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League averages for
comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 22.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.0
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.2
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise
noted.
New England
–12 NY Giants 54
Giants come in playing
their best ball of the season, winning three straight road games against
some very solid teams – Tampa Bay, Dallas and Green Bay. They won those
games scoring at least 21 points in each game and allowing just 14, 17
and 20. While they allowed GB to score 20 points, seven came on a broken
play 90 yard touchdown pass. Otherwise, they stuffed GB pretty good in
that game. The Patriots won but didn’t come close to covering and
struggled over their last five games, failing to cover any of them and
not covering seven of their last eight games. This means NE comes into
the SB having not covered their last three games. I would give you the
numbers on past teams that have done this but nobody has done this going
back to 1983. In fact no teams have entered the SB having not covered
their last two games. NE was asked to cover large lines, which didn’t
help them to cover those games but they are being asked to do the same
thing here.
The Patriots average
6.2yppl against 5.2yppl and allow 4.9yppl against 5.1yppl. The Giants
average 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl and allow 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. The
Giants defense is better than NE but, of course, their offense isn’t
close to what NE has. During the playoffs the Giants have averaged 23
points per game against teams allowing 19 points per game on the season
and they allowed 17 points per game against teams averaging 26 points
per game. NE averaged 26 points per game against teams allowing 18
points per game and allowed 16 points per game against teams averaging
26 points per game. That translates to a final score of about 21-16 in
favor of NE. If I use just the regular season numbers, they favor NE by
a score of 37-20. If I look at the games where each team played a better
than average team, which consists of San Diego, Indianapolis,
Jacksonville, NY Giants, New England, Dallas and Green Bay, I get a
final score of 32-23 in favor of New England. My power ratings favor NE
by just 6.5 points.
I don’t have any
situations favoring either team in this game. If the line were to drop
to –10 or better for NE, they would qualify in a solid situation. I am
going to lean to the Giants in this game based on the numbers, a solid
defense for the Giants, they are playing extremely well, NE isn’t
showing any ability to cover games right now and the Giants can keep
games close with their running game, assuming they don’t get blown out
of the game early on. I will also lean towards the under in the game. If
this were just another regular season game, I probably wouldn’t even
have a play on this game but it is the last game and I feel strong
enough about the Giants to play a little in this situation. NEW
ENGLAND 30 NY GIANTS 23
BEST BETS
YTD 47-36-5
+21.50%
Playoffs
YTD 6-5 +1.90%
2% NY GIANTS
+12
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