with OTP's National Rugby League expert
Updated 11:19 PM AEST, Thursday 29 September
WANT TO KNOW WHEN NEW
TIPS ARE POSTED? FOLLOW US ONTWITTER
NRL GRAND FINAL
Manly -5.5 v New Zealand
4 at 1.82
+3.28
Glenn Stewart to win Churchill Medal
1 at 11.00
+10
I'll be the first to put my hand up and
admit to a spineless back-end of the season in tipping, a lot of which
can be attributed to my bogey team the Warriors who seem to delight in
losing when I back them, and winning when I back against them....not
this week though. I’m certain the Warriors have met their match here
against this Sea Eagles team who are the complete football side - highly
clinical in both attack and defence, intelligence to know what options
to take and when, flare and brilliance in key positions,
fitness/strength that always sees them competing for the full 80 minutes
and consistency. With Glenn Stewart back the Sea Eagles are at full
strength and given they’ve outscored their last two opponents, the
Cowboys and Broncos, by a combined total of 68-22 points his return will
add yet another dimension to their game as his powerful running and
offloading ability create opportunities for those running off him, such
as his brother Brett. The Warriors are well deserving of their spot here
in the Grand Final and have a huge amount of talent in their ranks but
the Sea Eagles will put more pressure on them, particularly Johnson and
Maloney, than they've had from recent opponents and with that pressure
will come mistakes as I'm convinced they won't be able to repeat their
very high completion rate from last week, which in the end was the key
ingredient to their success. It's been a fairy tale season for both
halfbacks in Cherry-Evans and Johnson but it's Cherry-Evans who has
played the entire year in first-grade and has proven over and over what
a cool head he has on his shoulders and he'll again lead this offence,
along with Foran and Lyon, to overwhelm the Warriors. Get on Manly to
cover the start and for Glenn Stewart to come in fresh and have a huge
match, coming away with the Churchill Medal. Pick – 4 units on Sea
Eagles -5.5 point start and 1 unit on Glenn Stewart to win Churchill
Medal
NRL FINALS WEEK THREE
Sea Eagles -6.5 v Broncos
3 at 1.92
+2.76
The loss of Lockyer for the Broncos is a
two-fold kick in the guts as they'll greatly miss his inspirational
leadership as well as his superior playmaking abilities, which has
gotten them to where they are now, and the grand final qualifying match
is not the time you want to be bringing in an inexperienced five-eighth,
which the Broncos have been forced to do in naming Gillett as Lockyers
replacement. The Broncos do welcome back Sam Thaiday which is a huge
boost for their forward pack but they'll still have their work cut out
for them against what is a very powerful, fit and physical Sea Eagles
pack who have dominated opposition all season. The Sea Eagles go into
this fresh following the week off and given the battle the Broncos had
against the Dragons in qualifying for this match I'm sure we'll see the
difference on the field as the very fit Sea Eagles side will play this
match with their usual up-tempo style and will look to run them off
their feet. There is so much to like about this Sea Eagles side, the
young halves of Cherry-Evans and Foran continue to play with maturity
well beyond their years and have shown already in crunch matches in 2011
that they're more than capable of absorbing the pressure and stepping
up. The bookies have not given the Sea Eagles a huge line to cover and
they'll do it with ease, the score will mount up as the Broncos struggle
for points in the face of an uncompromised defence and as the match
wears on their tired legs will cost them points. Pick - 3 units on Sea
Eagles -6.5 point start
Storm -6.5 v Warriors
4 at 1.92
-4
Both these sides bring contrasting
styles to the table here and I'm backing the controlled and well-drilled
Storm to prevail over the unpredictable Warriors. The template for the
victory here will have been thoroughly worked through by Craig Bellamy,
it will be based around their rock solid defence and superior kicking
game from Smith and Cronk which will have the Warriors struggling for
field position and force them into the razzle-dazzle attack that works
against lesser defences but will play into the Storms hands. The honours
have been shared between these sides this year with one win a piece but
the Storm excel at this time of the year and know how to win the big
games, having made the grand final 4 out of the last 5 years, winning 2
of them, the Warriors on the other hand have made the grand final just
once in their history with the majority of this current side having
never come so close as they are now and I believe they're still at least
a season away from getting there, once a bit more experience is under
their belt. Get on the Storm to cover the point start. Pick - 4 units on
Storm -7.5 or better point start (BEST BET)
NRL FINALS WEEK TWO
Tigers -8.5 v Warriors
4 at 1.92
-4
The Warriors saved probably their
worst game of the season until the finals when they were embarrassed by
the Broncos last week and that will not be an easy loss to bounce back
from at all such was their total capitulation – attitude, handling,
tackling…you name it they were shocking at it. The Tigers on the other
hand are seeking their 10th straight win here after showing plenty of
character last week in erasing a half time deficit to storm home against
the Dragons and it will take more than this Warriors side to end their
2011 season. Benji Marshall continues to prove each week what a match
winner he is and even the best made plans to stop him fall to pieces in
the wake of one of his side steps, cut out passes or chip kicks and the
Warriors, like most other sides, won’t have an answer to his bag of
tricks. The line here should be larger as the Tigers have all the
momentum, have a stronger forward pack, more character and will have a
large crowd behind them……but most importantly, they have Marshall. Get
on the Tigers to squash the Warriors. Pick – 4 units on Tigers -8.5
point start (BEST BET)
Broncos -2.5 v Dragons
3 at 1.92
-3
It was not a good sight at all to see the
Dragons completely fold in the second half last week against the Tigers,
unable to hold onto the half time lead, and I think it’s finally time we
(me in particular) came to the realisation that they simply are not
anywhere near the side that won the Grand Final last season. The simple
style in which the Dragons play requires 100% commitment, hunger and
spirit from the entire team to be successful – they had that last season
but have lost it now and this will subsequently be their last match for
2011. The Broncos were completely dominant in embarrassing the Warriors
last week and showed what a great team unit they are with Beale and Teo
both stepping up to fill the big shoes of Hoffman and Thaiday as the
side did not miss a beat scoring seven tires. The Broncos offence is
being led superbly by their experienced halves pairing of Wallace and
Lockyer who are both in scintillating form and they’re creating numerous
opportunities for their talented young backline, whilst the forwards are
consistently dominating their opposites. The bookies have installed the
Broncos as slight favourites and they should cover the narrow line
easily. Pick – 3 units on Broncos -4.5 or better point start
The Tigers have won their last eight
matches in a row going into this but the last four wins have been
against sides that missed out on the top eight and that lack of quality
opposition could well come back to bite them here as they’re taking on a
full strength Dragons side that looks to have their swagger back. The
Dragons will have their hands full with this Tigers forward pack but
should be able to match their physicality and do have a number of ball
players amongst their forwards who can hurt the Tigers in the likes of
Young, Creagh and Fien. We all know of the brilliance both these sides
backlines possess but with the exception of Marshall and Tuqiri the
Tigers are relatively inexperienced when it comes to finals pressure
football, the Dragons on the other hand have a backline that’s proven
themselves at this level having won the premiership last year. The
Tigers offense has been thriving of late off the back of the usual
Marshall and Farah brilliance but the Dragons defence will be watching
those two like a hawk and they won’t have the room and time with the
ball that most other teams have allowed which could well see the Tigers
struggling to score points. The Dragons will play their highly clinical
and effective game here based on completing their sets, dominating field
position and moving up hard on defence and I believe they’ll be too
strong across the park for this Tigers side. Pick – 4 units on Dragons
-2.0 point start (BEST BET)
The Warriors go into this having won 7 of
their last 8 matches following the round 17 bye, with the 2 losses being
by the narrowest of margins - 4 points (Dragons) and 1 point to the
Broncos here at Suncorp. There is a maturity, consistency and sense of
belief in this Warriors side that I’ve not seen for many years and
they’re playing with a brilliant mix of structure and raw flair which is
why they’ve finished the regular season with a wet sail and have every
chance of going deep into the finals, starting with a win here. The
Broncos will sorely miss both Thaiday and Hoffman in this match, but do
get Hodges back, whilst the Warriors will be back to full strength with
the return of Heremaia and The Beast – Manu Vatuvai, who usually saves
his best games for such occasions as these. This will be an emotional
night for Lockyer as he runs out onto Suncorp for the last time and
unfortunately I’m predicting it won’t be capped off with a win as the
Broncos add to their shocking finals record at Suncorp (they’ve won 1
from 7 matches). Get on the visiting Kiwi side to win. Pick – 3 units on
Warriors to win
Cowboys +7.5 v Sea Eagles
3 at 1.92
-3
The Cowboys do not have the form going into
this match to inspire any real confidence, having won just 1 of their
last 5 matches, but they are a very canny side full of experience and
talent and will have put the regular season well and truly behind them
as they focus on this one match where they’ve got every chance of
causing a boil over. Going into these types of matches you want players
with big match experience to lead the way and what better person in the
world of rugby league than Jonathan Thurston who will look to exploit
the lack of big game finals experience the Sea Eagles have in their
halves and put in one of his signature match-winning performances that
you can sense is around the corner. The Sea Eagles Halves in
Cheery-Evans and Foran have been great but this is another level now and
they’re up against a very experienced and capable Cowboys side and will
be tested like at no other time during the season to date. I like this
to go down to the wire with the result up in the air, but I like the
Cowboys with the start. Pick – 3 units on Cowboys +7.5 point start
NRL ROUND TWENTY-SIX
Dragons -14.5 v Panthers
3 at 1.95
+2.85
The Dragons scraped past a determined Warriors side last week, breaking
their run of seven consecutive losses, and should find the going a lot
easier this week against a Panthers side that is playing their last
match of 2011 and could be lacking the motivation needed to make this
close. Lewis is back for the Panthers but they're without some key
firepower in their captain Civoniceva and Trent Waterhouse in the
forwards whilst the Dragons are fully fit and will be very tough to beat
in front of what will be a packed WIN Stadium. The good signs for the
Dragons in their win over the Warriors was that their offence finally
took some some shape after a relative point scoring drought during their
losing streak and this is a perfect chance to further fine-tune things
before the final and I can't see the Panthers keeping pace with them on
the scoreboard as the Dragons forward pack get the early ascendancy and
the classy backs continue on from last week. The line here is not large
enough from the bookies as the Dragons should have complete dominance.
Pick - 3 units on Dragons -14.5 point start
Knights to beat Rabbitohs
4 at 1.94
+3.76
The home ground advantage for this match is huge as it's essentially a
final for both sides, the loser bows out whilst the winner secures a top
eight spot (barring a miracle in the Bulldogs game) and I'm favouring
the Knights to come up trumps against a Bunnies side missing their key
link at Centre Greg Inglis. The Knights have the stronger of the two
defences and that's where I feel they'll win it, shutting down Sandow
and Sutton and marking up on the likes of Isaac Luke around the rucks.
On attack the Knights have been up and down with no better illustration
of that than last weeks game against the Dogs where they amassed 24
points in the first half, only to go scoreless in the second, but I'm
confident we'll see the smarts of Mullen and Gidley steer the ship well
here and create plenty for the likes of Uate, McDougall and others to
finish. There will be a huge crowd of loyal Novocastrians cheering on
their side here and the whole team will lift. The bookies have gone for
slight favouritism of the Knights who still offer very good value at the
head to head - which we'll take. Pick - 4 units on Knights -1.5 points
or better
start (BEST BET)
Bulldogs -9.5 v Raiders
3 at 1.92
+2.76
The curtain will finally come down on what has been
an abysmal season for the Raiders and their lack of fight and ability
was again highlighted last week when they were unable to come away with
a win over the Panthers in what should have been a fitting homeground
farewell for their captain Alan Tongue. The Raiders have very few
genuine options on attack as Sam Williams is still finding his feet in
first grade and they continue to make costly errors across the park, as
they have all year, gifting the opposition field position, with their
brittle defence then unable to stop the inevitable flow of points. The
Dogs need a miracle to scrape into the top eight, requiring a huge win
here, whilst hoping the Rabbitohs narrowly beat the Knights, but given
they're up against one of the weakest defences in the competition it's
not out of the question to expect a good number of tries from the home
side as they dream of the impossible. The Dogs showed what they're
capable of offensively in the second half demolition of the Knights last
week and I expect them to start here as they finished there - tries, and
plenty of them! Pick - 3 units on Bulldogs -9.5 point start
Storm -7.5 v Roosters
4 at 1.92
-4
Roosters v The Roosters came away with the golden point win last week
over the Eels, having gone scoreless for 65 minutes of the match only to
get home late, they'll come up against a fired up Storm side here though
who will get back to winning ways in style following their loss to the
Sea Eagles last week, their first loss in 13 matches. The Storm
crucuially welcome back Cooper Cronk for this match which reinstates the
best halfback/hooker/fullback combination in rugby league and he will as
always run the show on attack and create opportunities for the numerous
gamebreakers around him to convert into points. The Roosters do have
somewhat of a dangerous looking backline but they are reliant on their
forwards to gain some ascendancy up front, which won't happen here and
the Storm will have no problems repelling them. With many having written
off their 2011 chances before the season the Strom have set out and
proved everyone wrong by winning the minor premiership which they'll cap
in style here with a big win. Pick - 4 units on Storm -8.5 or better point start
All the
latest from Glenn Munsie at the TAB - each Thurs
Latest betting moves and
news from the Tattsbet
office
Betfair
update you on their most recent in-running
action
FUTURES
GOLF
2012 US MASTERS
Mickelson, Phil 6.00
Mcilroy, Rory 7.00
Woods, Tiger 8.50
Westwood, Lee 21.00
Donald, Luke 21.00
Watney, Nick 26.00
Kaymer, Martin 34.00
Johnson, Dustin 34.00
Scott, Adam 34.00
Schwartzel, C 34.00
Day, Jason 34.00
Mahan, Hunter 36.00
Garcia, Sergio 36.00
Mcdowell, Graeme 36.00
Watson, Bubba 36.00
Kim, Anthony 36.00
Ogilvy, Geoff 36.00
Fowler, Rickie 36.00
Harrington, P 41.00
Stricker, Steve 41.00
Poulter, Ian 41.00
Cabrera, Angel 41.00
Kuchar, Matt 41.00
Simpson, Webb 41.00
+3.28
-4
RECORD
