with OnThePunt's resident Union guru
Updated 7:45 PM AEST, Thursday 7 July
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SUPER RUGBY - FINAL
Crusaders -3.5 v Reds
4 at 1.92
-4
The Crusaders win over the Stormers
last week must go down as one of the most courageous efforts of any side
in Super Rugby history when you take into consideration all the
adversity they've faced this season and it's obvious they are on an
emotional journey that I'm convinced will end in glory this week. Last
time these two sides met the Crusaders suffered some bad calls from Stu
Dickenson which led to them narrowly losing, that result will still be
fresh in the memories of the players and will just be one of many
motivating factors for them here. Credit to the Reds for comprehensively
disposing of the Blues last week but this week is a much tougher
challenge and the Crusaders will execute a game plan around shutting
down Quade Cooper and limiting the Reds time and space, something the
Blues failed to do, and will lay the platform in the set pieces where
they've been outstanding all season. It's fitting that this game will
determine whether we end the season in profit or loss and what better
side to place one's faith in in such a situation than the Crusaders -
get on this champion side to cover the narrow line. Thanks to all the
OTP Union followers this season, see you again in 2012. Pick - 4 units
on Crusaders -4.5 or better point start (BEST
BET)
SUPER RUGBY - WEEK TWO FINALS
Blues +5.5 v Reds
2 at 1.95
-2
The Blues will be stoked they've drawn the Reds in Queensland for this
semi-final, as opposed to having to face the Stormers in Cape Town, and
will be confident of coming away with the upset win against a side
that's not too dissimilar in style to themselves. The break the Reds had
last week won't have done them any favours as they have not been playing
their best footy over the past month or so and another game would have
given them a chance to address any issues, instead they're carrying them
into this match against a Blues side that's worked hard in winning their
past two matches. The Reds great season to date has come off the back of
the enterprising play of their star fly half Quade Cooper so it does not
take a brain surgeon to work out that he will be heavily targeted by the
Blues who will make him work hard on defence by sending runners his way
from set pieces and broken play, and will also limit the time and space
he has with the ball by rushing up on defence. The Blues backline will
look to reduce their error rate from last weeks win over the Waratahs
and once they start stringing some phases together will be very hard to
contain. The Blues have a good amount of experience throughout their
squad and won't be overawed by the occasion, the same can't be said of
the Reds, and I like the visiting Kiwi side to at the very least get
within the point start on offer from the Bookies. Pick – 2 units on
Blues +4.5 or better point start
Stormers to beat Crusaders
3 at 2.15
-3
The Crusaders machine marched on last week and destroyed a hapless
Sharks side but they face a much tougher task here, playing in South
Africa against a very well-drilled Stormers side. If this match was to
be played in New Zealand then I'd be backing the Crusaders all the way
but with the travel they've done during the week, not to mention the
disruptions they've faced all season, one can't help but feel that it
will all catch up on them here against a well-rested Stormers side who
will front up defensively and shut down the Crusaders backline through
their characteristically strong defence. The Crusaders do welcome back
McCaw for this match but there's an injury cloud hanging over Reid whose
loss would have a huge impact on the side as he's been outstanding all
season. The gaps in the opposition defensive lines that the likes of
Williams and Fruan have been finding all season won't exist this week
and as they look to create chances then the error rate will mount and
the Stormers will capitalise. The Stormers will certainly not look to
win this playing attractive razzle-dazzle rugby but will keep it tight
and grind their way into Crusader territory and look to camp there.
There won't be many tries in this match but the Stormers will convert
territory and possession into points as the match wears on against what
will be a tiring Crusaders side. Pick – 3 units on Stormers to win
(BEST BET)
SUPER RUGBY - WEEK ONE FINALS
Blues -8.5 v Waratahs
4 at 1.85
+3.4
The Blues have both the luxury of
home ground advantage and of playing a Waratahs side that’s struck down
with injuries to some key players – most notably their first choice
halfback/flyhalf combo of Burgess and Barnes, they are however going
into this fresh off a very comprehensive win over the Brumbies and won’t
be short on confidence. The Blues also go into this off the back of a
good win over the Highlanders and will be buoyed by the confidence their
backline played with which should again be a feature this week as nearly
every one of them is in the spotlight for a possible All Blacks spot.
This will be an arm-wrestle up front as both packs are pretty even but
the more experienced combo of Mattiewson and Brett for the Blues could
well prove the difference as they lead the impressive Blues backline on
numerous attacking raids that the Tahs will struggle to contain as the
game wears on. The Bookies have given the Tahs a decent start but the
Blues will be switched on here and cover it. Pick – 4 units on Blues
-8.5 point start (BEST BET)
Crusaders -13.5 v Sharks
3 at 1.94
+2.82
The Sharks have had to travel all the way
from the Republic following their very hard fought win over the Bulls, a
match that will have taken a lot out of the tank of their players and
along with the travel burden I’m not expecting this side to be at 100%
here, which will spell trouble for them. The Crusaders have had the
luxury of playing their last few games under lights in cold, damp,
slippery conditions that will be very similar to the conditions for this
match and they’ll once again control the match from the set piece, will
play for territory and defend like their lives depend on it. One can’t
help but feel the Sharks played their ‘final’ last week and will find
the going very very tough here against a near full strength Crusaders
side. The bookies have given the visiting South African side a big point
start but the Crusaders will cover it as the points mount up as fatigue
takes it toll. Pick – 3 units on Crusaders -13.5 point start
2011 RECORD
WEEK
RESULT
STAKES
ROI
BEST BET
FINALS WEEK THREE
-4.00
4
-100%
FINALS WEEK TWO
-5.00
5
-100%
FINALS WEEK ONE
+6.22
7
89%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 18
-4.80
9
-53%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 17
-5.27
11
-48%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 16
+4.44
11
40%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 15
-6.72
14
-48%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 14
+5.15
12
43%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 13
+4.88
11
44%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 12
-2.32
10
-23%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 11
+8.88
10
89%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 10
-4.27
10
-43%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 9
-3.27
9
-36%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 8
-10.00
10
-100%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 7
-6.20
10
-62%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 6
+3.43
8
43%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 5
+2.54
7
36%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 4
+8.05
9
89%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 3
+3.36
10
34%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 2
+2.94
8
37%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 1
-2.61
9
-29%
TOTAL
-4.57 units
194
-2%
57%
PREVIOUS
RECORD
WEEK
RESULT
STAKES
ROI
BEST BET
2010
+24.83 units
109
23%
60%
2009
+14.02 units
114
13%
71%
2008
+18.16 units
68.5
27%
N/A
RECORD
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FUTURES
GOLF
2012 US MASTERS
Mickelson, Phil 6.00
Mcilroy, Rory 7.00
Woods, Tiger 8.50
Westwood, Lee 21.00
Donald, Luke 21.00
Watney, Nick 26.00
Kaymer, Martin 34.00
Johnson, Dustin 34.00
Scott, Adam 34.00
Schwartzel, C 34.00
Day, Jason 34.00
Mahan, Hunter 36.00
Garcia, Sergio 36.00
Mcdowell, Graeme 36.00
Watson, Bubba 36.00
Kim, Anthony 36.00
Ogilvy, Geoff 36.00
Fowler, Rickie 36.00
Harrington, P 41.00
Stricker, Steve 41.00
Poulter, Ian 41.00
Cabrera, Angel 41.00
Kuchar, Matt 41.00
Simpson, Webb 41.00
-4
+3.4
RECORD
