SOCCER PREVIEWS/PLAYS
......... with OTP's football guru
Updated 11:01 PM AEST, Friday 3 October
ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP - SATURDAY 4 OCTOBER
Aston Villa to bt Chelsea
0.5 at 8.00
-0.5
Chelsea have been hampered lately with the
loss of Deco, who had announced himself in fine fashion, and Essien who is a
long-term casualty. The team as a whole hasn't really pushed on in the way
that their first game (v Portsmouth) suggested that they might. The promise
of free-flowing Brazilian style football has been replaced by the more
efficient approach which we came to expect under the Mourinho and Grant
eras, though you do sense there are more goals in this side under the
guidance of Scolari. They suffered a further blow in midweek, not with the
0-0 draw at Cluj which was a hard earned point on the night, but the loss of
Drogba who had only just returned. I am not at all convinced about Nicolas
Anelka this season and anybody who has watched a Chelsea match this season
will have also seen him miss chance after chance. He is clearly short on
confidence and I just don't think he is playing the lone striker at all
role. In addition to this, if he isn't scoring goals there is very little
else he is contributing to the team. Of course Chelsea still possess hoards
of talent all over the pitch (and bench) but they are missing key players
and if Aston Villa can exploit that then we could see Chelsea's long
standing home dominance broken (85 games unbeaten). If Villa go on the
offensive then they have the players to cause Chelsea problems, with Young,
Agbonlahor and Carew the main threats. Steve Sidwell has also returned to
full training, though whether he will feature in this clash with his former
employers is unclear at the moment. All in all we are relying on a few 'ifs'
and 'buts' in this one but at the prices on offer I believe we have to give
them a sniff at Stamford Bridge the way that they are playing these days
under Martin O'Neill. Pick - 0.5 units on Aston Villa at 8.
Wigan to bt Middlesbrough
2 at 2.10
-2
Wigan have become a very decent side under the
guidance of Steve Bruce. They have lured in some relatively unknown players
and turned them into in-demand stars such as Scharner, Valencia, Palacios
and more recently Amr Zaki, who is sitting atop of the goalscoring charts.
Whilst maybe being a little fragile at the back still with the error-prone
Titus Bramble not inspiring much confidence, they have added the combatitive
Cattermole to midfield, who will be fired up for this clash against the club
who he left in the summer. Overall with the likes of Welsh international,
Koumas, and the ever running Heskey up top, they have come on leaps and
bounds since being the apparent relegation fodder which they were very
recently. Middlesbrough also made a few signings in the off-season with the
likes of Hoyte, Shawky and Digard joining their ranks. However, whereas
Wigan seem to go about games with a purpose at the moment, Boro seem to be
struggling to find the right combination still and have lost 3 on the bounce
including a 1-0 home loss to new boys West Brom. For me Southgate still has
it all to prove after taking over Boro as his first managerial role and
hasn't really got much more out of the team than the hapless Steve McClaren
had done. Steve Bruce on the other hand spent a fair amount of time in the
lower leagues, gaining experience, before plying his trade in the
Premiership where he has become a big success and touted as a potential
successor to Alex Ferguson at Manchester United. Wigan have beaten Man City
at home recently as well as dominated Chelsea despite losing the match, and
with the promise being shown on the pitch being backed up by Bruce on the
sidelines, I fancy that they will notch up another win here. Pick - 2 Units
on Wigan at 2.10
Man City to bt Liverpool (DNB)
3 at 2.40
-3
City are still riding the money wave with
potential signings in January already on the agenda. The sky appears to be
the limit and they have already made their mark with the deadline day
transfer of Robinho. Liverpool in many ways are the opposite, with their
transfer policy one of the major issues in the past which has caused
friction between Rafa Benitez and the clubs owners. Whilst Man City were
putting in bids, as if the football world was one big game of Championship
Manager, Liverpool were still in their quest to raise money to sign Gareth
Barry, which never materialised due to lack of transfer funds. Whilst this
is all interesting stuff, it is clearly about the players who are playing at
the current time whom will determine this match. I believe Man City have the
edge here with the attacking flair all over the pitch which they possess and
the fact that Eastlands has the potential to become a fortress, confirmed by
their demolition of Portsmouth last time out. Wright Phillips, Robinho,
Elano and Jo are all showing their quality at the moment, and with Kompany
playing the holding role and the under-rated Stephen Ireland pulling strings
just behind the front two, they already look a massively talented attacking
team without the big names being touted as possible signings. Liverpool
possess class but once again I am not convinced they are playing that great,
and the likes of Kuyt on the wing may not be good enough in this one and I
can see their full backs being exploited by City's natural width. If City's
defence can keep Torres quiet, which is no mean feat of course, then I can
see them notching up a win here. Pick - 3 units on Man City at 2.4 in the
draw no bet market.
ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP - SATURDAY 4 OCTOBER
Reading -1 vs Burnley
3 at 2.15
+3.45
The Reading train is gathering speed with an
impressive start to the season and an emphatic win midweek at Championship
rivals, Wolves. There isn't much to see about this one other than I expect
it to continue marching on. Burnley have put together a good run of form
lately and sit only one place behind Reading in the table. They also had a
good win midweek with a comeback to edge out Watford 3-2. I would suggest
that they have a had a good run of games against lower opposition this
season and Reading will be a completely different obstacle. With 16 goals in
4 home matches there is little need to once again illustrate their attacking
prowess and the fact that they have felt comfortable sending Leroy Lita out
on loan is a clear example of the depth they possess. Simply put, I see
these two teams going opposite directions over the rest of the season.
Burnley are likely to revert back to mid-table obscurity, whereas for my
money Reading will win the league outright and in doing so should be winning
games like this fairly comfortably. Pick - 3 units on Reading -1 at 2.15
ENGLISH LEAGUE ONE - SATURDAY 4 OCTOBER
Walsall to bt Hereford
1.5 at 2.50
-1.5
Hereford gained promotion last season from
League 2 but used a lot of loanees in order to do so. This season they have
therefore lost a lot of these players and are clearly struggling, sitting
bottom of the table. Walsall went fairly well last season, eventually
finishing in mid table but with a creditable 9 wins on the road. They have
come flying out the blocks this season and even managed an away win at
Brighton with 9 men for over 45 minutes. That is an issue in this game as
those 2 players will be suspended but that was the case last weekend when
they notched up a 2-1 victory over fellow high-flyers, Carlisle. They will
still have 2 players with premiership experience amongst their ranks in
ex-Arsenal midfielder Stephen Hughes and ex-Bolton forward Michael Ricketts.
Hereford have signed ex-Bolton defender N'Gotty to steady the defence and he
was apparently instrumental in a rear-guard action last weekend in the 1-0
defeat to Leeds. However at home the onus will be on the home side to attack
and Walsall should still have enough talent to undo them. Pick -1.5 units on
Walsall at 2.50.
Scunthorpe to bt Leyton Orient
1.5 at 2.38
-1.5
Scunthorpe have kept hold of a fair few
players from their Championship campaign in the likes of Hayes and have
started very well in League 1 with 6 wins from 8 games. They have been
scoring goals whilst also maintaining a strong defence, which cannot be said
for Leyton Orient. They finished 16th last campaign and haven't started to
hot this time around, suffering a 3-0 hammering at Southend last weekend.
They have now conceded 3 goals in their last 3 games which isn't the ideal
scenario coming into this one against a Scunthorpe team with title
aspirations. All in all I reckon Scunthorpe get the job done in this one and
the odds look like value to me. Pick - 1.5 units on Scunthorpe at 2.38.
Carlisle to bt Tranmere
2 at 1.99
-2
Carlisle come into this one on the back of 3
defeats though 2 of those were away from home against decent opposition (Scunthorpe/Walsall)
and the one home defeat was against title-favourites Leeds. They have in
fact fallen out of the top 6 for the first time in a year, which is when
current boss John Ward took over, which is some achievement. Brunton Park
has been a fortress for them in recent times and Tranmere, who aren't the
best of travellers, should provide a moral boosting win for the home side.
They have no real injury worries and I have confidence in their ability to
bounce back to winning ways. Pick - 2 units on Carlisle at 1.99.
ENGLISH LEAGUE TWO - SATURDAY 4 OCTOBER
Rochdale to bt Dag and Red
2 at 2.10
-2
Rochdale had a good season last time around
with a 5th place finish and expectations are high again this season. They
have dealt with this pretty well so far and after a slowish start have
recorded 2 wins in a row. They head back home in this one to take on
Dagenham and Redbridge who are also travelling nicely and sit in 6th place.
This position came after a flying start whereas they have only won 1 game
from the last 4. For me is it again the case of 2 teams likely to go in
different directions; Rochdale will be looking to get on a roll now and
maintain the winning streak to power them towards the leagues summit.
Dagenham will of course be aiming to do the same but whether they have the
quality to keep up their form is unclear and the wheels have begun to look a
little wobbly in recent weeks. I had Rochdale odds on in this one so 2.10 is
a decent price about them to grab a home win this weekend. Pick - 2 units on
Rochdale at 2.10.
ENGLISH CONFERENCE - SATURDAY 4 OCTOBER
Kidderminster -1 vs Barrow
3 at 2.05
-3
Kidderminster are again going strongly in the
conference and had a good away victory last weekend to complement their
great home form thus far. Barrow have been woeful of late, losing a home 3-0
last time out and have conceded 12 goals in their last 4 games now. Kiddy
have won 7 out of their last 9 and with form being such an important element
at this level of football I have to side with the home team to once again
get the job done. Pick - 3 Units on Kidderminster -1 at 2.05.
Mansfield -1 vs Woking
2 at 2.05
-2
Similarly to above, both teams have started in
different fashions this season. Mansfield suffered relegation last season
and are looking for a first season bounce-back whilst Woking didn't set the
world alight last season and dont appear to be lighting any matches this
season with 5 defeats from 6 away from home. Mansfield lost a fair amount of
players over the summer, though after a relegation maybe that isn't such a
bad thing. Once again the form points to the home side, and looking at their
teams on paper, there is little too sway my opinion here. Pick - 2 units on
Mansfield -1 at 2.05.
ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP - TUESDAY 30
SEPTEMBER
Cardiff -0.5 vs Coventry
2 at 2.10
+2.2
Cardiff are sitting in mid-table at the moment
after 8 games and will be looking to improve on their showings at Ninian
park, where they were a tough proposition last season. There have been
changes in the team over the summer, with the likes of Loovens and Ramsey
moving on which have weakened the team somewhat. They do still possess a
classy midfield with Whittingham, Parry and the in-demand Ledley providing
some creativity, and McCormack/Bothroyd should be a decent strikeforce once
they have bedded in. Coventry are showing signs of improvement moving on
from the last campaign and with Freddie Eastwood up front will always pose a
threat. I prefer the home team to get going in this one, after by all
accounts they put Birmingham under some pressure last match, and with
McPhail returning from suspension they should have just about enough to get
the job done. Pick 2 Units on Cardiff at 2.10.
Sheffield United to bt Doncaster
1.5 at 2.60
+2.4
Sheffield United pack a lot of power attacking
wise this season, with the likes of Billy Sharp, James Beattie and Darius
Henderson amongst their ranks. They also possess some experience campaigners
in Gary Speed and Gary Naysmith, whom may prove instrumental this season. In
addition to this, they are set to sign last season's FA cup hero, Brian
Howard, on loan from Barnsley. They suffered a big loss in the Carling Cup
recently, but they bounced back well at the weekend with a win over Watford,
and they should have too much quality for new boys Doncaster. Rovers do
possess some talent in ex-newcastle forward, Coppinger alongside Darren
Byfield, but looking all over the park Sheff Utd must fancy their chances in
this one. Pick 1.5 Units on Sheffield United at 2.60.
Preston -0.75 vs Swansea
2 at 2.27
-2
Preston suffered a loss at the weekend, also
going down to 10 men in the process which didn't help their cause. However,
they return to Deepdale for this one where they are going very nicely thus
far, to face Swansea. The Welsh side have only scored 1 on their travels so
far, and got a lesson at Reading where they suffered a 4-0 defeat. Preston
are sitting in 4th place and will be looking to bounce back after 2 defeats
in a row. They have a workmanlike approach and should have enough about them
to get past the Championship newboys and keep their promotion push on track.
Pick 2 units on Reading -0.75 at 2.27.
Shef. Weds. -0.75 vs Not. Forest
2 at 2.24
+1.24
Sheffield Wednesday are still loitering around
in the Championship with their glory days a distant memory. All the talk of
a takeover approach has amounted to nothing thus far and they are left to
get on with the job in hand, which would appear to again be consolidation in
the Championship. They have started decently enough, aside from a mauling at
Reading, and remain unbeaten at Hillsbrough, which they will be looking to
maintain after struggling at home a little in recent times. Whilst not being
in the possession of many star names, they do possess a handy first XI when
everybody is fit. Jimmy Smith, on loan from Chelsea, should make an impact
in this division after returning to fitness, and the likes of Tudgay,
Johnson and Esajas can be real handfuls on their day. Forest are struggling
after their promotion and prop up the division at the moment. Moussi appears
to be a good signing for them and is a powerful unit in midfield, but a lot
of their squad is probably just shy of being Championship standard. Most
worryingly for them is that they seem to be really struggling to create
chances, especially away from home. Sheffield Wednesday are never the most
consistent of teams but after a decent win at Charlton I would expect them
to maintain some momentum in this one. Pick 2 Units on Sheffield Wednesday
-0.75 at 2.24
ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP - SATURDAY 27 SEPTEMBER
Aston Villa -1 vs Sunderland
2 at 2.15
Void
Villa have started of brightly which is no
surprise with the players they possess and the team which they are building
under Martin O'Neill. With the pace of Young and Agbonlahor complemented by
a sturdy defence, the strong Carew up top and the talents of Gareth Barry in
the middle, they seem to have struck on a winning formula. They were well
worthy of their win at Tottenham last match and perhaps should have taken
the points against Liverpool at Villa park recently. Sunderland have again
invested a fair sum over the summer on the likes of Anton Ferdinand and
Djbril Cisse but there are again question marks over the depth of their
squad and maybe the tactical nous of their manager. I certainly don't fancy
his chances in a battle of wits with O'Neill and expect Villa to keep on
marching in this one. Pick 2 units on Villa -1 at 2.15.
Man Utd -1.75 vs Bolton
4 at 1.99
+1.98
Manchester United haven't started this season
quite how they would have liked, sitting in 15th place and 7 points off the
pace albeit with a game in hand to come. The absence of Cristiano Ronaldo
was perhaps the biggest factor in this sluggish start, on top of a tough
opening month with trips to Portsmouth, Liverpool and Chelsea. It does
appear however that the pieces are beginning to come together for the red
devils now with Ronaldo back to complement the strong attacking force of
Rooney, Tevez and Berbatov. If there was a team who you would pick to play
in order to kick-start your season there is a fair chance that Bolton would
be the choice. Devoid of any attacking flair, leaking goals all over the
place and surely destined for the drop, Bolton are likely to go to
Manchester and 'park the bus'. The problem with this is that when you
possess the caliber of players, which they do, resistance is unlikely to
last particularly long and when it is broken it is more likely to be a bus
heading towards their defence, as Arsenal showed to full effect last
weekend. I fully expect Man Utd to fire a warning shot to the rest of the
league this weekend, back at Old Trafford where they won 17 from 19 last
season, banging in 47 goals along the way. Its a big handicap to overcome
but there is little doubt that if they click into gear they have the
potential to stick a few past Bolton here. Pick 4 units on Man Utd -1.75 at
1.99.
Arsenal -1.75 vs Hull
3 at 1.94
-3
Another big handicap in this one, but again
one which I feel probably still isnt enough. Arsenal have hit top form of
late, sticking 4 past Blackburn, 3 past Bolton and then a lazy 6 past
Sheffield United midweek, with a second string XI. There is little doubt
that on their day they play the best football in the league bar none and at
the moment they are having a few of these days. A common criticism is that
they want to score the perfect goal and can be frustrating in that regard
though clearly at the moment that isn't an issue with goals coming from all
fronts. They have a few injuries still with Rosicky, Diaby and Eduardo in
the treatment room but Samir Nasri is expected to be back for this one. Hull
have started decently enough with a good win at Newcastle recently, but this
is like nothing they have seen before. As hard as you work, and as much
commitment as you show, at the end of the day a lack of quality will show in
games like this. They were unable to put Everton away last match despite
being 2-0 up and it is hard to see them putting up any resistance in this
one. Arsenal are scoring goals for fun at the moment, possess pace and
creativity all over the park and there should be clear daylight between the
two teams. With a 2 goal win ensuring a profit, I can comfortably back the
gunners to keep up their recent good form. Pick 3 Units on Arsenal -1.75 at
1.943.
Everton to bt Liverpool
1 at 3.75
-1
The first installment of the Merseyside derby
is here and promises to be a feisty encounter. Liverpool only managed a
feeble 0-0 draw with Stoke last game, undoing much of their good work in
beating Manchester United the week before. They have been grinding results
out so far without really playing particularly well and it appears that when
Gerrard and Torres aren't on song, there is a lack of other match-winners on
the field. Everton haven't started too well with 2 home defeats but they do
have a few decent players back in action now. Cahill has returned which is a
massive plus, and they possess genuine quality in the likes of Arteta and
Yakubu. The signings of Fellaini and Saha should also have a positive
influence on the team. They haven't beaten Liverpool at Goodison park since
2004 but if Liverpool don't up their level a little here, they definitely
have a chance. Pick 1 unit on Everton at 3.75.
ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP - SATURDAY 27
SEPTEMBER
Reading -0.75 vs Swansea
2 at 2.05
+2.1
Reading are looking to bounce straight back
into the Premiership after their relegation last season. They have started
off fairly well and put Sheffield Wednesday to the sword in their last home
match 6-0. They have managed to retain most of their squad from last season
and the likes of Hunt, Harper, Kebe and Doyle illustrate the calibre of
players whom they possess at this level. Swansea on the other hand are
looking to consolidate their place in the Championship following their
promotion last season at the hands of the astute Roberto Martinez. They
possess a decent squad and the fact that they managed to hold onto the
in-demand Ferrie Bodde was a big coup for them. Overall however there is a
decent class difference here, Reading possess quality right throughout the
first XI and through the bench, which is a massive bonus at this level. With
3 wins at home this season, and a hatful of goals to boot, I dont see
Reading slipping up in this one. Pick 2 Units on Reading -0.75 at 2.04.
CARLING CUP - TUESDAY 23 SEPTEMBER
Sunderland -1.5 to bt Northampton
2 at 2.14
-2
It is always a little tricky when it comes to
pricing up cup competitions, with teams from different leagues squaring off
and the question marks over which teams will field strong sides. I don't
think that is much of a concern with teams like Sunderland whereby this is
probably their best hope of claiming a European place for next season. That
is backed up by their last game in this competition where the likes of Diouf,
Cisse and Malbranque all took to the field when they overcame Nottingham
Forest. The gulf in class between these two sides is clear, and you would
have to expect Sunderland to win this one at a canter to book their place in
the next round. Pick - 2 units on Sunderland -1.5 at 2.14
CONFERENCE - TUESDAY 23 SEPTEMBER
Salisbury to bt Woking
1.5 at 2.40
-1.5
The English Conference is a good league to be
looking at from a betting perspective. The markets obviously aren't as
strong at this level in comparison the the major leagues and as such there
is certainly value to be found. On that note I think that Salisbury City are
a little over the odds in this match-up with Woking, Neither team set the
league alight last season, with bottom half finishes, but this season both
have started very differently. Woking are languishing in 22nd place with a
distinct lack of firepower (8 goals in 10 games), which was their main
problem last season. Salisbury are sitting pretty in 3rd place and yet to
lose away from home. In a league where good form counts for a lot, I can
happily put faith in Salisbury to pick up the points in this one. Pick - 1.5
units on Salisbury at 2.4.
Cambridge DNB vs Oxford
2 at 2.00
-2
Cambridge United came within a whisker of
achieving promotion from the English conference last season, finishing 2nd
in the table and suffering heartbreak in the play-off final. This time
around they have come flying out of the traps and sit healthily inside the
top 6. Oxford United were one of the pre-season favourites for the title
this season on the back of a summer transfer frenzy but haven't justified
that billing to date. In fact rumours suggest that all is not well with the
club in financial turmoil and a rift apparently developing between the
manager and players. Cambridge were a very solid side away from home last
season, and an unbeaten start on the road this time around indicates that
they are carrying on where the left off. Oxford may have bought in some
decent players in the pre-season but forming them into a team is never an
easy proposition and I am happy to take the more settled Cambridge to
continue their decent start in this one. Pick - 2 units on Cambridge (DNB)
at 2.00.
Kidderminster -0.5 vs York
3 at 2.11
+3.33
Only one position separated these two teams in
the last campaign, though in terms of goal difference Kidderminster were 20
ahead. This has carried on this campaign with them racking up 18 goals in 10
games, though 14 conceded is a concern. Kidderminster have generally been
very strong at home and are proving to be so again this season with 4 wins
from their opening 5 matches. York haven't started too badly themselves
either but I fancy Kidderminster to be challenging at the top come the end
of the season, and with the goals flowing I expect them to keep up their
decent home form in this one. Pick - 3 units on Kidderminster at 2.11.
ENGLAND PREMIERSHIP - WEEKEND 20-21 SEPTEMBER
Arsenal -1 vs Bolton
3 at 2.21
+3.63
Generally there is a belief that clubs don't
tend to perform too well coming in off the back of midweek European matches.
Saying that, unless Arsenal decided to swing back via Amsterdams red light
district, there is little to suggest that this wont be a walk in the park
for them. They have had problems at the past at Bolton, and it is well known
that they don't respond well to the physical approach which the smaller
teams tend to use against them. However, after a disappointing away loss at
Fulham, they put on a show at Blackburn last time out, with a 0-4 victory
and with the return of Fabregas supplented with the ongoing rise of Theo
Walcott they should have far too much class for the men in white. Gary
Megson isn't the most popular boss in the league, with his uncompromising
style of play, and he appears to have fallen into the trap of paying
massively inflated fees over the summer on the likes of Elmander and Muamba
which is unlikely to endear him further. All in all, there is a massive gulf
in class between the two sides, and after their loss at Fulham earlier in
the season, Wenger will be determined not to slip up in these type of
matches. Bolton were completely outplayed last week at Fulham and this one
is likely to be one-way traffic once again. Pick - 3 units on Arsenal (-1)
at 2.21.
ENGLAND LEAGUE 1 - WEEKEND 20-21 SEPTEMBER
Carlisle (Draw no Bet) vs Leeds
2 at 1.97
-2
In terms of home advantage through the English
leagues, there are few teams who come close to matching that of Carlisle's
at Brunton Park. With three wins from three home games this season, on the
back of a 17-3-3 record last season, they clearly have built something of a
fortress in Cumbria. They finished 4th in League one last season, one ahead
of Leeds, and fans will be optimistic of a similar effort this time around.
They lost a few promising players over the summer, but still possess some
quality players at this level, particularly in ex-Middlesbrough striker
Danny Graham, who has just picked up the league one player of the month
award on the back of 5 goals in 4 games over August. There is little doubt
that Leeds will be challenging for promotion at the end of the season, with
the large fan base and calibre of players whom they possess. However there
is also little doubt that they are being priced up as much based on
reputation, as form. I have Carlisle as a solid home favourite in this one,
so to be offered 1.98 in the draw no bet market is a sound investment. Pick
- 2 units on Carlisle (DNB) at 1.98.
ENGLAND LEAGUE 2 - WEEKEND 20-21 SEPTEMBER
Darlington -0.75 vs Accrington
2 at 1.88
+1.76
Darlington finished 6th in League 2 last
season with a solid home record, and are expected to have a decent crack at
the play-offs again this time around. They have started well enough but the
biggest plus for them is their two strikers this campaign. They have signed
Liam Hatch and Billy Clarke on loan from higher leagues. Clarke in
particular, is a very promising young player and has featured in the Ipswich
Town first team on numerous occasions. He has already showed his pedigree at
this level in a 6-0 thumping of Macclesfield, where he grabbed a handy 4
goals. Accrington tend to be strugglers, and with little resources to their
name, it is hard to see that changing in this season despite a decent start.
They drew only 3 games from 46 last season which certainly implies they
believe in the "all or nothing" philosophy, and I don't see them getting
anything from this one. Pick - 2 units on Darlington (-0.75) at 1.877.
-0.5
+3.45
PREMIER
LEAGUE 09
