with OnThePunt's golf guru (a.k.a. 'Donski')
Updated 3:50 PM AEST,
Wednesday 12 August
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2009 US PGA CHAMPIONSHIP
The last major of the year and the 91st
staging of the event, returns to Hazeltine for the first time since 2002.,
where Rich Beem fought off Tiger Wood down the stretch. The course has been
extensively remodeled since with over 300 yards added to it and it is now
the longest ever course for a Major. The market has gone Woods crazy on the
back of his two wins the past two weeks and also due to his rivals bar
Harrington, Mahan and Westwood all in poor form. On the Outright I have gone
for two players playing great and with genuine each way chances.
Hunter Mahan EACH-WAY
0.5 at 36.00
-1
Predictable, but he has yet to finish outside
the top 6 in his last four events in the US (4/2/4/6). He was ranked 1st in
GIR last week, and only needs a decent putting week to bring home the bacon.
(Paddy Power 1/4 1-6)
Stewart Cink EACH-WAY
0.5 at 51.00
-1
Followed up his Open Championship win with a
6th in the WGC event at Firestone last week, his first event back for a
month. He could well be like Goosen who moves upped a level after his first
major win. Has putted very well the last two events, and the added width of
the tee here will help. (Paddy Power 1/4 1-6)
Chad
Campbell TOP 10
0.5 at 12.00
-0.5
11/25/15 in his last three
events, he was only a miracle shot by Shaun Micheel in 2003 off being PGA
Champ that year, consummate ball striker, and a much forgotten 2nd in the
Masters this year.
Woody
Austin TOP 10
0.5 at 15.00
-0.5
15/8 in his last two
events, he pushed Tiger close in 2007 in the PGA plays great this time of
year, and although a self confessed choker, a good chance to get in the
midst of the action.
Michael
Sim TOP 10
0.5 at 26.00
-0.5
Michael
Sim TOP 20
1 at 11.00
-1
Missed his last cut in the
Nationwide Tour two weeks ago,but has been the dominant player on the Tour
this year, was 18th in the US Opeon his major debut this year, and with more
room off the tee he can contend. The next Australian superstar.
Alvaro
Quiros TOP 10
0.5 at 15.00
-0.5
Alvaro
Quiros TOP 20
1 at 7.00
-1
Solid 15th last week in
the Bridgestone, he has proved he has the game for the big stage, the wider
fairways this week and the fact that there will be 4 par fives will also be
a bonus.
Steve
Flesch TOP 20
1 at 10.00
-1
Has an event record of
6/23/24/10/37/mc/17/13 in the last 8 years and was 6th in the Masters this
year, in bad form but seems to turn it on each year for the majors.
WORLD GOLF CHAMPIONSHIPS - BRIDGESTONE
INVITATIONAL
With two weeks before the last major of the
year the PGA tour returns to Firestone Golf Course for the Bridgestone
Invitational. The course has held various guises of this event for over 30
years. And Although Tiger has won here 6 times in all, and his last three
appearances here, I think at around 7/4 he is too short here, as the rough
is reported to be thick this year. However so few of his rivals are playing
well I cant see much value. One Mini Market that appeals to me this week is
Top Irish Player.
TOP IRISH
Darren Clarke
1.5 at 11.00
-1.5
Firstly he a top price 11/2 elsewhere.
Secondly, Harrrington the market leader has a best finish of 65th in his
last five events, Clarke has beaten him here 5 of the 6 times they have
played the event. Harrington best finish here is 14th. Clarke's record on
the course is 6/67/28/14/1/3/17. McDowell has played here once finishing
56th out of 78 players. McIlroy plays here for the first time and Lowry
makes his debut here having missed his last 5 cuts. With a premium on low
straight driving and hitting small greens, putting is not at a premium here,
He can be awfully erratic Clarke but on one of his favourite courses 10/1 in
this market is about double it should be.
PGA TOUR - BUICK OPEN
Is being played for the last time after 51
years of sponsoring the event, however part from Wood and Furyk the event
has attracted a poor field. hHwever there are a couple of betting
opportunities I like in the event.
TOURNAMENT HEAD TO HEAD
Michael Letzig to bt J Senden
3 at 1.87
-3
Letzig has made his last 20 cuts! He finished
8th last week in the Canadian Open. And was 12th here on his debut last
year, he ranks 1st in birdies on tour, and when the average winning score
has been 20 under here, this is a big bonus. John Senden has missed his last
four cuts and his 4th at the St Jude Classic is a distant memory, he has
also missed 4/6 cuts on the course with a highest finish of 22nd in 2005. In
an event where putting is the key he will always struggle.
TOP AUSTRALASIAN
Matt Jones EACH-WAY
0.5 at 13.00
BetFred
+1
He was 4th in the event last year, and ranked
in the Top 20 of putting in 2/3 of his previous events, he is very high up
in Driving Distance and par five stats as well. In a market where there are
so many question marks over the putting skills of Appleby, Senden, Lonard
O'hern in a low scoring event. Green coming back from a win last week which
surely will take a lot of out him Oh and his joint best finish this year
(tied 5th) was also in a Buick Sponsored event.
LPGA TOUR - BRITISH WOMEN'S OPEN
This last major of the year is being played
again at historic Royal Lytham and St Annes which hosted this event in
2006,2003 and 1999. With a windy forecast for the week and cool weather,
most of the stars from the LPGA will be totally unsuited to the conditions
and may of the young Asian stars this will be there first time playing links
Golf. I have gone for two players with good links experience and one with
the best record on course and links results in the field.
Sophie Gustafson TOP 10
2 at 3.75
-2
She lost in play off last week In Evian on a
course she previously played badly on, her links record in this event, away
from Sunningdale which is a inland course reads, 33/2/2/8/11/1/2. Her three
starts at Lytham read 2/8/8. She was second in the wind and rain at
Portmarnock in the Irish Open this year, and although she has been in
terrible form this year, she comes right for this event every year. And the
forecast should be right up her street, She will relish the conditions where
as 80% of the field will be dreading it.
Azahara Munoz TOP 10
1 at 12.00
-1
The worlds top ranked Amateur player, she has
won her last two big Amateur events in Europe, the English and British
Amateur on links courses. She has been the dominant player on the collegiate
golf scene in the US this year. And will possibly turn pro later this year,
she played in the US Open and although tied 40th was 1st in Driving
Accuracy. One of the few players in the field with proven links form, and it
might be asking her too much to win here, but Top Ten is the best way to
back her.
SENIORS TOUR - US SENIOR OPEN
Tom Watson EACH-WAY
0.5 at 26.00
-1
Was number 1 in GIR last week in the Senior
British Open, just putter poorly, however changed his putting grip in the
last round and birdied 6 of his last 12 holes to come 8th. His stats in the
event are 23/4/2/25/2/2. In an event where driving accuracy is paramount,
this should be right up his street.
EUROPEAN TOUR - SAS MASTERS
This has returned to the much lauded barseback
course, which hosted the event in 2006 and 2004. It has been extensively
re-designed since 2006, with the course toughened up and lengthened to over
7600 yards, this is the course which will probably host the Ryder Cup in
2018, if Sweden get the nod. Reports from the course, have the fairways very
narrow this year, and the rough is up this year, so driving the ball long
snd straight will be more imperative than even this week. Although Stenson,
Kjeldsen and Hanson dominate the betting and rightly so, they have al had 72
holes of tension and mental exhaustion of the Open last week, and Hanson has
played 6 weeks in a row, they may all suffer a reaction to this. I am
looking for two players in decent form, one with decent course form, and one
who after a horrendous start to 2009 seems back on the comeback trail.
David Lynn EACH-WAY
0.25 at 61.00
-0.5
He has made his last four cuts (17,42,16,21)
on tour after a bad start to the year, he has ranked in the Top 5 of GIR
twice in his last four starts, and was 27th and 6th here in his two previous
visits.
Kennie Ferrie EACH-WAY
0.25 at 81.00
-0.5
Kennie Ferrie Top 10
1 at 9.00
-1
After missing his first 10 cuts of the year,
after a year playing his trade on the PGA tour in 2008, he has recovered
from shoulder surgery. His last two events have been 6th and 17th in the
strong fields of the French Open and Scottish Open. He has never played the
course before, but his driving accuracy stats 9th and 6th in those events,
and he was in the Top 20 in GIR and Scrambling, leads me to believe that
Kennie Ferrie is back to near his best, This is a guy who played with
Mickelson in the last pairing of the 2006 US Open, so he can mix it with the
best. he didn't play in the Open last week which is a bonus, and in an event
weak in depth 80/1 seems more than generous.
2009 SENIOR BRITISH OPEN
This year, with Tom Watson's heroic
performance in the Open championship last year,this event should be exciting
as well. For the first time in the events history the event ins being played
on an inland course at Sunningdale, this may well favour the US players as
most of them have little experience of Links golf., However a lot of the
leading European players Langer, Torrance and Woosnam, have played here
countless times. However I am going to look for a player who could prove to
dominate this tour in the next few years.
Michael Allen EACH-WAY
1 at 19.00
-2
He did open up 20/1 in a place but that went
quickly. I make him near to 8/1. allen played in his first Champions event
in early June the Senior PGA Championship at Canterbury golf Club, the field
in that event was stronger than here, he opened up with a 74, and proceeded
to shoot 67,66.67 in the last two rounds to win by two strokes. He then
returned back to the PGA Tour where he proceeded to come 14th and 11th in
the Travellors and AT&T National. he was actually tied 3rd with one round to
go in the AT&T National with only a Anthony Kim and a certain Tiger Woods in
front of him. His form is equal if not better than Langer's in the event,
and he is over three times the price of the German.
2009 BRITISH OPEN
The Open returns to Turnberry after a 15 year
hiatus, this is the fourth time the Open will be played on the fabled Ailsa
course. the three previous winners Nick Price 1994, Greg Norman 1986 and Tom
Watson in 1977, were all just about the best player in the world at that
time. The course has been toughened up since 1994 with over 200 yards added
to make it a shade over 7200yard par 70, several new tees have been added
and over 20 new pot punters installed. The reports of penal rough have been
diluted over the past few days, and the fairways are meant to be on the fair
side. Its a course which cant really be overpowered and many players will
use irons and three woods off the tees. Whilst with a favoured tee time and
a weather forecast which predicts cool cloudy weather but not much wind
Tiger at around 11/4 does have a great chance, however his three previous
Open victories have all come on courses with little or no rough and in fine
warm sunny weather. he certainly wont get that this week !! With some
bookmakers
Paddy Power
and
BoyleSports
offering 1/4 1-7 this week, and Tigers price very short, there are some
juicy each way prices available.
Jim Furyk EACH-WAY
0.5 at 34.00
-1
Jim Furyk's last three Opens have been 5/12/4,
his form figures read 7/33/2/9/5, with only the US Open where he got the
worse of the draw letting him down, he has been near the top in driving
accuracy in each event and his low ball flight is favoured for links golf.
He is very nervy when near the lead but with 7 places available he has a
great chance of making the frame at least.
Ernie Els EACH-WAY
0.5 at 36.00
-1
13th at Loch Lomond where he was 1st in GIR
and 9th in Driving, he comes here with an Open Record of 7/4/3/34/2/1/3/2 in
the past 8 years, good enough with 7 places on offer to have got a nice
return 7 out of the last 8 years. yes he is a shadow of the player who won
multiple titles round the world in the last 15 years, but if ever an event
is suited to his game, this is it and considering he is bigger than twice
the price he has been in this event in the last 10 years, now seems the time
to have a gamble and see Ernie contend and deliver.
Soren Kjeldsen EACH-WAY
0.25 at 101.00
-0.5
His form the past four events has been
4/13/9/3 in four strongly contested European Tour events, he has been just
about the most improved European golfer the past 12 months. he has a bad
event record mc/41/mc/mc, however he came 8th and 13th in the Dunhill Links
Championship in 2006 and 2005, and won at Gleneagles in the wind and rain in
2001. He is a tidy steady player and a great putter. Would rather be on
Kjeldsen, who has similar form to Mahan at over three times the price.
Soren Hansen EACH-WAY
0.25 at 101.00
-0.5
Form the last four events of 25/6/6/6,
including that fine 6th at Bethpage, he is the consummate ball striker, and
his putting has been the only thing stopping him be a multiple winner this
year event record of 19/41/mc/8, but has finished 8/8 in his last two
Dunhill Links Championships. If he wasn't quiet and Swedish he would be half
the price.
TOURNAMENT HEAD TO HEAD
Ian Poulter to bt Ross Fisher
3 at 1.85
-3
With Poulter's Open record and his form in
Majors this year, and big events in the US, I would make him around 1.80 to
beat Fisher here, but with the well documented news that Ross Fisher will
pull out of the Open, as soon as his wife goes into labour,(the baby is due
Tuesday) even if he is leading the event on Sunday, to attend the birth of
his first child, this makes a bet too tempting to miss. A helicopter and a
private plane is on permanent standby to take Fisher to the hospital this
week. Fishers mind has to be not entirely focused to the job. The course in
not overlong, which wont help Fishers immense length of the tee, and both
Par fives the 6th and the 17th are reachable for most of the field, and
easily for Poulter. Its Poulter's best chance to win major this year, and a
course that promotes shot making, and the ability to scramble well round
these built up greens, where we have seen a dramatic improvement in
Poulter's game this year. Makes this one a real no brainer.
Winning Score 270 and Under
1 at 4.00
-1
My first feelings on the winning score this
year were on the high side, however all course information and reports, lead
to a low scoring event this year, the course is playing quite soft, so the
players will be able to fire the ball directly at the flag, furthermore the
course although toughened up, is still short by today's standards, and
although the rough is penal, the fairways are quite wide, and also the
players will not need to hit driver off the tee at all, or maybe just on a
couple of holes. This with two reachable par Fives and a kind weather
forecast, except a mildly breezy day on Friday, lead to a chance the score
may be 10 under or lower, Watson won with 270 in 1977 and Nick Price won
with 268 here in 1994.
TOP PLAYER - REST OF WORLD
Ernie Els EACH-WAY
1 at 9.00
+1
In a market where there are major doubts over
his leading rivals, bar Goosen, over either their form or ability to play
links golf. Ogilvy, Scott, Cabrera Singh, Villegas, Weir, Romero, Allenby
and Ames etc. Els's Open record is beyond reproach his form figures in this
market from 2008-2000 read; 2/2/1/12/1/4/1/1/1. Hardly looks an 8/1 shot
does it, and with four places on offer it looks even more appealing. Yes
there are doubs over the Big Easy ability to handle the pressure and perform
against the Top echelons of the game. But when he is the leading player in
the Outright market at 10th favourite for the Open, we can see what a weak
'mini event' this is.
PGA
TOUR - JOHN DEERE CLASSIC
This event is again being played at The Old
Deere Park course in Illinois, and has attracted a stronger field than
normal, due to the organizers chartering a private plane to ferry the
players to Scotland, in plenty of time for the Open. It has historically
been a low scoring event and I have gone for two players one with strong
local connections and another whose game looks to be turning the corner
after a lean few months.
Jerry Kelly EACH-WAY
0.25 at 67.00
-0.5
A native of nearby Wisconsin, he treats this
event and the Greater Milwaukee Open as his personal majors, he has won
already this year in New Orleans, and always seems to play in this event
above his normal standard, his three appearances here have been 18/8/12.I'm
prepared to risk he will be galvanized by local support.
Webb Simpson EACH-WAY
0.25 at 151.00
-0.5
Just too big a price for a class player who
has already Two Top 5's this year, he has made the cut easily in his last
two events, after a run of three missed cuts. And after a poor opening 74
last week finished well. He missed the cut here on his debut last year, but
is the kind of big hitting player who will appreciate the room off the tee
and the easier set up of the course.
EUROPEAN
TOUR - BARCLAY'S SCOTTISH OPEN
With the Open Championship being played at
Turnberry next week, a stellar field has been attracted to the Loch Lomond
course this year, for one of the most prestigious events on the European
Tour schedule. The Lomond course designed by Tom Weiskopf is much lauded by
the players for its condition and the majestic scenery of the Loch and the
Highlands in the background. The event has had several big price winners
recently including Gregory Havret, Johan Edfors and Thomas Levet.That aside
we have also had class winners in the sape of Els, Clark, Goosen and
McDowell as well.
Charl Schwartzel EACH-WAY
0.25 at 67.00
-0.5
After a quiet start to the year Schwartzel has
come back to form, although he struggled after a bright start in Paris last
week, he still came 12th and with a 6th in the BMW in late May his game
looks in fine shape. He has missed his last two cuts here in 2008 and 2007
but was second here in 2006. There were question marks over a possible neck
injury last week, but in an event where they bet 16/1 the field, he seems a
bit overpriced considering a lot of players will use this event as a tune up
to the Open.
LPGA
TOUR - U.S.
OPEN
Two small plays on an event played on the
Saucon course in Pennsylvania. With doubts over the mental state of Ochoa
and Creamers fitness two small plays on a Rookie and a wiry old veteran.
Mina Harigae EACH-WAY
0.25 at 151.00
-0.5
She has been the dominant player on the
Duramed Tour, the feeder tour to the LPGA this year, and his last four
events read 20/4/1/1. She won impressively her local qualifying for the
event by four shots. And is just the kind of young player who may well
rattle a few cages here.
Helen Alfredsson EACH-WAY
0.25 at 81.00
-0.5
Has had a second blooming the past few years
and was second in this event at Interlachen last year, her ball striking has
been first rate all year, with only her putting letting her down, however on
a course where the ability be close to par will be the order of the day she
can give us a good run for our money. She also has 5 Top 15's in her last 7
events.
PGA
TOUR - U.S.
OPEN
The event returns to the notoriously difficult
Bethpage Black municipal course in Farmingdale New York last used for the
2002 event where Tiger Woods at -3 was the only player to shoot under par
and winning by 3 shots from Phil Mickelson. We had chop out rough that year,
but this year with Mike Davis of the USGA in charge the rough is graduated
so players can stray and still have shots into the green. The course will be
playing very long & soft after a lot of recent rain and this ought to play
into the hands of the longer hitters especially as 3 par 4's are over 500
yards with the par 4 7'th at 525 yards unreachable for many of the field.
With the greens soft and the slightly easier rough scorong is expected to be
better than last time as the UGGA may also be more imaginitive with the tees
to make it a good test, but exciting rather than a tedious slog.
Paul Casey EACH-WAY
0.5 at 26.00
-1
Now ranked 3 in the world after 3 wins this
year and a runner-up in the World Matchplay. A major would seem the logical
progression for Casey and he has the game for the course. Long and straight
off the tee and with the help of Peter Kostis has become a very good putter
this year. With doubts about many of the market leaders he ticks a lot of
boxes and was 10'th at Oakmont when shooting a 66 on an unbelievably
difficult course in 2007, so has the game for the event.
Geoff Ogilvy EACH-WAY
0.5 at 21.00
-1
After his superb early season form where he
won with apparent ease in Hawaii and at the World Matchplay he
unsurprisingly went a little quiet, but his game seems to be coming nicely
to the boil. Shot a 63 at Memorial last time out for a top ten finish and is
of course a past US Open winner in 2006 which was also at a New York venue,
Winged Foot and on a course designed by A.W Tillinghast which is also the
case this week. Ogilvy has the unflappable temperament needed for the
ineviatble setbacks an event like this will pose and ranks very highly in
the birdier stats and allied to a strong long game looks to have all the
tools this week.
Steve Stricker EACH-WAY
0.5 at 41.00
-1
Won the Crwone Plaza event recently and ought
to have won at least 3 times this season. Has a good US Open record with 3
recent top 6's, the last of which coming at nearby Winged Foot. The keys to
his game are scrambling and he ranks first in this category on the PGA Tour
and also lies 4'th in proximity to the hole for approach shots in the 50-125
yard range. This being more key this week as although he strays from the tee
occasionally when under pressure recent US Open statistics show that driving
accuracy has not been so key as conventional wisdom may have thought.
PGA
TOUR - MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT
Tiger again returns to the Jack Nicklaus
designed Muirfield Village course an a event hosted by the Golden Bear. In a
weak looking field for this event Woods dominates the betting at around 3/1.
however I will look for others to offer more value.
Jim Furyk
Each-Way
0.5 at 26.00
+2.62
He has finished 9th and 8th in his last
two events and shot 67-65 to close last week in Colonial, the best of the
field, He has a win here and a second here in the last ten years and 10/12
times he has been in the Top 25. Although the course is quite long and wide
off the Tee his game is getting close to its peak for the US Open in two
weeks time, I think he may well go as well or better here, and in an event
where there are a lot of questions marks over the rest of the field, He
should give a good run for our money.
Jason Day
TOP 10
1 at 12.00
-1
A great Top 5 last week, on a course
totally not suited to his game, he was Ranked in the The Top 5 of putting
and scrambling last week, and he comes here in decent form, the course with
its generous fairways and four par fives should suit him right down to the
ground. And another big finish is expected.
EUROPEAN TOUR - CELCIT
MANON WALES OPEN
The event again returns to the 2010
Ryder Cup course, which got very mixed reviews last year when used for the
first time. The field with the withdrawal of Soren Hansen, Soren Kjeldsen
and Oliver Wilson has a very weak look to it, and I'm going for good events
from two proven performers who aren't necessary good enough to win but
should give a good account of themselves.
Marcus Fraser
TOP 10
1 at 7.50
-1
He has made his last 11 cuts on Tour and had a
eye catching 8th place finish last week in the well contested European Open.
It just seems like a generous price for a player in an event of this limited
depth.
Graeme Storm
TOP 10
1 at 9.00
-1
Five
Top 20's in his last 10 events and has possibly been pushed out in the
betting due to his 80,81 missed cut at Wentworth. He was 7th in this event
in 2006 and won a Challenge event in Wales just down the road in 2004. He
like Fraser is too classy player to be this price in this event.
SENIORS
TOUR - TRITON FINANCIAL CLASSIC
54 HOLE HEAD-TO-HEAD
Larry Mize to bt
Mark O'Meara
3 at 1.91
-3
Mize comes here after three finishes of 2-4-8
in his last three events and looks finally at home on the Tour, O'Meara
apart from two runners up finishes in March has been very poor on the tour
this year, he was 14th in the Senior PGA two weeks ago, but pulled out last
week after shooting 77 in the second round in Iowa, he has had chronic back
injuries for years and this flared up again. If both players were fit I
would favour Mize based on 3-0 head to head in their last contested events,
and this injury just enhances the value, should be more of a 1.80 shot if
not shorter
LPGA
TOUR - STATE
FARM CLASSIC
Momoko Ueda
Each-Way
0.25 at 101.00
-0.5
The Japanese sensation is meant to be the most
promising player on the LPGA Tour, Annika Sorrenstams ex caddie Terry
McNamara had the choice of anyone's bag except Ochoa this year and chose
her. She has been a let down for the first part of the year on tour, but has
turned the corner the past month she shot 13 under her last three rounds
last week. She is better on tougher courses and although this weeks course
in Illinois is not overly long or tough, she should improve on her 11/26
places of the last 2 weeks.
EUROPEAN TOUR - EUROPEAN OPEN
This will be the second visit to the Jack
Nicklaus designed Heritage Course at the London Club. This course does
favour the long hitters and with a fine sunny and fairly windless week
forecast, low scoring will be the order of the day. Although the last three
holes of the course play very tough, the Par Fives are very short by today's
standards and will be easily reached with mid irons by the big hitters. So
we have gone for two very long hitters who need room off the tee and are in
decent form.
Robert Rock EACH-WAY
0.25 at 67.00
-0.5
Robert Rock TOP 10
1 at 7.50
-1
He has finished 16/2/2 in his last three
events, and given his play off loss to Lowry the previous week a 17th place
was a good effort at Wentworth given that the tree lined course is not
really suited to his game. He has only been out of the Top 10 once in
Driving Distance this year, and a tidy 27th on the course last year augurs
well. He can be wild off the tee but his length will be a tremendous
advantage here.
Daniel Vanscik EACH-WAY
0.125 at 201.00
-0.25
Daniel Vanscik TOP 10
0.5 at 17.00
-0.5
Vanscik has missed his last two cuts since his
win in Italy, but if ever a course was built for his game this is it. He did
actually play well in patches at Wentworth and it was only some high scores
on the closing holes which cost him badly. On a wide open course where he
can swing with 'gay abandon' he is worth a dabble this week.
PGA TOUR - CROWNE PLAZA INVITATIONAL
The PGA's tour longest and most historic
course, the event has been played here every year since 1946. The Colonial
course suits shapers of the ball and good scramblers due to the small bent
greens and dog leg fairways. The rough is reported to be up this year, which
should favour the shorter accurate hitters.
Brian Davis EACH-WAY
0.5 at 51.00
-1
With finishes of 2/5/5 in the last few weeks
he is the most on song player on tour at this present moment. he turned down
a chance to qualify in the Open Championship to get extra practice here this
year, he played here for the first time last year for a 59th finish. He was
ranked in the Top 10 in GIR, Putting and scrambling last week, and despite
never having a win on the PGA tour, his usual weakness his putting has
improved dramatically this past few months ranking 8/11/38/9/6 in his last
five events. His ability to hit small greens has never been in doubt and now
he seems to be able to putt, particularly, on the texan bent grass greens he
must have a major chance this week
George McNeill EACH-WAY
0.25 at 121.00
-0.5
Only a poor finish in the last round last week
dropped him down to 16th in the Byron Nelson, and he was leading the Quail
Hollow championship at the 54 hole stage last month. he is the identikit
tidy player who should do well round here, and his finishes this year don't
really back up his ability. 33rd here last year on his debut he should be
well suited by the course this week
Mark Wilson EACH-WAY
0.25 at 126.00
-0.5
One of those players who saves his best
finishes for tight par 70 courses. He has won the Mayakoba and Honda Classic
in the last two years on tight par 70 courses. He shot 67-64 last week to
get 11th place, and was 10th in this event last year. Not afraid to win when
in contention.
EUROPEAN TOUR - BMW PGA CHAMPIONSHIP
The flagship event of the European Tour played
on the West Course At Wentworth. All 18 greens will be dug up and replaced
following this event, as the greens this time of year have been often
criticized and derided. The course itself has been toughened up, by Ernie
Els re-design, with missing the fairways more penal and the fairway bunkers
being more of a proper hazard. The ability to play the 4 par fives is always
crucial 4,12,17 and 18 usually decide the Championship, and although big
hitters usually do well here, we have had players like Anders Hansen and
Jimenez winning here in the past 5 years. I am going to steer clear of the
big ones and pick four players who are in form and have the tidy all round
no frills games to plot their way round here.
Thongchai Jaidee EACH-WAY
0.25 at 81.00
-0.5
He has proven now he is a player for all
seasons after a impressive win in the Ballantines in Korea and his 20th
place in the wind and rain in Ireland. He has form here of 30/8/mc/11 in the
last four years, and is high up in GIR stats. The weather this week will be
kinder and warmer, and as he has proved at Loch Lomond with numerous high
finishes he can perform away from his beloved Asia. Note that Boylesports go
1/4 top six.
Rafael Cabrera Bello EACH-WAY
0.25 at 101.00
-0.5
Managed to finish 20th last week in Ireland
despite a 79 in the third round, had one of the best rounds of the day on
Sunday with a 68, and he has now form of 20/6/4/11 in his last four events.
He has never played here before but he is very high up in driving accuracy
and distance off the tee vital attributes round here. He is still worth
following at these odds despite the strength of the field this week.
Francesco Molinari EACH-WAY
0.25 at 67.00
-0.5
Shot 63 in the first round in Ireland last
week and was disqualified for incorrectly signing a scorecard in the second
round. He has only made 1 cut from 3 events here, but his current form is
6/11/3/3 if we forget the DQ last week. He is very high in all round stats
this year and looks like the kind of player like double winner Anders Hansen
who does well round here.
Thomas Levet EACH-WAY
0.25 at 71.00
-0.5
Managed to finish 8th last week with the worse
of the draw in Ireland last week. And had a 8th and 7th here in the last 5
years. Another one like Molinari who is well up in all stat categories this
year, he has added length to his driving but still hits a lot of fairways
and greens. Needs one half of a decent week with the putting to have a
excellent chance.
PGA TOUR - VALERO TEXAS OPEN
This is being played for the last time at
LaCantera before the event moves to a new course in 2010. This event used to
be played in October and have moved to the May date by replacing the defunct
Bell South Classic. However the quality of the field is very poor.
Bob Estes EACH-WAY
0.25 at 51.00
-0.5
A bit of a course specialist back in the early
2000's, his finishes in the event are over the last 10 visits
44/37/15/15/17/mc/10/4 . he has 3 Top 20 finishes in his last 5 events, and
is at his best on short tactical courses, he also performs way over average
in is home state.
EUROPEAN TOUR - IRISH OPEN
Returns to its roots this week with a new
sponsor 3 Mobile and on the Baltray course outside Dublin which hosted the
event in 2004. With inclement weather forecast this week, it will be a test
of patience and resolve at the waterproofs will be on all week. Whilst an
out of form Harrington and an erratic McIlroy dominate the betting there may
be value further down the field, who perform well in Ireland and also on
links courses.
Nick Dougherty EACH-WAY
0.25 at 126.00
+7.56
I have been waiting for him to play on a links
course as he was brought up on them in Merseyside. he has an excellent
record in the Dunhill Links event also played in usually cold and windy
weather he has finished 19/1/27 in that the past few years. There is room of
the tee here and his best finish this year of 13th was in the strong winds
at the Vines in Perth.
Rafael Cabrera Bello EACH-WAY
0.25 at 71.00
-0.5
Possibly only this price due to his lack of
links experience. His last three finishes have been 6/4/11, Including a fast
finishing 70 in the wind and rain and cold in Korea to get a Top 5 place. He
has 8/12 Top 20 finishes this year. And his form is equal to that of players
half his odds. There is a slight risk that he wont be able to perform on
links courses but I will take a risk on that.
Peter Hedblom TOP 20
1 at 9.50
-1
His recent form is very poor, but if we look
to his form in the Emerald Isle his last 5 events in Irish Soil have been
24/7/74/4/19. The last time he played a links course in the Irish open was
in 2003 at Portmarnock where he came 2nd to Michael Campbell. He's either
very hot or cold but worth a chance of one of those weeks now he has
conditions he can perform on an a country he plays his best golf in
TOURNAMENT HEAD-TO-HEAD
Paul McGinley to bt Oliver Wilson
3 at 1.86
-3
McGinley's chances are well documented he was
a junior member on the course, and has been targeting his early season for
this one event his was fourth in this event in 2004 on this very course, and
he was 28th and 3rd the last two time the Irish Open has been held on Links
Courses. Oliver Wilson is on paper and rankings the better player, However
he has struggled since he had his wisdom teeth out in march finishing 70th
in Arnold palmer Invitational and comfortably missing the cut at Augusta,
more importantly he pulled out of the players championship last week the day
before the event, with a bad neck injury and a muscle tear in his ribs. he
is struggling to tee off this week, and any slight twinges of pain will see
him pull out as he wants to be fit and ready for the BMW PGA Championship
next week where he was 2nd last year. I'm very surprised Olympic have risked
this match bet
PGA TOUR - PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP
The Unofficial 5th Major the Players
Championship dominates this weeks schedules, with 47 of the Top 50 playing.
The event is played for the third time in May, it moved in 2007 from its
late March spot. This date change has ensured the course plays very firm and
hard, and quality of ball striking and the importance of hitting fairways
and the small greens is even more imperative. In an event where Tiger has
not had a Top Ten Place in the last 6 years, I will look to two proven
performers on the course, and who revel on hard firm conditions. Both do
have fragile temperaments however.
Jim Furyk EACH-WAY
0.5 at 41.00
+2.83
Has a 11th and 10th in his last three starts
in the Masters and at Quail Hollow and has made 14/15 cuts here and his last
five events here read 27/28/3/mc/5. With the par fives here reachable for
most players, his lack of length wont be inconvenienced. And the course will
play hard and firm so his accurate driving will be an advantage, and more
importantly his putting stats have improved dramatically recently where he
has finished in the Top 20 of putters ion 4/6 starts.
Ernie Els EACH-WAY
0.5 at 51.00
-1
I'm scratching my head here as I never though
I would back the Big Easy this year, however at this price he must be
backed. He finished 5th last time out in Korea where he ranked 1st in GIR
and 1st in scrambling. He has made 14/15 cuts here and has finished here in
the last three years 6/37/8. More importantly, he will relish the dry and
firm projected conditions. He is paired with Tiger for the first two days
though but has a favourable early tee off on the first day.
TOURNAMENT HEAD-TO-HEAD'S
Ernie Els to bt Anthony Kim
3 at 1.90
+2.7
I would back the consistent Els to beat Kim
every event here on level terms, Kim averages 76 on the course, his ball
striking this year has been terrible having ranked outside the Top 50 in
fairways hit and Greens in Regulation in his last five events. Els, despite
his lack of success this year, has beaten him 4 of the last 5 times they
have played in the same event, and he has a 2-0 head to head record on the
course.
Brian Gay to bt Stewart Cink
2 at 1.90
-2
Gay comes here after two weeks off after his 8
shot victory at the Heritage, where he was in the Top 3 in GIR, Driving
Accuracy, Scrambling and Putts per round. He has made 12 of his last 13
cuts, and finished 32nd here last year. Stewart Cink, despite a good record
on the course has not made the Top 30 in full field event since June 2008 a
run of 18 events. Gay has beaten him 4 or of the last 5 events they have
contested. He is very low in GIR and Driving Accuracy stats and I would make
Gay nearer to 1.75 to win this one.
SPECIAL BET
Number of Balls in water on the 17th Hole -
OVER 55.5
4 at 1.83
-4
A novelty market based on the famous par 3
17th hole island green. Since the event was moved to May the stats for this
bet have been 65 last year and 92 the year before. I think Paddy's have
based this price on stats from 2003 onwards. However with the change of date
the course now plays a lot firmer then the damp slower greens of pre 2007,
and possibly more importantly, the prevailing wind for this time of year and
for the week is from the South West which makes this hole directly downwind,
where pre 2007 it used to play into the wind, making the hole a lot easier.
Conditions are favourable for the week, but winds are forecast to pick up
each day for the afternoon and with the greens so firm I think the compilers
have made a blip.
PGA TOUR - QUAIL HOLLOW CHAMPIONSHIP
All the golf worlds eyes will be on the fabled
Quail Hollow course for the Quail Hollow Championship, formerly known as the
Wachovia Championship in Charlotte North Carolina. Despite the old sponsors
being taken over by Wells Fargo(with Federal help) the event hasn't
diminished in the depth of its field with the World Top 4 players appearing
and 7 out of the Top 10 as well. However in an event, and in a sport, where
the bookmakers are increasingly too scared to have an opinion, there rarely
seems to be any value in Outright markets due to golfers very rarelybeing
than one price bigger with any bookmaker, if these do occur they are usually
cut very quickly. However we can at least be thankful that H2H's still can
be very attractive with a certain amount of due diligence and acumen. I have
picked three in this event, two based on my opinion miss matches and the
last purely on a value perspective.
TOURNAMENT HEAD-TO-HEAD'S
Vijay Singh to bt A Scott
3 at 1.85
+2.55
Adam Scott since his second place in Hawaii in
the second week of January has played woefully, he freely admits his swing
is in dire shape, his emotional state, after the break up of his long-term
relationship with Thomas Bjorn's nanny is in freefall, even though public
outings with Kate Hudson and Anna Ivanovic on the beach certainly would put
a smile on my face. He has missed his last three cuts and has a highest
finish of 33rd in his last 5 events, he was closer to last in important
driving accuracy and GIR stats in those weeks. Vijay Singh is still coming
back from surgery in January but his 30th place in the Masters, which would
have been lot higher but for a sloppy last 9 holes in the last round, does
seem to be improving. More importantly his driving accuracy and GIR stats
are getting a lot better. Both golfers have good course form here Adam Scott
8/24/3/16 Singh 17/7/38/1/10/2. However giving Singh's work ethic and Scotts
fragile state and that he is around 40/1 in the betting and Scott 80/1, he
really should be more like a 1.70 shot here.
Charles Howell to bt S Cink
3 at 2.00
-3
For the third time this season Howell puked
close to the line when odds on for the Zurich with 4 holes to go. However he
has been paired against a golfer who has had one top 25 finish in a stroke
play event since June 2008. Stewart Cinks last five events read
62/mc/30/59/52/mc/mc, Charles Howell's 2/37/58/12/2/21. Cink record on the
course is first-class 8/5/26 however he did have similarly good records at
Augusta and Hilton head where he missed the cut and came tied 62nd. Too much
has been factored into his course form not current form, And Howell should
be clear favourite here, and we can get 2.00 even with a tie in the mix this
is a price worth taking.
Phil Mickelson to bt T Woods
1.5 at 3.00
-1.5
Woods comes here with rumours about a imminent
split from his coach Hank Haney, insight from players that he is drawing and
sometimes hooking the ball a lot with his irons. That aside in three like
events this year Mickelson has finished in front of Tiger three times.
Although Mickelson continues to miss a lot of fairways his short game is in
such good shape he can bounce back so quickly, with 4 par fives reachable in
two and two par fours he can get close to driving he has a decent chance
again to finish in front of Woods. Mickelson's length of the tee was
prodigious at Augusta he outdrove Woods by some 20 yards each hole in the
last round and despite from initial looks the Quail Hollow Course not being
unsuited to Mickelson's game his finishes here are 12/3/35/33/7/5. I make
Mickelson around a 2.50 chance here at the most so 3.00 is over the odds.
EUROPEAN TOUR - OPEN DE ESPANA
Playing on a new course this year the highly
rated PGA Catalunya . We have a decent field this week, but with all the big
names of the European Tour either in USA or preparing for the Players next
week, it certainly lacks the interest and drama expected this week at Quail
Hollow. That aside I'm looking for two golfers in the Top 20 betting, who
although both hail from Scotland are very different in age.
Calum McCaulay EACH-WAY
0.25 at 101.00
-0.5
Calum McCaulay TOP 20
1 at 4.50
-1
The Walker Cup Star and Eisenhower Trophy
winner of 2008, has made a very good start to the tour this year. He missed
out in a play off by one shot in Madeira after closing with 67-64 in the
last two rounds, after an understandable let down the following week in
Andalucia where he came 56th he came back with a bang with a fast finishing
12th in Portugal. His game is built round a solid long game and round a
tight course where accuracy off the tee will be crucial he can give a good
account of himself. With quite strong winds forecast for the 2nd and 3rd
round he should be at home. he may well follow his Walker Cup teammate
Michael Hoey into the winners enclosure soon.
Andrew Coltart TOP 20
1 at 4.50
-1
After getting his card after finishing 11th on
this course in Q School last year Coltart finally has the choice where to
play rather than rely on Sponsors exemptions, he also came 17th here in 2000
the last time a full European Tour event was played on the course. he has
finished 11/21/6 in his lastly three events, and missing the winds and rain
of Korea last week will be a bonus, Like Macaulay hits lot of greens and is
a expert scrambler, he will appreciate the winds of the 2nd and 3rd rounds
this week
EUROPEAN TOUR - BALLANTINES CHAMPIONSHIP
2nd staging of this event on the Prinx course
on Jeju Island South Korea. The course is quite European in design and has a
lot of characteristics of Scottish heathland courses. The forecast looks
cold and windy for the week, which should favour the European Players.
Marten Lafeber TOP 10
1 at 9.00
-1
Marten Lafeber TOP 20
2 at 4.50
-2
Has just come off two good events including a
12th place in Portugal where he was in the last two ball of the final round.
He is a good wind player and in a course where accuracy off the tee and
quality iron shots are needed he will relish the windy cool conditions, a
bit like a summer's day in Holland ! He was 24th here last year.
TOURNAMENT HEAD-TO-HEAD
P McGinley to bt Fred Couples
3 at 2.00
+3
McGinley was 3rd here last year and had a good
final round last week to get a Top Ten in China Open. Couples however does
have two third places in his last four events in strong fields on the PGA
Tour. However he also has two missed cuts, including at beloved Augusta two
weeks ago. In fact apart from those two third places he has a highest finish
of 63rd in his last 9 events including 5 missed cuts. My main concerns are
the strong winds and very cold weather forecast this week, Boom Boom bad
back is well chronicled and he is severely inconvenienced by cool
temperatures. He also has a very high ball flight which isn't ideal for the
forecast. I make McGinley favourite here so 2.00 is a welcome bonus.
EUROPEAN TOUR - VOLVO CHINA OPEN
Peter O'Malley EACH-WAY
0.5 at 81.00
-1
I would normally only go 1/4 pt each way here,
however Corals generous offer tempted me to double my play. He was in the
doldrums all last year but has re-focussed to some good form in 2009. He
missed the cut in the New Zealand Open last time out, but had a 15th In NZ
PGA and a runners up in the Moonah Classic the week before, He plays well on
tough courses which demand accurate driving and good iron play, the Beijing
CBD course demands both. He did miss the cut here last year in terrible
weather, however the course although still narrow is playing dry and firm so
his lengthh off the tee will not be compromised. Lastly his record in events
in China read 23/mc/15/6/39/8/8/15. It is a very weak event this year with
over 50+ no hopers in the field.
PGA TOUR - VERIZON HERITAGE CLASSIC
One of the oldest events played on the same
Hilton Head Pete Dye Course since 1971. The course is a shotmakers course
and players with the skill to shape the ball rather than blast it off the
tee are more favoured.
Matt Kuchar EACH-WAY
0.25 at 67.00
-0.5
A player who went to college up the road and
bases a lot of his practise rounds in the Myrtle Beach Area. He was a fast
finishing 7th here last year, and his three previous visits here were
61/10/32. His current form is good and his last 6 events read
12/39/57/14/6/25. He is the kind of no frills player who should do well this
week.
Kevin Na - TOP 10
2 at 4.25
-2
A revelation this year, as he usually plays
very well in the desert and then plays poorly away from the West Coast,
however this year he has continued his good form to Florida so his last five
events read 19/11/8/5/25, And he also has 2 other Top 5's this year in
Phoenix and Hawaii. His course form here is very good also with four
previous visits here finishing 17/4/52/11. I was hoping for bigger than 33/1
for the Outright but am happy to play the Top Ten instead. His form is
really as equal if not better than anyone in the field and he is double the
price of Furyk and Villegas.
Vaughn Taylor - 1st Rnd Leader EACH-WAY
0.25 at 81.00
-0.5
Always a fast starter for events, he is in the
first group off on Thursday when conditions should be at a premium. He has
actually finished 1st or tied for the lead twice this year after one round,
Houston Open and Bob Hope Classic, he led this event here in 2006 with an
opening 63, and has 2 Top 5 finishes here in the last 3 years. A very nervy
last round and weekend player, but based on his first round stats and his
course record and his favourable tee time should be more like a 50/1 shot.
PGA TOUR - US MASTERS
Our annual tip down Magnolia Drive starts
again on Thursday (US Time), with the bookies expecting a Tiger v Mickelson
Shoot out. I will await further news from the course before I post my
selections for the event. But here's an 'exotic' to go with. There seems to
be little real value in the Outright markets this year, except one player.
Nick Watney EACH-WAY
0.75 at 51.00
-1.5
Watney who was a respectable 11th here last
year on his debut. He was in the Top 5 in Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy
and GIR that week. He has been a revelation this season, his last 6 events
have been 4/12/2/59/22/1, and his ball striking and scrambling have been
first class. he is also one of the longest drivers on Tour which is a great
help round here. In an event where players like Harrington, Goosen are close
to half his price he offers a value alternative the the BiG Two.
Top US Player Without Woods
Brandt Snedeker
0.25 at 41.00
-0.25
In a market which Mickelson dominates, he's
around 5/2 with most books, I am looking for value down the field in an open
looking market. He won this market last year, when he was 3rd to Immelman,
he had a nice 'pipe opener' two weeks ago in Bay Hill where he finished 17th
after a bad first round. He is also a great scrambler and putter
particularly on bent greens, which is what we have this week.
Top US Player Without Woods
Steve Flesch
0.25 at 71.00
-0.25
A bit of a Augusta specialist his past three
events here read 5/29/17. He seems to play his best golf on tough courses he
was 7th in the PGA last year, and had a fine 7th place last month on the
tough Copperhead course in the Transitions Championship.
TOP EUROPEAN PLAYER
Miguel Angel Jimenez E-W
0.25 at 41.00
-0.5
With Harrington, Casey and Garcia too short in
the market I'm looking to somewhat of a course specialist to have a high
finish here. Jimenez, has poor form in Florida the past two events, but he
is one of those players who plays well on certain courses, namely Dubai and
St Andrews, He does have a decent majors record in the USA, he has had two
runners up finishes in majors before in the States, his last seven events
here have been 8/44/11/31/mc/10/9. And has been placed in this market 4
times in the last seven years, he actually led the event with 10 holes to
play in 2006. With warmer less windy weather forecast for the event week, he
has a decent chance in this market this week.
TOURNAMENT HEAD-TO-HEADS
Lee Westwood to bt A Romero
3 at 1.85
+2.55
Strange one here, with Sportsbet in my opinion
taking too much credence in Romero's form of last year and 8th here on his
debut in 2008. Apart from his out of the blue 3rd at Riviera this year his
highest finish is 32nd on the PGA Tour this year, and there were only 32
runners in that event. he is wildly talented but more prone to blow a gasket
than buckle down to grind it over a tough Augusta course. Westwood is the
opposite, he makes cuts for his tea, and although now very nervy at the
death of an event, looks like he is finally coming to terms with the Augusta
course. he has been out of the Top 25 only twice in his last 12 events, and
has finishes of 11th and 30th here in the last two years. More importantly
he was Number 1 in GIR last week in Houston, but more importantly in the Top
20 in putting, his putting stats have also been good at Augusta in the last
2 years 10th and 9th in Putting average. Over 72 Holes invariably the
Tortoise beats the hare!
Retief Goosen to bt S Garcia
3 at 1.87
-3
I'm hardly Goosen's biggest fan, however in
the Outright market Goosen is best priced 25/1 and Garcia is around 40/1.
Garcia's last two starts in the US have been 31st and 77th, where he shot an
81 in the final round in Houston. Goosen has a win three weeks ago followed
by a miss cut in Bay Hill. However if we look at the course records of the
players since the changes to Augusta were made in 2005 Garcia's record is
mc/mc/46/mc, whereas Goosen is 17/2/3/3. Goosen averages three strokes a
round less than Garcia here in the last four years. Garcia has yet to break
par in any round here the last four years. And on greens which are some of
the most severe anywhere his putting stats of 65/45/38/65 hardly inspire
confidence, incidentally Garcia GIR stats his last two events have been
60/38 whereas prior to that he was 1st in his previous two starts.
EUROPEAN TOUR - OPEN DE PORTUGAL
The event is held on the much lauded Oitavos
Dunes course just outside Estoril on the Atlantic Coast for the fourth time
in 5 years. Its quite a short links. dune like course where the holes thread
through tall sand dunes. The forecast for the week is for strong winds all
week, and the winning score of 18 under last years looks like it will be
distant memory I have gone for a few golfers who although not the best
putters in the world play well in the wind and on Links Courses.
Gareth Maybin EACH-WAY
0.25 at 41.00
-0.5
He should have won possibly two events already
this year losing out in a play off to Richard Sterne in South African Open
and bogeying the easy last hole in Malaysia to miss out of a play off by one
two. He has a proven amateur record on Links courses and has been practicing
hard in the past month in Ireland. He will relish the conditions and is
right up there in terms of best In Europe for distance and accuracy off the
tee and greens in regulation, he needs a half decent week on the greens to
have a great chance.
Stephen Gallacher EACH-WAY
0.25 at 101.00
-0.5
For a player who has missed the cut twice in
his last two events ,he may seem a strange choice, however he has been 30th
and 11th here in his last two visits to the course including a low round of
the week 63 in the second round last year. he was 3rd in GIR last week his
first event back from a month off where he contracted a chest virus in
Dubai, he had 69 putts in two rounds last week. He has won on a links course
in windy weather before the Dunhill Links Championship. And I have had an
eye on him to perform on a tough course in windy conditions all year, we now
might get those projected conditions.
Rhys Davies EACH-WAY
0.25 at 51.00
-0.5
Fine Top 5 last week, in his first decent
finish on European Soil, he bases himself mostly in Asia as he failed to get
his card in Europe in 2009. He is also the tour pro at Royal Porthcawl in
Wales one of the most respected links courses in the UK which is very prone
to the elements. His low ball flight and great scrambling skills look the
ideal player to be with this week
PGA TOUR - SHELL HOUSTON OPEN
15 of the Worlds Top 20 are here, as they all
fine tune their game for Augusta next week. The courses greens, run off
areas and rough has been cut to emulate the conditions at the Masters next
week.
Rory McIlroy EACH-WAY
0.5 at 29.00
-1
The 18 year old wunderkid impressed me a lot
in Florida, his finishes were possibly worse than he played, he did find it
hard to deal with the thick, clingy rough round the greens, where his lack
of experience showed. Here the areas round the greens are all tightly mown,
so he should prefer the course; his prodigious distance of the tee should
help on the long par fives, as few will be able to reach them in two this
week. With a few players like Harrington and Mickelson using this event as a
prep for next week, he could gain his first victory in the US.
PGA TOUR - ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL
The last leg of the Florida Swing, the event
formerly called the Bay Hill Classic, hasn't the attracted the best field,
even though Tiger Woods is playing is third comeback event. I think he will
'train on' for from his 8th place at Doral, and wouldn't put anyone off the
13/5 available, however he does have a afternoon tee time in the First
Round, where the wind is forecast to pick up. Most of the bookmakers are
doing a Without Woods market, and I have targeted to young stars who seem to
have stepped up to the plate this year.
Oliver Wilson EACH-WAY
WITHOUT WOODS MARKET
0.25 at 67.00
-0.5
He was 4th in his last start in the WGC event
at Doral, and that came on top of his 9th place in the Accenture World
Matchplay, he was the Number 1 ranked scrambler in both events, and very
high up in putting stats in both events. He has yet to win on the PGA or
European Tours, but has 5 runners up spots, however the beauty of this
market is that Woods performance in the event, has no influence on your win
or place part of the bet.
Louis Oosthuizen EACH-WAY
WITHOUT WOODS MARKET
0.25 at 81.00
-0.5
Louis Oosthuizen, 20th in Doral, where he was
4th in GIR, and a lowly 44th in putting stats. he has carried on his great
form in the Gulf where he was outstanding. His last five stroke play events
read 20/7/7/2/2. He finally is living up to his promise, At odds of 80/1
Without Tiger, if he continues to hit the ball as well as he has, even a
mediocre week with the putter would mean he can really contend.
LPGA TOUR - J GOLF PHOENIX INVITATIONAL
Michelle Wie EACH-WAY
0.5 at 34.00
-1
Lastly on the LPGA Tour at the J Phoenix LPGA
Invitational. We see the return of Michelle Wie to to the LPGA Tour where
she finished runner up to Angela Stanford in Hawaii in the SBS Open, she led
by four shots with 9 holes to play. She now has moved to IMG to manage her
affairs, and is fully focused for the first time in her career in playing on
the LPGA Tour, she desperately wants to make the USA Solheim Cup team this
year. Even though this event has the strongest field of the year, it is on a
new course and she got there early to get extra practice on the course. She
plays well in the Desert, the course has four par fives where her distance
off the tee will be favoured. With Golfers like Creamer, Shin and Pettersen
currently out of sorts she looks a decent prospect to contend against the
form players of Ochoa and Stanford and break her LPGA Duck.
EUROPEAN TOUR - MADEIRA ISLANDS OPEN
A new course for the event after over 20 yards
at the Santa Serra course, we move to the island of Porte Sante and a Seve
Ballesteros designed course. Even though its a new course, it will play like
the old course always be susceptible to winds, and the course is more links
in design. I am looking to two small investments this week in proven wind
and links players who are both in decent form.
Michael Hoey EACH-WAY
0.25 at 41.00
-0.5
Michael Hoey, the ex-Walker Cup player seems
to be coming to form, he was runner up in the well contested African Open to
Goosen in Late January, and he has played well on Links courses and on
similar like course as this week. he is very accurate off the tee, and the
windier conditions the better. His last three finishes on The European Tour
have been 22/11/10, in a much weaker event he can propser.
Andrew Coltart EACH-WAY
0.25 at 51.00
-0.5
Andrew Coltart, won his card back last year at
Q School last year, and had a great Top 10 in a strong field in Qatar in
January. He hasn't finished worse than 28th In Madeira in his last four
events, he obviously has a affinity to the place, he is in lot better form
now than when he was 7th in the event in 2005, he should like the more open
links side of the course, and its not overly long. He is a tremendous wind
player and 50/1 in an event which is basically a Challenge Tour Event is
worth a small play.
PGA TOUR - TRANSITIONS CHAMPIONSHIP
First event held under new sponsors, has been
under previous guises also the Tampa Bay, Chrysler Championship and PODS
Championship in its last 8 years, however it has always been played at the
Copperhead course, which is situated just outside Tampa Bay on the Gulf of
Mexico. In an event where the leading protagonists all carry either poor
form or poor win to place ratios. I am looking for a couple of players in
Top Ten Markets.
Harrison Frazar TOP 10
1 at 15.00
-1
Although he has missed his last two cuts here,
he comes here with a 13th and a 20th place in his last two events. And
finishes if 13th and 16th In Florida. More importantly he was 14th and 2nd
in Putting stats his last two events, which has always been previously his
achilles heel. With a bit of room of the tee he can give a good account of
himself this week.
Nick O'Hern TOP 10
1 at 15.00
-1
Has now two events under his belt after knee
surgery in the winter, he is now fully fit, and also has a base In Florida
where he lives when he plays the PGA Tour, his last four events in Florida
read 44/18/32/6. In a relatively weak field PGA Tour event, 14/1 is just
plain overpriced, on a player who is still being priced on his form when he
was carrying an injury.
TOURNAMENT HEAD-TO-HEADS
M Calcavecchia to bt R Goosen
3 at 1.91
-3
Calcavecchia has finished 22/6/4 his last
three events on the PGA Tour, and his last three events here read 14/1/19.
Retief Goosen last three events 66/first round loser in Accenture and 69th.
He has missed his last two cuts here and was 44th here in 2005. More
importantly he was last for GIR last week in Doral. And he does seem to
throw in the towel when not in contention, whereas Calcavecchia needs a good
event to give him a chance of getting in the US Masters.
Tim Clark to bt R Goosen
3 at 1.87
-3
We have highlighted the fragile temperament of
Goosen already Centrebet have him against the ultra consistent match-bettors
friend Tim Clark who has not finished out of the top 37 in 11 events in fact
he has 7 top 15's finishes in those 11 events he also has a 11th and 18th in
his last three starts on the course.
LPGA TOUR - MASTERCARD CLASSIC
I don't normally give tips for this tour , due
to there being little original pricing by most bookmakers, the cut and paste
tool is used by most firms on this tour.
Jane Park EACH-WAY
0.25 at 51.00
-0.5
However one player who seems with a decent
shout this week is Jane Park @ 50/1. Although 8 of the Worlds Top Ten play
here and also 13 of the Top 20. The former US Amateur Champion seems to have
started the 2009 season like she did 2008, she is in better form coming here
than last year where she came 3rd. She was tied 6th in the HSBC Championship
in Singapore and was 28/10 in her previous events. She is at her best on
tough courses which yield few birdies, this course the Bosque Real Country
Club is one of the toughest on course. She looks a value alternative to
Ochoa and Creamer et al.
WGC - CA CHAMPIONSHIP
Third staging of the event as a World Golf
Championship at the famed 'Blue Monster' course at Doral, Florida. The
course plays a lot more exposed these days after storms decimated many of
its trees. The course is in good condition and is playing firm and fast this
year.
Ross Fisher EACH-WAY
0.25 at 81.00
-0.5
Played well here last year when nowhere near
the player he is now. Was in the top 10 for driving and greens hit last year
and was only let down by his putter. Is now coached by short game guru Mark
Roe and that paid dividends last year as he won the European Open and had 5
other top 10's and is now ranked 27'th in the world. 13'th in Dubai and a
semi-finalist at the World Matchplay, now has the confidence to know he
belongs at this level. Very long off the tee and the par 72 set up with four
reachable par 5's should be right up his street.
PGA TOUR - PUERTO RICO OPEN
Second staging of the event at the Tom Kite
designed Trump International course. At 7,600 yards long it was thought to
favour the big hitters, but with 2 par 5's over 600 yards and playing 3
shotters and with the wind coming very much into play, as last years results
proved, moderate, strategic hitters can thrive here.
Kevin Stadler EACH-WAY
0.5 at 41.00
-1
In a weak field (now even weaker following the
high profile withdrawals of JB Holmes & Fredrik Jacobson) Stadler looks
decent value. He finished 4'th here last year and comes into the event in
good nick following a 14'th at Pebble Beach and 20'th at the Mayakoba
Classic, both wind exposed courses. He also plays well outside America
having won the J Walker Classic in Perth.
TOURNAMENT HEAD-TO-HEAD
Kevin Stadler to bt B Snedeker
2 at 1.91
-2
Whilst the case for Stadler this week has
already been outlined and despite not wanting to put too many eggs in the
same basket Snedeker seems worth opposing this week. Snedeker has missed 5
of his last 6 cuts and looked very out of sorts at the Honda where he hit
some very loose irons and putted badly also. Even at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am
on an easy course set up he still managed to shoot over par for his 3
rounds. Given also the fact Snedeker hasn't had the advantage of playing the
course Stadler seems to have quite an edge here.
PGA TOUR - HONDA CLASSIC
After the excitement of the World Matchplay
the PGA tour travels over the East Coast for the first leg of the Florida
Swing, the Honda Classic. The Palm Beach Gardens Champions course was
recently redesigned by Tom Fazio from an earlier Jack Nicklaus design.
Whilst the likes of Garcia, Els and Villegas are at the top of the betting I
like the look of two golfers down the field.
Davis Love EACH-WAY
0.5 at 36.00
-1
Love won his last start in Florida The Miracle
Classic in October, and has been 30th and 13th in his two starts here. he is
a proven player in windy conditions, it will be breezy all week, and putts
very well on Bermuda greens, which are the greens this week. He seems a
value alternative to the leading players this week
Bart Bryant WIN
0.25 at 151.00
-0.25
Bart Bryant TOP 5
0.5 at 31.00
-0.5
Bart Bryant TOP 10
1 at 11.00
-1
Bryant is a great player in Florida, his last
four events in Florida read 2/14/14/24. Including a 24th here last year, he
has been Number One in Driving Accuracy in 2 out of his last 4 events, he
was 4th and 5th in the other two, this course demands accuracy off the tee,
and well struck iron play. He, like Love is lot better putter on Bermuda
greens, and I would expect a decent run for our money.
NATIONWIDE/AUSTRALIAN PGA TOUR - NZ PGA
CHAMPIONSHIP
TOURNAMENT HEAD-TO-HEAD
Gavin Coles to bt Scott Laycock
2 at 1.90
+1.8
At first glances we have picked two out of
form golfers. However although their most recent start both missed the cut
in the Moonah Classic, we have on a very idiosyncratic course vast
differences in course form. Gavin Coles like Laycock missed the cut last
week however prior to that he had a 3rd in the penultimate event on the
Nationwide Tour, he has played at the Clearwater Course twice before and won
here in 2004 and was 39th here in 2003. Scott Laycock missed the cut at
Moonah Links, and although prior to that he has some high finishes in Non
Vida Tour events, this is a step up in class, he has made the cut only once
, on his favourite Vines course, in his last 4 Australian PGA events. His
form at this course is woeful it reads mc/mc/mc/mc/mc !! Enough said....
RECORD
MONTH
RESULT
STAKES
ROI
SEASON 2009
?
?
?
TOTAL
0.00
0
0%
*OnThePunt
welcomed a new golf analyst on March 3, 2009
2010 U.S. MASTERS
Tiger Woods 3.50
Phil Mickelson 6.00
P Harrington 13.00
Lee Westwood 17.00
Rory Mcilroy 17.00
Geoff Ogilvy 19.00
Steve Stricker 19.00
Retief Goosen 21.00
Paul Casey 21.00
Sergio Garcia 26.00
Jim Furyk 26.00
Ernie Els 29.00
H Stenson 29.00
-1
+1
OZ
'10 GOLF MAJORS
