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REG YTD 53-36-3 +37.20% PLAY YTD 1-4
–11.20%
3% PITTSBURGH –6.5
This number is coming down.
3% PITTSBURGH/ARIZONA OVER 46.5 This number is coming down so you
might get better
League averages for comparison to the
stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 22.0 Yards Per Rush
(YPR) 4.2 Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.1 Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.3
Home team in caps. All records against
the spread unless otherwise noted.
PITTSBURGH –6.5 ARIZONA 46.5
The Steelers clearly come into this game
with a much better defense and Arizona comes into this game with a much
better offense. The question, of course, is what will win out on Super
Bowl Sunday. Pittsburgh averages just 4.9yppl against 5.1yppl but allows
just 3.9yppl against 5.1yppl. Arizona averages 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl but
allows 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. Those numbers indicate Pittsburgh is about
0.5yppl better than Arizona. My numbers on this game also favor Pittsburgh
by about five points although the predicted total is about 50 with a score
of 30-20 in favor of Pittsburgh. When I do a profile match up I get
Pittsburgh by 33-21. Pittsburgh qualifies in a few playoff systems, which
are 40-9-0, 42-14-0 and 49-20-3.
Arizona has played eight games against
teams I would consider in Pittsburgh’s class or at least solid playoff
teams. During those games, they were out scored 233-211, which means they
lost by an average of 29-26. Pittsburgh played two games against teams
somewhat similar to Arizona (good offense, average defense) and both those
games were against San Diego. They won those games 11-10 and 35-24 for an
average of 23-17. If you average those scores together, you would get
something around 26-22. That doesn’t support Pittsburgh but does slightly
support the over. The least amount of points scored in those eight Arizona
games was 46 points. Arizona is a team that if they get behind they are
good enough on offense that they will score some points. They could get
blown out and still score 20 points, which would put this game over the
total. Pittsburgh will score some points in this game. Arizona will not be
able to run the ball. That means they will throw the ball and that either
leads to scores, clock stoppage and/or turnovers. Pittsburgh will either
score because Arizona gives up points against quality teams or because
they are playing from behind, which will mean they get some meaningless
scores. One way or the other I see meaningless scores in this game.
It’s also important to note Pittsburgh
allows 3.9yppl against teams averaging 5.1yppl, meaning they are 1.2yppl
better than an average team on defense. Those numbers represent the
regular season numbers. I looked back over all the Super Bowl’s going back
to 1972. Since that time, only four teams have entered the SB with a
defense that is 0.7yppl or better. Those four teams won their games 24-7
(1973), 16-6 (1974), 31-19 (1979) and 48-21 (2002). Clearly these teams
perform very well in the SB.
The numbers suggest a final spread
between five and 12 points, depending on what I use. The totals suggest
something between 48-54 points. Back that up with some solid systems in
favor of Pittsburgh and I think the only way to lean in this game is
Pittsburgh and over a total that seems to be coming down.
PITTSBURGH 33 ARIZONA 23 |