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Sports Punters,
Another massive
weekend of sport and racing fare is about to get underway. May the
winners flow freely whichever way you side.
What global financial
crisis? That's what the bean counters at Tabcorp must be asking
themselves as sports betting turnover records continue to be
smashed. TAB Sportsbet report that overall turnover on Rugby
League is up by over 20% on 2008. Last Monday night's Bulldogs v
Souths match established a new record mark with over $1.5m bet
including a significant $150,000+ in-running during the match. We
can only imagine how much higher that figure would be if punters
were legally permitted to bet in the run online.
In Las Vegas
meanwhile, its a far different story. Revenues from the
world-famous Las Vegas strip for February were down a massive 23%
on last year to US$427m. Maybe it's a sign that Australia is so
far more removed from the GFC, but there is no doubt that sports
betting is booming down under.
Good luck for
your weekend punting. Why
pay for substandard tips at other websites when the best analysis is at OnThePunt,
and it's all FREE! - OTP Editor
TENNIS
Federer crashes out in Monte-Carlo; punters scream fix again
OnThePunt's
ATP tennis guru is having a blinder in Monte-Carlo, currently up a
staggering 17 units for the week at an ROI of 110%. Big-priced winners
have included Beck to beat Simon (6.55) and Ljubicic to beat Del Potro
(7.25). Today he has Nalbandian beating Davydenko in a match carrying over
from yesterday's rain drenched card. Clay king Rafael Nadal is as close to
unbackable as you can get to win a tennis tournament (trading 1.32/1.33 at
Betfair) while Federer continued his slide with a poor loss to countryman
Stanislas Wawrinka yesterday.
Meanwhile, various media outlets (The Age
and Crikey) are reporting of suspicious betting patterns in the Igor Andreev vs Martin Vassallo Arguello tennis match from earlier in the
week at Monte-Carlo. Having followed the scoreboard (it was a non-TV
match) and in-running market on Betfair, OnThePunt admits that the betting patterns were a
little unusual, but to us, it looks a little premature to allege a fix in this
one.
Given the limited in-running action (around AUD$2 million which is quite
typical of a Masters Series event) and no distinct pre-match movement, the patterns
most likely reflect an
injury concern more than anything. Those in the industry that we have
contacted agree. The punters doing most of the
complaining in this one appear to be those who had an interest on the short
favourite Andreev.
AUSSIE RULES Title faves Cats to
be tested in Adelaide
Many are expecting Premiership favourites
Geelong to be fully tested against a resurgent Adelaide this weekend. The
Crows have been handed a 22-point start at home. Meanwhile, Brisbane are
attracting support ahead of tonight's blockbuster against Collingwood. There
is still some -10.5 around, but we don't expect this to last by game time.
Our Guru has posted his
pick on the match with other matches to follow later in the day.
RUGBY LEAGUE Five home dogs in
Round Six
Bookies and punters just about had a split
result last week in league action. This week sees no less than five home
teams going around as underdogs. We tend to agree with the boys at SportsAlive - history shows that you could do far worse by
carefully supporting home
dogs. Our NRL guru has accumulated up a modest 5% ROI season to-date while his
best bet is running at a healthy 60%. He has taken a home favourite tonight
as this week's best bet - take a look
here.
HORSE RACING Group One feast at
Randwick
IASbet
bookmaker Mark Read believes that the outside chances pose little threat
to the favourites in the majors but he has gone for some value in the
Doncaster Mile. "Hot Danish (9.00) will look the winner in the run, but
her last furlong against the males will be suspect. I oppose punters
taking the 5.00 about All Silent, as he will be a long way back in the
run, instead I am very fond of the chances of Vision And Power (8.00).
Last start he proved he was back at his highest rating, and both his
jockey and trainer are in tremendous form." View his full report
here.
The boys at Champion Picks have passed on the
Group One action in Sydney and have instead posted
best bets for
Saturday from Eagle Farm and Morphettville. Meanwhile, David Duffield
discusses the world of sports arbitrage trading in
today's
article.
For
all the latest sports betting news, market comparisons and analysis, don't forget to
check out our website - www.onthepunt.com.
Please direct any questions or comments about OnThePunt to the Editor.
Good Luck Punting
Editor
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