with OnThePunt's resident Union guru
Updated 10:11 AM AEST, Friday 30 May
SUPER 14 FINAL
Crusaders -8.0 vs Waratahs
2 at 1.91
Push
At the end of this long Super 14 season we
finally have two very worthy teams set to battle it out in what should
be a very good match-up. Of the two sides, leading into this match, the
Crusaders were the more impressive last weekend in downing the
Hurricanes in Christchurch and setting up what could be a fairytale
finish for Robbie Deans and Rueben Thorne. The Waratahs also impressed
with their work at the breakdown and the pressure they placed on the
defense, which allowed the Sharks limited attacking opportunities. I do
feel however the Sharks allowed the Waratahs to dominate to the extent
they did by playing just plain stupid rugby and not appearing to have a
plan-B on attack. Injuries to both sides are limited with just David
Lyons missing for the Waratahs, and Corey Flynn for the Crusaders, with
both injuries canceling out any advantage to either side. This match
will be dominated by scraps at the breakdown for any hint of a loose
ball, and I expect the Crusaders to have their hands full in this area,
with Phil Waugh playing the best rugby of his career, and Ritchie McCaw
will have his toughest test of the season in this area. It is in the
backline where the Crusaders will feel they have the advantage, with Dan
Carter leading his experienced outside backs and creating opportunities
the Waratahs have not found themselves having to defend against in their
recent matches. With emotions running high the Crusaders offer too much
across the park, and after some very even early exchanges, should stamp
their absolute class and experience on the game, and run out the
victors, covering the negative point start in the process. Pick – 2
units on Crusaders -8.5 or better point start.
SUPER 14 SEMI FINALS
Crusaders -6.5 vs Hurricanes
2 at 1.92
+1.84
The Crusaders shocking loss to the
Highlanders last weekend has made this match a very difficult one for
punters, as they were expected to snap out of their end of season
lethargy in style, but instead left many wondering about this sides
ability to win another title. Whether that loss will be enough to wake
the sleeping giant it is hard to know, but one thing is for sure – it
will have done them no harm, as adversity is much more often than not
what sparks the true quality players into action. The Hurricanes record
in Christchurch does not make pretty reading at all, so often they have
taken teams down South full of experience and brimming with confidence
only to be comprehensively shut out of the match, and this weekend is
going to be no different. The Hurricanes lack of experience at First and
Second Five-Eighth is going to cost them, they will be under pressure
all match from the likes of Ritchie McCaw and Keiran Reid, as well as
having to contend with the offensive mastery of Dan Carter, who will
rise to the big stage, as he so often has in the past. It should be a
great match, but I am confident the Crusaders will wear down the
Hurricanes, and slowly stretch out the lead after some brutal opening
encounters. Emotions within the Crusaders will be running very high, as
they will be doing everything possible to send off Robbie Deans and
Reuben Thorne in a home final win next week, so watch out Hurricanes.
Pick – 2 units on Crusaders -6.5 point start.
Sharks to beat Waratahs
1 at 2.75
-1
The Waratahs are finally back at home
after their success on the road secured them a golden opportunity to
progress to next weeks final, with the Sydney Football Stadium proving
to be a very difficult ground for visiting teams to win at. If the
Waratahs think they’ve already one foot in the door for the finals, they
certainly have another ting coming, as this Sharks side have been
hitting their straps leading up to this match, and will be a much
tougher proposition than the side that went down 25-10 nearly a month
ago in Sydney. Man for man there is not a lot between the sides, both
are fielding large, mobile forward packs who have dominated around the
set-play in 2008, and both have dynamic backlines that have impressed
both offensively and defensively. One player that has concerned me in
the last few matches had been Kurtley Beale, and how he handles the
immense pressure placed on his relatively inexperienced shoulders could
well be the winning or losing for the Tahs, in what will be a very even
and hard fought encounter. The Sharks will have learnt a lot from their
indifferent tour to Australasia earlier in the season, and seem to have
come out a better side for it. This should be a very close match, but
unfortunately for the home fans I think the Sharks will have a slightly
better ‘big match’ temperate and come away with the win. Pick – 1 unit
on Sharks head to head.
SUPER 14 ROUND 14
Blues to bt Hurricanes
2 at 1.83
+1.66
This should be a great match with two
sides that have similar styles, and both with their own motivations to
get the win, the Hurricanes for a home semi-final, and the Blues to make
the semis - which would be a great feat after having looked dead and
buried three weeks earlier. The Hurricanes have not impressed over the
last fortnight, as whilst they've won, the lack of structure they've had
to their play is going to leave them vulnerable to sides who are able to
expose this, and the Blues certainly have the team, and the momentum, to
make this trip to Eden Park and unpleasant one for them. The Blues have
named an unchanged side, and at home, knowing they've one more game to
win to complete the full Houdini Act and make the semi's, should have to
much for the Canes and win this one; they were impressive in beating the
Highlanders last weekend, and another bonus point win is on the table.
Pick - 2 units on Blues head to head.
Western Force vs Brumbies
NO PLAY
Short and sweet for this match - hold onto
your cash! Both these sides have their own motivations for this one, the
Force have the edge with the home advantage, and slightly more
experience to their line-up, but this game could really go either way,
and it's not worth risking any hard earned cash on it. Pick - No Play.
Crusaders -18.5 vs Highlanders
2 at 1.85
-2
The toughest proposition of the Super 14
awaits the Highlanders in this match, with the Crusaders looking to get
back the special touch they seemed to have been lacking of late, and
there's every chance the return of Daniel Carter to the side will spark
this. The Crusaders have named their strongest side in a number of weeks
for this match, and with the Highlanders having looked like they'd
mentally wound down for the season last week, in losing to the Blues,
this match could be very ugly for them. The Crusaders are going to win
this match, and anything less than a convincing bonus point performance
from them will be a real surprise, as they will be demanding more of
themselves than we've seen of late. With the Semis looming the Crusaders
will be hoping to send a message to the team they're to play next
weekend, so I expect a big scoreline, with the negative point start on
offer to be exceeded. Pick - 2 units on Crusaders -18.5 point start
Reds vs Waratahs
NO PLAY
This is a tough match for the Waratahs to
have just back from the Republic, with the Reds having looked very
impressive at home last week in narrowly losing to the Crusaders, and
with this set to be the last match in Reds colours for six players,
emotions will be running high for the home side. The Tahs know that
anything short of a win will likely spell the end of their season, and
will be ruing the lost opportunity last week against the Stormers, let
down by poor handling, and a bad game from Kurtley Beale, who will
looking to return to the high standards he has set throughout the
season. This is a danger match for Punters, and I recommend sitting back
and watching, without a wager, as while I expect the Tahs to win, it
could easily go the other way. Pick - No Play
Lions vs Stormers
NO PLAY
No edge either way with this one, the
Stormers are expected to win, and are short price with the Bookies, but
the Lions showed last week they're capable of the upset. The Stormers
have all the motivation for this match (but then again so did the Chiefs
last week), and I expect them to win, but it's not worth backing them
with the negative point start. Pick - No Play
Cheetahs vs Bulls
NO PLAY
Again, this match is not one for Punters
to cash in on. The Bulls have looked great at home in clocking up two
wins from their last two matches, yet whether they can continue with the
level of enthusiasm and skill on the road is another story. Both these
sides will be happy that this is the last, of what has been a
forgettable 2008 season for both. Pick - No Play
Chiefs to bt Sharks
1 at 3.50
-1
Chiefs +8.5 vs Sharks
2 at 1.92
-2
The Chiefs have had a fortnight to forget,
with their 2008 campaign now effectively dead and buried after two
losses, with last weeks match against the Lions being particularly hard
for fans to swallow. The Sharks have the motivation of securing a
possible home semi final with the win, but I like the point start on
offer to the Chiefs, as even with a few injuries, they've still got a
very good side on paper, and they too will be motivated by ending the
season in more memorable style. Short and sweet - I like the Chiefs with
the point start. Pick - 2 units on Chiefs +8.5 point start and 1 units
on Chiefs head to head
2008 RECORD
WEEK
RESULT
STAKES
ROI
SUPER 14 FINAL
0.00
2
0%
SUPER 14 SEMI FINALS
+0.84
3
28%
SUPER 14 ROUND 14
-3.34
7
-48%
SUPER 14 ROUND 13
-0.86
11
-8%
SUPER 14 ROUND 12
+7.67
7
110%
SUPER 14 ROUND 11
+0.79
9
9%
SUPER 14 ROUND 10
+4.74
7
68%
SUPER 14 ROUND 9
-6.00
8
-75%
SUPER 14 ROUND 8
+4.16
4
104%
SUPER 14 ROUND 7
+10.16
10.5
97%
TOTAL
+18.16 units
68.5
27%
RECORD
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to view our guru's full season history.
+1.84
-1
RECORD
