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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers RUGBY LEAGUE The talk in rugby league circles this week has been all about the Sydney punter who stands to collect a little more than a million dollars off Centrebet should the West Tigers win the NRL title on Sunday night. It will be the biggest payout any person has ever had off us after he placed four separate bets on the Sydney Swans and Wests Tigers to win their respective titles. Two of the bets were placed before the season got under way with the remaining two being placed (at 2000/1) in the early part of the season. The two games last weekend saw the equal premiership favourites both go over. Last week we took a bet of $50,000 and another of $40,000 for the Dragons to win the title at 2.50, a bet of $5000 for North Queensland at 10.00 and another bet of $20,000 at 9.16 for the Sydney Swans/Tigers double. The Dragons were also sensationally backed in the game against the Tigers including two bets of $40,000 at 1.55, and another $30,000 at 1.52. Sunday saw some of the favourite punters go into hiding as Parramatta drifted from 1.25 on Sunday morning out to 1.32 at game time. The two telling factors behind that were that Nathan Hindmarsh elected not to play for the Eels and Josh Hannay did play for the Cowboys. So now we have two unlikely finalists but a great betting game. The opening post was 1.60 for Wests Tigers with North Queensland at 2.25 but in keeping with most finals, there is money for the underdog. AUSTRALIAN RULES The Sydney Swans won the 2005 premiership in an exciting match that went right down to the wire. While it was a low scoring, dour struggle, the thousands of Swans supporters who threw their money on Sydney couldn't care less about the game as a spectacle, they were just happy to be collecting after a narrow four point victory. The Swans were a huge go in the Grand Final and in the four days following Barry Hall's inclusion in the side after being let off at the tribunal, Sydney firmed from 1.90 to start clear favourites at 1.70. We did take a bet of $65,000 for Sydney at 1.80 with five other bets of $20,000 coming for the Swans at around the same quote. Chris Judd was the opening Norm Smith Medal favourite at 6.00 and while he had been best supported early in the week, punters kept clear of both he and Ben Cousins in the days leading up to the game. It ended up being a very handy result, as did the first goal scorer option, which went to the Eagles' Mark Nicoski who was the bolter of the field at 67.00. Only one bet, $5, was placed on Nicoski. Within minutes of the final siren our 2006 market was open and we have already taken close to $20,000 in bets. Sydney, St Kilda and the West Coast were opening 5.00 favourites but amazingly, Sydney fans haven't reacted as they have been the least popular (along with Hawthorn) so we have turned them out to 5.50. Geelong opened at 16.00 (one bet of $2500) and we have taken two more bets of $1000 at 12.00, while we have taken close to $3000 for Adelaide at 11.00. CRICKET The first one-day match between Australia and the World XI is only a week away and business is starting to ramp up. Both the series (three games) and the first match have the betting at 1.85 for either side. Close to $35,000 has been bet on the series with the World XI having four bets of $5000 placed on them, as well as two bets of the same amount in the first game. These matches will be played indoors at the Telstra Dome and there has been a similar trend in the betting on the Test which will be played in Sydney later in the month. The World XI have been stable in the betting at 2.00 (one bet of $6500), the Australians have been well backed at 2.30 with the draw now out to 6.00. Again we would like to point out that while that looks terrific odds for a draw in a Test match this will be a six day Test, not five days and draws are a rarity at the SCG even when they are played over five days. GOLF The highlight of the week was the Presidents Cup, won 18½ to 15½ by the USA. While the Internationals were well backed, carrying one wager of $40,000 at 2.45, so too was hero Chris DiMarco who was backed to win over $50,000 at 9.00 to be the leading points scorer for the USA. Robert Gamez created history in winning the Texas Open by three shots from Olin Browne. His win set the longest break between wins in PGA history, 15½ years. His last win was the Bay Hill Invitational back in 1990...about the same time Centrebet won on a golf event. With two wins in a row we are now riding a wave of profitability. This week’s event is the Chrysler Classic of Greensborough and defending champion, Brent Geiberger is at the long quote of 81.00 to retain his title. The favourites are young guns, Sergio Garcia and Adam Scott at 9.00 from the consistent Stewart Cink and Tim Clark both at 23.00 Scott and Garcia, along with John Daly, Steve Elkington and the in-form Olin Browne have all been backed to win in excess of $100,000. FORMULA ONE Fernando Alonso won the World Driver’s Championship at the weekend when he finished third in the Brazilian Grand Prix and that was the result we were looking for. Alonso was a 'winner' in our Driver’s Championship book but was easily our worst result in the Grand Prix. After the grid was finalised, Alonso shared favouritism at 3.00 with Kimi Raikkonen and Juan Pablo Montoya but all the big money (including bets of €2500 and $3000) were for Alonso. He didn't take any risks in finishing third which gave him enough points to take the title but it was interesting to hear that Montoya, the eventual winner, would have let his team-mate Raikkonen win the race if it would have helped the Finn's chances of taking the title. Maybe that is why we didn't see any money at all for Montoya to win the race which gave him back to back victories in Brazil. MOTOR BIKES Loris Capirossi has won the last two MotoGP's but the price for his win at Sepang last weekend was nothing like what it was the previous race when he was a 17.00 chance in pre-qualifying betting. Capirossi has always had the ability but the Italian has struggled during the past two seasons. Capirossi was 3.00 in the opening betting and eventually started at 2.90 but we escaped a bad result as punters shunned him at the short odds. Valentino Rossi was the one they plonked for and was very easy to lay at 1.95 with the largest bet being $5500. Rossi led at different stages of the race but Capirossi took a few risks getting inside Rossi with a few laps to go to record an impressive win. They all go around again this week in Qatar and the way Capirossi handled the humid conditions in Malaysia he will be hard to beat again. Currently he is second elect behind Rossi at 3.25 with Rossi odds on at 1.85. To date we have taken less than $3000 for Rossi so it would seem that the public think with Rossi having the championship all wrapped up, he may not be as fully focused on winning each race. RUGBY UNION With only two rounds to go in the NPC season its time for a few provinces to stand up. Last week’s narrow loss by Wellington away to Canterbury by a point has placed their top four position in jeopardy as they must travel to Auckland this week to take on the Blues. A win is a must if they are to unseat either Otago or North Harbour for a semi-final berth. Similarly Otago must beat Canterbury at home this week and Waikato away next week if they are to guarantee themselves a spot. If that isn't complicated enough then the boys from Albany must beat Waikato then travel to Invercargill and beat the much improved Southland. Whatever the results the fate of each of these provinces is in their own hands as two wins will give them a berth. A loss may prove fatal. Betting has Canterbury favourite at 2.25 from Auckland at 3.00 and Wellington at 6.00 with North Harbour best of the others at 9.00. AUSTRALIAN IDOL Emily Williams received rave reviews from the judges in last weekend's Australian Idol show and that has shortened into a solid second pick at 4.00 behind Dan England. We currently have Dan at 2.75 and while he got some negative feedback on his performance, it was clear that the 'rock' format didn't suit him or many of the others. In the past two weeks it has been Dan, Emily, Kate and Anne who have been the ones punters have been looking to put their money down on. This week, Roxanne has been backed to win $15,000 which has seen her price crash from 26.00 into 17.00. DANCING WITH THE STARS Chris Bath outperformed and out charmed, the other contestants in Tuesday night’s Dancing with the Stars show. She has firmed to win the series and is now into 2.40. In the past two weeks the Channel 7 newsreader has attracted more bets than any of her rivals and has now cleared out from Ada Nicodemou (3.75) to win the competition. The next two in the betting are Ian Dickson at 5.00 and Collingwood footballer Brodie Holland at 5.50. With two females heading the betting we have seen the gender of winner book create plenty of interest with the females now at 1.45 and the males at 2.55. One time second favourite David Campbell has slipped off the radar and is now way out to 11.00 after narrowly avoiding the chop on Tuesday night. Until next week, good punting For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or centrebet@centrebet.com
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