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DAILY BETTING NEWS
All the latest
Carnival news, views and betting moves, posted direct from the bookies and
OnThePunt's editor |
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MARKET COMPARISONS
Don't get ripped off - make sure you get the
best price in the big races - updated the day before each major race
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WEDNESDAY 24 SEPTEMBER |
FROM |
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BETSTAR LAYS RAHEEB TO LOSE $1 MILLION IN COX PLATE
BETSTAR today laid a bet to lose $1 million
on Raheeb in the Cox Plate after one daring punter sensationally backed him
at $41.00.
Formally trained by Tim Martin and now in
his 1st preparation with Anthony Cummings, the lightly raced Raheeb had an
impressive last start win in the Cameron Handicap at Newcastle beating a
class field by over 3 lengths.
"It is good to see that he is finally
putting it altogether and consequently punters will want to get on early"
said BETSTARS Racing Manager Michael Horne.
Raheeb is currently a $4.00 favourite for
the Epsom Handicap on 4th October; if he can win we will see him firm even
more for the Cox Plate, added Horne. Currently BETSTAR have him at $26.00 to
win the Cox Plate.
In other betting News, BETSTAR has also
taken $30,000 Each Way on Romneya in the Thousand Guineas at $4.60. This
exciting 3 year old filly, who is bred in the purple being by Red Ransom out
of super racemare Mannington, had a very unlucky last start in the Tranquil
Stakes, being beaten by Ortensia. Prior to this she ran second to Lord
Tavistock at Flemington who is near the top of betting in the Caulfield
Guineas.
Romneya's breeding value will skyrocket if
she can win the Group 1 Thousand Guineas - and in turn looks to be a
valuable investment to trainer Lee Freedman and her Darley owners. Currently
she is second in the market at $4.00 while Samantha Miss retains favouritism
at $3.20 in the Thousand Guineas.
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MONDAY 15 SEPTEMBER |
FROM |
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SEPTIMUS HEAVILY BACKED AFTER ESCAPING
PENALTY
European galloper Septimus is now a clear
favourite for November's Melbourne Cup after he escaped a penalty for his
runaway win in the Irish St Leger over the weekend.
Eskander's Betstar has been forced to bring
Septimus into $6 after two big bets were taken following the "no penalty"
announcement by RVL handicapper Greg Carpenter.
"We've just laid two big bets on Septimus,"
Betstar racing manager Michael Horne said.
"We took $24,000 at $7.25 to win $150,000
and then $27,000 at $6.50 to win another $150,000."
"He's now into $6 outright favourite after
not receiving a penalty for the Melbourne Cup."
"When people line up the form through
Honolulu (who was penalised for a Group Two win), the price will shorten
further."
"Honolulu ran second to Purple Moon in last
year's Ebor. He then ran third, Mahler was second, in the St Leger."
"They filled the placings behind Efficient
in the Melbourne Cup last year."
"Septimus wouldn't be mentioned in the same
sentence as Honolulu. They are in a different class."
"This horse (Septimus) will be $4 on raceday,
if not shorter. He is the best stay in the world currently."
Horne believes Efficient, who was the
outright favourite leading into last weekend, has been weighted up to his
best by the handicapper.
"Efficient has gone from 54kg to 58kg in
this year's Cup."
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THURSDAY 15 NOVEMBER |
FROM |
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ZIPPING AND BELCENTRA HEAD SANDOWN MARKETS
Classy gelding Zipping, coming off a gallant
fourth in the recent Melbourne Cup, is the early $2.40 favourite for
Saturday’s Group Two Sandown Classic (2400m).
The Lloyd Williams owned performer will be
stepping out under the name of John Sadler for the first time since this
week’s resignation of former trainer Graeme Rogerson.
Zipping, at $2.40, is well clear of his
nearest rivals Blue Monday and The Fuzz, stablemates from the Hayes stable
both marked at $8.
Speaking of stablemates, Zipping’s barn mate
Extend is the next in the market at $8.50 after his impressive last start
win at Flemington.
Meanwhile, the Lee Freedman trained filly
Belcentra is the early favourite with Betstar for the Group Two Sandown
Guineas (1600m).
A runaway winner in listed grade at her most
recent outing, Belcentra is a $3.90 elect.
Others given a great chance include Zacroona
($6.50), El Mandon ($6.50), Schilling ($8) and Masked Assassin ($9.50).
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TUESDAY 13 NOVEMBER |
FROM |
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MALDIVIAN AND KIBBUTZ HEAD 2008 SPRING MARKETS
Two of the stars of the 2007 Spring Carnival
have been installed the early favourites for Melbourne’s big three races for
the 2008 Carnival.
Leading bookmaking operation Eskander’s
Betstar has released markets for the 2008 carnival today.
The release of markets enables punters to
grab the early odds about their spring fancy with some of the early risk
removed.
Any bets placed on horses who are not
entered at the initial nomination stage next year will be refunded.
Maldivian, one of the revelations of the
spring carnival, is the early favourite for the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate.
The Mark Kavanagh trained son of Zabeel is
the $14 elect for the Caulfield Cup.
Next in the Caulfield Cup market at $16 are
Fiumicino and Kibbutz, while VRC Oaks winner Arapaho Miss shares the third
of betting at $17 with this year’s winner Master O’Reilly and top galloper
Zipping.
Just behind them in the betting for the mile
and a half feature are Devil Moon, Littorio, Pompeii Ruler, Serious Speed,
Tuesday Joy and Weekend Hussler.
Maldivian also heads the betting for next
year’s Cox Plate (2040m) at Moonee Valley.
At $13 he is the popular elect with Betstar
ahead of this year’s winner El Segundo and boom three-year-old Weekend
Hussler, both marked at $15.
Miss Finland, Pompeii Ruler and Viva Pataca
share the third line of betting at $17.
Next at $21 for the Cox Plate are Devil
Moon, Fiumicino and Mentality.
Meanwhile, recent impressive Victoria Derby
winner Kibbutz is the opening $15 favourite for the 2008 Melbourne Cup
(3200m) at Flemington.
Prepared by David Hayes, Kibbutz is two
dollars shorter in betting than equal second favourites Efficient and Master
O’Reilly (both at $17).
Sharing the third line of betting are
Arapaho Miss, Fiumicino, Littorio, Meisho Samson and Tuesday Joy.
Those aspirants listed at $26 are Light
Vision, Maldivian, Pop Rock, Purple Moon, Tosho Knight and Zipping.
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FRIDAY 9 NOVEMBER |
FROM |
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BIG BETS ROLLING IN FOR EMIRATES
Punters are getting into the groove on the
eve of the fourth and final day of the Melbourne Cup Carnival with
Eskander’s Betstar.
Interest in tomorrow’s Group One Emirates
Stakes is strong with three runners particularly proving popular with
punters.
Earlier today Betstar took a $75,000 win bet
on star three-year-old Weekend Hussler at $2.20. He’s now into $2.05 and is
a firm favourite for the mile feature.
Lee Freedman’s lightly raced but highly
talented performer Sonic Quest has also attracted strong interest since
$7.50 was offered yesterday.
Today the bets on Sonic Quest have included
$1,000 at $7, $2,000 at $6.50 and $8,000 at $5.50. Sonic Quest is now at $5.
A $2,500 bet on outsider Orange County has
seen his price slashed from $41 to $23.
Meanwhile, Miss Andretti and Gold Edition,
as expected continue to dominate the market for the Age Classic.
Miss Andretti is at $1.45, while Gold
Edition is the clear second pick at $3.50.
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FRIDAY 9 NOVEMBER |
FROM |
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CENTREBET PLUNGE ON SONIC QUEST TO WIN EMIRATES!
* Lee Freedman's flying galloper Sonic Quest
continues to be heavily fancied on Centrebet to bring down star
three-year-old Weekend Hussler in this Saturday's Group 1 Emirates Stakes at
Flemington.
Centrebet's Neil Evans said four-year-old
Sonic Quest, who has only missed a place once in 10 starts, has been smashed
from $7.00 into $5.00 in the mile classic via a string of big bets, and
loomed as the only rival to favourite Weekend Hussler who has eased to $2.25
from $2.10!
"Sonic Quest has won six from 10, and his
last-start victory at Moonee Valley proves he's at his best over 1600m and
with plenty of galloping room," Evans said. "And we believe that race will
continue to prove a very strong formline."
Evans said the moment we opened the Emirates
book, the money came for Sonic Quest. "Weekend Hussler is a star well and
truly on the rise. He smashed them in the Caulfield Guineas over 1600m and
then came back on Derby Day to win the Coolmore Stakes (1200m) down the
straight. But now he goes to open class against some seasoned
sprinter-milers, and while on quality and at the weights he looks to have
nearly all their measure, Sonic Quest is a genuine threat, and the money has
continued to pour in," Evans added.
"Weekend Hussler is drawn wide and could be
under the odds, while Sonic Quest was certainly better value than Bart
Cummings' Cox Plate runner-up Wonderful World who has eased from $6.00 to
$7.00."
Evans said the Paul Dawson-trained Roman
Squire had been specked by punters firming from $19.00 into $15.00!
* Meanwhile, Centrebet is not prepared to
concede Lee Freedman's world champion mare Miss Andretti automatically has
the better of Toowoomba rival Gold Edition in their sprinting re-match in
the Group 1 The Age Classic (1200m) down the Flemington straight.
"We opened Miss Andretti up at $1.50 which
is about as good as you can get and Gold Edition at $3.00," Evans said.
"Miss Andretti came back to the track brilliantly at Moonee Valley, but Gold
Edition will be much better this time back at Flemington where she can
dictate more over the straight six furlongs. She will bowl along more
freely, and is certainly capable of turning the tables on Miss Andretti."
Evans said last-start Flemington winner
Swick had been specked early by punters at $12.00!
* And Lovetrista has opened a $2.25
favourite on Centrebet to win tomorrow's NZ Bloodstock 1000 Guineas! "Lovtrista
has plenty of quality, and this isn't a strong Guineas. I think she's a good
thing."
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THURSDAY 8 NOVEMBER |
FROM |
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SUPER 'SONIC' CAN BRING DOWN HOT 'HUSSLER'!
* Leading bookmaker Centrebet says Lee
Freedman's highly consistent galloper Sonic Quest is primed to lower the
boom on star three-year-old Weekend Hussler in this Saturday's Group 1
Emirates Stakes at Flemington.
Centrebet's Neil Evans said Sonic Quest, who
has only missed a place once in 10 starts, has already been backed from
$7.00 into $6.50 in the mile classic, and loomed as the only rival to $2.10
favourite Weekend Hussler!
"Sonic Quest has won six from 10, and his
last-start victory at Moonee Valley proves he's at his best over 1600m,"
Evans said. "And we believe that race will continue to prove a very strong
formline."
Evans said the moment we opened the Emirates
book, the money came for Sonic Quest. "Weekend Hussler is a star well and
truly on the rise. He smashed them in the Caulfield Guineas over 1600m and
then came back on Derby Day to win the Coolmore Classic (1200m) down the
straight. But now he goes to open class against some seasoned
sprinter-milers, and while on quality alone he looks to have nearly all
their measure, Sonic Quest is a genuine threat," Evans added.
"Weekend Hussler is drawn wide and could be
under the odds, while Sonic Quest is certainly better value than Bart
Cummings' Cox Plate runner-up Wonderful World."
Evans said the Paul Dawson-trained Roman
Squire had been specked early by punters firming from $19.00 into $15.00!
* Meanwhile, Centrebet is not prepared to
concede Lee Freedman's world champion mare Miss Andretti automatically has
the better of Toowoomba rival Gold Edition in their sprinting re-match in
the Group 1 Age Classic (1200m) down the Flemington straight.
"We opened Miss Andretti up at $1.50 which
is about as good as you can get and Gold Edition at $3.00," Evans said.
"Miss Andretti came back to the track brilliantly at Moonee Valley, but Gold
Edition will be much better this time back at Flemington where she can
dictate more over the straight six furlongs. She will bowl along more
freely, and is certainly capable of turning the tables on Miss Andretti."
Evans said last-start Flemington winner
Swick had been specked early by punters at $12.00!
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WEDNESDAY 7 NOVEMBER |
FROM |
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CENTREBET ANNOUNCES RECORD CUP-DAY TURNOVER!
* Centrebet has announced a record turnover
day for the Melbourne Cup, hailing its new 'Race That Stops the Nation'
on-line promotion as a raging success!
Centrebet's
Neil Evans said clients big and small from around the corner and around the
world had enjoyed the Centrebet service right up until the Flemington
starter let them go at 3pm (AEDT).
Evans said Melbourne Cup turnover had
increased this year by a staggering 83 per cent, while turnover for the full
10-race card at Flemington was up by 60 per cent, Australian racing on the
day rose 53 per cent, and the percentage of all racing, including UK
clients, had increased by a very healthy 60 per cent! Actual bet numbers
were up by more than 100 per cent as well which is great proof of the
overall popularity!"
"We had a terrific day, with turnover up
incredibly on the previous year, even allowing for all the uncertainty
equine influenza cast over the early part of the Spring," Evans said. "We
did a lot of Cup promotion and public commentary and set up a special "24
Reasons To Have a Melbourne Cup Bet with Us" on-line site. We held nearly
$1.5 million on the Cup alone and nearly $2.5 million for the day."
"We kept the domestic and international
public informed about price fluctuations, and even enjoyed a significant
increase in international turnover, with many Centrebet punters from across
the UK and Ireland wagering hard on what were very competitive prices for
Purple Moon and Mahler."
Evans said it was all about quick access,
good pricing and keeping customers informed right up to the minute! "You
always get a bit nervous on the big day, but our on-line Cup promotion and
PR vehicle worked a treat, even under heavy betting pressure. We can now
look forward to another busy betting day tomorrow on Oaks Day and then again
on Saturday when Stakes Day wraps up a successful and fascinating week-long
Melbourne Cup carnival."
"Of course this is all part of our
unrivalled commitment to the world's biggest sporting and entertainment
events right throughout the calendar year!" Evans added.
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MONDAY 5 NOVEMBER |
FROM |
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MELBOURNE CUP
MOVERS
Firmers
Master
O’Reilly - $5.50 into $4.60
Zipping - $9 into $8
Purple Moon - $9 into $8.50
Efficient - $21 into $17
Gallic - $21 into $18
Tungsten Strike - $41 into $31
Blue Monday - $51 into $36
Black Tom - $251 to $201
Drifters
Mahler
- $8.50 to $10
Sirmione - $13 to $15
Princess Coup - $13 to $15
Maybe Better - $15 to $17
Blutigeroo - $36 to $41
Sculptor - $36 to $41
Douro Valley – $41 to $51
Tawqeet - $51 to $61
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MONDAY 5 NOVEMBER |
FROM |
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Master
O’Reilly & Purple Moon Top Melbourne Cup Betting
A 24 strong field will go to
post for the 2007 Emirates Melbourne Cup at Flemington Park on Tuesday. The
line-up is headed by the BMW Caulfield Cup winner Master O’Reilly, and the
British raider Purple Moon, who currently share 9-2 favouritism with William
Hill for the 2 mile contest.
Other notable entries
include the Aidan O’Brien trained Mahler, who has been backed down from 33-1
to 8-1 in recent weeks, and the Bart Cummings trained Sirmione, who could
provide his trainer with his twelfth
winner of the Melbourne Cup.
Tuesday 6th
November
Melbourne
Cup
(William Hill Bet):
9-2 Purple Moon, Master
O'Reilly, 7-1 Zipping, 8-1 Mahler, 11-1 Princess Coup,12-1 Sirmione, 14-1
Maybe Better, 16-1 Efficient,, 18-1 Gallic, 25-1 Eskimo Queen, 28-1 Douro
Valley, On A Jeune, Sculptor, Tungsten Strike, 33-1 Blutigeroo, Lazer Sharp,
The Fuzz, 40-1 Blue Monday, 50-1 Dolphin Jo, Tawqeet, 66-1 Scenic Shot,
80-1 Sarrera, 200-1 Black Tom, Railings, E/W 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4
Which
stall will the winner come from?
7-2 (Stalls 1-6), 11-4 (Stalls 7-12), 15-8 (Stalls 13-18), 11-4 (Stall
19-24)
A European
Trained Winner of the Melbourne Cup:
5-2
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SUNDAY 4 NOVEMBER |
FROM |
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MELBOURNE CUP
MOVERS
Firmers
Master
O’Reilly - $5.50 into $5
Mahler - $9 into $8.50
Purple Moon - $10 into $9
Princess Coup - $15 into $13
Blue Monday - $51 into $41
Sarrera - $101 into $81
Drifters
Zipping - $8 to $8.50
Sirmione - $11 to $13
Efficient - $15 to $17
Blutigeroo - $31 to $36
Sculptor - $31 to $36
Douro Valley - $36 to $41
The Fuzz - $36 to $41
Dolphin Jo - $41 to $51
Scenic Shot - $81 to $101
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SUNDAY 4 NOVEMBER |
FROM |
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Melbourne Cup favourite Master O'Reilly and the
imported galloper Mahler have both been sensationally backed on Centrebet
today.Thousands of dollars have
poured on to both horses from around the country, especially the Aidan
O'Brien-trained invader Mahler who has firmed from $10.00 to $8.50.
Centrebet's
Neil Evans said several four-figure bets have come for Mahler, with a
growing thought among smart punters the horse will race forward and be hard
to run down on what could well turn out to be a soft and leader-biased
track!
Money is also starting to come in for Luca
Cumani's Irish stayer Purple Moon who has firmed half a point today from
$9.50 to $9.00!
"Punters have also specked a few out in the
market, including Caulfield Cup runner-up Douro Valley and 2005 Melbourne
Cup place-getter On A Jeune who's firmed from $31.00 to $21.00," Evans said.
"We've kept Master o'Reilly at $5.50 so he's
still very backable. He has undoubted class, but I think he's still a risk
over the two miles, and Purple Moon is one horse that will be stronger over
the final furlong."
"Zipping is a solid $8.00 chance on
Centrebet, while last year's Derby winner Efficient is unwanted by punters
at $17.00
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SUNDAY 4 NOVEMBER |
FROM |
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ZIPPING ON IN CUP!
* The Graeme Rogerson-trained Lloyd
Williams-owned stayer Zipping is continuing to be well backed on Centrebet -
and is now an $8.00 chance to win next Tuesday's Group 1 Melbourne Cup at
Flemington!
After the barrier draw tonight - and final
withdrawals including Miss Finland - Caulfield Cup winner Master O'Reilly
remains the $5.50 favourite on Centrebet, but Zipping, who stormed home to
run third in the MacKinnon Stakes, has displaced the Luca Cumani-trained
Purple Moon on the second line of betting. The Irish galloper is now quoted
at $9.00!
UK galloper Mahler is next at $10, while New
Zealand's MacKinnon Stakes runner-up Princess Coup has been well backed on
both sides of the Tasman and has shortened to $11.00, and Bart Cummings'
shock MacKinnon winner Sirmione has been priced at $13.00 after being more
than 100/1 as little as a week ago!
Last year's VRC Derby winner Efficient, once
touted as Cup favourite, has now eased out to $17.00, alongside last year's
third place-getter in the Cup Maybe Better. Struggling 2005 Caulfield Cup
winner Railings is Centrebet's rank outsider in the race at $301.00!
The surprise SAAB Quality winner Sculptor
has come up at $41.00!
Centrebet's
Neil Evans said Zipping was backed before the MacKinnon and there was more
money for it after the race. "He's on track to go better than his fourth
last year in what is clearly a weaker Cup field this time around," Evans
said.
"The great value in the race must now be
Purple Moon. The two miles of Flemington is ideal, and his lead-up form has
been outstanding. As well, Purple Moon meets Master O'Reilly 3 kilo's better
for the mile-and-a-half at Caulfield.
"There's still plenty of money coming in for
Master O'Reilly and UK invader Mahler, but at this stage Maybe Better is
unwanted."
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FRIDAY 2 NOVEMBER |
FROM |
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SPORTS ACUMEN MELBOURNE CUP PREVIEW
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Next Tuesday, Australia’s favourite race will be run and won at
Flemington. As we have now become used to, punters have to line up the
form of the locals against a few highly credentialed raiders from north
of the equator.
Despite the impact of the Equine Flu and injury to some big name horses,
the field is as open as ever for the running of the 2007 Melbourne Cup.
While the team at Flemington are preparing for another monster carnival,
Sports Acumen is ready for a similar week in the betting stakes. Cox
Plate day and Caulfield Cup day have seen record betting figures and we
expect the same for the Melbourne Cup Carnival as punters take advantage
of some great value with our Super Club and great range of Pre Post
markets.
Before we look at Tuesday’s big race, we must make mention of the
fantastic day of racing at Flemington this Saturday for AAMI Derby Day.
Sports Acumen has a suite of Pre Post markets on offer and will also be
doing the popular match races again on selected races.
Make sure you top up your account before the weekend to have a crack on
Derby Day and make sure you are cashed up for Melbourne Cup Day.
Note - If you are looking to BPAY funds or send money via Bank Transfer
to bet on Cup Day, Sports Acumen recommends sending it through by close
of business Friday. This will ensure the money is processed by the bank
in plenty of time for a tilt at the 2007 Melbourne Cup.
Now, back to the important information – the horses! Here is a rundown
of the likely contenders and where they sit in Sports Acumen’s market
right at this minute.
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Master O’Reilly ($4.50)
Attempting to join Let’s Elope, Doriemus, Might And Power and Ethereal
as Caulfield-Melbourne Cup winners since 1991.
His Caulfield Cup winning margin was the biggest since Might And Power
10 years ago and his time ranks in the top 3 fastest ever Caulfield
Cups. Expected to be even better suited at Flemington, he will be asked
to carry an extra 3kg next Tuesday, owing to two separate penalties (1
each for the Winning Edge and Caulfield Cup).
Never tried at the Cup distance and sire O’Reilly was strictly a
sprinter-miler (being a son of the 1989 Golden Slipper winner Courtza),
but stoutly bred on his dam’s side and expected to relish the trip.
Been heavily supported in the Melbourne Cup/Caulfield Cup double and
also coupled with Villain in the AAMI Victoria Derby.
Purple Moon ($7)
Created a good impression with his closing effort at Caulfield after
being badly held up rounding the turn. All of his form suggests he will
be far better suited over 3200m on the bigger track at Flemington.
His trainer Luca Cumani has prepared Group 1 winners all over the world
(he prepared World Champion Falbrav and in more recent times, Starcraft
for his European campaign) and feels he has learnt much since first
coming to Australia last year with Glistening.
On the down side, the past 18 Cup winners have all finished within
2.5lengths of the winner in their final lead-up race – Purple Moon was
6.7L adrift of Master O’Reilly at Caulfield. Punters haven’t tempted
fate (nor history) by latching onto the Irish stayer who has been steady
in the market at around $7.
Mahler ($8.50)
Last year Coolmore brought out the highly credentialed Yeats, but the
dual Ascot Gold Cup winner wilted in the straight to finish 7th. Their
campaign got off to a rocky start this year with Scorpion ruled out
earlier this week.
That leaves the son of Galileo, Mahler, to compete for the World’s
leading stud. His last start second in the English St Leger rates highly
for this race and his form ties in strongly with Purple Moon.
Only a 3yo by Northern Hemisphere time, some say he is too inexperienced
for the Melbourne Cup. But don’t be too perturbed by those comments –
the European stayers are more lightly raced than ours and it’s not
uncommon to see winners of the English Derby and Arc de Triomphe having
only had a handful of prior starts.
A punters fancy well supported from $12 to $8.50 over the past two
weeks.
Zipping ($11)
Attempting to improve on his brave 4th in last year’s Cup. The last
horses to improve on an unplaced effort the year before to win the Cup
the following year are Brew (10th in 1999) and Tawrrific (12th in 1988).
Was unsuited in the Cox Plate, but his late finishing burst was
eye-catching. Scheduled to back up in the Mackinnon and another solid
effort there will justify his high ranking.
Efficient ($13)
Attempting to become the first Victoria Derby winner since Phar Lap to
win the Cup as a four-year-old.
Was on target to give it a shake, but past two runs have been way below
par. His work has reportedly been amped up since the Cox Plate, but will
need a real form reversal for this.
Maybe Better ($13)
Ran a cracker to be the first of the locals home in last year’s Cup and
had been heavily backed to win this prior to the Caulfield Cup.
Went poorly there, but reported to have pulled up with some injury
concerns. Trainer Brian Mayfield-Smith is confident he has now recovered
and is back on track.
Maybe he is better ... but he will need to be.
Gallic ($14)
An old marvel. Won the Adelaide and Sydney Cups this year and showed he
was back on track with a ripper win in the Moonee Valley Cup, which was
run in fast time.
Proven at the trip, by a proven Cup sire (Zabeel) and always reliable.
On the downside? Well, the last 8yo to win the Cup was Catalogue way
back in 1938. And the Sydney Cup has hardly been a great guide for this
through the ages ... Makybe Diva (2004) is the only horse since the
mighty Carbine (in 1890!) to complete the double in the same calendar
year!
Reckless is the last horse to win both the Adelaide and Sydney Cups in
the same season and the Tommy Woodcock trained galloper then ran a brave
second to Gold And Black in the 1977 Melbourne Cup.
Miss Finland ($15)
Harshly dubbed in some forums as ‘Myth Finland’ after costly defeats at
past three starts.
Her Cup chances hinge on a big run in Saturday’s Mackinnon. If she wins
or runs very well, expect her to firm up. If not, expect her not to
start at all.
Racing like she wants more ground, with her sprint seemingly gone. Would
be attempting to be the first Golden Slipper winner in the 50 year
history of the race to take this out.
Princess Coup ($19)
Ran on nicely for third in the Caulfield Cup. Engaged in Saturday’s
Mackinnon and will be one of the more fancied runners in that event.
Being by Encosta De Lago, the query is how much she will appreciate
getting out to the two miles at Flemington.
Eskimo Queen ($21)
Her Cup campaign was turned upside down (quite literally) with her
barrier incident before the Caulfield Cup. Showed she had recovered from
that with a handy Cox Plate effort, but now rises to 3200m without the
benefit of a 2400m run.
Tawqeet ($26)
The talk of the town as favourite for last year’s Melbourne Cup. The
will he or won’t he saga after a hoof mishap left punters in a quandary.
When he finished way down the track, those that backed him wished he
stayed at home in his stall.
Had been struggling until nice Caulfield Cup effort last start, but the
handicapper has made his task in 2007 a more formidable one to the job
he found insurmountable 12 months ago.
On A Jeune ($26)
His fans would remember him as the horse that was best of the rest when
second to Makybe Diva in the historic 2005 Cup. This writer remembers
him as the horse that cost him the trifecta when he surged past Xcellent
to claim second in the shadows of the post.
The fact he has run just 1 lone placing in 17 starts since that career
peak two years ago has done little to elevate him in these eyes either!
To be fair, he is going very well this preparation and he will relish
getting out to the 3200m on Tuesday – sure to run better than the 20th
place he recorded last year.
Tungsten Strike ($26)
The third of the Europeans and the least fancied – but don’t let that
put you off. Since the European Raiders first arrived, it has quite
often been the lesser fancied of the internationals that has run best.
Vintage Crop was underdog to Drum Taps in 1993, then you had the
Godolphin duo Central Park and Give The Slip run huge races at around
the 50/1 quote in 1999 and 2001.
This fellow’s form ties in okay and apparently he will go forward and
stick on. Perhaps a value hope.
Blue Monday ($31)
His followers have been blue since an eye-catching Australian debut in
the Liston.
He fared much better in the Caulfield Cup, hitting the line nicely late.
There is no better trainer to prepare former Europeans than David Hayes
(think Jeune) and his last run suggested he may well run a cheeky race
on Tuesday.
Douro Valley ($34)
Has been a revelation this spring, going to new peaks, culminating in
honest second to stablemate Master O’Reilly in the Caulfield Cup.
He is engaged to run in the Mackinnon on Saturday, but his profile says
3200m may prove too greater obstacle to overcome in the big one.
The Fuzz ($26)
Finally delivered when too strong for Zavite in the Geelong Cup. Engaged
in the SAAB this Saturday, but trainer David Hayes would prefer to go
straight into the Cup – only problem is, he’s not assured of a start.
That said, the Geelong Cup has been a revelation in recent years. Since
Media Puzzle did the double,we have seen both She’s Archie and On a
Jeune run second in the Cup after big runs at Geelong.
The Fuzz looks like he will stay and another one of many capable of
running a good race at odds.
Blutigeroo ($51)
Shock winner of the G1 BMW earlier this year, then couldn’t quite match
it with Gallic when out of a place in the Sydney Cup.
His run at Caulfield was good – after there were concerns over his
health leading up to the race.
Stablemate of El Segundo, but unlikely Colin Little and Luke Nolen will
be completing any big doubles with this fellow.
Dolphin Jo ($51)
No match for Gallic at the Valley and will find this harder. Might be a
good horse to draw in the sweeps, as he is a chance to run last.
Pacino ($101)
Rubs shoulders with Weekend Hussler at the McDonald camp at Caulfield (Pacino
is trained by Clint, while the Hussler is prepared by Clint’s Dad Ross)
and has his own share of ability.
But he needs to run 1-2 in the SAAB to even take his place in the Cup.
Sirmione ($101)
Trained by the Cups King, but he has lost a wheel in his past few
starts, after a promising 1st up effort. Not likely the horse to give
Bart his 12th.
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FRIDAY 2 NOVEMBER |
FROM |
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Latest Derby Day movers* The John
Hawkes-trained Marching has been heavily backed by punters on Centrebet and
is pressing Kibbutz for favouritism in tomorrow's Group 1 VRC derby for
three-year-olds at Flemington.
"We have taken some very big bets on
Marching today, and he's by far our worst way at the moment," Centrebet's
Neil Evans said. "Marching's carrying three times as much money as any other
runner - and has firmed from $4.50 into $4.30. But we'll hold his price out
there - he's far from over the line."
Centrebet still has Kibbutz a $4.00
favourite believing it can turn the tables on Marching! "The 2500m of
Flemington should be right up Kibbutz's alley, but I also believe Villain
and Stockade will be competitive over the longer trip."
* Meanwhile, SA mare Devil Moon is the best
backed runner in the Group 1 MacKinnons Stakes, firming today from $6.50
into $5.50.
"It's been a very big "go" on Devil Moon.
punters think she can sit up and dominate the race, like she did in the
Turnbull a couple of weeks back. Devil Moon has a liking for Flemington, but
there's some very fit and quality horses behind her who could carry off the
race at a big price. Zipping is one of those who's been backed from $21.00
into $17.00."
Evans said Haradasun is an easing $3.40
favourite, while Miss Finland is holding her quote at $4.50. The only other
well-backed runner is controversial three-year-old Pillar of Hercules who's
been backed from $15.00 to $13.00.
The best backed galloper across the Derby
program today is Ballerina Girl in the Plate for two-year-olds!
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THURSDAY 1 NOVEMBER |
FROM |
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Will Irish eyes be smiling again?
First there was Vintage Crop, then Media
Puzzle, now the Irish are eyeing off their third Melbourne Cup triumph in 14
years, with leading bookmaker Centrebet claiming Purple Moon is the
measuring stick in the race!
After Dermot Weld trained world class
Vintage Crop to glory in 1993 and repeated the dose with Media Puzzle in
2002, now Luca Cumani is desperate to take our greatest turf prize back to
the Emerald Isle. Centrebet’s Neil Evans said 12 months after Cumani tested
the Cup water with Glistening and Soulacroix, he’s arrived with a horse
that’s been perfectly tuned for the two miles next Tuesday.
“Ever since Purple Moon came from last in a
big field over 2800m to win at York a few months back, the stable has had
the Melbourne Cup in mind,” Evans said. “The Caulfield Cup run when he was
badly held up in the straight confirms his potential, and that still looms
as the best formline, especially considering Master O’Reilly’s jockey Vlad
Duric has written off many local rivals.
“You have to question whether the classier
locals are going well enough to beat Purple Moon over two miles. All this
horse needs is an even shot at them from the 600 – and the long straight
should do the rest, especially getting a three-kilo weight pull on the
Master.”
The form from Purple Moon’s feature win at
Goodwood also stacks up well, and Cumani showed his determination by
immediately sacking Caulfield Cup rider Kerrin McEvoy for Damien Oliver who
ironically saluted on Media Puzzle five years ago!
Purple Moon is a rock-solid $7.00 second
favourite on Centrebet behind the heavily-backed Master O’Reilly who has
firmed from $5.50 to $4.80 this week. “Apart from Master O’Reilly, last
year’s Derby winner Efficient, the consistent Zipping, 2005 place-getter On
A Jeune and even outsiders Eskimo Queen and Princess Coup all have cases,
but Purple Moon is the yardstick,” Evans added.
Meanwhile, rich-list galloper Haradasun has
been left the $3.30 favourite on Centrebet for Saturday’s Group 1 MacKinnon
Stakes after the scratching today of top fancy and Cox Plate winner El
Segundo! The best backing, though, has come for SA mare Devil Moon who’s
firmed into $6.00, while Miss Finland is rated $4.50! In Saturday’s VRC
Derby, Kibbutz remains the $4.00 fancy ahead of the heavily-backed Marching
($4.50), while boom three-year-old and Caulfield Guineas winner Weekend
Hussler is a $1.60 favourite to win the Ascot Vale Stakes ahead of Royal
Asscher ($4.40).
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WEDNESDAY 31 OCTOBER |
FROM |
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KIBBUTZ TO TURN TABLES IN DERBY!
* The quinella pairing from Saturday's AAMI
Vase are the big movers on Centrebet's VRC Derby (2500m) market after
drawing good barriers for the Group 1 three-year-old classic at Flemington
this Saturday!
The David Hayes-trained Kibbutz has firmed
up from $4.20 to $3.80 after drawing nicely in gate seven, while the
well-backed Marching, trained by John Hawkes, is into $4.50 after the draw,
but most of the good chances drew well in a modest field of 13, with Villain
(also $4.50) jumping from nine. Littorio will jump from the fence in gate
one and has shortened half a point to $5.50.
"Kibbutz should be able to position up one
off the fence for the trip from his middle gate, and then it's simply up to
Craig Williams to time his run from behind," Centrebet's Neil Evans said.
"There's little depth in this race, and I'm confident Kibbutz can beat
Marching home. He will run out a much stronger 2500m!"
* In the Group 1 weight-for-age Mackinnon
Stakes (2000m) Cox Plate hero El Segundo is Centrebet's $3.50 favourite
after drawing barrier six. "The horse doesn't like to be too cluttered up so
the draw suits. Danny Brereton hops on for the suspended Luke Nolen, but El
Segundo will virtually travel in the same spot as he did in the Cox Plate,
and be mighty hard to beat," Evans said.
The punters' achilles heel from the Plate -
Haradasun - has drawn nicely in two and is quoted around $4.20. "Haradasun
will get a cosy run, and although the spacious Flemington track will suit
the horse, I believe you still have to question his commitment if it becomes
a drive to the line! Miss Finland will open around $5.60 on Centrebet after
drawing poorly, while another Melbourne Cup hopeful Zipping has also drawn
wide. But last year's third placegetter in the Cup Maybe Better drew nicely
in gate two!
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TUESDAY 30 OCTOBER |
FROM |
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KIBBUTZ AND MASTER O’REILLY POPULAR WITH PUNTERS
Kibbutz has been backed into favouritism for
Saturday’s Group One Victoria Derby.
The David Hayes trained three-year-old, who
ran an eye catching second to Marching in Saturday’s AAMI Vase at Moonee
Valley, has been the subject of good support with punters.
One bet in particular ($80,000 at $5.25) was
responsible for his price being cut to $4.
“He is clearly the best backed runner in the
past couple of days for the Derby,” Betstar’s Michael Horne said today. “We
originally installed Marching the favourite after the AAMI Vase, but the
money suggests Kibbutz will be more suited by the Derby distance.”
Derby support has also been received for Lee
Freedman’s Husonic and Danny O’Brien’s Villain.
“We took $2,500 each way on Husonic at $26
and with some other smaller bets he’s into $17 now,” Horne added. “And
Villain continues to be popular - $4,000 at $5.50 and $2,000 at $5 in recent
times.”
Meanwhile, Master O’Reilly retains his place
as the Melbourne Cup favourite with punters as Australia’s most famous race
nears.
The Caulfield Cup winner is into $4.60 after
a punter plonked $10,000 on the kiwi bred at $4.80.
Purple Moon, Gallic and Sculptor have also
been popular at longer odds.
Overseas invader Purple Moon had $1,500
placed on him at $8 (he’s now $7), Moonee Valley Cup winner Gallic had a bet
of $1,000 at $15 (remains $15), while longshot Sculptor at $331 was the
subject of a $200 win bet.
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TUESDAY 30 OCTOBER |
FROM |
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Big money moves for Master & Kibbutz!
Caulfield Cup winner Master O’Reilly has
been heavily backed on Centrebet to win next Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup,
firming into a $4.80 favourite! And the David Hayes-trained former Kiwi
Kibbutz is the bookmaking giant’s new favourite to win the Group 1 VRC Derby
for three-year-olds!
Centrebet’s Neil Evans said a flood of money
has arrived for the Danny O’Brien-trained stayer Master O’Reilly who’s
attempting to become the first horse since Kiwi mare Ethereal in 2001 to do
the famous Cups double.
“They’re really coming for him now. He’s got
in from $5.50 to $4.60 in the last 24 hours before settling at $4.80,” Evans
said. “There’s a number of large bets on the Master and right now he’s
carrying four times as much money as any other runner.”
“Purple Moon is rock solid at $7.00, while
embattled mare Miss Finland has firmed from $13.00 to $12.00. Maybe Better
and Moonee Valley Cup winner Gallic have both eased out!
Evans said Kibbutz was now the best backed
runner and has displaced Villain at the top of Derby betting! “They’ve
backed a few runners with us, but the money for Kibbutz is significant. He’s
$4.60 into $4.20, and punters were quietly impressed with his second placing
behind Marching in the AAMI Vase at Moonee Valley on Sunday.”
Evans described the quality of this year’s
Derby make-up as one of the worst in history, and said Villain was now
quoted at $4.60, while Marching had eased from $4.80 to $5.00. Stockade has
also been backed, firming from $19.00 to $14.00!
And the Graeme Rogerson-trained Extend is
Centrebet’s well-fancied $3.30 favourite for tomorrow’s Werribee Cup
(2000m).
“Extend has a bit of quality about him, but
Blue Collar Jack ($5.50) is rated a big danger. There’s also been a bit of
early backing for Ballack ($8.50), disappointing at its last start.
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SATURDAY 27 OCTOBER |
FROM |
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HARADASUN TO GO OFF COX PLATE FAVOURITE!
* Rich list galloper Haradasun is almost
certain to displace Miss Finland as Cox Plate favourite today on Centrebet
as more money pours in for the Tony Vasil-trained galloper.
"It came in droves last night and early this
morning," Centrebet's Neil Evans said. "We took a stack last night as it
shortened a full point from $5.50 to $4.50, and another $20,000.00 this
morning has seen Haradasun hold its quote at $4.50. It has eased off a bit
as money has come for Miss Finland ($4.30) and the Mark Cavanagh-trained
mare Devil Moon who's firmed from $7.00 to $6.50 before easing again."
Evans said well-fancied El Segundo is now on
the drift - $6.00 out to $6.50 on Centrebet - and will probably start even
longer! Kiwi rank outsider Magic Cape has been well specked and has
shortened from $81.00 to $61.00! WA star Marasco has eased to $19.00 and is
unwanted by punters.
"Haradasun is carrying by far the biggest
load, but Miss Finland at a somewhat luxury price, and good early backing
for Efficient ($9.00) are also bad results for us," Evans said.
* And some Centrebet punters don't believe
it's a two-horse star match race in the Schweppes Stakes (1200m) between
returning $1.70 favourite (in from $1.75) Miss Andretti and Gold Edition
($2.80). "We've had some very big and smart money on WA sprinter Let Go
Thommo who's firmed from $12.00 to $10.00. Of course, there's money for the
top two, they're all class, but if they go too hard they could set it up for
'Thommo'," Evans said.
* The best backed runner today has been Lee
Freedman's Royal Asscher to win race 3 - City Pacific Finance Stakes
((1200m)! "They've backed him to the exclusion of every other runner and
he's in to $2.30, but that will shorten up again by the time the starter
lets them go."
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FRIDAY 26 OCTOBER |
FROM |
 |
HARADASUN NOW COX PLATE FAVOURITE
Haradasun has been the subject of strong
support by punters with Eskander’s Betstar today and the expensive entire is
now the new favourite for the Cox Plate (2040m) at Moonee Valley tomorrow.
For the first time in about nine weeks
glamour mare Miss Finland has been replaced as top elect for Australia’s
weight for age championship.
“We’ve had good money late today for
Haradasun,” Betstar’s Michael Horne confirmed. “Earlier he was $4.40 – but
we had $25,000 on him and wound him into $4.20 – and again another punter
stepped in with another $25,000.”
“He’s now into $4 and Miss Finland has
drifted to $4.60,” Horne added. “Haradasun is usually popular with punters
on race days, so I’m thinking he could start favourite tomorrow.”
Betstar has also reported good interest
today at long odds in Eskimo Queen, the Michael Moroney trained mare who
slipped in the gates prior to the Caulfield Cup and become cast. She is $34
into $26 today.
“She’s been particularly coupled heavily in
doubles,” Horne said of Eskimo Queen.
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FRIDAY 26 OCTOBER |
FROM |
 |
Lad can deliver Cox Plate shock!
Miss Finland is an easing favourite,
Haradasun is the best backed, while El Segundo is well fancied, but leading
bookmaker Centrebet believes ageing wonder Lad of the Manor is about to pull
off one of the greatest Cox Plate upsets in history!
Centrebet currently has long-shot Lad of the
Manor a little “safe” at $26.00 well behind Miss Finland ($4.10) and the
heavily-backed Haradasun who’s firmed from $6.50 to $5.00. El Segundo is on
the third line of betting at $6.00.
“It’s incredible to think we’ve taken a
tonne of money on Miss Finland in all forms of betting, nearly $40,000.00 on
Haradasun, and plenty on both El Segundo and Efficient – and absolute
peanuts for Lad of the Manor, but we rate him a real chance in the race!”
Centrebet’s Neil Evans said.
“His run behind Divine Madonna in the Toorak
at Caulfield was a beauty. He reeled off the quickest closing sectional
after being left completely flat-footed at the top of the straight. This is
top shelf, but it will suit him. He loves Moonee Valley, and is really the
forgotten horse at weight-for-age. He’ll run an enormous race – and
represents the best value by a country mile.”
Evans said punters have climbed into
Haradasun today, with tens of thousands of dollars invested. Efficient has
also received a string of four-figure bets at good odds and remains one of
the bookmaker’s worst results!
Evans said El Segundo and Haradasun both
remained the true testing material in the race, with the latter likely to
displace Miss Finland as favourite by race start!
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THURSDAY 25 OCTOBER |
FROM |
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'FIN' CLINGS TO FAVOURITE AS MONEY COMES FOR HARADASUN & EFFICIENT!
* Centrebet punters nation-wide are rallying
for last year's VRC Derby winner Efficient and boom "rich list" galloper
Haradasun ahead of mighty mare and shaky favourite Miss Finland for
Saturday's WS Cox Plate (2040m) at Moonee Valley!
And last year's Cox Plate second
place-getter El Segundo has also attracted good support on Centrebet in what
is looming as a weight-for-age betting war between those four horses!
Centrebet's Neil Evans said although
$50,000,00 had been wagered on Miss Finland, most of that was in early
all-in betting. She has fluctuated anywhere between $3.80 and $4.00, but
punters are threatening to drop off her!
"The best early plonk though was for
Haradasun. He firmed from $6.50 into $5.40 in no time and could still start
Cox Plate favourite," Evans said. "We've taken over $40,000.00 on Haradasun,
but in the last 24 hours the money has been more towards Efficient,
including bets of $12,000.00 and $10,000.00 at $10.00."
Evans said the brave money - nearly
$50,000.00 in total - for Efficient has seen him firm from $10.00 to $8.50!
"We've taken a stack of smaller bets too. I say it's brave because I don't
give Efficient much of a chance in this field. He's still got a Melbourne
Cup preparation look about him, and he's too dour at the moment to win a
race like this. Yet, he will no doubt be one of our worst results!"
Evans said over $35,000.00 had been plunged
on Haradasun and less on El Segundo. "I would take note of that money
because my ratings suggest these two will fight the race out in a repeat
finish of the Dato Tam Nin Chan where El Segundo prevailed in a tight
finish. Haradasun's the fresher horse but I see El Segundo tracking him all
the way in a drive to the line - and winning! I think Miss Finland will have
to travel pretty forward, otherwise she might get lost from the one gate."
South Australian back-marker Divine Madonna
has firmed a point after good backing ($12,000.00 invested), while much-impoved
fellow SA mare Devil Moon, despite coming in with a string of impressive
wins, is virtually unwanted by punters, despite her lofty price in the
market.
Evans said ageing Moonee Valley specialist
Lad Of The Manor ($34.00) was the best long-shot in the race!
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SUNDAY 21 OCTOBER |
FROM |
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THE 'MASTER' $5.50 FAV TO WIN MELBOURNE CUP!
* Master O'Reilly has charged into $5.50
favourite with Centrebet to win this year's Melbourne Cup after its
barn-storming victory in yesterday's drama-charged Caulfield Cup.
The Danny O'Brien-trained galloper has been
well backed today and firmed dramatically in Melbourne Cup betting from
$9.00! He will try to become the first horse since mighty NZ mare Ethereal
in 2001 to do the famous Cups double!
"Master O'Reilly's preparation for a dual
Cups assault has been pretty close to spot-on, and even allowing for the
sudden and upsetting barrier scratching of heavily-backed Caulfield Cup
favourite Maldivian, we always believed the 'Master' would take a big hand
in both Cups this year," Centrebet's Neil Evans said.
The Luca Cumani-trained Irish stayer Purple
Moon has also firmed, now on the second line at $7.00, after his strong
closing sixth in yesterday's Caulfield Cup! "The depth might not quite be
there this year, so you have to draw a fairly strong form line under the
Caulfield Cup," Evans said. "Miss Finland has eased to $9.00, while Maybe
Better and Efficient share the next line on Centrebet at $10.00!
* And in Cox Plate betting with Centrebet,
Haradasun has been the best backed runner over the weekend, firming from
$6.50 into $5.50. "He's on track nicely Haradasun, particularly with a
question mark over $3.20 favourite Miss Finland around the Valley," Evans
said! Moonee Valley specialist El Segundo has also firmed from $8.00 into
$6.50!
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SATURDAY 20 OCTOBER |
FROM |
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"DOURO & THE MASTER BACKED TO WIN CUP"
* Douro Valley - the last stayer to beat
rampant Maldivian - and Master O'Reilly are the best-backed runners on
Centrebet outside the raging favourite for today's Group 1 Caulfield Cup
(2400m)!
Centrebet's Neil Evans said there had been
"smart" money overnight and today for both stayers, with Douro Valley and
Master O'Reilly firming in to $10.00.
"It still hasn't stopped punters lining up
for Maldivian at around 6/4, but we've taken a series of sizeable bets on
the other two, including one of $12,000.00 on Douro Valley at $11.00, and
$10,000.00 on Master O'Reilly at $11.00," Evans said. "We also took a
$15,000.00 bet yesterday from across the Tasman for Kelt Capital Stakes
winner and NZ Oaks champ Princess Coup. The one horse they don't seem to
want at the moment is Eskimo Queen - she's $8.50 out to $9.50.
"The money for Maldivian is now over
$150,000.00. At this stage we're still looking for something to beat him,
and I really believe Master O'Reilly can be that horse. Danny O'Brien's got
him on track beautifully for the Cups double!"
In the International Sprint (1100m) there
has been very big backing for WA gelding Let Go Thommo! "He's $9.00 into
$7.50, with tens of thousands invested," Evans said. "They've come for him
strong in what will be a top betting race. Undue has also firmed from $7.00
to $6.50 and last-start winner Stanzout ($6.00 into $5.00), while
highly-rated Tim Martin-trained sprinter Typhoon Zed and Shadoways have both
been a little easy."
But the best backed runner so far is in race
2 (Pure Blonde Plate - 1400m) the Darren Weir-trained filly Miss Tomma Hawk.
"She's been a sensational go this morning - $5.50 into $4.80 with more to
come," Evans said.
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FRIDAY 19 OCTOBER |
FROM |
 |
KIWI PUNTER BACKS HIS 'PRINCESS' TO WIN $210,000
* A Kiwi punter has placed $15,000.00 on
Kelt Capital Stakes winner Princess Coup at $15.00 with Centrebet to win
tomorrow's Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)!
Princess Coup firmed immediately into $14.00
after the NZ plunge, fuelling belief the Matamata back-marker can steal the
Cup from his Australian rivals.
"The horse had already been specked from
well out, but the 15k pounce today suggests the NZ Oaks champ is well in
this race," Centrebet's Neil Evans said. "Her win in the Kelt Capital was a
beauty and the form has stacked up okay, so if the pace is on, she should
get home well, particularly if Glen Boss can get her in somewhere from the
wide gate."
Evans said the Mark Cavangh-trained
Maldivian was still a raging $2.50 favourite with Centrebet, with over
$100,000.00 now invested on the runaway Yalumba Stakes winner.
"He's at a top stayer's price, and with Miss
Finland on his scalp belt, they'll all be looking for Maldivian. Personally,
I think he's very average value, and it's no suprise there's been good
backing for Master O'Reilly who's shortend from $12.00 to $10.00, and Douro
Valley, solid at $11.00," Evans said.
Master O'Reilly has attracted over
$10,000.00 today and could push Eskimo Queen ($8.00) for the second line of
betting by race start!
"I also think Mandela is the best roughie in
the race. He's $31.00, and the run behind Princess Coup at Hastings was very
good."
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THURSDAY 18 OCTOBER |
FROM |
 |
PUNTERS RALLY TO MALDIVIAN’S CUP RIVALS
Caulfield Cup favourite Maldivian has eased
this morning from $2.40 to $2.50 as some big bets flow in for his main
rivals in Saturday’s $2.5 million race.
Barn mates Douro Valley and Master Reilly
and fellow fancies Eskimo Queen and Maybe Better have all been the subject
today of strong interest.
Eskander’s Betstar took two big bets on the
Danny O’Brien prepared stablemates Douro Valley and Master O’Reilly – with
the former being well supported to take the big Cups double.
“This morning we’ve had a bet of $500,000 to
$40,000 at $13 for Douro Valley – he’s now into $11,” Betstar’s Michael
Horne said.
“We’ve also laid Douro Valley to win both
Cups in the double markets to lose $500,000.
“There was also a $500,000 to $50,000 bet at
$13 for his stablemate Master O’Reilly,” Horne added.
Other bets taken this morning include $4,500
on Eskimo Queen at $8.50 and $3,000 on Maybe Better at $11.
|
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TUESDAY 16 OCTOBER |
FROM |
 |
MALDIVIAN FIRM FAVOURITE FOR CAULFIELD CUP
Mark Kavanagh’s Zabeel gelding Maldivian
continues to shorten as Saturday’s $2.5 million Caulfield Cup (2400m)
approaches.
A winner of Saturday’s Yalumba Stakes over
Miss Finland, Maldivian is the current $2.60 favourite for the mile and a
half feature after the announcement of the final field this afternoon.
Eskimo Queen, the reigning Queensland Oaks
winner, is the only other runner currently under $10. The Michael Moroney
trained mare is at $8.
Betstar’s Michael Horne said Maldivian was
all the rage in betting.
“All of the tickets we’re writing at the
moment seem to be for Maldivian,” Horne said. “Punters seem only interested
in one horse.”
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TUESDAY 16 OCTOBER |
FROM |
 |
THOUSAND GUINEAS
* Arcadia and Absolut Glam have dominated
betting on Centrebet today for tomorrow's Group 1 Thousand Guineas (1600m)
at Caulfield!
"They are easily the best backed, more so
the Danny O"Brien-trained Absolut Glam who is rock-solid at $5.00 after
shortening quickly from $6.50," Centrebet's Neil Evans said. "Arcadia has
also shortened to $6.00 clear second-elect, and they should go to the post
clear top two in the market. Jestatune has also been nicely tried, and
there's been decent specking for a number of other runners which is not
unexpected given the lack of depth in three-year-old form, but punters have
really come for the first two."
So many of these runners come out of the
Edward Manifold form, and the luckless story of the race has to be Jestatune!
"She's $11.00 into $7.50 and in my opinion a massive chance in the race.
You'll blow me over with a straw if the betting doesn't hold up - the winner
should come from Absolut Glam, Arcadia or Jestatune."
* Centrebet reports huge backing for
Maldivian to win Saturday's time-honoured Caulfield Cup (2400m)!
"Punters have stacked up the form, and
listened to a number of big trainers who have declared Maldivian virtually
unbeatable. We've taken over $35,000 just today on this front-running
warrior and he's in to $2.90. His market dominance is so much, Eskimo Queen
is on the next line at $7.50, with four gallopers equally quoted at $11.00,"
Evans said.
Double-figure chances Anamato ($11.00),
Master O'Reilly ($11.00), Douro Valley ($11.00) and Kelt Capital Stakes
winner Princess Coup ($15.00) have also been backed!
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FRIDAY 12 OCTOBER |
FROM |
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Eskander’s Betstar Media Release
Confident the three hot favourites at
Caulfield tomorrow will win - or do you think at least one will be beaten?
Now you can put your money where your mouth is.
Eskander's Betstar has this afternoon
released a market called "Two Mares and a Baby."
If you think Gold Edition, Miss Finland and
Weekend Hussler will all win - take the $5.20 on offer. Or is there a
weakness among the trio - take the $1.15 for any of the three to be beaten.
Gold Edition is the current $1.70 favourite
for the Schillaci Stakes, Miss Finland the $1.75 elect for the Yalumba
Stakes and Weekend Hussler is all the rage at $1.75 for the Caulfield
Guineas.
The latest markets for tomorrow as well as
the remaining of the spring carnival follow:
TWO MARES AND A BABY
$1.15 - Any of Three Horses to Lose
$5.20 - Gold Edition/Miss Finland/Weekend Hussler to win
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THURSDAY 11 OCTOBER |
FROM |
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KAVANAGH CHARGE ON CENTREBET!
* Centrebet punters have climbed into both
star runners of Adelaide trainer Mark Kavanagh, declaring he can grab a
prized Group 1 double at Caulfield on Saturday!
Kavanagh's Caulfield Cup fancy Maldivian is
being tipped by Centrebet punters to cause the big upset in Saturday's group
1 Yalumba Stakes - and beat Miss Finland!
"We've taken nearly $18,000.00 on Maldivian,
including one bet of $5.000.00 at $4.50, and another of $4,000.00 at $4.30,"
Centrebet's Neil Evans said. "Plenty of others too, and he firmed from $4.75
into $4.00 in 24 hours. "The horse is going great guns for Kavanagh and does
seem Miss Finland's only realistic danger especially if he can control the
race, but maybe punters have been baulked by the mighty mare's price - she's
now out to $1.70 after opening $1.60." Evans said Maldividian had already
been well backed to win the Caulfield Cup in Futures betting!
And punters are determined to make
Kavanagh's Divine Madonna favourite for the Group 1 Toorak Handicap for
mares. "Of the first $6,000.00 through the gate, 90 per cent of it was for
his flying back-marker. She's $4.25 into $4.00, while early favourite Bon
Hoffa has drifted from $3.50 to $3.75," Evans said. "The two could be close
to equal favourites by race start, and if the racing pattern suits the
finishers, look out for Divine Madonna," Evans said.
And despite a steady sprinkling of money for
several runners, boom galloper Weekend Hussler is still a rock-solid $1.80
favourite to win Saturday's Group 1 Caulfield Guineas at just his fifth race
start!
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WEDNESDAY 10 OCTOBER |
FROM |
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Purple Moon 7-1 for the Caulfield Cup
Luca Cumani’s Puple Moon was
the only overseas acceptor at the third declaration stage for next
Saturday’s BMW Caulfield Cup in Melbourne. The runaway winner of the
totesport ebor is one of thirty six horses that have been declared for the
Aus$2.5 million contest.
The British raider is rated
a 7-1 shot by bookmakers William Hill for the race, and also rated the same
price to record a first ever British victory in the Melbourne Cup on the 6th
November.
The favourite for the race
is the Maldivian, who is rated a 7-2 chance by the bookmaking firm
Saturday 20th
October
BMW Caulfield Cup: (William
Hill Bet)
7-2 Maldivian, 7-1 Eskimo
Queen, Purple Moon, Scenic Shot, 9-1 Maybe Better, 10-1 Princess Coup, 12-1
Douro Valley, 14-1 Blutigeroo, Master O’Reilly, 16-1 Annenkov, Mandela, 20-1
Anamoto, Blue Monday, Cinque Cinto, 25-1 Dolphin Jo, Pacino, 33-1 Brom
Felinity, Molotov, Sirmione, Tawqeet, 50-1 Bar – E/W 1/5 1-2-3
Tuesday 6th November
Melbourne Cup: (William
Hill Bet)
5-1 Efficient, 7-1 Purple Moon, 8-1 Miss Finland, 9-1 Maybe Better, 10-1
Zipping, 12-1 Master O'Reilly, Scorpion, 14-1 Eskimo Queen, 16-1 Princess
Coup, Tungsten Strike, 20-1 Dolphin Joe, Mahler, Maldavian, 25-1 Blutigeroo,,
Douro Vally, 33-1 Anenkov, Gallic, Mandela, On A Jeune, Tacit Agreement,
Scenic Shot, 40-1 Black Tom, Blue Monday, 50-1 Dracs Back, Lazer Sharp, The
Fuzz, Viz Vitae, 66-1 BarE/W 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4
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TUESDAY 9 OCTOBER |
FROM |
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Eskander’s Betstar Media Release
Ross McDonald’s boom three-year-old Weekend
Hussler is set to jump one of the shortest priced favourites in Caulfield
Guineas history after drawing barrier two for the 2007 edition on Saturday.
The son of Hussonet has been marked at $1.80
by Eskander’s Betstar after this morning’s barrier draw.
And the money is still coming for the
favourite. Just after lunchtime one punter placed $100,000 on Weekend
Hussler with Betstar at $1.80.
Scenic Blast, at $13, is the equal second
favourite after drawing favourably in barrier four for the million dollar
feature.
With Scenic Blast on the second line is the
John Hawkes trained Marching.
Sharing the third line of betting at $16 are
Barbaricus and Shrewd Rhythm.
Husson Lightning and Pit Lane are next in
the market at $17.
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TUESDAY 9 OCTOBER |
FROM |
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BIGGEST FAVOURITE GAP IN 126-YEAR CAULFIELD GUINEAS HISTORY!
* The 2007 version of the Caulfield Guineas
this Saturday has created 126-year-old market history, with leading
bookmaker Centrebet fielding the biggest price gap between the race
favourite and the rest of the field!
Centrebet's Neil Evans said a favourable
barrier draw today for heavily-backed odds-on fancy Weekend Hussler has seen
no other horse priced under a whopping $15.00 to win the one-mile classic
for three-year-olds around Caulfield! Weekend Hussler, who has drawn the
prized barrier two, is Centrebet's $1.80 favourite, ahead of Shrewd Rhythm
and Barbaricus, both quoted at an outrageous $15.00!
"As far as I can see going back through the
record books, I haven't come across a Caulfield Guineas market in history
where the second line of betting is $15.00! Champions of the past like
Tulloch, Luskin Star and Manikato all started well into the red, but the gap
wasn't as big to the next horse. It says something about the 'blanket' and
suspect form of this season's early three-year-olds."
Evans said Weekend Hussler had been backed
to the exclusion of every other runner! "Put it this way, if you can find
something to beat the "Hussler," you'll get paid very very well. And Brad
Rawiller doesn't have to lead. From gate two, he can dominate from the top
or sit right behind the speed. Weekend Hussler shortened into the red
without even running on the weekend, now the barrier draw has sent every one
of his rivals in the other direction."
One-time Golden Slipper favourite Murtajill
($19.00) drew poorly in gate 15 as did WA hope On The Warpath ($21.00) who
drew the extreme outside gate!
Pit Lane, a $19.00 hope, has drawn the
fence, while Husson Lightning is in barrier six!
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MONDAY 8 OCTOBER |
FROM |
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MEDIA RELEASE
OCT 8, 2007
Hussler plunge to win the Guineas!
The super-smart Weekend Hussler is
threatening to strangle the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas market firming into
odds-on with Centrebet after more big backing in the last 48 hours!
“All the three-year-old form from the
weekend did was shorten up Weekend Hussler,” Centrebet’s media chief Neil
Evans said. “They plunged tens of thousands of dollars more on him after the
running of the Group 2 Manifold at Flemington – and he’s now into a
sensational $1.75 to win this Saturday’s three-year-old classic over a
mile.”
Not one other horse in Centrebet’s market is
in single figures, with Marching and Shrewd Rhythm both priced at $11.00 and
Barbaricus $13.00!
“The three-year-old depth isn’t strong, and
the gaps Weekend Hussler has been putting on his opposition has convinced
punters across the country to get on. At this rate he will start around
$1.50.”
Evans also reports strong backing for
last-start JRA Cup winner Maldivian to win the Group 1 Caulfield Cup
(2400m)! “He’s firmed from $7.00 to $4.40 over the past 48 hours with some
very sizeable bets,” Evans said. “Eskimo Queen has drifted from $5.50 to
$7.50 after an ordinary run in Saturday’s Turnbull Stakes, while shock
second place-getter Scenic Shot has firmed from $61.00 to $10.00.”
Turnbull Stakes winner and rising
four-year-old Devil Moon is now rated an $8.00 chance in Centrebet’s Cox
Plate market, but the biggest support has come for champion mare Miss
Finland. “We took more money on her yesterday and she’s right in from $2.80
to $2.30.”
Evans said punters haven’t lost faith with
highly-rated Haradasun. “He was heavily backed late to start $3.90 in the
Turnbull and ran a strong third. There’s been a couple of large bets on
Haradasun and he’s firmed to clear $5.50 second favourite to win the Cox
Plate.”
And Maybe Better ($10.00) and Zipping
($12.00) are the market movers in Melbourne Cup betting, with early
favourite Efficient drifting from $6.50 to $8.00 after finishing down the
track in the Turnbull! |
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MARKET WATCH |
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RUGBY LEAGUE
WORLD CUP |
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Australia |
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