Thursday 9th December

Maria Julia Mantilla Garcia of Peru is the new Miss World following last Saturday's staging of the event in Sanya, China.

Miss Peru was on the eighth line of betting at $23 when the market closed on Thursday, and while there were several bets recorded for her, the largest being €100 at $17. she was a very good result for us.

It was the first time that the new format of 'viewer voting' had been used instead of a judging panel. and Miss Peru defeated the Dominican Republic and the USA for the coveted award. Miss USA was easily our worst result, and had been backed from an opening $15 into $9, then all the way down to $4.50 after winning the 'beach girl' part of the competition. The opening field of 112 was culled to 15 for the final, with Brisbane's Sarah Davis making the final field, but unable to follow in the footsteps of Jennifer Hawkins who won the Miss Universe title early in the year.

Thursday 2nd December

Miss World will be decided by the public for the first time this year, and as a result of the public becoming involved in that process, there has been a host of shows televised globally that are related to this years title.

That has greatly assisted the betting, and there has been money for every single competitor. Miss USA is the ruling favourite at $6 after winning the beach girl part of the event, and is easily our worst result. Others who have caught the eye of punters have been Miss India ($15), Miss Ukraine ($26), Miss Belarus at the same odds, and also Miss Wales ($26). Our own entrant, Sarah Davies from Brisbane, has attracted a mountain of support from the Sunshine State, and is now into $16 after opening at $21. Sarah will be trying to emulate the feat of Belinda Green who won the title way back in 1972, and is still a household name in Australia today.

As this is a public vote by SMS and telephone, betting will close early on Thursday, two days prior to the final.

Thursday 25th November

Casey Donovan is the newly crowned Australian Idol, and Casey's win provided Centrebet with one of our biggest ever results on a reality show. Casey started the outsider at $4, and in fact was the outsider for most of the series from the time that the twelve semi finalists were known.

All up, close to $200,000 was wagered on Idol, and the final closing prices were $1.20 for Anthony, and $4 for Casey. There had been a rally early in the week for Casey, who got into $2.70 after NSW Premier Bob Carr threw his support behind her. There was a real 'state of origin' feel about the whole event as the push for Anthony from Victoria was quite substantial, especially after last year's winner, Guy Sebastian, tipped Anthony as the winner. We took three separate bets of $5000 for Anthony at $1.28, as well as several bets around the $1000 mark, but there was equally as much support for Casey, although the amounts were much smaller. One thing that we did notice on this show that was a little different from others was that there were a high number of bets from females, particularly on Casey in the final days, so perhaps we are beginning to see a shift away from the male domination of these types of shows?

Thursday 18th November

ENTERTAINMENT

Even NSW Premier Bob Carr has got behind Casey Donavon in her quest to win Australian Idol, and this week we have seen a huge move come for the 16 year old to win the crown on Sunday night at the Sydney Opera House.

It was hard to gauge anything from last Sunday's performances as both Casey and Anthony were very good, and while we have been saying that Casey faces an uphill battle due to the fact that she is a female, there are a couple of things in her favour. The first is that she comes from the largest State, and the second is that the demographic of the voters appears to be changing now that the media have started to really focus on the show.

Last week we took two separate bets of $10,000 for Anthony, one at $1.22, the second at $1.20, but this week he has blown out to $1.40 after the barrage of support for Casey. The $4 for Casey didn't last long on Monday, and with close to 80% of the best this week coming for the youngster, her price has been slashed to $2.70. From what we are seeing, Casey Donavon is on track to join Reggie Bird as the only other female winner of an Australian 'reality' show.

Money suggest Bec Cartwight might also join the same elite club after another breath taking performance on Dancing with the Stars. The 'Home and Away' starlet has been favourite for several weeks, and was into $1.80 prior to Tuesday night's show.

We are also covering Miss World, which will be decided in China on Dec 4. The format has changed this year, with the famous judging panel out of a job as the organizers have opted for a World Idol style of voting. That makes it a legitimate raffle, but there are heats, and Miss USA won the first of those last week to make it through to the final 20. She is now into clear favourite at $8, with Miss Australia, Sarah Davies from Brisbane, well in commission at $12. For those that think we couldn't hold both the Miss World and Miss Universe crowns after Jennifer Hawkins won that award six months ago, think again! Way back in 1972, Australia won both beauty pageants in the same year, with Belinda Green winning Miss World, and Kerry Anne Wells winning Miss Universe.

Thursday 11th November

Another shock in Australian Idol at the weekend when Courtney Murphy was shown the door.

Courtney had been popular with punters all week, but obviously wasn't as popular with the voters. We took nearly $6000 worth of bets for Courtney to win the Idol title at $4, as well as two $5000 bets for Anthony at $1.33. The only one that punters didn't want was Casey, who blew out to $10, but she now finds herself in the final two, but still as the outsider.

One thing we did do last week that we hadn't tried before was bet on who would go. Casey was the top elect at $1.30, and in amongst a series of bets for her, we took one bet of $6000. Courtney had some backing at $3.25, with Anthony the outsider at $21.

Now we are down to the final two, and with two weeks before the big event, opinions differ vastly on who will win. For all the reasons mentioned before, and also that he is our worst result, we opened up Anthony at $1.16 with Casey at $4.50. In the first 48 hours of betting, nearly $5000 has been placed on Casey which has seen her price cut to $3.75, but by the same token we have taken bets of $2000 and $1500 for Anthony at $1.22, so he looks likely to enter the final show as a warm favourite.

The other 'reality' show currently being shown in Australia, Dancing with the Stars, has certainly gone up a notch or two as far as betting goes. There are only three couples left, and the voting from Tuesday night would suggest that there is little between all three as far as popularity goes. Dancing? Well that's a different matter. There is little doubt that Pauline Hanson is the worst of the trio left, but she has proven immensely popular with the voting public, and punters, and is now $2.50 after being $34 following week one. All our 'form analysts' in the office have nominated Bec Cartwight as a 'certainty', but she only narrowly missed the bullet on Tuesday night, so we have wound her price out to $2 after being $1.90 last week. The big mover for the week has been Justin Melvey, who was originally our favourite at $2.75 before touching $7 last week. Justin finished on top in the voting this week, and was also given the judges nod, so he is back into $3.50.

Thursday 28th October

ELECTIONS

Hot on the heels of a $1.9m turnover on the Australian election, the American Presidential election betting broke through the $500,000 barrier last week.

The USA election is progressing along similar lines to the Aussie election in so much that both candidates are very easy to lay at the moment. It is only a matter of extending each price a little, and straight away there is money there. As it stands at the moment, George Bush is $1.45, with John Kerry at $2.50, and some of the bigger bets over the past week include $30 000 ($1.47) and $15 000 ($1.43) for Bush, both from Australian clients, and $USD 8000 ($2.50) and $USD 7500 ($2.70) for John Kerry.

While most elections we cover are fairly easy to predict, this one is nearly impossible because of the money being bet by Australians, and for that matter people from other countries outside of the USA. The three biggest bets taken so far, two of $50,000 and another of $30,000, have all been for George Bush, but all three have been placed by Aussie punters. Because Centrebet is relatively new to USA punters, we aren't going to get a big enough cross section of the community to form an opinion one way or the other, but at least we know one thing, Australian political punters think that George Bush will be returned!

ENTERTAINMENT

I know that the Australian Idol judges sometimes appear as though they are coming from 'left field', however they appeared right on the money about the performance of Casey Donavon on Sunday night, and more importantly the punters agree. We posted Casey at $5 after Monday nights vote, and with our first wager of $200, it is an indication that there will be more money to follow. Not surprisingly on Sundays performance that Chanel was voted off, which now leaves two males, and two females, although we are not as adamant after Casey's touchdown that the two males will fight it out.

Last week, the solid support for Chanel ($11into $7) continued right up until showtime on Sunday, and she was backed to win close to $40,000. Unfortunately for her, she copped a bit of a 'bagging' for her performance, and her outfit, on Sunday night, and as a result of that, she is out of the competition. Courtney has grown in popularity as the series has progressed, but last weekend's performance was very ordinary, and the judges also gave him a pasting. Courtney has drifted out to $5 now, and although we took nearly $3500 for him last week, punters are now extremely wary as it does look increasingly likely that Anthony Callea ($1.45) will be the new Idol. Although we gave $67 for Anthony during the first week of betting, and he has been favourite for 80% of the competition, he is only a small loser in our book, and we are happy to keep it that way!

Thursday 21st October

ELECTIONS

The US election is a chance of rivaling the Australian Election as far as betting goes as we have already taken close to $500,000 in bets, and with the two main candidates each attracting bets, it is making for a terrific betting event.

There are several different markets, as well as opinions, on which way this will go, but from what we are seeing, the betting public thinks George Bush will be re-elected. We took a $50,000 bet for Bush at $1.65 the day after the Australian election was decided (from a Sydney punter), and we have taken three $10,000 bets at different prices all the way down to the current quote of $1.47. Even at that price there is some serious money coming in, including another $50,000 wager (again from Sydney) early this week. The $2.50 now available for John Kerry is layable, with the biggest bet so far this week being 4000 pounds from an English client, followed by a bet of $CAN 6000 placed by a new sign up from Vancouver.

To date, we have taken bets from in excess of 30 countries, so the whole world is watching, and betting, on who will lead the USA after November 2.

ENTERTAINMENT

Not much has happened with the order of favourtism on Australian Idol following the demise of Marty Worrall on Monday night.

Anthony Callea is still the favourite at $1.70, ahead of Courtney Murphy at $3. Both have had close to $5000 placed on them at around those odds since Ricky Lee's shock exit last week, and although the women left in the competition are under extreme pressure from the voting public, we have seen money for all three females left in.

This week, Chanel Cole opened at $11 and was backed to win just over $20,000, which saw her price crash in to $7.Casey Donavon was backed to win $12,000 last week, and has again been supported this week at $15, while Hayley Jensen, the outsider of the field at $21, has plenty of support from smaller punters, but we feel that the format of next Sunday's show may work against her.

We are also covering 'Dancing with the Stars', the new show on Channel Seven hosted by Daryl Somers. There has been genuine interest! in all competitors with about $3000 wagered so far, but in the male dominated arena of sports betting, it isn't hard to work out who punters have put their money on. Bec Cartwright ($4) and 'The Pleasure Machine' Gabrielle Richens ($7) were the ones carrying the most bets, but in keeping with tradition, the voting public voted out a good looking female (Richens), so Bec Cartwright had better beware! She is currently the favourite at $2.85, with nearly $2000 placed on her this week.

Thursday 14th October

ELECTIONS

John Howard has been elected to another term as Australian Prime Minister, and once again, the Centrebet 'punters poll' proved to be the best barometer when looking for the winner.

The news polls had the big race neck and neck right up until Saturday morning, but a look at the betting fluctuations suggested that it was all over much earlier than that. The closing prices were $1.10 for the Coalition, and $6 for Labor, and when you consider that exactly one week before it was $1.45 and $2.55, it is easy to see that punters were on the mark more so than the polls.

The major turning point of the campaign took place last Tuesday following the release of Labor's Forest Policy. In the ensuing days, the Liberal Party candidate, Michael Ferguson was backed from an unwanted $3.20 into $1.35. The sitting member, Michelle O'Byrne, blew like the north wind from $1.33 out to $3. That sort of move also took place in most other seats, with Coalition candidates firming in the betting following solid support. That of course meant that Labor were unlikely to pick up marginal seats that they needed to, so they couldn't win. We confidently predicted on Friday that not only would the Coalition win, but that they would increase their majority, and that was a against what all the polls said.

All up, just under $1.9 million was bet on the election, a staggering amount of money. Not wishing to miss an opportunity while the issue is still in the news, we have opened up the market to win the next election. On face value, the $1.33 for the Coalition might seem well over the odds given what happened last Saturday, but there are two things worth noting. The first is that Labor made some tactical errors this time, and will learn from that, and the second is that there must be a strong possibility that Peter Costello will be in charge of the Coalition by then, and that will also affect the betting.

Now we have to deal with the US election, and that is also shaping as a massive betting event. We have already taken over $300,000 worth of bets, and at last count, clients from 27 countries had had a bet. As soon as we paid out the Australian election on Sunday, several Aussie punters reinvested on the American election, led up by a bet of $50,000 at $1.65 for George Bush. Five separate bets of $10,000 have followed, all at different odds down to where we currently sit ($1.47) for Bush to be re-elected, with John Kerry out to $2.50.

For those who are wondering how we went on the Australian election, we managed to stagger out of it all with a very small credit. Mark Latham would have been a sensational result, but maybe next time?

Thursday 7th October

ELECTIONS

With football finals now out of the road, punters have now focused their attention on Saturday's Australian Federal election. There have been a series of changes to the betting since the campaign started six weeks ago, but there is one common denominator, and that is that the Coalition have always been favourites. The best price available was $1.55 on the Sept 4, and the current price of $1.25 is as short as the Coalition have been all year. Labor, on the other hand, got into $2.30 on Sept 4, blew out after that, got back into $2.50 late last week, and are now $3.50. The price moves have been similar to the last election, and it looks as though the Coalition will go in as very warm favourites.

Late last week we reported of the $200,000 bet for the Coalition, but the campaign launch for Labor saw them firm from $3.30 into $2.50 by the weekend. There was an avalanche of support for Labor, but most of the bets were small, with the largest being $6000. We always expected the regular political punters who back the Coalition to bet in the final week, and that is what has transpired. On Monday, we took two bets of $30,000 (one at $1.40, the other at $1.33), as well as two bets of $10,000. Tuesday saw bets of $12,000 and $10,000 come at $1.30, and support has continued, even at the current price. Labor are still attracting support, led up by a $6000 wager on Tuesday at $3.50, but the total is nowhere near what is coming for the other side. On Wednesday, we cracked through the $1million barrier in bets taken on the election so far, and with still two full days to go, betting turnover is going to reach a record amount.

Betting on the marginal seats has revealed some interesting trends. In most, the Labor candidates were the second favourites, and in keeping with the support for Labor to win, most of these candidates were backed in the first five weeks of the campaign. That support has dried up in many cases, and the Libs/Nats whom were originally favourites, are now being backed. The seat of Wentworth continues to be the best of those offered from our point of view, with Malcolm Turnbull back into $1.50 to win, ahead of David Patch ($2.50) and Peter King ($6). Close to $40,000 has been bet on this seat already, and all three have been backed. Eden-Monaro is another topical seat as the winning party of that seat has also been the winning party both at a State and Federal level for over 30 years. Labor's Kel Watt was opening second pick at $3.20, but was backed into $2.20, the biggest bet being $2000 at $2.50. The support for the Coalition as a whole has had an impact on this seat during the week as Watt has been hard to lay, while sitting member Gary Nairn has been backed from $1.50 into $1.40. There was some talk that Joe Hockey (Lib) could be in trouble in the seat of North Sydney, but we can't see that from looking at a few bets this week. After opening at $1.20, Hockey is into $1.07, the last two bets being $5000 and $4000 at $1.10. Similar amounts have been placed on Steve Gibbons (Lab) to win the seat of Bendigo at $1.10, and the same thing has happened with David Cox (Lab) in the South Australian seat of Kingston. The battle for the Tasmanian seat of Bass is enthralling, as sitting member Michelle O'Byrne (Lab) had a $5000 bet placed on her at $1.33, but she has drifted out to $1.50 as a result of constant support for Michael Ferguson, now into $2.20 after touching $3.

The 'Pauline Hanson ' option on whether or not the famous red head will get a seat in the Senate is also creating interest. Nearly $30,000 has been wagered on both options, with the 'no' leading the way at $1.33. A couple of news polls say that Hanson will grab a Senate seat, but we have noticed that two of our regular political punters who normally win have bet that she won’t get in.

Thursday 30th September

ELECTIONS

There is only a little over a week to go before Australians go to the polls to decide who will govern us for the next four years, and the 'event' is still a pretty good betting contest with money for both sides.

Late last week, there was another wave of money for Labor after some news polls had Mark Latham ahead. Labor firmed from $3.30 (the biggest price this year) all the way into $2.70. In that flurry, we took about $50,000 worth of bets, the biggest being $20,000 (from Sydney) at $3. Then on Sunday, Prime Minister John Howard produced some interesting promises targeting low income families, and the betting went his way for two days. The $1.40 was taken with roughly $40,000 worth of bets, so the market was back to where it was two weeks ago, $1.33 for the Coalition, and $3 for Labor.

That all changed on Tuesday however, as we took our biggest bet of the election so far, $200,000 at $1.33 for the Coalition, coming from a NSW based client. That has seen a major move into $1.28, with Labor easing out to $3.30.

As we have said before, unless there is something drastically wrong in a country, it is extremely hard to remove a government, so we are bracing ourselves for our bigger political punters to be very active on the Coalition next week. They tend to sit back and bet late, just making sure that all the cards are on the table. More often than not, the odds are shorter, but the picture is clearer.

The marginal seat betting has been topical around the country, but it is the seat of Wentworth that continues to see the most betting. Malcolm Turnbull's supporters have stepped in this week, taking the $1.80, then the $1.65, with the biggest bet being $4000 at the last price. But there is still money for the ALP's David Patch at $3.50 and Peter King at $4.

Other seats where there has been movement have been Dobell, Eden Monaro, Parramatta and McEwen in Victoria. In Dobell, Ken Ticehurst (Lib) is an easing favourite at $1.50 ahead of David Meehan (Lab) at $2.40 and Paul Unger (Ind) at $6. Meehan has had nearly $4000 placed on him, but a group of Unger's supporters swooped in and took the $201 on offer, backing him all the way down to the current price. In Eden Monaro, Kel Watt, the Labor candidate, has firmed from $3.50 into $2.50, which should put a smile on Mark Latham's face, as this seat has proven to be a good barometer in finding election winners. Parramatta has been a topical seat due to the admissions of infidelity by sitting member Ross Cameron. Cameron is the second pick at $2.10, but has been backed at that price, but five separate bets of $1000 have been placed on the Labor candidate Julie Owens, who is now clear favourite at $1.60. In McEwen, most believe Fran Bailey ($1.25) will get back in, but there has been money for local store owner an Labor candidate Jenny Beales at $3.50, and also for Robert Gordon (Ind), who after opening at $101, has been backed into $11.

At the time of writing, betting on the election had topped $750,000, and with there still being a week to go, it is going to climb to a very high figure.

Thursday 23rd September

ELECTIONS

Money continues to pour in on the upcoming election, both to win it overall, and also on individual seats.

The weekend saw some bigger bets come for the Coalition. They were led up by a $14,000 wager at $1.30 which had followed a $10,000 bet at $1.33. Several $1000 bets also came at the short odds, so the Coalition have settled at $1.28. We continue to see bets coming for Labor (ratio of about 50%) which ties in with what opinion polls are saying, it's just that they aren't significant amounts compared to the bets for Mr. Howard. To date, $500,000 has been wagered on this election, and with still a couple of weeks of campaigning to go, it looks set to break all records.

Pauline Hanson's political career has been resurrected, and we have opened up a market on whether or not she will win a seat in the Senate. We did the same thing last election when she was the leader of the One Nation Party, and punters got it right on that occasion when she missed out. We opened it up this time with $6 that she would win a Senate seat, and that was backed into $3.50. We were treating this market with a lot of caution as it is hard to ascertain her popularity, but at $3.50 there is plenty of money to say she can win. We have taken a bet of $2000 at that quote, but following the Labor Party statement that they will not be giving her any preferences, we saw some smart money, including a bet of $6000, come for the famous redhead to miss out at $1.25.

Six individual seats opened late last week, and another 20 followed on Monday, and there has been money for most of the favourites. The topical seats have been Eden Monaro and Wentworth. Eden Monaro is the seat which is always a good pointer to what happens nationally, and we did install Gary Nairn, the Liberal sitting member, at a short quote of $1.20. Not much action to report there apart from a bet of $1000, but we have taken nearly the same amount for the Labor Party candidate Kel Watt at $3.25. I noticed he did 'tip' himself, saying that he might even take some of that quote (and he is more than welcome to!), but our research has shown that he certainly faces a battle to win the seat as defense is a big issue in the area, as well as a proposed jail at Queanbeyan. In Wentworth, a real war has erupted after Peter King failed to gain Liberal pre-selection. Malcolm Turnbull got the Liberals nod, and with King now in as an independent, the gate is open for Labor to sweep past both. So, we have three legitimate chances for a change, and at the moment, Turnbull is slight favourite at $2 ahead of King at $2.50 with Labor's David Patch at $3.25.

ENTERTAINMENT

Ricky Lee Coulter has emerged as the new favourite at $3.50 to win Australian Idol following last weekend's show. That makes the Gold Coast entrant our fourth different contestant to head the betting, and over the past week it has been Ricky Lee and Anthony Callea (now $4) who have been the best backed. One of Ricky Lee's fans backed her on four occasions last week to win a total of $11,000 at $7 and $5.50, while Anthony was backed to win a similar amount at $5.50.

Perth performer Courtney Murphy has the voice to go all the way, and has joined Callea on the second line of betting at $4.We think that the disco theme of the upcoming show on Sunday may not suit him, but there is little doubt he is gaining popularity. He looks different, and that might matter when it counts. Outside of those three, we haven't seen decent levels of interest in any of the other singers.

Thursday 16th September

ELECTIONS

Two events in the past seven days have seen some hefty movements in the betting on the Australian election. Mark Latham's tax policy release early last week didn't inspire the marketplace at all, but the tragic bombing in Jakarta last Thursday, and the debate on Sunday night, did force some move in the prices.

In the 24 hours after the bombing in Jakarta, close to $70,000 worth of bets saw the price for the Coalition firm from $1.45 into $1.30, with little support for Labor in that period. It was interesting that punters reacted that way because all the criticism levelled at the Howard Govt since the weekend has been about our involvement in Iraq, and how defense has been handled overall. Anyway, that saw Labor drift out to $3.20 before the debate started. Betting was closed while it was on and although the whole thing was a very tame affair, there had to be a winner, and it was Mark Latham. Kim Beazley won the debate back in 2001, and the very next day we took about $20,000 for the then Labor leader to win that election, so we had a pretty good formline to follow. Unfortunately for us, that was about the last time we took any serious money for Beazley, and off course he went on to lose easily. This time, we opened Labor at $3, and in the first few hours took about $4000 in bets for them. As we are always on the lookout for any trends, we cut the price to $2.75, and since then have taken another $12,000 for them, so we have a good betting contest on our hands.

Today (Thurs), and over the next few days, we will begin to open betting on a number of selected seats around the country. Those of particular interest will be the two NSW seats of Eden - Monaro and Wentworth, and no doubt we will be able to report on any early activity next week.

ENTERTAINMENT

It is a sad blight on our society when it can be revealed that Australian Idol rated better then the 'debate' between our two leading politicians on Sunday night, but that is exactly what happened!

The good news out of that however is that Australian Idol is hugely popular, and that has been reflected in the high level of betting we have seen on the second series.

Once again, many were bamboozled as to how Dan could have been evicted from the show early this week, but as we have so often said, the singing ability of each contestant is only one factor that you can look at. At least it was a male that was turfed out this week, which does even up things up a bit. Just on that, it is pretty obvious to us that the whole system is unfair, so maybe there should be a male and a female version of the show?

This week, Chanel Cole is back as $3.75 favourite. As much as $67 was available for Anthony Callea prior to him getting back in through the wildcard show, but he is a definite talent, and continues to be backed, even at the $5 he is currently on. Marty Worrall, who had been backed into second fav last week, has drifted to $8 after a lacklustre performance on Sunday night, and also for the fact that he narrowly missed the guillotine on Monday night. All in all, it is still very even, and is really in the hands of the voting public.

Thursday 29th July

ELECTIONS

John Howard would have received the perfect 65th birthday present on Monday had he have visited the Centrebet website. His odds of being re-elected took a tumble from $1.55 into $1.50, and the following day another 'not so positive' poll regarding Labor's chances may well lead to another price change before the week is over.

There has been another $10,000 worth of bets placed in the past week, and the odds of Mr. Howard getting back in are heading back in the direction they were in just before Mark Latham took over at the helm of the Labor Party. At that stage, the Coalition were $1.28, with Labor at $3.25, but over the past month, not a lot has gone right for Labor. Add to that the woes of the Carr Govt in New South Wales (Labor), and all of a sudden there is a gap opening up again in the betting.

The old saying 'where there is smoke, there is fire' will be put to the test over the next week or so. We have taken a few phone calls from people wanting to bet on the date of the election. For obvious reasons, we will keep right away from things like that, but the date that they were looking for was September 18, so we'll see what eventuates there.

Thursday 22nd July

ENTERTAINMENT

Ryan Fitzgerald's mates have certainly created an uproar surrounding Big Brother evictions over the past week. Apparently they have been selling t-shirts on the Gold Coast, and using the funds to ring up and evict one of the contestants. There are two trains of thought here, the first being that that is totally unfair, and the other being that it is no different to radio stations and media outlets canvassing the same way. Any fair minded person would see both sides to the argument, but for the time being, we have ditched betting on the final evictions. It has never been clear how many people actually ring up or 'sms' in for Big Brother, and we suspect that the figure would be so high that a few blokes selling t-shirts couldn't have an impact anyway, but out there in the public is the perception that it might matter, so given how little we hold on the evictions, we'll keep away from them for this week.

Betting on the overall winner is open however, and Trevor is now a lukewarm favourite as he will be missing from Friday's eviction. Our tip is that Bree will go Friday, leaving the three guys left, and who knows what will happen after that. Ryan is still popular with punters even though his mates may have thrown a spanner in the works, but Trevor's chances have improved greatly as he isn't up for eviction. Trevor is now $1.60, with Ryan out to $2.75, Paul at $8, and Bree the outsider at $21.

This week we are also covering 'The Block', which will be decided by auction on Saturday and Sunday. The internal feuds have kept the interest up in this series, and from what we have seen, the auctions of each unit might be very close. They have been open to the public for a few weeks, and several stories in the local press point the same way, that any of the four could win. However, what has been presented on TV so far has been that perhaps Jason and Kirsten, who won the most rooms, have the best unit, and for that reason we priced them up as favourites at $2.50. Early in betting, nearly $800 came for that duo at that quote, but there has been money for all four. Apparently the top two units have very little, if any, sea views, so that makes it that little bit harder for them, while three apartments (excluding Andrew and Jamie's) have been renovated towards a certain sector. For that reason, we are predicting that the winners will be Andrew and Jamie ($4.50) which will shock a few as their apartment has been conveyed as the 'plainest', but in this instance, that might be the major selling point! Betting will be open until the first auction begins on Saturday morning.

ELECTIONS

It is hard to keep election betting out of the news at the moment as there are so many things going on in both the USA and Australia that are affecting the markets on upcoming elections.

There has been plenty of activity on the US election coinciding with the release of Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 9/11.Prior to that, John Kerry had been the $2 outsider, but has joined George Bush at $1.85. The largest bet taken was $5000 from Minnesota at $2, but there have been several bets on the way down to the current price in the vicinity of $500, many from the USA. On the other hand, Bush is at a best priced $1.85, and some who jumped in early and took much shorter several bets taken at $1.30 the day Saddam Hussein was captured) are now helping themselves to the better odds, including one bet of $3000 from a new American client this week. When all the fuss of Moore's movie dies down, one of the candidates will emerge as a clear favourite, it is now just a matter of trying to predict who that will be.

The US election also has some bearing on what has been happening in Australia as the general consensus is that if the USA were to go to the polls before Australia, and George Bush was to fall, then that might well spell the end of John Howard's reign. That has seen a prediction surface that we may go to the polls in October, and for the time being the Howard led Coalition maintain their status as firm favourites at $1.55.

Thursday 15th July

ENTERTAINMENT

As predicted by our form analysts, Monica ($1.01) was evicted from the Big Brother household, but we got the second evictee wrong when Ashalea was also thrown out. Ash was $4.50 fourth choice to be evicted, with most of the bets centred around Catherine, who started $1.40.

There are five left in the house now, and it looks certain that a male will win. This week, Trevor opened at $2.50, but several bets, including one of $1500, saw that price cut to $1.90. Then a wave of support came for Ryan at 3.00 and $2.50. This was the first time that Ryan hadn't been favourite, but by Monday afternoon, Ryan was back vying for favourtism after nearly $6000 was placed on him. Paul has attracted a few bets at $6, and there is no interest at all in the girls, Catherine ($9) and Bree ($17).

The eviction this week sees Catherine at 1.40 to be on her way and she has been best backed. Paul has attracted some support at 4.00, whereas Ryan who had been the favourite to win the major prize since betting opened is the outsider at $6.

Thursday 8th July

ELECTIONS

Quite often the activity in the betting markets isn't a true reflection of what opinion polls say, but the events of the past week involving Mark Latham's past have had an affect on not only people's opinion of him, but also in the betting ring.

Things have been rolling along nicely with waves of support for both Labor and the Coalition, but the Coalition have moved from $1.70 three weeks ago into $1.55 as of Wednesday of this week. Three bets of $10,000 have been placed on the Coalition in that time, the last of those coming this week at $1.60. Since the weekend's news of Mark Latham's alleged treatment of fellow workers, we have only taken one bet for Labor, and that was $40 at $2.20. This election is a long way from being over, and I am sure that the Labor Party would still have a few aces up their sleeves, but for the time being, John Howard is firming quickly to lead the country again after this election, whenever it may be held. Just on that, Centrebet doesn't accept bets on when an election will be held as obviously there would be a group of people within the Howard Government who would have already decided that.

SPECIAL EVENTS

The first prize to the winner of the World Wife Carrying Championships is their 'wife’s' weight in beer, and this year that prize went to Madis Uusorg, who carried petite Inga Klauso to victory in 1 minute, 53 seconds.

Uusorg went in as favourite at $1.75, with an added incentive of an extra prize to the winners, that being a portable wooden sauna and steam bath. Our form analysts perceived that the Estonian may be some risk as he had had hamstring trouble in the Estonian finals. We haven't been able to find out if Madis is related to ex champ Margo Uusorg, but with a surname like that, one would think he was. Madis also adopted the 'Estonian Carry' made famous by Margo Uusorg, and only had to carry one kilo of 'dead weight' as Klauso weighed in at 48 kilos, one kilo under the required minimum.

It was an exciting event which looked like being won by the host nation (Finland) when local couple Taisto Miettinen and Eija Stenberg (well backed second favourites at $2.45) set the time standard of 1min 53 seconds. Uusorg and his partner were the last of the 27 couples to traverse the 253 metre course, and put up a Herculean performance to win 48 kilo's of beer, not forgetting the wooden sauna!

Closer to home, German Markus Pie per won the 16th World Hot Air Balloon Championships at the weekend. Pieper was a $51 chance in our market, and only attracted one very small bet to win. Germany took the quinella when Uwe Shneider ran second, with Australian Paul Gibbs filling third placing. Whilst not favourite, Gibbs was easily our worst result as many thought he would have a home ground -- or should that be home air -- advantage. Gibbs was backed to win close to $10,000, and firmed from $15 into $9. The next championship will be held in Japan in two years time.