NFL PREVIEWS/PLAYS
...... with the 'Sixth Sense' from SixthSenseSports

SEASON 2011-12
Updated 10:00 PM AEDT, Sunday 22 January

NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

A couple of notes for the Conference Championship games. Since 1970, when laying less than 10 points the SU winner in these games is 68-1-2 ATS. The only loss was two years ago when NO failed to cover against the Vikings. Typically, however, the spread has not mattered.

Also, the team with the better defense in this game, defined by points allowed per game during the regular season is now 53-26-1 ATS. There was one year when both teams allowed the same amount of points on defense.

BEST BETS

YTD

Reg Season 58-43 +32.00% Playoffs 3-1 +5.70%

Total 61-44 +37.70%

3% BALTIMORE +7

NEW ENGLAND –7 Baltimore 50

Baltimore qualifies in the defensive situation listed above, which is 53-26-1. Numbers for year to date stats make NE a three point favorite and predict about 52 points. If I look at just home/away games for both teams I get NE 28-23. So the total appears to be about right but there is value along with the situation in Baltimore’s favor.

Baltimore struggled on offense last week but they faced a Houston defense that I rate for the complete season as the best defense in the league. They will not face that same defense this week in NE. Houston, on the year, allowed 4.7yppl against teams averaging 5.3yppl. They allowed 17 points against teams who averaged 21 points. NE, on the other hand, allows 6.0yppl against teams averaging 5.4yppl and 21 points per game against teams averaging 21 points per game. Baltimore’s offense should have some success against the Patriots. I realize the teams are different this year than in the past but in the last three meetings between these two teams, which were all in New England, Baltimore has scored 21, 33 and 20 points. They allowed 27, 14 and 23 to NE.

Forget about last week’s game for NE against a bad Denver team and Baltimore’s game against Houston, who plays a much better defense than NE plays. Yes, the win for NE could give them some confidence and possibly Baltimore will question how good they are on offense but this game will be completely different from last week’s games.

NE has not defeated a playoff team this year (no Denver does not count) as they are 0-2, losing at home to the Giants and on the road at Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, Baltimore is now 7-0 against playoff teams this year. Many people say NE is on a roll right now, but I don’t see it. They blew out a Denver team that isn’t that good and is defeated once they get behind. They struggled to defeat Miami, which is a team similar to Baltimore, but just not as good. They fell behind 21-0 against Buffalo in the last game of the season. This is simply too many points to be laying against a good defense, especially when they haven’t defeated a good team this year. That doesn’t mean they aren’t good enough to blow out a playoff team like Baltimore, but the value and situation are in Baltimore’s favor in this game. Although not official plays, if you are looking for extra plays in this game I would look at Baltimore over team total points (anything under 23), NE under team total points (anything over 28) and Baltimore on the money line. BALTIMORE 27 NEW ENGLAND 24

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