How to trade on an exchange - Part IV
by Scott Ferguson from
Betfair
Make profits from someone else's
research
There are thousands of licensed
bookmakers around the world - how many of them do you honestly think do
all the hard work themselves? Realistically, very few. Most bookies will
have their own area of expertise, but there simply aren't enough hours in
the day for them to price up every market for every match in every league
around the world by themselves.
Do some homework - work out who is good
at certain events, particularly the less popular leagues. You could spend
months working out who the best judge is on the English Premiership, but
the matches are so popular and the exchange markets so tight, that it is
very hard to make an earn as a 'trader'. The smaller the market, the more
time you have to prepare.
Let's take a look at something more
obscure as an example - the Conference. You've spent a few weeks following
which bookmakers take an opinion on a match (by offering best price rather
than being 'vanilla' or the same as everyone else), and now you are
prepared to follow them by offering the same figures or slightly better
than their prices on Betfair. The best part? You can set your risk amount
to as much or as little as you like.
XYZBookie.com have had great opinions in
recent weeks, so you want to lay any team they have best odds for. So from
their market of Barnet v Halifax, you see that they are best price around
on the home side at 1.80, with conservative prices of 3.30 the draw, 3.80
for Halifax - a market of 112%. Unless you are first to price the market
up on the exchange, you will have to improve on those prices to jump to
the front of the queue and get matched.
Click on 'Lay All', then offer a slightly
better price on all options - say 1.82, 3.40, 4.10 - a market of 108.7%.
You are now top price on the favourite, but still in the mix on the
others, and with some margin (the 8.7%) up your sleeve to manoeuvre later.
Click on 'Liability' to set how much you are prepared to lose on each
selection. If you are keen to lay the home side as per the 'expert
opinion' of XYZBookie, then offer to lay Barnet to lose £100, with just
£50 of risk on the other pair. With your conservative prices on the draw &
away options, you might not get matched anyway.
Note that when you are entering an amount
as the 'lay' figure, this is the stake that the backer can take on the
other side, NOT the risk - this is shown in the column to the right if you
have selected the liability option rather than payout. So to risk £100 on
Barnet at 1.82, you will need to offer £121.95 on your lay.
In smaller markets, don't expect these
funds to be matched instantly. You may need to wait several hours or even
a couple of days. Check back on the market every few hours to see your
position. If you are still head of the market, then be patient. But if
someone has jumped ahead of you, you will have to tweak your odds a
little, remembering to keep the percentages in your favour. This might
sound like a lot of hassle, but it can reward you greatly if you take the
time to mould the market your way.
And remember this - if you get to the
market first, you can post offers as short as you like. At least 3/4 of
exchange punters are market TAKERS rather than market MAKERS - they either
don't understand the concept of value or aren't prepared to risk it. Lay
low, back high and you'll be well on the road to success on the exchanges!
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