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TEST SERIES
Updated 11:46 PM AEST, Wednesday 23 January

AUSTRALIA VS INDIA
4TH TEST - ADELAIDE

LATEST ODDS (Cricketbet) - Australia 1.89, Draw 2.63, India 8.20 First Innings Runs - Australia under 463.5 @2.00, Australia over 478.5 @2.00 First Innings Runs - India under 355.5 @2.00, India over 367.5 @2.00

WEATHER - There is a chance of a storm after tea on Day 1 and Day 2 but shouldn't be any more than an hour delay which of course can be made up later in the match when the forecast is fine, Temperatures on Thursday and Friday are expected to be in the early 30's which may trigger the storms, the weekend is mid twenties and fine conditions.

TEAMS - Australia should make two changes with Hayden coming but in for Chris Rogers and it is presumed Brad Hogg will come in for Shaun Tait. India's side is less certain as all the bowlers did well in Perth and they would want to play two spinners in Adelaide so Harbarjhan looks likely to come in but the question is for who? There is talk of him replacing the out of form Jaffer meaning Dhoni to bat at 6, Pathan at 7 and Dravid coming up to open the innings, this would send a sign of intent from the Indians that they are chasing 20 wickets. If they decide to play Harbarjhan in place of a fast bowler it will be very difficult decision to make, RPSingh swung the ball early in Perth and caused problems for the Australian batsman, Ishant Sharma's spell in the second innings is possibly the best spell of fast bowling to the Aussies since the 2005 Ashes series and Irfan Pathan was man of the match so he can't be dropped, I think they will play 5 bowlers.

PITCH - Usual Adelaide wicket, good for batting early on then starts to really take spin on day 4 and 5, a few hot days early on will only help to dry out the pitch and produce a result.

GROUND - short boundries square of the wicket will keep the scoring rate at a fairly high level.

OVER-RATES - The over rates in Perth were terrible but Australia played 4 quicks and India are never in a hurry plus a couple of days were extremely hot to slow things down, I would expect the over rates to be much better in Adelaide as India will play the two spinners and Ricky Ponting won't want to be fined again.

WHY IS THE DRAW SO SHORT? - This is like asking the meaning of life for cricket punters, the draw always seems to be under the odds but especially so in this match, a quick delve into the archive at cricket shows that in 9 of the last 11 tests in Adelaide the draw odds have traded at odds-on even though only 1 of them has actually produced a drawn result.

BETTING ADVICE - Bet against the draw now and then again if it goes to odds-on, both sides want to a win, India need to level the series, Australia will want to atone for Perth and won't think about saving the match (and the series ) until late on day 5 if they are up against it, I just can't see a draw in this match.



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