with OnThePunt's resident Union guru
Updated 8:11 PM AEST, Thursday 20 October
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RUGBY WORLD CUP 2011
Australia -2.5 v Wales
4 at 2.00
+4
You always wonder just how motivated each
side will be going into these 3rd/4th RWC play-off matches, having both
had their RWC dreams shattered in losing the previous week. Wales are
without their suspended captain and openside flanker Warburton which
will prove to be crucial as Pocock is going to be unstoppable in his
technique/speed to the breakdowns and will again be a match winner for
them as he frees up quick ball for their dangerous back line who I
expect will have a licence to attack at any opportunity which will spell
trouble for the backpedalling Welsh defence. Of both of the losses last
week it's the Welsh that will have been the most deflated as they came
as close to winning a match as is possible, without actually winning it,
whereas the Australians were outplayed from the opening whistle and
accepted their loss and moved on quickly, focusing on this match. I
expect Cooper to bounce back strongly here and with the pressure off the
Aussie back line somewhat they'll look to throw the ball around which
suits the likes of Beale, O'Connor and Ioane out wide and the Welsh will
simply be run off their feet. Aussies to win easily. Pick - 4 units on
Australia -2.5 point start
Wales -1.5 v France
3 at 1.91
-3
Not many people would have predicted before
the start of the RWC that Wales would make the semi-finals, let alone be
starting as favourites, and given how well they've played and the
determination they've shown it would be a brave man to back against them
making the final. Wales coach Warren Gatland has done a superb job with
this side - their set pieces are absolutely rock solid, they
aggressively compete in every forwards confrontation, lead by their
inspirational captain Warburton, and they have a very well-drilled back
line with numerous game breakers in the likes of Roberts, Davies and
North all in top form and will cause the French back line many
headaches. Whilst it's never easy to predict just what French side will
turn up on the day I'm still happy to back the more consistent Welsh
side to come away with the win through much of the same style and energy
they've brought to each game. Pick - 3 units on Wales -1.5 point start
New Zealand -6.5 v Australia
4 at 1.95
+3.8
The Australians have had an air of
confidence about them this week, not seen in many years heading into a
clash with New Zealand, and it could well come back to bite them as New
Zealand on the other hand have kept a low profile and piled into their
work with the type of grim determination that 24 years of World Cup
frustration brings. Apart from their win over South Africa last week the
Aussies have had a rather uninspired RWC, losing to Ireland and
conceding three tries to Russia, and I expect all their weaknesses to be
well and truly exposed here as the All Blacks pile pressure on their
scrum, look to move the ball close to the rucks and mauls and once the
forward momentum is there then send it wide to their very talented back
line. The Aussies won the last match between these sides but a telling
period of that match for me was the 20 minutes after halftime when the
AB's completely shut the Aussies out of the match with a changed game
plan similar to that just described - that 20 minutes of play will be
the blueprint for this match and the Aussies will get worn down and
succumb to the endless tide of pressure. The Aussies have not won on
Eden Park for 25 years and that's not about to change here as the AB's
will win, and win comfortably. Pick - 4 units on New Zealand -8.5 or
better point start
Australia to bt South Africa
4 at 1.83
+3.32
Australia welcome back several key players
in Ioane, McCabe and Beale to their back line for this huge match,
whilst the South Africans on the other hand have had opposite fortunes
with experienced lock Bakkies Botha joining Frans Steyn on the injured
list. Both these sides have varying strengths to their game with the
Wallabies back line shaping up to be a real threat, whilst the
Springboks on the other hand have their set pieces where they're most
dangerous and will look to exploit the Wallabies in this area. The
battle of the loose ball should be intriguing but I'm backing the world
class Pocock for the Wallabies to be the difference there as he is
arguably the worlds most inform openside flanker and will cause many a
headache for the Boks. The Bookies have not been able to split these
sides but on what is forecast to be dry conditions in Wellington I
believe the Wallabies will win through their edge in the breakdowns with
Pocock leading the way and with the flare they have in their back line
they'll wear the Boks defence down. Pick - 4 units on Australia to win
Argentina +27.5 v NZ
3 at 1.95
+2.85
All the talk leading up to this match has
been around the expected All Blacks dominance but the Pumas should not
be written off completely here as they boast a forward pack that will
hold their own in the set pieces and whilst their back line has not set
the world on fire to date they're still very capable with the very
experienced Contepomi leading the way. The jury is still out on just how
much of a hole Carters absence will leave in the All Blacks back line
and the Pumas will pile the pressure on Slade who will be full of nerves
as the whole of New Zealand analysis his every move and he'll be faced
with a very flat defencive line from the Pumas who will limit the time
and space he has with the ball. Whilst there's no doubt the All Blacks
will win I'm not expecting a completely clinical performance from them
the very generous line on offer to the Pumas is appealing. Pick - 3
units on Argentina +27.5 point start
Wales to beat Ireland
4 at 2.22
+4.88
The Welsh have been the pick of the Five
Nations sides for me thus far in the RWC and I'm backing them to come
away with the win here against an Irish side who have also looked good
but lack that x-factor in the back line that the Welsh now seem to have
in the likes of North and Davies, to name a couple. Welsh captain and
openside flanker Sam Warburton has been one of the players of the RWC to
date and he will also be a big factor in Wales coming away with the win
as he dominates the breakdown with his speed to the tackled ball and
once he creates the turnover the Welsh back line are certainly good
enough to score from anywhere on the park. The Welsh have also impressed
with their defence, conceding just 34 points in their four pool matches,
and the Irish side could well struggle to accumulate points in anything
other that nominals of three. Get on Wales for the win! Pick - 4 units
on Wales to win
England -4.5 v France
3 at 1.92
-3
The French side have quite possibly been
the most disappointing of all the top nations thus far in the RWC and I
believe their loss to Tonga last week was the final nail in their coffin
as they appear to be lacking any sort of cohesion or enthusiasm and that
well renown French flare seems to have also vanished. England have not
exactly set the world on fire but they'll look to play to their
strengths here and battle away in the set pieces, playing for field
position and will accumulate points in that clinical style we've come to
expect in RWC's from them - mainly through the boot of Wilkinson. Short
and sweet, the French are on the canvas and England will suffocate them
into submission here for the final knockout blow of their 2011 campaign
- the line from the bookies is not big enough to the French and
Wilkinson will cover it with some early penalties and they won't look
back from there. Pick - 3 units on England -4.5 point start
Canada +59.5 v New Zealand
3 at 1.91
-3
The All Blacks have suffered a double
injury blow for this match with their two most influential players - Dan
Carter and Ritchie McCaw, both out and whilst they are still boasting a
team that's choc-full of world class players I still expect the loss of
those two players to unsettle them somewhat. The All Blacks are
bolstered with the return of Kieran Reid from injury to play his first
match of the RWC and I expect him to take some time get get back into
full swing. This is the Canadians final match of the RWC, to date
they've performed admirably and will be well and truly committed here to
making this as close as possible, and they've shown in their previous
three matches that they are sound in the set pieces, clinical on attack
and defensively solid. The weather conditions for this match are not
expected to be great with rain forecast which will make conhesion for
both sides on attack more difficult. The line on offer to the Canadians
is huge and the Canadians will be good enough to get within it,
especially in wet conditions. Pick - 3 units on Canada +58.5 or better
point start
Italy +12.5 v Ireland
3 at 1.91
-3
The Italians will be quietly confident here
of getting the upset against an Irish side they came very close to
beating in this years Six Nations. Given the strength of the Italian
forward pack, and how well their halfback of Fabio Semenzato and fly
half Luciano Orquera are playing, if the Italians can get some
ascendency up front then they'll have every chance of coming away with
the victory as it won't be a try-fest here and penalty kicks will rule
the day. The start to the Italians is appealing as they'll throw
everything into this as they make a final bid to secure a quarter final
spot - get on them with the start. Pick - 3 units on Italy +12.5 point
start
Australia -70.5 v Russia
3 at 2.01
-3
The Australians will be looking for one
final big blow-out win here going into the quarter finals and despite
the fact they've been hit hard through injuries I'm still liking them to
cover the massive line on offer as they'll use this match as an
opportunity to fine-tune all aspects of their game. Short and sweet
here, the Russians will struggle to get even one try and at best may
manage a token penalty goal, whilst the Australians will capitalise on
the dominance they'll have in the set pieces as well as their superior
fitness, talent and structure which will result in a huge try tally in
what could possibly be the biggest winning margin in the RWC to date.
Get on the Wallabies to cover the line! Pick - 3 units on Australia
-71.5 or better point start
Tonga +26.5 v France
4 at 1.87
+3.48
The Tongan side have received
unprecendented support throughout the RWC and I expect them to again
have the crowd behind them here as they look to end their tournament on
a high. The Tongans have a side that could definitely hurt the French
who will not respond to well to the hard-hitting defence, powerful
running offence and solid set-pieces which I expect will all culminate
in a closer than expected match. The French will have their eyes on the
quarter finals and I'm not convinced they'll be 100% motivated for this
clash, whilst the Tongans on the other hand will be. The large point
start to the Tongans here is well worth taking! Pick - 4 units on Tonga
+26.5 point start
Scotland +10.5 v England
3 at 1.96
+2.88
The Scots proud history of making the
quarter finals in every world cup is seriously under threat here as they
require nothing short of a bonus point win against their Five Nations
foe who has traditionally had the wood over them. England were seriosly
tested against Argentina, narrowly scraping by with the win, and have
since had two very easy wins over minnows Georgia and Romania so could
be slightly underdone for this clash. Scotland on the other hand are
fresh off their epic encounter against Argentina where they did
themselves proud, only to come up just short but they showed enough in
that match for me to rate them a good chance of the upset here. There's
not much between the two backlines here but the English side do have the
edge in the forwards and will look to play a structured game built
around their superior ability in the set pieces. There won't be a whole
lot of tries in this match, and with the result in the balance the
scoreline won't blow out either way which makes the line on offer to the
Scots appealing as they'll defend like their lives depend on it, but
could well get stung in the penalty count. Get on the Scots to get
within the line. Pick - 3 units on Scotland +10.5 point start
Samoa +17.5 v South Africa
3 at 2.00
+3
Barring a huge upset this will be the
Samoans last game of the RWC and they've named a very experienced side
to give themselves the best shot at getting the win. The Samoans have
been impressive in many areas of their play to date, their set pieces,
particularly the scrum, have been very strong and defensively they've
been sound having conceded just 36 points in their three matches, whilst
accumulating 86 points of their own. From where we currently stand in
this tournament it's certainly the South Africans that have looked the
most likely, behind New Zealand, of winning the RWC and whilst they're
assured of a quarter final spot they'll certainly not be taking this
match lightly, but with that said I'm not expecting this to be a huge
winning margin as the line on offer to them would suggest. I expect the
two sides to have relative parity in the set pieces and for Samoa to
again defend with their customary aggression as they look to unsettle
the South African backline and they do have the right mix of structure
and flare in their game to make this very interesting.....get on them
with the generous point start! Pick – 3 units on Samoa +17.5 point start
Romania +9.5 v Georgia
4 at 1.95
-4
This is not a match I'd planned on doing a
pick for but once I saw the point start on offer to Romania I couldn't
resist as I anticipate this being a very tight battle, fought mainly
between the two very large forward packs, with very little between them.
Both coaches have named their best available sides, with Romania naming
14 of the starting XV that ran Scotland so close in the opening round in
a match dominated by a strong Romanian scrum and solid defence, similar
to how they'll look to play this match out. The rivalry between these
two sides is fierce, with Georgia having had the better of the two sides
of late winning 4 of their last 5 encounters, but this match is on a
whole new playing field and I expect Romania to be at their best as they
try and mark their captain Marius Tincu's 50th test cap in style. There
won't be much at all in this and the point start from the bookies to
Romania is too large. Pick - 4 units on Romania +8.5 or better point
start
Japan to bt Canada
3 at 3.27
+3.4
This is the last match for Japan
in the 2011 RWC and both have named their best available teams to take
the field. The Japanese side, having heavily rotated their starting team
for their previous matches, have made just two changes here from the
side that lost to Tonga as they search for the elusive cohesion that's
been missing in their error ridden performances to date. The Japanese
went into this tournament with a degree of confidence following their
Pacific Nations Cup victory and are absolutely determined to at least
come away with a victory here against a Canadian side they registered
two big victories over in their most recent matches, in 2009. Neither
side will have any great ascendency in the set-pieces and they're both
fairly evenly matched in the backlines, one of the key performers for
Japan will be James Arlidge and his decision making when it comes to
kicking or running the ball, an area he could have been smarter in
previous matches, and I'm confident he'll lift his game and control play
nicely in a clinical effort. The bookies have favoured the Canadians
here but I'm really liking the Japan side to take it to them and play
the match at a ferocious pace and come away with the win at very good
value. Pick - 3 units on Japan to win
Fiji +10.5 v Samoa
3 at 1.87
-3
This battle between two of the pacific
island sides should be highlighted by plenty of running rugby and I'm
expecting plenty of tries from both sides as they embrace their natural
instincts and spread the ball at every opportunity. The Samoan side
could well have the ascendancy in the set pieces but I expect a very
even match-up in open play as both these sides have players that are
more than capable of carving up the opposition defensive line. The
bookies have given the Fijians a decent point start and I'm happy to
back them with it as I'm expecting a very close match. Pick - 3 units on
Fiji +9.5 point start
Australia -58.5 v USA
3 at 1.91
+2.73
These two sides have taken opposite
approaches to this match with Australia naming close to their best
available side, whilst USA have rested most of their leading players in
preperation for their next match against Italy four days later. The
Australians will well and truly have their tales up here as they look to
bury the dissapointment of Saturday nights loss to Ireland where they
could not manage to score a try and I expect them to dominate every
single aspect of this match with complete ruthlessness. The Aussies are
going to clock up a huge winning margin here, their is no rain in the
forecast foir Wellington and it will be a night for running rugby -
which is bad news for USA. Pick - 3 units on Australia -60.5 or better
point start
Tonga -5.5 v Japan
3 at 1.92
+2.76
Neither of these sides have registered a
win thus far in the RWC and both will be eyeing this up as a must win
match in order to secure the vital thrid spot in the pool and
automatically qualify for the next RWC. Both coaches have wrung the
changes with both sides bringing back their top XV, with the exception
of injuries, and it will be a match highlighted by contrasting styles -
the power and bulk of the Tongans versus the lighter and more agile
Japanese. There won't be much between the two sides in the battle of the
set pieces but I do see Tonga as having the edge in the backs as they'll
look to use their power and make clean breaks in the Japanese defence
with runners in support or by forcing Japan to commit more than one
player to the tackle which will create room and overlaps out wide. Get
on Tonga to cover the narrow line. Pick - 3 units on Tonga -5.5 point
start
Canada +30.5 v France
3 at 2.01
+3.03
I'm surprised at the start the bookies have
given Canada here given their very good win over Tonga during the week
where they showed off a forward pack full of muscle, a rock solid
defence and a well drilled offence. The French are traditionally very
hard to read, especially going into matches such as this, and I'm sure
they'll be better here than they were against Japan where they looked
laborious on attack, and were in the end flattered by the scoreline. The
Canadians showed in their win over Tonga they're very capable in the set
pieces and I don't expect France to have quite the dominance in that
area that most are predicting, which should at least ensure some damage
control on the scoreboard. Get on the Canadians to cover the overly
large point start. Pick - 3 units on Canada +30.5 point start
Romania +21.5 v Argentina
3 at 1.91
-3
This will be a fierce battle up front as
both these sides have very similar sized forward packs and are both
strongest in that department, Romania could well struggle once the
Argentinean side starts to spread the ball out wide, however if the
Argentineans match against England is anything to go by we can expect a
10-man game which should play into the Romanians hands. There's not a
lot to say for this one, I expect a game dominated with set pieces and
defence which will ensure the score goes up in lots of three and the
point start to the Romanians is hard to go past. Pick – 3 units on
Romania +19.5 or better point start
South Africa -21.0 v Fiji
3 at 1.91
+2.73
The South Africans have received a heap of
criticism following their narrow victory over Wales, most of which I
believe was unfounded as they came up against a very skilled and
spirited Welsh side, it does mean though that they'll not be short of
motivation/attitude here which could well spell trouble for the Fijians.
The South Africans receive a huge boost here with the return of Botha,
both in terms of muscle and leadership, and they'll look to play a
controlled style and deny the Fijians ball whilst using their formidable
forward pack to rumble up field and over the line. The bookies have not
given the Fijians a big enough start here and I recommend getting on the
Springboks to cover the start. Pick – 3 units on South Africa -21.5 or
better point start
USA -7.5 v Russia
3 at 1.91
-3
This is the Russians first match of the
2011 RWC and they go into it off the back of four straight losses, and
with the way in which USA leapt into their first match against Ireland
where they looked to have greatly improved their defence, an area of
their game that was previously susceptible, it’s likely to be five after
this match. The USA’s captain Todd Clever had a blinder against the
Irish and will once again lead a highly impressive forward pack here
into battle, whilst the backs also showed in that match how dangerous
they are, with plenty of strength and speed. I expect the Russian’s to
compete in the set pieces but will be found wanting in open play as the
USA side dominate the rucks and mauls and provide plenty of front foot
ball to their impressive backline. Get on USA to cover the narrow start.
Pick – 3 units on USA -7.5 point start
Tonga -5.5 v Canada
4 at 1.92
-4
Tonga showed in their second half effort
against the All Blacks just how formidable they can be once they’d
settled into the game, losing the second half by just 12 points to 7 and
needless to say they’ll be looking to kick on here against the much
lesser opposition of Canada where they left off Friday night. The
Tongans have a large number of players in their squad who play in the
Super XV and are very familiar with the conditions in New Zealand so
they’ll have a big advantage over Canada in that department, they’ve
also been receiving unprecedented support from all around New Zealand
which I’m sure will lift the side even further here. The Canadians will
be physically dominated by this huge Tongan pack who will set the
platform for their hard running backs to launch wave after wave of
attack on the Canadian line. The Canadians have had minimal quality
warm-up matches leading into this cup (beating Portugal, Russia and USA)
and this will be a huge step up for them. I’m surprised at the small
point start to the Canadians as this Tongan side should have too much
size, power, speed and skill – get on them to easily cover the point
start. Pick – 4 units on Tonga -7.5 or better point start
USA +33.5 v Ireland
3 at 1.95
+2.85
We’ve seen already from the first round
matches of this cup how the ‘minnows’ appear to have closed the gap
somewhat and with passion, pride and just plain old basic rugby they’ve
been able to limit the damage on the scoreboard and I expect much the
same. The USA do not have a lot of form to follow going into this match,
having played just five 2011 warm-ups, winning just one, but they’ve
always punched above their weight at RWC’s and I’m expecting a spirited
effort here as they make Ireland work for every point. Ireland
themselves have concerns with pre-tournament 2011 form having won just
three of eight tests and it will be a nervous start for them as they’re
not a team associated with running, free-flowing rugby so the point
start to USA in ominous. Get on the USA to make this closer than
expected, the point start is a must! Pick – 3 units on USA +32.5 or
better point start
This is the game of the RWC to date and it
is well and truly anyone’s, especially when you consider the recent
matches played between these sides, where South Africa have won all
three but by no more than five points. There ius not a lot to say about
this clash other than the fact the bookies have the line wrong, it
should be favouring South Africa but it’s currently too large and we’ll
jump on it thanks. The Springboks have not exactly been try-scoring
machines of late and this will follow suit and become a battle of the
boot, hence the winning margin to either side will not be large. Gatland
is a canny coach and will have his side well and truly prepared to
battle the Boks and he could be about to do New Zealand a huge favour!!
Pick – 4 units on Wales +13.5 point start
Tonga +60.5 v New Zealand
3 at 1.91
+2.73
With all the pressure in the world on their
shoulders the All Blacks will be under the microscope here as they kick
off the rugby world cup against a very physical and much improved Tongan
side that have been in good form in 2011, narrowly missing out on
winning the Pacific Nations Cup. The All Blacks have named Sonny-Bill
Williams to start alongside Nonu in the centres, to combat the hard
hitting crash and bang style of the Tongans, and with Dagg named at
fullback, Kahui and Toeava on the wings, it’s a backline that has not
had a lot of playing time together at all and could take some time to
gel. The bookies have given the Tongans a huge point start and whilst
I’ve no doubt the AB’s will win easily the Tongans will make them work
for it as they throw their heart and soul into the challenge. Pick – 3
units on Tonga +60.5 point start
Japan +44.5 v France
4 at 1.91
+3.64
The Japanese have continued to improve
under the coaching of John Kirwin and they go into this tournament off
the back of winning the Pacific Nations Cup which highlights the fact
they are now a much more mentally and physically tougher side than we’ve
seen at previous world cups. You’re never quite sure with the French
side as to what sort of attitude they’ll take the field with, especially
in matches where they’re expected to win easily as is the case here, and
I’ll be surprised if the winning margin here is as large as the bookies
are suggesting. The French will dominate the set pieces but the Japanese
are an intelligent side and Kirwin will have painstakingly prepared for
this opening match, ensuring his side do not embarrass themselves. Get
on the Japanese with the very generous point start. Pick – 4 units on
Japan +44.5 point start
What a fantastic six weeks we have ahead of
us, New Zealand has left no stone unturned in ensuring this will be a
truly memorable World Cup and every visiting rugby fan will be in for
the time of their lives. I’ll be bringing you my picks and opinions on
games throughout the tournament and will do my best to make it a
profitable one for you. All the best and enjoy.
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FUTURES
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2012 US MASTERS
Mickelson, Phil 6.00
Mcilroy, Rory 7.00
Woods, Tiger 8.50
Westwood, Lee 21.00
Donald, Luke 21.00
Watney, Nick 26.00
Kaymer, Martin 34.00
Johnson, Dustin 34.00
Scott, Adam 34.00
Schwartzel, C 34.00
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Mahan, Hunter 36.00
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