NRL PREVIEWS & PLAYS
...with OTP's National Rugby League expert
NRL SEASON 2008
Melbourne Storm
NO SEASON PLAY
Clearly deserve to be favourites,
and I can’t see the losses of King, Cross, and Newton causing them too
many troubles. Have seemingly had a production line of talent coming
into first grade, and while I believe the teams competing for positions
2 to 10 or 11 will be very evenly matched, these guys are a class above,
and also boast a massive home ground advantage. I’m not taking the $3.50
that’s available, but their presence scares me off backing a couple of
others too. Backing up after securing the title is the only question
mark hovering over their head. Prediction: 1st
and Grand Final appearance.
Parramatta Eels
NO SEASON PLAY
Certainly have the potential to
challenge for the premiership. Tahu is a big loss, but the continued
development of Hayne, Inu, Mateo and others should see them remain the
most exciting attacking side in the comp. Still have terrific depth, and
I can’t see them lower than 5th. Prediction:
Top 4.
North Queensland Cowboys
NO SEASON PLAY
Even without most of their forward
muscle at the back end of ’07, the Thurston and Bowen show got the
Cowboys to the penultimate weekend of the season. I am saying nothing
new in stating that the 2008 Cowboys will rely almost solely on their
dynamic duo once again. If you were certain both of these guys would be
fully fit and in contention come finals time, there is no way that they
would be anywhere near the 8/1 that’s available for them, but a
long-term injury to either will give them little to no chance come
September. They will be boosted by the returning Luke O’Donnell, and
hopefully more games from Carl Webb, and I’m of the opinion that they
will be the biggest challenge to the Storm’s dominance.
Prediction: Top 4 and Grand Final appearance.
Manly Sea Eagles
NO SEASON PLAY
Over-achieved in 2007 in my opinion.
Career seasons from the likes of Monaghan, Watmough, and the Stewart
brothers masked ‘ordinary’ years from Lyon, Orford, Kite, and others,
and I can’t see them repeating their GF appearance in 2008. The loss of
Monaghan will either force an awful lot of playmaking pressure onto
Orford or force coach Hasler to shift Lyon out of five-eighth, and upset
the sides balance. A slide back closer to mid table is likely.
Prediction: 7th - 11th.
Sydney Roosters
NO SEASON PLAY
Everyone thinks that the Roosters
will be the big improvers in 2008. Well you’d hope so. They finish ’07
off in fine style, and have added a couple of the better forwards in the
comp to their outfit. Mason is a massive plus, and still has a lot of
quality football in front of him. O’Meley on the other hand is probably
past his best, and they paid ‘over the odds’ to get him, in my opinion.
With the addition of Mason comes instant expectation, and how rookie
coach Fittler handles this will be interesting. Market best price of
around $13 gives me the indication that they have already been
‘over-rated’, and this may offer some value in opposing them in early
rounds. Prediction: Top 8.
Brisbane Broncos
NO SEASON PLAY
The losses of Civoniceva and Shaun
Berrigan will hurt the Broncos, but no-one else that departed from Red
Hill in the off-season will cause coach Bennett too many headaches.
Gaining Peter Wallace from Penrith is a massive plus for mine, and while
Clinton is no Petero, and PJ Marsh is no Berrigan, they’re still quality
first graders, and will prove more than handy. Suggesting that the
Broncos will slide is rubbish for mine, and given an improved year with
injuries, especially to Lockyer, Hodges and Hunt, the Broncos still
shape up as massive premiership contenders.
Prediction: Top 4.
New Zealand Warriors
NO SEASON PLAY
The long-term loss of Wade McKinnon
is a massive blow to the Warriors and in my opinion drops them from Top
8 contention into Wooden Spoon reckoning. The only thing stopping me
going that far in their large home ground advantage. Price and Wiki are
a year older. Their style of play won’t be suited by the new 10
interchange rule. Brent Tate is past his best, and they still have
significant question marks surrounding their halves. The Warriors will
slide for mine. Prediction: Bottom half.
Cronulla Sharks
NO SEASON PLAY
Cronulla seemed to be priced up in
the market (best price $21) as though they are expected to make a
significant move up the ladder from their pretty dismal 2007 effort. I’m
not so sure. Bird and Gallen are quality, and a full year from Brett
Kearney will help, but the jury is well and truly out on whether the
presence of Brett Kimmorley still benefits this team, and if he fails in
the first month of football, I can see their being a significant shake
up out Shire way. They may win some of the multitude of close matches
that they lost last year and climb slightly but anything better than mid
table mediocrity would surprise me. Prediction:
Bottom half.
St George Illawarra Dragons
NO SEASON PLAY
The Dragons should improve on what
they showed last year, given a slightly better run with injuries.
Gasnier played less than half a season in ’07 and Dean Young missed the
whole lot, so their return will help coach Brown. They have a fair bit
of class, some worker type first graders and a production line of junior
talent. Realistically, they should never miss the finals, so if they
miss again this year, no matter what excuses there may be, I can’t see
the patience of the Dragon army allowing the coach or the board to rest
easy. Prediction: 7th - 11th.
Penrith Panthers
TO WIN WOODEN SPOON
1 at 13.00
-1
Craig Gower was the heart and soul
of this club (even given some minor off field indiscretions), and for
some reason the ‘experts’ have the Panthers becoming a better side
without him. I’m not so sure. Civoniceva is a great player, but I can’t
believe how much they paid for him. He’s a front rower, how many games
is he going to win you. Maybe he’ll follow Steve Price’s lead in
Auckland, maybe not. Peter Wallace is also a big loss, and you can’t
tell me that the relationship between the head coach and the senior
players would be all rosy given the number of those senior players that
were pretty much given the ‘boot’ last season only to force the club to
honour their 2008 contracts. The Panthers produce quality juniors every
year, and the arrival of Jennings and Sammut last year is case in point.
They will need continued improvement from them and possibly the arrival
of a couple more for them to make a significant climb in 2008.
Prediction: Bottom 4.
Canterbury Bulldogs
TO MAKE TOP EIGHT
2 at 2.50
-2
For the past 5 seasons the Bulldogs
have been the most over-rated side in the competition. Now, with the
departure of Mason, and to a lesser extent O’Meley and Sherwin, and some
drawn out off field controversy, the ‘Dogs are all of a sudden at risk
of becoming ‘under-rated’. Michael Sullivan will prove to be a good buy,
and apart from Mason, I don’t think that they lost anyone that they
really wanted to keep. Sonny Bill Williams has more influence on the
result of football games than any other forward in the NRL, and
‘experts’ have seemingly forgotten his presence with the departure of
Mason. I’ll be more than happy backing these guys when their backs are
against the wall, and in 2008 I’m predicting that we’ll see a more
‘traditional’ style of Bulldogs football.
Prediction: 5th – 10th.
South Sydney Rabbitohs
NO SEASON PLAY
The Bunnies go into another season
with ‘renewed’ optimism, with some high profile recruits, and a wave of
public support. To be honest though, there are more reasons in 2008 that
they can fulfill their promise than ever before, and I expect them to
contend for the 8, but not much higher than that.
Prediction: 7th – 11th.
Wests Tigers
NO SEASON PLAY
The Tigers chances again rest on the
dodgy shoulders of Benji Marshall, but you can now add the dodgy knees
of Matthew Head to this problematic equation. Robbie Farah is a player
of the highest quality and even if the Tigers have to cope without the
services of Marshall again, they will still finish mid table, but to get
back to ‘contender’ status, they will need everyone on deck and firing,
meaning they are far too risky a proposition to back.
Prediction 7th – 12th.
Newcastle Knights
TO WIN WOODEN SPOON
1 at 7.00
-1
The Knights still give me the
impression that they are still far from a happy camp, and that very few
players are comfortable with the Brian Smith way of life. I think that
the Knights have questionable depth, and if they start poorly I wouldn’t
be surprised to see captain Buderus ‘jump ship’ mid season. Should be
bottom half for sure, and a definite Spoon contender for mine.
Prediction: Bottom 4.
Gold Coast Titans
TO MAKE TOP EIGHT
1.5 at 3.60
-1.5
Last year, many were talking up the Titans
as finals chances. They performed above my expectations and just fell
short of that lofty goal. Now in 2008, they have added some extra
quality in Ashley Harrison, significantly more depth in the front row,
and Scott Prince has proven himself to be one of the best ‘club’
footballers in the NRL. Throw in terrific home support, and a new home
ground, and I can only see these guys going in one direction, Up.
Prediction: 5th – 10th.
Canberra Raiders
TO MAKE TOP EIGHT
1 at 5.00
+4
The Raiders again deserve to be
Wooden Spoon favourites, but I don’t think they are any chance to ‘win’
it. Canberra have a very big home ground advantage, and the Raiders will
win enough games at home to see them clear of last. They have a group of
young players equal or better than any club in the league, and they all
have a year of playing first grade together under their belts. Most of
the attacking focus will be on Todd Carney, while defensively they
should be well served by their sizeable but hard working forward pack,
led by the tireless Alan Tongue. They may not win many away from home
but they won’t need to steer clear of last, and contend for the eight.
Having Carney re-sign with the Raiders prior to the season start would
also be a massive plus. If he doesn’t and team morale is affected, this
suggested wager may be over early. Prediction:
7th – 12th.
-1
+4
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