NRL PREVIEWS & PLAYS
...with OTP's National Rugby League expert
Updated 2:37 PM AEST, Thursday 2 October
NRL GRAND FINAL
Sea Eagles to bt Storm
4 at 1.91
+3.64
After all the blood, sweet and beards that
has been the 2008 NRL season it's finally come down to this, a re-match
of last years grand final, only this year I believe we're going to see a
different result. Manly have been waiting for this match ever since the
ref blew full time on last years grand final and it's not hard to see it
in their lead-up matches that they're a better side than the one that
took the field in that match, with an all round 10% improvement in
fitness, attitude and execution that will ultimately see Matt Orford
hoist the trophy triumphantly into the air come Sunday evening. Manly
didn't give the Warriors a chance to get on any sort of roll last
weekend through suffocating defence and an accuracy on attack that had
the Warriors back-pedalling all day; meanwhile the Storm also impressed
against what turned out to be an unimpressive Sharks side who didn't
turn up. The Storm have won the last three matches between these sides
but it would be short-sighted to pay too much attention to that record
given it's now the grand final and the Storm are without their captain
and workhorse Cameron Smith, who is the only notable omission for either
side in this match. Melbourne are going to be a very hard side to beat
and if they were playing any other team in the competition I would be
backing the Storm to make it back to back titles, but emotion is a huge
factor in grand final football and when you mix it with the talent and
form the Manly side have then you simply can't go past the Sea Eagles to
send Steve 'Beaver' Menzies out in the absolute style he deserves - with
a premiership win.
NRL FINALS WEEK THREE
Sharks vs Storm
NO PLAY
It's been a tumultuous past seven days for
both these sides with Melbourne's shock last minute win over Brisbane,
Cameron Smith's suspension and injuries to key players, and with the
dust now settled prior to kick-off these events have left Punters
scratching their heads over which side to back to make it to the Grand
Final. Melbourne have been hit the hardest with the loss of Cameron
Smith, Jeremy Smith and Ryan Hoffman for this match, three starters that
Craig Bellamy would pencil in early for every match, whilst Cronulla
suffered a major blow with the loss of the pivotal Brett Seymour, with
their captain Paul Gallan also in doubt with the calf strain. The fact
Melbourne have one more finals match under their belt is no major factor
for this match as their performance last week was not what we've come to
expect from them, with key players looking out of sorts and confidence
on attack seemingly at a season low, and with no Cameron Smith for this
clash it's hard to see any sudden return to the attacking juggernaut
that we expect from this quality side. The ledger is somewhat balanced
(in the very loose meaning of the word) with the loss of Seymour at
Five-Eighth for Cronulla, and the Storm will make sure his replacement,
the inexperienced Blake Green, will have a baptism of fire to finals
football, led by his opposite Greg Inglis. The match's venue holds no
real edge for either side as neither has a great record at the Sydney
Football Stadium. This is not a good match for Punters as it really
could go either way, one thing is for sure though it will be dominated
by defense with tries coming at a premium. If pushed I would say
Melbourne by a whisker, but this is not a forum where I recommend
throwing money to Bookies without having a comfortable degree of
confidence in the outcome.
Sea Eagles vs Warriors
NO PLAY
Amazingly, the Warriors are now just one
match away from the Grand Final and are riding on the crest of a wave of
self belief and confidence that will have to gain further momentum for
this match, or risk crashing to a side who are now the favourites to win
the Premiership. Neither side has any major omissions for this match,
but the Warriors do have the huge boost of welcoming back Wade McKinnon
at Fullback, whose ability to hit the gaps at pace, and general vision
on attack and defense, will add another string to their bow. Manly play
the game at a pace the Warriors have struggled with in the past (most
notably the 52-6 demolition in round 3) but the Warriors showed against
Melbourne and Sydney their ability to slow the play down, and back it up
with solid defense around the fringes, two facets that will be
absolutely crucial if they're a chance this week. With two legends of
the game in Menzies and Wiki on either side, the emotional card is
fairly even as both sides are bent on sending their departing stars out
in style by winning the Premiership. In terms of the venue, the Sydney
Football Stadium has been a happy place for the Warriors, winning 7 of
their last 8 games there, which is very significant for a side who
traditionally struggles away from home. Unfortunately, as with the
Cronulla/Melbourne match, there is no obvious value in the lines on
offer as who can predict whether the Warriors can continue to play at
the level they've been at for the past fortnight, if they do then I
believe they'll get the win, but if they don't then Manly will run away
with it.
NRL FINALS WEEK TWO
Warriors -3.5 vs Roosters
3 at 1.93
+2.79
The Warriors win last week was without
doubt the clubs most courageous since their entry into the NRL in 1995,
not only defying history to beat the 1st placed side under the finals
McIntyre System, but having to do so in Melbourne where the Storm had
only lost twice in three seasons. The Roosters came to Auckland in round
11 and hammered the Warriors 38-12, with Braith Anasta dominating
proceedings, and there is no doubt the Warriors will look to shut him
down on Friday night, ensuring he's kept busy on defense, while also
limiting his time with the ball on attack. I could go on about pros and
cons for backing both sides in this match but for mine the pros for the
Warriors out way those of the Roosters; the Warriors have won 9 of 12
home games in 2008 and the loss to the Roosters back in round 11 will
have them on their toes for this one, the match is a sell-out and (with
the exception of Melbourne) there is arguably no more difficult away
game in the NRL than playing in Auckland. The Warriors are the
favourites with the Bookies and as long as they can keep their heads,
and with the leadership and coaching staff they have on hand I believe
they will, should cover the small negative point start on offer and book
a date with Manly for the following week. Pick - 3 units on Warriors
-3.5 point start
Storm -4.5 vs Broncos
2 at 1.94
-2
The Broncos showed plenty of spine last
week in coming back against the Roosters after half-time, having been
dominated and brutalised in the first half; however, they are up against
a much more complete side this week who have a vast amount of finals
experience and are severely hurting after their shock loss to the
Warriors, a loss that captain Cameron Smith said was harder to stomach
than their defeat in the 2006 grand final. The Storm have a very good
record over the Broncos in Brisbane and even a sell-out home crowd will
hold no fear for them, such will be their resolve and focus. As
professional as the Broncos coaching staff are and as much as they'd
like to deny it there is no doubt that the scandal involving key Broncos
stars will have had a negative impact on the teams preparations for this
match, and is definitely not something a side lining up against the
quality of the Storm needs. I expect the Storm to play a very
clinical/up-tempo style, and for the Broncos to leave the field after 80
minutes dazed by the destruction left behind by a Storm side who I feel
are about to put on their best display of the season. Pick - 2 units on
Melbourne -4.5 point start
+3.64
-2
RECORD
