NRL PREVIEWS & PLAYS
...with OTP's National Rugby League expert
Updated 7:51 PM AEST, Thursday 1 October
WANT TO KNOW WHEN NEW
TIPS ARE POSTED? FOLLOW US @TWITTER
NRL GRAND FINAL
Melbourne -4.0 vs Parramatta
4 at 1.92
+3.68
This has all the makings of an
absolutely brilliant grand final with both sides peaking perfectly for
this match and both sides at full strength (Cayless was included in Eels
side at time of writing). The surge of the Eels has been simply
unstoppable, that is until now, as I feel the only side who've been
capable of halting their charge for the premiership is the Storm who are
as battle-hardened as they come and equipped both offensively and
defensively to handle what the Eels throw at them. Of these two sides
it's the Storm who are the more clinical in their play and slightly edge
the Eels in terms of flare and added to this the majority of the Strom
side can no doubt still taste the bitter disappointment that was last
years grand final, in which they were thrashed by Manly, and will be
quietly confident of putting that match to rest here. The Eels have the
Hayne factor but the Storm will be up for what he throws their way, the
Storm on the other hand have the weight of experience in the Halves with
Cronk and Finch in season best form and again we'll see some big metres
gained from the Storm around the ruck (particularly from Smith who will
relish this match after missing last years final) which will create the
attacking momentum and keep the Eels on their heels, whilst defensively
the Storm are the strongest unit the Eels will have played of late and
in this match they won't have the missed tackles and slower line speed
they've enjoyed from recent opposition. The Eels story to date has been
somewhat of a fairytale but there'll be no glass slipper for them here
as the Storm take out the grand final, covering the narrow margin in the
process. Pick – 4 units on Storm -4.0 point start
(BEST BET)
NRL FINALS WEEK THREE
Parramatta to bt Bulldogs
2 at 1.92
+1.84
The Eels look simply unstoppable and the only team who does have a
chance to halt their surge for the title is Melbourne, who I expect them
to play in the Grand Final next week. The Dogs have had a great season
but their lead up to this very important match has been soft, with a
week off last week and a win over the Knights the week before, whereas
the Eels have hammered both the Titans and the minor premier Dragons in
the last two weeks, they've also got a fully fit squad and players that
have peaked at the perfect time in the season. The Dogs will be solid
here and, as they have all year, do the basics very well, unfortunately
for them though it'll take more than this to beat the Eels, who
themselves are doing the basics extremely well but are also adding the
x-factor to each display, with a forward pack whose work rate is second
to none and a backline choc-full of attacking options. I'm not convinced
Kimmorley will be anywhere near his best after a few weeks off and even
though Roberts has come on strong in 2009 this is a different stage and
will require another step up in play, and I'm not sure he's got that in
him just yet in his career, whereas the Eels have so many options
there's not one player that has such an attacking burden resting on
them. The Eels have won 5 of their last 6 against the Dogs and will
share equal support amongst the near capacity crowd at ANZ Stadium,
it'll be the blue and golds who are cheering loudest come the final
whistle though. Pick – 2 units on Eels to win
Melbourne -8.5 vs Brisbane
3 at 1.94
+2.82
As I've said above the only team capable of stopping the Storm are the
Eels, which obviously means I'm siding heavily on the Storm to take this
match out comfortably. Credit to the Broncos for their last couple of
wins over the Titans and Dragons where they, particularly last week over
the Dragons, essentially out-muscled and beat the opposition forward
pack into submission, which spearheaded the rest of the side into almost
complete dominance, they will certainly not have that same dominance
this week though as the Storm will, I expect, reverse the tables on them
and it will be the Broncos who struggle to cope with the intensity and
physicality of the match. The Broncos are going to struggle without
Wallace's kicking game and his absence will just add to the pressure on
Lockyer, who the Storm will be targeting all match. Short and sweet
here, the Storm own the Broncos, particularly in Melbourne, and have too
many big game players brimming with experience in the heat of finals
footy. This is going to be a very comfortable win to the home side who
have the premiership within their grasp yet again. Pick – 3 units on
Storm -8.5 point start (BEST BET)
NRL FINALS WEEK TWO
Dragons to beat Brisbane
3 at 1.88
-3
What a contrasting fortnight it's
been for the Minor Premiers the Dragons having thumped the Eels 37-0
then losing to them by 13 points the following week in a complete
turnaround which leads them this week to Brisbane in a sudden death
match….and the script could not have been written any better really with
coaches Bennett facing off against the Henjak. The Dragons were well
short of their best last week against the Eels and will turn things
around here in style, their forwards were far from the dominant force
they've been all year; what will worry the Broncos is the fact that last
time the Dragons suffered a shock defeat was against Souths a month ago
and they bounced back hard the following week to hammer the Eels in that
37-0 rout, they'll be buoyed by the impressive record they have in
Brisbane also having won their last 5 matches played at Suncorp Stadium
and 8 of their last 9 overall against the Broncos. The Broncos come into
this following their 40-32 victory over Gold Coast, the fact they
conceded 32 points is a worry as is the fact that the Titans played
below their best so any confidence they get out of that match is
somewhat false. The Broncos have some real stars within their side but
the Dragons are simply unstoppable as a combined unit and when the
juggernaut starts to roll, as I have no doubt it will here, they operate
with a near impenetrable defence and a clinical attack that this Broncos
side won't be able to withhold. Even though they've been winning I'm not
getting carried away with this Broncos side and I expect the Dragons
master coach Wayne Bennett to add another chapter to his triumphs at
this ground, he lead the visiting Kiwis over the Kangaroos last year and
he'll be relishing this match-up. Quite simply the Dragons are a better
side and won’t give the Broncos any of the offensive freedom they
enjoyed against the Raiders and Titans over the last fortnight, whilst
the pace of the match from the Dragons will have the home side
back-pedalling all day. Pick – 3 units on Dragons to win (BEST BET)
Gold Coast +8.0 vs Parramatta
2 at 1.96
-2
I've not liked the direction the Titans
have headed in over the last fortnight, having put in two sub-par
performances in losing to both Manly and Brisbane, conceding a combined
78 points in the process, the realities of what they now face is in
flashing neon lights though and I believe we'll see a return to the
attitude and intensity here that saw them finish the season third on the
table. The Eels have showed us both sides of their personality in the
last fortnight and I've seen it time and again in league after teams
have scaled their Everest one week they struggle to reach the same
heights the next week so the issue facing Daniel Anderson is one of
motivating his side to the same intensity they showed in downing the
Dragons last week, whilst the motivation for the Titans has never been
stronger and their intensity should reflect the fact they now face their
own Everest here. I've sounded a little like a broken record the last
few weeks in describing the numerous strengths this Titans side have –
they’re brimming with experience and have a forward pack that is as
strong, if not stronger, than any in the competition, yet have not risen
to the heights recently that I have expected from them - this week again
though that broken record is still playing and I'm backing them to throw
everything into the ring here, look for the older masters of Prince,
Bailey, Rogers, Campbell, and co to really step up and lead this side in
a very competitive performance. The result here is really in the balance
and the Bookmakers have jumped on the Eels ship, which is good for us as
I recommend getting on the generous point start on offer to the
visitors. Pick – 2 units on Gold Coast +10.5 point start.
NRL FINALS WEEK ONE
Melbourne to bt Manly
3 at 1.95
+2.85
I'm very pleased to see the Bookies be sucked in by Manly's win last
week over a Titans side that played their worst match of the season and
made Manly look back to their premiership winning best and whilst their
defence may be close to that level their attack is not, with or without
Lyon. The Storm know what to expect here and have had a year to reflect
on the grand final humiliation they suffered in 2008 and this match,
more so than any other they've played in 2009, they will show all their
cards and I expect them to come up with a Royal Flush - they have more
class on attack in key positions than the Sea Eagles and I expect
Bellamy to have worked on a game plan to counter the rush defence of the
visitors. The Bookies have predictably gone for a fairly even market
here….I strongly recommend making them pay - get on the Storm to win!!
Pick – 3 units on Storm to win (BEST BET)
Gold Coast to bt Brisbane
2 at 2.65
-2
The Titans were terrible last week in
losing heavily to the Sea Eagles, it was a very timely wake-up call that
this side is definitely good enough to respond to especially given
they're back on home turf and with a couple of regulars returning in
Meyers and Delaney. Whilst you can't argue with the Broncos excellent
record in making the play-offs over the years their actual record once
they're there is not flash at all and I'm afraid it's about to get even
worse. The Titans have playmakers all across the field and whilst they
were disappointing against Manly they have the depth of experience and
talent to turn things around here in front of their home fans that have
become accustomed to watching the Titans win at Skilled Park. The
Broncos have shown a real lack of consistency in 2009 and looked odds on
to miss the play-offs at one stage whilst the Titans have been a more
dominant force and have made this trip to Skilled Park one of the
toughest away journeys for visiting sides in the competition. Prince
will turn things around this week for the Titans whose mobile pack will
run the Broncos ragged with Friend, Campbell and co eating up some big
yardage around the fringes. The Bookies have the Broncos as favourites
here which means good value in backing the Titans. Pick – 2 units on
Titans to win
Bulldogs -5.5 vs Newcastle
3 at 1.92
+2.76
The Tigers did not do the Knights any
favours last week in thrashing the Bulldogs as I've no doubt it was the
slap in the face the Dogs needed going into this clash as each and every
player (especially Ennis and Roberts) lifts their accountability and
performance to accommodate the absence of Kimmorley and we'll see a very
different Dogs side take the field this week. The Dogs will return to
the basics of punishing defence that we've seen from them for most of
the season and a fast paced offence that will win the field position
stakes. Short and sweet here, just like the Dragons last week I expect
the Dogs to remind us all just how good they are with a bruising and
clinical win here, covering the point start. Pick – 3 units on Bulldogs
-5.5 point start
St George-Illa. vs Parramatta
NO PLAY
The momentum the Eels had built up in the
weeks preceding last weeks match against the Dragons was all but
forgotten following their 37-0 demolition and with just one week to dust
themselves off before this replay I just can't see a change in the
result, although expect a closer match. The Dragons were just too
clinical in everything they did last week with a return to the game plan
and the form they've shown for most of the season that had many
believing they couldn't be beaten. In front of another sell-out crowd
the Dragons will again lift to the same intensity they showed on Friday
night; the Eels will be lifted by the return of Hindmarsh to the side
but the freight train that was their rush to the play-offs has come to a
sudden halt and it’s hard to know if they can turn things around. The
line is about right here and there’s better value elsewhere. Pick – no
play
NRL ROUND TWENTY-SIX
Wests Tigers +6.5 v Bulldogs
2 at 1.90
+1.8
This match kicks off one of the more difficult rounds for punters in the
NRL season where the finals spots are all but decided (with the
exception of the Knights/Panthers match) the temperament and attitude of
each side can be hard to judge, with players minds either on next weeks
finals or on Mad Monday. The Tigers are one side I'm confident will
approach this week with the same attitude and intensity as if they were
still alive in season 2009, their injury hit line-up were run down last
week by the Titans but put in a gallant effort and they'll be even
stronger here back home and with a more healthy line-up. The Dogs are
going to really miss the injured Kimmorley as he is the heart and soul
of this side, not only in the way he guides the offence but with the
leadership and overall tenacity he brings to the side, constantly
lifting and challenging them to greater heights. The Bookies have given
the Tigers a generous point start here and I'm happy to recommend
getting on it as the Dogs won't have the same cohesion on attack without
their inspirational Halfback whilst the Tigers have plenty of dangerous
options on attack. Pick – 2 units on Tigers +6.5 point start
Dragons v Eels
NO PLAY
What a great match this promises to be as the Dragons search for answers
before the finals to their rapid decline and the Eels look to continue
their seemingly unstoppable surge. It is very tempting here to recommend
backing the Eels for yet another win here given how well they're playing
but something tells me the Dragons will be back to their best here,
anything short of which will see them going into the finals with four
straight losses to their name and you'd be a very brave punter to back
them to win the Premiership from there. We know just how good this
Dragons side is and their problem at the moment is mental, they've no
better person to turn them around though than Wayne Bennett who will
have used his years and years of experience this week and as a result I
expect every Dragons player will lift their game from last weeks
embarrassing loss to Souths. Not a good match for punters, expect to see
a rejuvenated Dragons side but it's questionable whether the Eels can be
stopped by anyone at the moment, we'll see. Pick – no play
Storm -8.0 v Warriors
3 at 1.90
+2.7
The last two matches between these sides in Auckland have been shared
one win a piece and have yielded a combined points total of 20 - which
is absolutely staggering! There will be a large home crowd here to
farewell the Little General, unfortunately for the Warriors though
there's a gulf of talent between them and this Storm side who go into
this fresh off a very big win over the Roosters and with their offence
looking back to its devastating best following the return of Inglis to
the side. The Warriors are still without Steve Price for this match,
with Ropati and their main attacking weapon - Manu Vatuvai also added to
the injury list here. Short and sweet, the Warriors will struggle to
break through the Storm defence as the visitors approach this match like
it's the finals and as the home side become more and more frustrated
there’ll be plenty of turnover ball which the Storm will take full
advantage of and will easily cover the line on offer from the Bookies.
Pick – 3 units on Storm -8.0 point start
Titans to bt Sea Eagles
1 at 3.75
-1
Titans +10.5 v Sea Eagles
3 at 1.91
-3
The Titans will rate themselves a very good chance of beating Manly
here, especially following the Sea Eagles lucky escape last week against
a 12-man Sharks side who they were expected to thrash. Manly are without
Jamie Lyon and Jason King here whilst the Titans have named a full
strength side that I expect will do very well on this trip to Sydney as
they cap an impressive regular season off with another strong showing.
The Titans know that in order to stamp themselves as serious title
contenders they need to win a big game like this in Sydney and what
better dress rehearsal than to beat Manly at Broookvale. There is a lot
to like about this Titans side who are stacked with more playmakers and
potency across the park than any other side in the competition which is
all capped off nicely with the depth of experience throughout the squad.
Short and sweet, I expect a better performance from Manly but I've not
been overly impressed with Orfords form, and without Lyon there to ease
some of the offensive burden they will struggle. The Titans have been
given a very generous point start from the Bookies and I recommend
getting on it! Pick – 3 units on Titans +10.5 point start (BEST BET)
and
1 unit on Titans to win
Sharks v Rabbitohs
NO PLAY
Both these sides performed well above expectations last week with the
Sharks very nearly upsetting Manly (doing so with 12 men for most of the
match following the Douglas send-off) and Souths shocking everyone in
hammering the Dragons. The Bookies can't split these sides and neither
can I, the Bunnies have performed better in 2009 than the Sharks and do
have the better side on paper that lacks nothing in offensive firepower
but they've lacked any real consistency and who knows if they can put in
back-to-back blinders....this match is the last in the NRL for Wing and
Hughes, two players who deserve a big send-off. This is not a forum for
playing guessing games and I highly recommend keeping your wallet firmly
tucked away here as this result could go either way. Pick – no play
Roosters v Cowboys
NO PLAY
The Roosters have a very commanding record over the Cowboys, especially
in Sydney where they've won 8 of their last 9 clashes, but with the way
they've played in 2009 and with further off-field drama this week around
Sa, who knows if they can drag themselves off the carpet and put in one
last ditch effort to avoid the Wooden Spoon and send their captain
Fitzgibbon off in his last game in the NRL in style. I like that
Minichiello is finally back at fullback but there is just too much not
to like about the Roosters this season, this is their best shot at a win
for some time though up against a Cowboys side who're hit with injuries
to Bowen, Payne and Rovelli (although Burns in for Rovelli at five-eight
is actually a good thing) and who have struggled away from Townsville
this year. Again there are better options this round as the result here
is in the balance, I'm tempted to back the Roosters to send Freddy
Fittler and Fitzy off in style but they've burnt me too often in 2009
and shown no heart and even less spine. Pick – no play
Knights v Panthers
NO PLAY
Both these sides have their season on the line here with the winner
going through to the Finals and the loser confined to 9th place. The
Knights have lost Rogers at five-eight but have good cover in Dureau,
whilst the Panthers have named close to their strongest side, the big
factor in this match is the fact it's being played in Newcastle in front
of what will no doubt be a full house, which will definitely lift the
Knights. Both these sides were disappointing last week, the Panthers
being thrashed by the Eels and the Knights easily beaten by the Raiders
so neither approach this with any real momentum. The Bookies have the
line about right here and while the Panthers look very good on paper
I've got a question mark as to whether they can hold out this Knights
attack who'll be lead well by Mullen, DeGois and Dureau who will play
the match at a very hectic pace which could catch the big Panthers
forwards going backwards all day. Again there's better value elsewhere.
Pick – no play
Broncos 13+ v Raiders
2 at 1.99
-2
This is a great opportunity for the Broncos to go some way to wiping the
memories of Round 21 where they were beaten 56-0 by the Raiders in
Canberra; the Raiders have travelled poorly in 2009 and are up against a
Broncos side that’s playing much much better since that embarrassing
affair. Short and sweet - the Bookies have the Broncos as firm
favourites with a big line that I expect them to cover with ease; there
will be a number of players itching to exert revenge here and will do so
in style. The Raiders have conceded plenty of tries away from home and
won't be able to keep out the rejuvinated Broncos who are finally
starting to play up to the level they promise on paper. The Broncos will
dominate every aspect of this match and, in front of a large home crowd,
will enter the finals on a big high. Pick – 2 units on Broncos 13+
NRL ROUND TWENTY-FIVE
Broncos -6.5 v Cowboys
2 at 1.95
-2
As their lead slipped away last week
against the Knights so did (realistically) the Cowboys season and they
could struggle a little for motivation here against a Broncos side
who're all of a sudden looking very sharp and have the added bonus of
welcoming back superstar Israel Folau into the Centres for this match
who will add another dimension to their attack. The Broncos have won
their last four in a row against the Cowboys, including two played in
Townsville, and have all the confidence, momentum and motivation going
into this clash and should come away with the win here. We could see a
repeat of the defensive effort that held the Dragons to just 2 points
last week and we should see no shortage of points from the visitors who
have game-breakers all over the park, none more so than Folau whose
prolific ability to draw in defenders and win the aerial battle in
gathering up Lockyer's cross field kicks will hurt the Cowboys. Pick – 2
units on Broncos -6.5 point start
Eels -7.5 v Panthers
2 at 1.92
+1.84
The last time these two sides met was in
Round 17 and it was a try-fest won eventually by the Panthers following
some late heroics, given how the Eels are playing however there's no way
they'll concede anywhere near that number of tries again here, but I
would rate them a good chance of repeating their offensive effort from
that match. Just when you thought Hayne couldn't get any better he
pulled out a performance last week against the Tigers that was
jaw-dropping and I expect this week he'll continue where he left off.
Short and sweet for this match, the result is crucial for both sides but
the Eels are a side that's riding the crest of a wave and will win this
match easily; the confidence, accuracy and intensity of the Eels will
make them a very dangerous proposition for any side who has the
misfortune of facing them in the finals. Pick – 2 units on Eels -8.5 or
better point start
Titans v Wests Tigers
NO PLAY
The Tigers go into this match with a
number of players either out injured or who are carrying injuries which
does not bode well for their chances of making the finals, with anything
short of a win here almost certainly ending their chances; the Titans on
the other hand have secured their finals birth and will hope to cement
their top four spot with a good win here. The Titans are very tough to
beat at Skilled Park and are rightfully favourites against the injury
plagued Tigers, I'm not about to write off the visitors here though as
Tim Sheens is a very canny coach and will have his side (regardless of
who takes the field) primed and ready to throw everything at the Titans,
whether that's enough though will remain to be seen. Pick – no play
Dragons -20.0 v Rabbitohs
2 at 1.92
-2
The Dragons will get things back on track
here against a Bunnies side they’ve beaten in 11 of their last 12
encounters and who've been hit hard with injuries to key players. The
Dragons will have been working hard all week to rediscover the winning
form that propelled them to clear premiership favourites and I believe
this match is the perfect platform for that, they'll offer way too much
on attack, won't offer anything cheap on defence and will win every
aspect of this match. Short and sweet - this is going to get ugly for
the injury hit Bunnies. The Bookies have given the Bunnies a large
points start but the Dragons won’t take long to haul that in and will
cover with ease. Pick – 2 units on Dragons -20.0 point start
Storm -20.0 v Roosters
3 at 1.90
+2.7
Like the Dragons match this is a
perfect platform for the Strom to rediscover their top form and post a
huge morale boosting victory over the cellar dwelling Roosters. Bellamy
has lost patience with his side and they'll have had a week of training
they'd rather forget. The Roosters total lack of structure and accuracy
on attack is not pretty to watch and they'll be lucky to get into double
digits here whilst I expect the Storm to spend most of the game camped
on the Roosters line and whilst their offence has not set the world on
fire recently their are plenty of ways through this Roosters defensive
line who continue to give up big totals. This is going all the way of
the Storm who have the added bonus of Inglis returning and it’s going to
be a bath. Pick – 3 units on Storm -20.0 point start
(BEST BET)
Sea Eagles -23.5 v Sharks
2 at 1.91
-2
The Sea Eagles finally welcome back Brett
Stewart at Fullback for this match and given his uncanny try-scoring
abilities and how they lift to new levels with him in the side he may
have just turned what was going to be a big win to Manly into a
massacre. The line on offer from the Bookies here (+23.5 to Cronulla) is
outrageous and I can't remember a bigger one but it is every bit
justified given the Sharks continued demise and Manly's steady rise of
late. I'm not going to strain a digit typing all the areas in which
Manly have superiority over the Sharks as they are more than
numerous.....the line is large but it'll probably be wiped out in the
first half alone. Pick – 2 units on Manly -23.5 point start
Bulldogs v Warriors
NO PLAY
The Warriors were impressive last week in
beating the Raiders in Auckland but head into this game without their
very influential captain Steve Price, and given their record without him
and record playing away from New Zealand it's easy to see why the
Bookies have gone for such a big line against a Bulldogs side that's
vying for the minor premiership. Even the Warriors at their
unpredictable best would struggle to match this Dogs side who welcome
back the extra firepower of Hannant and Roberts for this match. The
Bookies have the line about right here and there's better value in other
matches. Pick – no play
Raiders v Knights
NO PLAY
Just what sort of frame of mind the
Raiders are in for this match is hard to know, we saw them at their
brutal best just two weeks ago here in beating the Dragons but after a
season punctuated with inconsistency it's hard to know if they've got
one more big game left in them or not, the Knights on the other hand
have their season on the line and will lack absolutely nothing in
motivation. I am tempted to back the Knights here but it is not with any
great confidence as the Knights have a very poor record in Canberra and
the Raiders may, just may have one last big effort left in them. Pick –
no play
Tiger Woods 3.50
Phil Mickelson 5.50
P Harrington 13.00
Rory Mcilroy 17.00
Lee Westwood 19.00
Retief Goosen 23.00
Jim Furyk 26.00
Geoff Ogilvy 26.00
Steve Stricker 26.00
Adam Scott 29.00
Sergio Garcia 31.00
Ernie Els 31.00
Henrik Stenson 31.00
Paul Casey 31.00
Angel Cabrera 31.00
Ross Fisher 31.00
Vijay Singh 34.00
+3.68
-3
RECORD
