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Tuesday February 9, 2010 -





NRL PREVIEWS & PLAYS
...with OTP's National Rugby League expert

Updated 7:51 PM AEST, Thursday 1 October

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NRL GRAND FINAL

Melbourne -4.0 vs Parramatta 4 at 1.92 +3.68
This has all the makings of an absolutely brilliant grand final with both sides peaking perfectly for this match and both sides at full strength (Cayless was included in Eels side at time of writing). The surge of the Eels has been simply unstoppable, that is until now, as I feel the only side who've been capable of halting their charge for the premiership is the Storm who are as battle-hardened as they come and equipped both offensively and defensively to handle what the Eels throw at them. Of these two sides it's the Storm who are the more clinical in their play and slightly edge the Eels in terms of flare and added to this the majority of the Strom side can no doubt still taste the bitter disappointment that was last years grand final, in which they were thrashed by Manly, and will be quietly confident of putting that match to rest here. The Eels have the Hayne factor but the Storm will be up for what he throws their way, the Storm on the other hand have the weight of experience in the Halves with Cronk and Finch in season best form and again we'll see some big metres gained from the Storm around the ruck (particularly from Smith who will relish this match after missing last years final) which will create the attacking momentum and keep the Eels on their heels, whilst defensively the Storm are the strongest unit the Eels will have played of late and in this match they won't have the missed tackles and slower line speed they've enjoyed from recent opposition. The Eels story to date has been somewhat of a fairytale but there'll be no glass slipper for them here as the Storm take out the grand final, covering the narrow margin in the process. Pick – 4 units on Storm -4.0 point start (BEST BET)

 

NRL FINALS WEEK THREE

Parramatta to bt Bulldogs 2 at 1.92 +1.84
The Eels look simply unstoppable and the only team who does have a chance to halt their surge for the title is Melbourne, who I expect them to play in the Grand Final next week. The Dogs have had a great season but their lead up to this very important match has been soft, with a week off last week and a win over the Knights the week before, whereas the Eels have hammered both the Titans and the minor premier Dragons in the last two weeks, they've also got a fully fit squad and players that have peaked at the perfect time in the season. The Dogs will be solid here and, as they have all year, do the basics very well, unfortunately for them though it'll take more than this to beat the Eels, who themselves are doing the basics extremely well but are also adding the x-factor to each display, with a forward pack whose work rate is second to none and a backline choc-full of attacking options. I'm not convinced Kimmorley will be anywhere near his best after a few weeks off and even though Roberts has come on strong in 2009 this is a different stage and will require another step up in play, and I'm not sure he's got that in him just yet in his career, whereas the Eels have so many options there's not one player that has such an attacking burden resting on them. The Eels have won 5 of their last 6 against the Dogs and will share equal support amongst the near capacity crowd at ANZ Stadium, it'll be the blue and golds who are cheering loudest come the final whistle though. Pick – 2 units on Eels to win
Melbourne -8.5 vs Brisbane 3 at 1.94 +2.82
As I've said above the only team capable of stopping the Storm are the Eels, which obviously means I'm siding heavily on the Storm to take this match out comfortably. Credit to the Broncos for their last couple of wins over the Titans and Dragons where they, particularly last week over the Dragons, essentially out-muscled and beat the opposition forward pack into submission, which spearheaded the rest of the side into almost complete dominance, they will certainly not have that same dominance this week though as the Storm will, I expect, reverse the tables on them and it will be the Broncos who struggle to cope with the intensity and physicality of the match. The Broncos are going to struggle without Wallace's kicking game and his absence will just add to the pressure on Lockyer, who the Storm will be targeting all match. Short and sweet here, the Storm own the Broncos, particularly in Melbourne, and have too many big game players brimming with experience in the heat of finals footy. This is going to be a very comfortable win to the home side who have the premiership within their grasp yet again. Pick – 3 units on Storm -8.5 point start (BEST BET)

 

NRL FINALS WEEK TWO

Dragons to beat Brisbane 3 at 1.88 -3
What a contrasting fortnight it's been for the Minor Premiers the Dragons having thumped the Eels 37-0 then losing to them by 13 points the following week in a complete turnaround which leads them this week to Brisbane in a sudden death match….and the script could not have been written any better really with coaches Bennett facing off against the Henjak. The Dragons were well short of their best last week against the Eels and will turn things around here in style, their forwards were far from the dominant force they've been all year; what will worry the Broncos is the fact that last time the Dragons suffered a shock defeat was against Souths a month ago and they bounced back hard the following week to hammer the Eels in that 37-0 rout, they'll be buoyed by the impressive record they have in Brisbane also having won their last 5 matches played at Suncorp Stadium and 8 of their last 9 overall against the Broncos. The Broncos come into this following their 40-32 victory over Gold Coast, the fact they conceded 32 points is a worry as is the fact that the Titans played below their best so any confidence they get out of that match is somewhat false. The Broncos have some real stars within their side but the Dragons are simply unstoppable as a combined unit and when the juggernaut starts to roll, as I have no doubt it will here, they operate with a near impenetrable defence and a clinical attack that this Broncos side won't be able to withhold. Even though they've been winning I'm not getting carried away with this Broncos side and I expect the Dragons master coach Wayne Bennett to add another chapter to his triumphs at this ground, he lead the visiting Kiwis over the Kangaroos last year and he'll be relishing this match-up. Quite simply the Dragons are a better side and won’t give the Broncos any of the offensive freedom they enjoyed against the Raiders and Titans over the last fortnight, whilst the pace of the match from the Dragons will have the home side back-pedalling all day. Pick – 3 units on Dragons to win (BEST BET)
Gold Coast +8.0 vs Parramatta 2 at 1.96 -2
I've not liked the direction the Titans have headed in over the last fortnight, having put in two sub-par performances in losing to both Manly and Brisbane, conceding a combined 78 points in the process, the realities of what they now face is in flashing neon lights though and I believe we'll see a return to the attitude and intensity here that saw them finish the season third on the table. The Eels have showed us both sides of their personality in the last fortnight and I've seen it time and again in league after teams have scaled their Everest one week they struggle to reach the same heights the next week so the issue facing Daniel Anderson is one of motivating his side to the same intensity they showed in downing the Dragons last week, whilst the motivation for the Titans has never been stronger and their intensity should reflect the fact they now face their own Everest here. I've sounded a little like a broken record the last few weeks in describing the numerous strengths this Titans side have – they’re brimming with experience and have a forward pack that is as strong, if not stronger, than any in the competition, yet have not risen to the heights recently that I have expected from them - this week again though that broken record is still playing and I'm backing them to throw everything into the ring here, look for the older masters of Prince, Bailey, Rogers, Campbell, and co to really step up and lead this side in a very competitive performance. The result here is really in the balance and the Bookmakers have jumped on the Eels ship, which is good for us as I recommend getting on the generous point start on offer to the visitors. Pick – 2 units on Gold Coast +10.5 point start.

 

NRL FINALS WEEK ONE

Melbourne to bt Manly 3 at 1.95 +2.85
I'm very pleased to see the Bookies be sucked in by Manly's win last week over a Titans side that played their worst match of the season and made Manly look back to their premiership winning best and whilst their defence may be close to that level their attack is not, with or without Lyon. The Storm know what to expect here and have had a year to reflect on the grand final humiliation they suffered in 2008 and this match, more so than any other they've played in 2009, they will show all their cards and I expect them to come up with a Royal Flush - they have more class on attack in key positions than the Sea Eagles and I expect Bellamy to have worked on a game plan to counter the rush defence of the visitors. The Bookies have predictably gone for a fairly even market here….I strongly recommend making them pay - get on the Storm to win!! Pick – 3 units on Storm to win (BEST BET)
Gold Coast to bt Brisbane 2 at 2.65 -2
The Titans were terrible last week in losing heavily to the Sea Eagles, it was a very timely wake-up call that this side is definitely good enough to respond to especially given they're back on home turf and with a couple of regulars returning in Meyers and Delaney. Whilst you can't argue with the Broncos excellent record in making the play-offs over the years their actual record once they're there is not flash at all and I'm afraid it's about to get even worse. The Titans have playmakers all across the field and whilst they were disappointing against Manly they have the depth of experience and talent to turn things around here in front of their home fans that have become accustomed to watching the Titans win at Skilled Park. The Broncos have shown a real lack of consistency in 2009 and looked odds on to miss the play-offs at one stage whilst the Titans have been a more dominant force and have made this trip to Skilled Park one of the toughest away journeys for visiting sides in the competition. Prince will turn things around this week for the Titans whose mobile pack will run the Broncos ragged with Friend, Campbell and co eating up some big yardage around the fringes. The Bookies have the Broncos as favourites here which means good value in backing the Titans. Pick – 2 units on Titans to win
Bulldogs -5.5 vs Newcastle 3 at 1.92 +2.76
The Tigers did not do the Knights any favours last week in thrashing the Bulldogs as I've no doubt it was the slap in the face the Dogs needed going into this clash as each and every player (especially Ennis and Roberts) lifts their accountability and performance to accommodate the absence of Kimmorley and we'll see a very different Dogs side take the field this week. The Dogs will return to the basics of punishing defence that we've seen from them for most of the season and a fast paced offence that will win the field position stakes. Short and sweet here, just like the Dragons last week I expect the Dogs to remind us all just how good they are with a bruising and clinical win here, covering the point start. Pick – 3 units on Bulldogs -5.5 point start
St George-Illa. vs Parramatta NO PLAY
The momentum the Eels had built up in the weeks preceding last weeks match against the Dragons was all but forgotten following their 37-0 demolition and with just one week to dust themselves off before this replay I just can't see a change in the result, although expect a closer match. The Dragons were just too clinical in everything they did last week with a return to the game plan and the form they've shown for most of the season that had many believing they couldn't be beaten. In front of another sell-out crowd the Dragons will again lift to the same intensity they showed on Friday night; the Eels will be lifted by the return of Hindmarsh to the side but the freight train that was their rush to the play-offs has come to a sudden halt and it’s hard to know if they can turn things around. The line is about right here and there’s better value elsewhere. Pick – no play

 

NRL ROUND TWENTY-SIX

Wests Tigers +6.5 v Bulldogs 2 at 1.90 +1.8
This match kicks off one of the more difficult rounds for punters in the NRL season where the finals spots are all but decided (with the exception of the Knights/Panthers match) the temperament and attitude of each side can be hard to judge, with players minds either on next weeks finals or on Mad Monday. The Tigers are one side I'm confident will approach this week with the same attitude and intensity as if they were still alive in season 2009, their injury hit line-up were run down last week by the Titans but put in a gallant effort and they'll be even stronger here back home and with a more healthy line-up. The Dogs are going to really miss the injured Kimmorley as he is the heart and soul of this side, not only in the way he guides the offence but with the leadership and overall tenacity he brings to the side, constantly lifting and challenging them to greater heights. The Bookies have given the Tigers a generous point start here and I'm happy to recommend getting on it as the Dogs won't have the same cohesion on attack without their inspirational Halfback whilst the Tigers have plenty of dangerous options on attack. Pick – 2 units on Tigers +6.5 point start
Dragons v Eels NO PLAY
What a great match this promises to be as the Dragons search for answers before the finals to their rapid decline and the Eels look to continue their seemingly unstoppable surge. It is very tempting here to recommend backing the Eels for yet another win here given how well they're playing but something tells me the Dragons will be back to their best here, anything short of which will see them going into the finals with four straight losses to their name and you'd be a very brave punter to back them to win the Premiership from there. We know just how good this Dragons side is and their problem at the moment is mental, they've no better person to turn them around though than Wayne Bennett who will have used his years and years of experience this week and as a result I expect every Dragons player will lift their game from last weeks embarrassing loss to Souths. Not a good match for punters, expect to see a rejuvenated Dragons side but it's questionable whether the Eels can be stopped by anyone at the moment, we'll see. Pick – no play
Storm -8.0 v Warriors 3 at 1.90 +2.7
The last two matches between these sides in Auckland have been shared one win a piece and have yielded a combined points total of 20 - which is absolutely staggering! There will be a large home crowd here to farewell the Little General, unfortunately for the Warriors though there's a gulf of talent between them and this Storm side who go into this fresh off a very big win over the Roosters and with their offence looking back to its devastating best following the return of Inglis to the side. The Warriors are still without Steve Price for this match, with Ropati and their main attacking weapon - Manu Vatuvai also added to the injury list here. Short and sweet, the Warriors will struggle to break through the Storm defence as the visitors approach this match like it's the finals and as the home side become more and more frustrated there’ll be plenty of turnover ball which the Storm will take full advantage of and will easily cover the line on offer from the Bookies. Pick – 3 units on Storm -8.0 point start
Titans to bt Sea Eagles 1 at 3.75 -1
Titans +10.5 v Sea Eagles 3 at 1.91 -3
The Titans will rate themselves a very good chance of beating Manly here, especially following the Sea Eagles lucky escape last week against a 12-man Sharks side who they were expected to thrash. Manly are without Jamie Lyon and Jason King here whilst the Titans have named a full strength side that I expect will do very well on this trip to Sydney as they cap an impressive regular season off with another strong showing. The Titans know that in order to stamp themselves as serious title contenders they need to win a big game like this in Sydney and what better dress rehearsal than to beat Manly at Broookvale. There is a lot to like about this Titans side who are stacked with more playmakers and potency across the park than any other side in the competition which is all capped off nicely with the depth of experience throughout the squad. Short and sweet, I expect a better performance from Manly but I've not been overly impressed with Orfords form, and without Lyon there to ease some of the offensive burden they will struggle. The Titans have been given a very generous point start from the Bookies and I recommend getting on it! Pick – 3 units on Titans +10.5 point start (BEST BET) and 1 unit on Titans to win
Sharks v Rabbitohs NO PLAY
Both these sides performed well above expectations last week with the Sharks very nearly upsetting Manly (doing so with 12 men for most of the match following the Douglas send-off) and Souths shocking everyone in hammering the Dragons. The Bookies can't split these sides and neither can I, the Bunnies have performed better in 2009 than the Sharks and do have the better side on paper that lacks nothing in offensive firepower but they've lacked any real consistency and who knows if they can put in back-to-back blinders....this match is the last in the NRL for Wing and Hughes, two players who deserve a big send-off. This is not a forum for playing guessing games and I highly recommend keeping your wallet firmly tucked away here as this result could go either way. Pick – no play
Roosters v Cowboys NO PLAY
The Roosters have a very commanding record over the Cowboys, especially in Sydney where they've won 8 of their last 9 clashes, but with the way they've played in 2009 and with further off-field drama this week around Sa, who knows if they can drag themselves off the carpet and put in one last ditch effort to avoid the Wooden Spoon and send their captain Fitzgibbon off in his last game in the NRL in style. I like that Minichiello is finally back at fullback but there is just too much not to like about the Roosters this season, this is their best shot at a win for some time though up against a Cowboys side who're hit with injuries to Bowen, Payne and Rovelli (although Burns in for Rovelli at five-eight is actually a good thing) and who have struggled away from Townsville this year. Again there are better options this round as the result here is in the balance, I'm tempted to back the Roosters to send Freddy Fittler and Fitzy off in style but they've burnt me too often in 2009 and shown no heart and even less spine. Pick – no play
Knights v Panthers NO PLAY
Both these sides have their season on the line here with the winner going through to the Finals and the loser confined to 9th place. The Knights have lost Rogers at five-eight but have good cover in Dureau, whilst the Panthers have named close to their strongest side, the big factor in this match is the fact it's being played in Newcastle in front of what will no doubt be a full house, which will definitely lift the Knights. Both these sides were disappointing last week, the Panthers being thrashed by the Eels and the Knights easily beaten by the Raiders so neither approach this with any real momentum. The Bookies have the line about right here and while the Panthers look very good on paper I've got a question mark as to whether they can hold out this Knights attack who'll be lead well by Mullen, DeGois and Dureau who will play the match at a very hectic pace which could catch the big Panthers forwards going backwards all day. Again there's better value elsewhere. Pick – no play
Broncos 13+ v Raiders 2 at 1.99 -2
This is a great opportunity for the Broncos to go some way to wiping the memories of Round 21 where they were beaten 56-0 by the Raiders in Canberra; the Raiders have travelled poorly in 2009 and are up against a Broncos side that’s playing much much better since that embarrassing affair. Short and sweet - the Bookies have the Broncos as firm favourites with a big line that I expect them to cover with ease; there will be a number of players itching to exert revenge here and will do so in style. The Raiders have conceded plenty of tries away from home and won't be able to keep out the rejuvinated Broncos who are finally starting to play up to the level they promise on paper. The Broncos will dominate every aspect of this match and, in front of a large home crowd, will enter the finals on a big high. Pick – 2 units on Broncos 13+

 

NRL ROUND TWENTY-FIVE

Broncos -6.5 v Cowboys 2 at 1.95 -2
As their lead slipped away last week against the Knights so did (realistically) the Cowboys season and they could struggle a little for motivation here against a Broncos side who're all of a sudden looking very sharp and have the added bonus of welcoming back superstar Israel Folau into the Centres for this match who will add another dimension to their attack. The Broncos have won their last four in a row against the Cowboys, including two played in Townsville, and have all the confidence, momentum and motivation going into this clash and should come away with the win here. We could see a repeat of the defensive effort that held the Dragons to just 2 points last week and we should see no shortage of points from the visitors who have game-breakers all over the park, none more so than Folau whose prolific ability to draw in defenders and win the aerial battle in gathering up Lockyer's cross field kicks will hurt the Cowboys. Pick – 2 units on Broncos -6.5 point start
Eels -7.5 v Panthers 2 at 1.92 +1.84
The last time these two sides met was in Round 17 and it was a try-fest won eventually by the Panthers following some late heroics, given how the Eels are playing however there's no way they'll concede anywhere near that number of tries again here, but I would rate them a good chance of repeating their offensive effort from that match. Just when you thought Hayne couldn't get any better he pulled out a performance last week against the Tigers that was jaw-dropping and I expect this week he'll continue where he left off. Short and sweet for this match, the result is crucial for both sides but the Eels are a side that's riding the crest of a wave and will win this match easily; the confidence, accuracy and intensity of the Eels will make them a very dangerous proposition for any side who has the misfortune of facing them in the finals. Pick – 2 units on Eels -8.5 or better point start
Titans v Wests Tigers NO PLAY
The Tigers go into this match with a number of players either out injured or who are carrying injuries which does not bode well for their chances of making the finals, with anything short of a win here almost certainly ending their chances; the Titans on the other hand have secured their finals birth and will hope to cement their top four spot with a good win here. The Titans are very tough to beat at Skilled Park and are rightfully favourites against the injury plagued Tigers, I'm not about to write off the visitors here though as Tim Sheens is a very canny coach and will have his side (regardless of who takes the field) primed and ready to throw everything at the Titans, whether that's enough though will remain to be seen. Pick – no play
Dragons -20.0 v Rabbitohs  2 at 1.92 -2
The Dragons will get things back on track here against a Bunnies side they’ve beaten in 11 of their last 12 encounters and who've been hit hard with injuries to key players. The Dragons will have been working hard all week to rediscover the winning form that propelled them to clear premiership favourites and I believe this match is the perfect platform for that, they'll offer way too much on attack, won't offer anything cheap on defence and will win every aspect of this match. Short and sweet - this is going to get ugly for the injury hit Bunnies. The Bookies have given the Bunnies a large points start but the Dragons won’t take long to haul that in and will cover with ease. Pick – 2 units on Dragons -20.0 point start
Storm -20.0 v Roosters 3 at 1.90 +2.7
Like the Dragons match this is a perfect platform for the Strom to rediscover their top form and post a huge morale boosting victory over the cellar dwelling Roosters. Bellamy has lost patience with his side and they'll have had a week of training they'd rather forget. The Roosters total lack of structure and accuracy on attack is not pretty to watch and they'll be lucky to get into double digits here whilst I expect the Storm to spend most of the game camped on the Roosters line and whilst their offence has not set the world on fire recently their are plenty of ways through this Roosters defensive line who continue to give up big totals. This is going all the way of the Storm who have the added bonus of Inglis returning and it’s going to be a bath. Pick – 3 units on Storm -20.0 point start (BEST BET)
Sea Eagles -23.5 v Sharks 2 at 1.91 -2
The Sea Eagles finally welcome back Brett Stewart at Fullback for this match and given his uncanny try-scoring abilities and how they lift to new levels with him in the side he may have just turned what was going to be a big win to Manly into a massacre. The line on offer from the Bookies here (+23.5 to Cronulla) is outrageous and I can't remember a bigger one but it is every bit justified given the Sharks continued demise and Manly's steady rise of late. I'm not going to strain a digit typing all the areas in which Manly have superiority over the Sharks as they are more than numerous.....the line is large but it'll probably be wiped out in the first half alone. Pick – 2 units on Manly -23.5 point start
Bulldogs v Warriors NO PLAY
The Warriors were impressive last week in beating the Raiders in Auckland but head into this game without their very influential captain Steve Price, and given their record without him and record playing away from New Zealand it's easy to see why the Bookies have gone for such a big line against a Bulldogs side that's vying for the minor premiership. Even the Warriors at their unpredictable best would struggle to match this Dogs side who welcome back the extra firepower of Hannant and Roberts for this match. The Bookies have the line about right here and there's better value in other matches. Pick – no play
Raiders v Knights NO PLAY
Just what sort of frame of mind the Raiders are in for this match is hard to know, we saw them at their brutal best just two weeks ago here in beating the Dragons but after a season punctuated with inconsistency it's hard to know if they've got one more big game left in them or not, the Knights on the other hand have their season on the line and will lack absolutely nothing in motivation. I am tempted to back the Knights here but it is not with any great confidence as the Knights have a very poor record in Canberra and the Raiders may, just may have one last big effort left in them. Pick – no play

 

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2009 RECORD

WEEK RESULT STAKES ROI BEST BET
FINALS WEEK FOUR +3.68 4 92%
FINALS WEEK THREE +4.76 5 95%
FINALS WEEK TWO -5.00 5 -100%
FINALS WEEK ONE +3.61 8 45%
WEEK TWENTY-SIX -1.50 11 -14%
WEEK TWENTY-FIVE -1.46 11 -13%
WEEK TWENTY-FOUR +5.55 10 56%
WEEK TWENTY-THREE +4.43 9 49%
WEEK TWENTY-TWO +10.13 11 92%
WEEK TWENTY-ONE -0.35 10 -4%
WEEK TWENTY +4.70 14 34%
WEEK NINETEEN +1.31 12 11%
WEEK EIGHTEEN +0.91 5 18%
WEEK SEVENTEEN +9.12 13 70%
WEEK SIXTEEN -7.46 14 -53%
WEEK FIFTEEN -7.00 7 -100%
WEEK FOURTEEN +4.34 9 48%
WEEK THIRTEEN -7.00 7 -100%
WEEK TWELVE +0.28 11 3%
WEEK ELEVEN -3.41 12 -28%
WEEK TEN +7.11 7 102%
WEEK NINE -3.16 7 -45%
WEEK EIGHT +0.76 5 15%
WEEK SEVEN -6.04 10 -60%
WEEK SIX -1.23 6 -21%
WEEK FIVE -5.25 12 -44%
WEEK FOUR +3.17 15 21%
WEEK THREE +2.72 9 30%
WEEK TWO -0.93 9.5 -10%
WEEK ONE +3.01 7.5 40%
TOTAL +19.80 units 276 7% 57%

NRL PAST RECORD

ROUND RESULT STAKES ROI
2008 (New Analyst) +39.75 units 240.5 17%
2007 +22.96 units 138 17%
2006 -2.64 units 181 -1%

 

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FUTURES

 




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2010 PREMIERSHIP

Geelong 4.25
St Kilda 4.25
Western Bulldogs 6.50
Adelaide 9.00
Hawthorn 9.00
Brisbane 12.00
Collingwood 12.00
Carlton 23.00
Essendon 34.00
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Sydney 51.00
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Port Adelaide 67.00
North Melbourne 101.00
Richmond 101.00
Melbourne 151.00

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2010 U.S. MASTERS

Tiger Woods 3.50
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P Harrington 13.00
Rory Mcilroy 17.00
Lee Westwood 19.00
Retief Goosen 23.00
Jim Furyk 26.00
Geoff Ogilvy 26.00
Steve Stricker 26.00
Adam Scott 29.00
Sergio Garcia 31.00
Ernie Els 31.00
Henrik Stenson 31.00
Paul Casey 31.00
Angel Cabrera 31.00
Ross Fisher 31.00
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WIMBLEDON 2010
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JM Del Potro 7.50
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