West Coast game is decided with all exotic options open by Monday morning. Next Monday will also see the Brownlow Medal awarded and normally by this stage of proceedings, there have been the mandatory 'leaks' but this year there is nothing....yet. Ben Cousins has been favourite for close to three months and remains that way at 1.90, ahead of Scot West at 3.75. Barry Hall has been popular with NSW punters at 9.00, as has Fremantle's Matthew Pavlich (9.00) but there hasn't been a lot of movement for several weeks. RUGBY LEAGUE The Wests Tigers, the team that everybody loves (but not enough to back) did us another favour last Friday night when impressive winners over the Cowboys. While there was one bet of $20,000 on the Tigers at 1.90, practically every other bet beyond $5000 was for the Cowboys, who eventually started favourites at 1.90. There were also some big wagers taken on the Cowboys to win by more than 12 ½ points with the largest of those being $12,000 at 4.00. The Broncos were also heavily backed to beat Melbourne and in a titanic struggle, the Storm hung on to win 24-18. We took bets of $50,000, $30,000 and two of $20,000 fro Brisbane to win at 1.62 but we also saw two bets of $10,000 come for Melbourne at 2.30. All and sundry wanted to be on the Dragons conceding 14 points start to Cronulla. Although the two biggest bets only totaled $28,000, the total hold for the Dragons to cover the spread was the highest figure for the season so far. The Dragons were unable to shake off the plucky Sharks, and only managed to win by 6. The Parramatta v Manly match was the biggest betting game of the round. We took bets of $10,000 and three of $5000 for Manly to win at 4.50 and four separate $10,000 bets with 13½ point-start. However, such was the magnitude of support for Parramatta, that we still wanted Manly to win. At least we were out of our misery early as the Eels ran in try after try, racing to a 28-0 lead at half time before winning 46-22. So now there are six left, with two sudden death games this week. On form, Wests Tigers should be at least six-point favourites over Brisbane but the Broncos are such a popular side with punters and the Tigers aren’t that we have them at 1.90 apiece. The ratio of bets is heavily in favour of Brisbane (including two early ones of $5000), so we will again be looking to the Tigers to do the right thing by bookies. For the record, we think they can win by more than 12.5, which is paying 4.00. Punters have shied right away from the Storm who are favourites against the Cowboys at 1.67. As of Thursday morning, there had been less than $5000 placed on Melbourne to win this match so that would suggest that the Cowboys will more than likely firm up in the betting. RUGBY UNION While the punters and elite players alike look forward to the "autumn" tours in November, there is plenty of action on around the world. The Guinness Premiership in the UK is now into round three, the NPC is half way through their season and the Currie Cup is in much the same situation. The English Guinness Premiership went into round two over the weekend. The early form is proving difficult for most of our punters especially when the highly fancied Newcastle Falcons went down to Bristol as well supported 1.14 favorites. Bath were also the target of support from the Northern Hemisphere with punters thinking Bath (1.36 and -7 ½ point fav's) only had to turn up and a big score would be registered. Northampton managed to put Bath to bed with an 8 point victory. The NPC was a little kinder to the punters with four out of five favourites saluting. Well supported Otago accounted for the in-form North Harbour, Wellington got out of jail against Bay of Plenty and with both teams pretty much out of finals contention Southland snuck in a five point victory over Taranaki. The Currie Cup form is becoming quite transparent with all favourites winning again this week. The Leopards won by three in a high scoring encounter (50-47), the Golden Lions beat the Cheetahs in front their home crowd and Western Province seemed to have regained some form and punished a strong Sharks outfit. AMERICAN FOOTBALL What an opening week in the NFL with upsets galore and while there were many surprises some things remain the same. The Super Bowl Champion Patriots haven’t lost a beat with a comfortable first-up win. Wannabe dynasty teams the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts were also impressive crushing there opposition and look like they may combine for 30 wins this season. The second week promises to be just as entertaining as the first with some great match-ups. The Ravens will hope to get back on track away from home against the woeful Tennessee Titans. The Steelers will also try and roll on through Texas where they short priced favourites. The Monday Night game will also be one to watch as divisional rivals the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys go hell for leather to remain undefeated and gain control over the division. The Cowboys will be favourites after Drew Bledsoe inspired a great victory against the Chargers on the road last week. RACING It was pretty hard to miss the performance of Makybe Diva at Moonee Valley last Saturday, and the mighty mare has firmed up in betting to win the Cox Plate. She is now into 3.00 ahead of Lad of the Manor (5.50), who narrowly defeated her in that race, while veteran Fields of Omagh is on the third line of betting at 8.00. One new Victorian client predicted a forward showing by Lad of the Manor at the weekend as he coupled him up with Plastered to win the Caulfield Cup for a payout of $150,000. While there is still some conjecture over whether or not Makybe Diva will attempt to win the Melbourne Cup for a third time, she is still at the top of betting along with Plastered at 7.00. There has been small interest in Makybe Diva at that price but the two best backed runners to date have been Vinnie Roe (13.00) and Distinction at 16.00. The Dermott Weld trained Vinnie Roe has had two unlucky campaigns ‘down under’ and once he is a confirmed starter, his price will be slashed. AUSTRALIAN IDOL This week we had the first major shock of this series of Australian Idol when Chris Luder, the 'Fifth Wiggle' was one of two voted off. Chris had been the favourite when betting opened and was second favourite behind Dan England last week and had been backed to take out close to $25,000. It is rare for someone who has attracted so much support to be voted off, particularly a male but it does go to show that perhaps this is a very even series. Dan has firmed in even more now, into 3.00 but following the demise of Chris, punters are wary of backing the favourite. This is the first series we have seen some serious action for the females and the next three in the betting behind Dan are of that gender. Natalie Zahra is now second elect at 4.50, ahead of Anne Robertson (8.00) but most of this weeks bets have been for Kate DeAraugo at 8.00. DANCING WITH THE STARS It wasn't really a surprise that Tania Zaetta was the first contestant evicted from Dancing with the Stars as the Bollywood starlet fitted right into the criteria of early evictees, a good looking female. Tania was the outsider of the field anyway and was the person who had attracted the least amount of bets. Now the 'bolter' is Collingwood footballer Brodie Holland at 21.00 but he has had two bets of $100 placed on him this week, no doubt from Magpie supporters who are trying to salvage something from another disappointing season. Channel 7 newsreader Chris Bath has shortened again and is now into 2.50 after another impressive display. David Campbell is another who continues to gain support, with nearly $1000 placed on him this week at 3.50. Ian 'Dicko' Dickson is still the most popular of all with another $500, all in small bets, coming this week at 6.00. Dicko doesn't have the dancing skills of those ahead of him in the betting but there is little doubt that the public who used to loathe him have done an about-face. ELECTIONS There is a real betting battle going on as we lead into the New Zealand election which will be held on Saturday. Early on this week it looked as though Helen Clark would go in as near on unbackable after we had taken nearly $100,000 in bets for her over the weekend. Practically all of that money came from New Zealand, which saw the current PM firm from 1.55 into 1.40 to regain power. This week though, things have leveled up somewhat after some positive polls for Don Brash, which sparked a flurry of bets both big and small, again all from New Zealand. The largest of those was $20,000 at 2.70, followed by another $9000 at 2.60 and three bets of $2000 at 2.55. Brash is now a 1.8- favourite with close to $150,000 being place on him to win. Helen Clark is now out to 1.90 and it looks like she may be replaced as prime minister. Until next week, good punting For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or centrebet@centrebet.com
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