21 July, 2011

BETFAIR BULLETIN

NRL – PUNTERS NARROW PREMIERSHIP DOWN TO FOUR TEAMS

Rugby league punters have narrowed the NRL premiership race down to just four teams with the Dragons, Manly, Melbourne and Brisbane considered the only realistic chances of winning the grand final.

The Dragons remain solid favourites on Betfair, firming from $3.55 to $3.15 after their victory over Canberra last weekend.

The impressive Sea Eagles occupy the second line of the market at $5.40 while Melbourne has been a significant firmer from $6.20 to $5.50 on the exchange.

However, the most significant market mover this week has been Brisbane, who have firmed from $11 last week into $8 fourth-picks.

The ‘big four’ are the only teams in single figures with the Wests Tigers next in premiership betting at $20.

Despite being third favourite to win the premiership, Melbourne is into odds-on at $1.80 to win the minor premiership.

Best backed teams for round 20

• Melbourne - $1.70 to $1.58 to beat Brisbane. • Newcastle - $2.40 to $2.30 to beat Cronulla. • Wests Tigers - $1.56 to $1.47 to beat the Roosters.

AFL – SHORTIES SAINTS AND PIES ALL THE RAGE

Punters haven‘t shied away from the two shortest priced teams in round 18 of the AFL season with St. Kilda and Collingwood very popular among the backers.

There have been bets of $5000 and $4000 at odds of $1.16 on the Saints to beat Adelaide while one Betfair punter stands to collect a profit of just $320 from an $8000 bet on Collingwood at $1.04 to beat the Gold Coast Suns.

Futures markets:

• St Kilda is now $1.41 to make the finals after being backed at a high price of $10.50. • Kangaroos are now $4.10 to make the finals having been matched at $26. • Essendon is now $2.28 to make the finals after being matched at a high of $8. • West Coast is now $1.56 to make the top 4 having been backed at $95. • Gold Coast Suns now $2.32 to collect the wooden spoon with Port Adelaide $1.84 favourites.

RUGBY – WALLABIES EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BACK

Despite a shock loss to Samoa last weekend, punters expect the Wallabies to bounce back with a win in their Tri Nations opener against South Africa.

The hosts are just $1.35 to kick start the series with a win, as opposed to the Springboks’ price of $4. Such is the lack of confidence in the visitors’ undermanned line up, less than 15% of money invested in Betfair’s match odds market has been on the ‘Boks.

New Zealand’s powerhouse All Blacks outfit remains a short-priced favourite to win the title the Wallabies have not held aloft since 2002.

TRI NATIONS SERIES ODDS

New Zealand 1.52 Australia 3.75 South Africa 11.0

WORLD CUP UPDATE

The Wallabies’ shock loss has not dented punter confidence in Australia’s World Cup chances. At $5.30, the Wallabies are as short as they have been at any stage in betting, which opened following the 2007 Cup.

This includes recent bets of $7000 and $5000 at odds of $6 on the Wallabies on Betfair’s global betting exchange.

Notwithstanding that, the All Blacks are red hot favourites to win their first Webb Ellis Cup since 1987. Several bets of more than $10,000 has been matched on the Kiwis in recent weeks. They are currently $1.88 to win this year on home soil.

CYCLING – CONTADOR A THREAT TO CADEL’s TOUR DREAM

Spain’s Alberto Contador has taken over from Australia’s Cadel Evans as favourite to win the Tour de France.

Contador, now $2.44, blew to a top price of $10 when out-ridden by his main rivals in the early mountain climbs, but solid performances on stages 16 and 17 has seen him reclaim race favouritism.

Twice the runner-up in the world’s most famous road race, Evans currently holds down second place, and before Contador’s renaissance was considered a certainty to capture the esteemed yellow jersey after the stage 20 time trial, if not sooner.

Backed at an amazing top pre-race price of $50, the Australian started the Tour as the $13.50 third pick but is now trading at $2.48 on Betfair. Andy Schleck is the $9 third favourite after trading as low as even money.

Thomas Voeckler has had a mortgage on the yellow jersey for the bulk of Le Tour but punters still believe he’s bound to crack during the coming days. The great French hope is at $50 to maintain his lead down the Champs-Elysses.

7 July, 2011

PUNTERS ABANDON COWBOYS FOLLOWING THURSTON INJURY

North Queensland could miss top eight with champion half sidelined

North Queensland’s chances of winning the NRL premiership have evaporated and they could struggle to finish in the top eight following the knee injury suffered by Johnathan Thurston during State of Origin three in Brisbane.

That’s the verdict of punters on Betfair, who have wound the Cowboys out from $15.50 fourth favourites in premiership betting to the staggering odds of $28 following confirmation that the inspirational halfback could miss the rest of the season.

Moreover, after trading at $1.05 to make the top eight, punters have offered as much as $2.20 after Thurston was carried off Suncorp Stadium during Queensland’s 34-24 victory over New South Wales.

Punters who’ve wagered in Betfair’s Dally M medal winner market are assured of a nervous end to the regular season, with Thurston backed at $1.51 to win the NRL’s most coveted individual prize before betting was suspended as voting went behind closed doors.

The Cowboys co-captain was considered a good thing to win the Dally M, with Manly’s Kieran Foran on the second line of the market at $8.20 before betting closed.

Betfair’s Mathew Thompson said: “It’s hard to think of a more influential player in the premiership than Thurston. Punters have completely shunned the Cowboys on Betfair since he left the field during last night’s Origin match and they are even prepared to lay them to make the finals.

“The Cowboys were rock solid $15.50 fourth picks in premiership betting but as much as $32 has been offered about them since Thurston went down. They currently sit at $28, almost double the price that was being offered prior to last night’s Origin decider.

“North Queensland was trading at $1.05 on Betfair to make the finals yesterday but have been backed at a top price of $2.20 since the Thurston injury.”

With the Cowboys now given little hope of winning the premiership, punters have launched a good betting move for Melbourne who have firmed from $6.40 to $5.40 in the last 24 hours. The Wests Tigers have also firmed up from $18.50 to $11.50.

4 July, 2011

CONTADOR OUT THE DOOR AS PUNTERS PEDAL FOR SCHLECK IN LE TOUR

Luxembourg’s Andy Schleck is the new Betfair favourite to win this year’s Tour De France following a diabolical start by three-time champion Alberto Contador.

The Spaniard has stopped short of conceding defeat despite slipping 1 minute 42 seconds behind the lead heading into stage three, but punters on the world’s biggest betting exchange now believe Contador will struggle to bridge the gap to Schleck and Australian Cadel Evans and are offering odds of $2.54 on him winning.

Contador started as the $1.90 favourite on Betfair. Schleck has firmed from $3 pre-race to now head betting at $2.32 while Evans remains solid on the third line of the market at $12.50.

That trio are considered the only legitimate winning hopes with Brit Bradley Wiggins currently fourth in the market at $42.

Betfair’s Mathew Thompson said: “Contador and Schleck remain the two leading chances but there has been a shift in punter sentiment away from the Spaniard following his horror start.

“Even considering he was odds-on, Contador was heavily backed in the overall winner market in the days leading into the race start, so Betfair punters worldwide believed he was still the man to beat.

“The weight of money has solely been for Schleck in the last 24 hours.”

Britain’s Mark Cavendish is being widely tipped to register his first stage win of the Tour in stage three this evening, trading at $1.83.

Current Tour leader Thor Hushovd is at $1.11 to retain the yellow jersey after stage three with Cadel Evans at $22 to capture the overall lead.

23 June, 2011

Manly pressing for premiership favouritism - Rory to make two straight at the British Open Federer well fancied at Wimbledon

NRL – A new premiership favourite?

It appears more than two competition points are at stake in Monday night’s NRL blockbuster between St George Illawarra and Manly at WIN Stadium in Wollongong.

It’s likely that with a victory, the Sea Eagles will leapfrog the Dragons and become NRL premiership favourites on Betfair.

The Dragons currently occupy the top of the market at $3.90 which is the longest price at which they’ve traded since the season commenced.

Des Hasler’s men have significantly narrowed the gulf in premiership betting at $4.70 second-picks.

Equally as significant is the fact that Betfair punters have made Manly favourites to win the minor premiership at $2.52 ahead of the Dragons at $2.56.

NRL – Thurston’s escape a relief for Dally M punters

News of Johnathan Thurston’s success at the NRL judiciary came as a relief to Queensland supporters and Betfair backers alike.

The brilliant Cowboys playmaker has been heavily backed into a long odds-on quote on Betfair to win the Dally M medal and a suspension would have seen him docked valuable votes.

Thurston is now $1.60 to be awarded with the NRL’s highest individual honour.

His only genuine rival appears to be Manly star Kieran Foran at $5.90.

Golf – Can anyone stop Rory from stealing the Claret Jug?

Newly crowned U.S Open champion Rory McIllroy has firmed into $7 favourite for the British Open after trading at $17.50 before his first major success this week.

However, Australia’s own emerging star Jason Day has been a significant market mover after his second-place finish at the US Open.

Matched at a top price of $320 on the exchange, Day now shares the sixth line of betting for the Open Championship with Sergio Garcia at $36.

Adam Scott ($75) is the only other Australian under double-figure odds with Geoff Ogilvy ($120) Aaron Baddeley ($170) Stuart Appleby ($210) and Robert Allenby ($220) well out in the market.

Second pick for the British Open on Betfair is Lee Westwood at $11.50 with Tiger Woods the punters’ third pick at $17.50 and world number one Luke Donald at $18.

Tennis - Wimbledon Still a race in four

Roger Federer - Betfair tournament winner - $3.15 / To reach the final - $2

The six-time Wimbledon champion had little trouble in the first round and the punters liked what they saw. Federer has firmed from $3.40 into $3.20 and is a firm favourite to win the men’s singles.

The Swiss maestro blew to $5 during the French Open but has a solid grip on favouritism on his best surface.

Rafael Nadal - Betfair tournament winner - $3.85 / To reach the final - $1.85

The world number one will benefit from a more favourable draw in not having to meet Novak Djokovic in the semi-finals and as a consequence, Betfair backers have been keen to take an odds-on quote about the Spaniard making the final.

With the weight of money favouring Federer, Nadal has eased from $3.40 to his current price of $3.85 in the tournament winner betting.

Novak Djokovic - Betfair tournament winner - $4.70 / To reach the final - $2.66

Djokovic was the Wimbledon favourite prior to his shock loss to Federer in the French Open semi-finals but was subsequently wound out to $5.50.

Sensing that he’d be favoured back on a faster surface, punters have backed the world number two into $4.70 to win at the All-England club. The $2.66 price for Djokovic just to make the final is reflective of the likelihood that he will meet Nadal in the semi-finals.

Andy Murray - Betfair tournament winner - $7.60 / To reach the final - $3.65

The British press has called upon Andy Murray to use Rory McIllroy’s achievements as motivation for a long overdue Wimbledon victory.

It comes as little surprise that the UK punters have spoken with their wallets and backed the Scotsman in from $10.50 to a current price of $7.60 to win his first grand slam.

11 April, 2011

ADAM SCOTT DENIED MASTERS GLORY AS $1.48 FAVOURITE

Jason Day goes close after trading at $110 while $1.68 favourite McIllroy bombs out

Australia’s Adam Scott was backed at the near certainty price of $1.48 to win the U.S Masters today before being denied by an extraordinary sequence of birdies from South Africa’s Charl Schwartzel.

On a thrilling final days play, a total of 8 individual players were matched at single-figure odds on Betfair, including Tiger Woods who firmed to a low price of $2.48 when he shared the lead at -10.

Scott produced a scintillating final round of five-under, 65, featuring three birdies on the back nine that propelled the Queenslander to a two-shot lead after 16 holes and within reach of the first Australian Masters victory.

With Scott down to a price of $1.48, Schwartzel was the only player given any chance of bridging the two-shot gap at odds of $5.

No-one could have anticipated that Schwartzel would birdie the final four holes to win his first major by two-strokes.

Betfair snapshot of the final four holes: Scott v Schwartzel (Betfair price fluctuations as players completed each respective hole.)

15th 16th 17th 18th

Scott $2.40 $1.48 $2.26 $12

Schwartzel $5 $4 $2.34 $1.15

While Scott and Schwartzel looked to be in a two-man war for Masters supremacy, the youngest of the six Australian’s in the field had other ideas.

23 year-old Jason Day had slipped three-shots behind with just three holes remaining and subsequently drifted to $110 on Betfair to manufacture an unlikely win. However, his birdie-birdie finish saw him shoot up the leader board to -12, level with Scott and one stroke behind Schwartzel.

Day firmed to $9 to win as parochial Australian punters hoped for a case of the yips to suddenly overtake the South African.

Another Australian, Geoff Ogilvy, blew to the maximum price on Betfair of $1000 to win when he bogeyed two of his first four holes on the last day but firmed dramatically to just $5.50 after five-successive between the 12th and 16th.

Third-round leader Rory McIllroy capitulated after trading at as low as $1.68 when he led by two-shots on the final day.

Betfair’s Mathew Thompson said: “This has to be the most dramatic final day since Greg Norman butchered his five-stroke lead in the 1996 Masters. Adam Scott and Jason Day played spectacular golf but couldn’t break the Aussie hoodoo on the famed Augusta fairways. “The flurry of activity on Betfair matched the frantic jostling on-course. Punters on Betfair, the world’s biggest betting exchange, traded close to $38 million in the U.S Masters winner market alone.

9 March, 2011

HOUSTON CREATES A PROBLEM FOR PUNTERS
Filly matched at $280 after missing the start and at $1.01 before being beaten

Promising filly Houston Benefactor generated an extraordinary in-running betting story at Canterbury this afternoon when she was matched at $280 on Betfair after missing the start by six lengths, only to trade at the minimum price of $1.01 on the exchange when she charged through the field and appeared set to notch a miracle victory.

But there was another twist in this already staggering betting tale, as $48 outsider Exceed and Exalt broke through late to hit the line in-sync with Houston Benefactor.

The roughie was awarded the race in a photo, meaning the Anthony Cummings trained Houston Benefactor not only traded at $280 after missing the start but was also beaten after being matched at $1.01

Betfair’s Mathew Thompson said: “I can’t remember a race where a horse traded at such opposite prices. It’s a genuine punting rarity and highlights the quality of Houston Benefactor’s run after dwelling in the gates.

“The layers were quick to offer any price when Houston Benefactor missed the start, but that quick thinking nearly brought about a punting wipeout as the daughter of Encosta De Lago charged home to figure in the finish.

“Punters were then prepared to take any price about the filly when she emerged from the pack, many taking $1.01 about her winning, only to see outsider Exceed and Exalt fly home closer to the fence.

“Regardless of whether they’ve won or lost, Betfair punters will no doubt be shaking their heads for quite a while whenever they reflect on this race.”

3 March, 2011

LUCKY IRISH BACKED AT $401 IN-PLAY AGAINST ENGLAND
Poms trade at $1.01 on Betfair before suffering an impossible loss

Cricketing minnows Ireland were backed at the staggering price of $401 on Betfair before launching a breathtaking resurgence to defeat their most bitter rivals England at the Cricket World Cup.

Punters on Betfair, the world's biggest betting exchange with customers in more than 60 countries, considered England a virtual certainty at match odds of $1.03. Conversely, Ireland was at $30 to win prior to the match.

It took just three overs for England to tighten to the shortest possible odds on Betfair of $1.01. They stayed at that price until deep into Ireland’s run chase.

English supporters would have switched off the television when their side amassed an imposing 7-327 from 50 overs, and Ireland's chase couldn't have started much worse as they ballooned to $401 on Betfair to win when Gary Wilson was dismissed to leave his side floundering at 5-111.

Enter Kevin O'Brien.

The unlikely Irish middle order slugger unleashed hell on England, slamming the fastest ever World Cup century to manufacture the most famous result in Irish cricket history.

When O'Brien helped to contribute 62 from Ireland's five over batting power play, punters sensed there was perhaps some hope and shortened the minnow’s price, albeit to $120. England however remained at $1.01.

Andrew Strauss's team finally drifted to odds of $2 in the 46th over when the runs Ireland needed for victory reached parity with the balls remaining.

Also at that juncture, Ireland’s price to win entered single figures for the first time in the entire match.

England was back into $1.50 in the second last over when O’Brien was run out for 123 from 63 balls, but the very next delivery punters wound the Poms out to $4 when former New South Wales paceman Trent Johnston clubbed Stuart Broad to the boundary first ball.

Betfair’s Mathew Thompson said: “The magnitude of O’Brien’s knock is put into context when you consider his team was considered a $401 chance to beat England when he strode to the wicket. That was the opinion of punters from more than 60 countries. It is sports equivalent of a miracle.

“It was Ireland’s lucky day, so hopefully some of Betfair’s Irish customers were feeling patriotic and snapped up some of the $401. At the same time, punters around the world have been able to lay England to win (bet against an English win) at the lowest possible odds of $1.01 and have cleaned up with the most unlikely of results.”

It seems the embarrassment associated with losing to a non-test playing nation is the only serious implication for England, who is still at $1.26 on Betfair to advance to the quarter-finals of the World Cup.

They’ve drifted from $10.50 to $14 to win the tournament, which after last night’s diabolical fielding display, looks about as likely as an Irishman making the fastest century ever in a World Cup.

BETFAIR LAUNCHES ‘CASH 4 CLUBS’

From the dusty football fields of the outback to the surf clubs that adorn Australia’s iconic beaches, amateur sport is a crucial part of our culture.

To help sports clubs continue to provide inspiration and enjoyment for people of all ages, Betfair is pleased to launch Cash 4 Clubs, a sports funding scheme which gives clubs the opportunity to apply for cash grants.

The money can be used to improve facilities, purchase new equipment, gain coaching qualifications and generally invest in the sustainability of their club.

Betfair’s Chief Executive Officer, Andrew Twaits said: “We believe very strongly in the value of grass roots community sport and Cash 4 Clubs has been conceived to give amateur clubs around Australia a helping hand.

“Sport plays a vital role in people’s lives, from maintaining fitness, promoting teamwork and boosting self-esteem and it’s important that sports clubs around the country remain a hub of enjoyment and participation within the community.”

Any club registered with their sport's National Governing Body or local authority can apply for a grant under the Cash 4 Clubs scheme.

Betfair has enlisted the help of two prominent Australian football identities and former Australian Test cricketing great, Greg Chappell, to judge the most worthy applications.

Through his work as the AFL’s Community Facility Development Manager, Ken Gannon has seen first-hand what’s required to run an amateur sports clubs.

“The great challenge for local sporting clubs is to provide a quality environment that will engage with the local community, especially the youth. Grants such as the Cash 4 Clubs program will help those clubs gain those high standards we all want in our community.”

Joining Gannon on the judging panel will be Wests Tigers 2005 premiership winning forward, John Skandalis.

“I grew up playing junior rugby league in the Western Suburbs of Sydney and was fortunate enough to progress to the elite level. I couldn’t have achieved what I have without the support of so many people at junior level and Betfair’s Cash 4 Clubs initiative will provide a much needed financial boost for many sports clubs around Australia,” Skandalis said.

6 February, 2011

BETFAIR MARKS FIVE YEARS IN AUSTRALIA

Today Betfair celebrates the fifth anniversary of its licensing in Australia.

The company, based at Tasmania’s technology park in Hobart, employs 160 staff and has prompted much-needed reform in the Australian wagering industry in the areas of integrity-management, harm minimisation and funding to the racing and sporting industries.

“Betfair’s journey in Australia has only just begun,” said Betfair’s Australasian CEO, Andrew Twaits.

“We’re proud of financial contributions we’ve made to racing, sport and charitable endeavours over the past five years.”

Since obtaining its license in February 2006, Betfair has contributed nearly $50 million in State government taxes and product fees to racing and sporting bodies.

“We now have more than 160,000 Australian and New Zealand customers and we’re very confident about future growth and profitability.

“As with other industries like retail, travel and insurance, consumers are increasingly turning to the internet to compare prices, choose between different providers and, ultimately get a better price and better customer services.

“The investments we’ve made in technology, product development and hiring the right people put us in a terrific position to capitalise on changing consumer behaviour.”

Coinciding with this milestone, the Tasmanian Gaming Commission last week renewed Betfair's license for a further five years.

"Five years is a long time in a technology-rich environment like ours.  So the fact that we've committed to keep our Australian operations in Tasmania for two further five year terms - to 2021 - illustrates our confidence in Tasmania's ability to meet our growth needs over the next decade.”