SEASON 2008-9
Updated 4:18 PM AEST, Sunday 31 January

3% PITTSBURGH –6.5 This number is coming down.
3% PITTSBURGH/ARIZONA OVER 46.5 This number is coming down so you might get better

League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.

Average Points Scored 22.0 Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.2 Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.1 Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.3

Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.

PITTSBURGH –6.5 ARIZONA 46.5

The Steelers clearly come into this game with a much better defense and Arizona comes into this game with a much better offense. The question, of course, is what will win out on Super Bowl Sunday. Pittsburgh averages just 4.9yppl against 5.1yppl but allows just 3.9yppl against 5.1yppl. Arizona averages 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl but allows 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. Those numbers indicate Pittsburgh is about 0.5yppl better than Arizona. My numbers on this game also favor Pittsburgh by about five points although the predicted total is about 50 with a score of 30-20 in favor of Pittsburgh. When I do a profile match up I get Pittsburgh by 33-21. Pittsburgh qualifies in a few playoff systems, which are 40-9-0, 42-14-0 and 49-20-3.

Arizona has played eight games against teams I would consider in Pittsburgh’s class or at least solid playoff teams. During those games, they were out scored 233-211, which means they lost by an average of 29-26. Pittsburgh played two games against teams somewhat similar to Arizona (good offense, average defense) and both those games were against San Diego. They won those games 11-10 and 35-24 for an average of 23-17. If you average those scores together, you would get something around 26-22. That doesn’t support Pittsburgh but does slightly support the over. The least amount of points scored in those eight Arizona games was 46 points. Arizona is a team that if they get behind they are good enough on offense that they will score some points. They could get blown out and still score 20 points, which would put this game over the total. Pittsburgh will score some points in this game. Arizona will not be able to run the ball. That means they will throw the ball and that either leads to scores, clock stoppage and/or turnovers. Pittsburgh will either score because Arizona gives up points against quality teams or because they are playing from behind, which will mean they get some meaningless scores. One way or the other I see meaningless scores in this game.

It’s also important to note Pittsburgh allows 3.9yppl against teams averaging 5.1yppl, meaning they are 1.2yppl better than an average team on defense. Those numbers represent the regular season numbers. I looked back over all the Super Bowl’s going back to 1972. Since that time, only four teams have entered the SB with a defense that is 0.7yppl or better. Those four teams won their games 24-7 (1973), 16-6 (1974), 31-19 (1979) and 48-21 (2002). Clearly these teams perform very well in the SB.

The numbers suggest a final spread between five and 12 points, depending on what I use. The totals suggest something between 48-54 points. Back that up with some solid systems in favor of Pittsburgh and I think the only way to lean in this game is Pittsburgh and over a total that seems to be coming down. PITTSBURGH 33 ARIZONA 23

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