Thursday 16th October

Cricket

Punters were on the mark in the first Test between India and Australia when the match ended up drawn.

There was plenty of money to suggest that would happen before the Test began, with one punter from the UK placing a total of $12,000 on a draw at an average of 2.30. There had also been support for India (3.25 into 3.00), but they were all but out of contention during their first innings chase of Australia.

After that point in time, the possibility of bad weather as well as a reasonably favourable batting track saw money continue to come for a draw, including one bet of $8000 at 1.60. That result has given us some hope however that the Aussies either win or draw the four Test series and that would be a more than handy result. Several four figure amounts (largest being $6000) was placed on India to win the series at 2.25, and while that remains the price, we haven't given up hope just yet.

The second Test gets under way on Friday, and it will be the first time that Australia has played India in Mohali. Only seven Tests have been played at this ground, and while India has only lost once, there have been four draws. That statistic has seen plenty of money come for the draw again, and in the first 24 hours of betting, the price crashed from 2.30 into 2.20.

Anil Kumble has been under fire this week about his performance in the first Test, but it is worth noting that the spinner has grabbed 15 wickets at his last two appearances in Mohali. That may be an opportunity if any bookies are offering a 'most wickets' market, and of course also points towards the pitch being a spinner's track. We will be taking on the draw again to try and get some of the first Test losses back.

Formula One

Fernando Alonso won his second successive GP in Japan at the weekend, and once again it was a big upset.

Alonso was nowhere near the 67.00 that he was in Singapore, but he still went around on Sunday virtually unwanted at 26.00. Plenty went right for the Spaniard with favourites Lewis Hamilton and Felipe Massa encountering their fair share of problems, but at the end of the day it was Alonso who came out on top.

Pre-qualifying, Alonso was at 21.00, and he eased out slightly after being allocated position number four on the grid. Lewis Hamilton was on pole, and he was the one that punters were keen on. After opening at 1.90 at the conclusion of the Saturday session, Hamilton was into 1.70 at start time, with the largest bet being $8000 from an Asian client who may well have been at the race.

He didn't get much of a run for his money as Hamilton was given a drive through penalty for trouble he caused on the first turn after a slow start. After that he was rammed by Massa, and that was the end of either of their winning hopes. Hamilton wound up in 12th place which of course means he failed to get a point, while Massa finished in the points in 7th place. The gap between the pair has now closed to five points, so we can expect some thrilling action in the two remaining races which will be held in China and Brazil.

Title betting is still alive and well, and Lasseters has Hamilton at 1.33 ahead of Massa at 3.20, but Robert Kubica is still a remote chance (21.00) of causing an upset after finishing second in Japan.

Motor Bikes

The trick to finding the winner of Sunday's Moto GP in Malaysia will be deciding who has the most motivation, and who is fit.

As we know, Casey Stoner won the most recent race in Australia, and all the talk before the race was whether or not he would in fact finish, such is the magnitude of his wrist injury. Stoner was naturally eager to win on home soil, but you have to question how he will perform this week.

Lasseters has listed Stoner as a 2.50 chance pre-qualifying, but there has been no interest at all in him. To be fair, the betting overall has been quiet, with Valentino Rossi heading the market at 2.10. The Italian has already wrapped up the Championship, and while punters always hold the view that somebody like Rossi now has nothing to ride for, he has been in this position before and still won.

Rossi has won three of the last five Malaysian GP's, and they all came on the back of qualifying fastest. He finished 5th last year behind Stoner, but Casey wasn't carrying any injuries at that time. Next in line are Dani Pedrosa and Jorge Lorenzo (both 8.00), and both of these riders are more than capable of winning, especially given that each of them has been competitive at various stages this season.

Elections

There are a few elections closing in on us and in some good news for the Labor Party, the ACT election looks certain to go their way this weekend.

The setup is different in the ACT, and with only 17 Assembly seats to decide the victor, all the signs are there that John Stanhope will remain the Chief Minister. The 'quota' system in the ACT has come in for plenty of criticism in the past, but on this occasion it looks as though that will be the saviour of Labor, and that will buck a recent trend we have seen in other State and Territory elections. At the time of writing, Labor was 1.13 and the Libs were 5.50, but neither side had seen much backing at those quotes.

In the USA, the momentum behind John McCain has come to a screaming halt. A month ago McCain was into 2.10 with Barack Obama out to 1.70, but the collapse of the US market, as well as some issues with Sarah Palin and her past, has seen that price blow out to 5.50. We are now too close to the election for McCain to get back to where he was in the betting, so it does look as though Barack Obama will be sworn in as the next President of the USA.

Finally, a change of government looks on the cards in New Zealand, with current PM Helen Clark now a 4.50 chance to retain power. The Labour Party of NZ has been under intense scrutiny over the last few months, and apart from a bet of $800 at 4.50 this week, we haven't been able to find anybody who thinks that the John Key-led National Party will not be swept into power. Time and time again we have said that 'money talks' in political betting, so you can expect a change of government in New Zealand if the betting is as accurate as it has been in the past!

Dancing With The Stars

Jodi Gordon was the latest DWTS casualty, and at least Jodi's early demise has put an end to speculation that 'going out with the boss' daughter' would see her through to the end.

As we mentioned last week, we thought Jodi would be the next to go, and had her priced as the 3.75 favourite, but it was wide open. The punters saw it completely differently, and the only bets we took for Jodi were a few small ones totalling less than $50.

Most of the bigger bets came for Danny Green, including one of $500 at 4.00, as well as two separate $200 wagers for Luke Jacobz. This week we are tipping it is all over for Danny, and he has been installed as our 2.00 favourite, although we haven't been able to find any early takers at that price.

As each week passes, it looks more and more likely that Toni Pearen will be crowned the series winner, and that is reflected in her price. Toni is 2.20 with Paul Licuria (3.50) next in line. Paul topped the judge's scoring last week, and we haven't totally ruled him out as a likely winner.

Licuria has the backing of the Collingwood Football Club, and the AFL code got right behind Anthony Koutifides when he won a couple of seasons back, so that sort of support will go a long way in keeping Paul in the competition.

Australian Idol

Thanh Bui was shown the door from Australian Idol this week, and that was also one of our better results from the current crop of reality shows.

Thanh, Sophie and Teale were the bottom three, with the two boys left to battle it out once Sophie was safe. The blonde bombshell was backed for a bundle to go, including one bet of $800 at 3.25, and there was also a lot of money for the other two females, Chrislyn and Roshani. Both attracted close to $500 in bets at around the 9.00 mark, but neither made it to the bottom three.

It seems as though the public have warmed to Chrislyn even though she has been copping a bit of flack from the judges recently. This week's elimination has been the busiest to date, with early money coming for five of those left in the race. The only two that haven't had a bet at all placed on them have been the two favourites, Sophie and Teale (both 3.00), but our entertainment analyst maintains that one of the duo will go. One punter has come from left field and backed Wes (51.00) and Mark (26.00) to win close to $7500, while another plunged on Luke at 7.50 and 6.50 to win a similar amount.

So now we have a situation where one punter thinks that Wes will go this week, whereas the rest of the country thinks he will go on and be the next Aussie Idol. Wes is trading at 1.90 this week, and we have seen another $1500 come in at that quote, but there has been some money for Mark (3.75) and Roshani at 9.00. Chrislyn continues to top the popularity polls in the forums, but has eased out to 10.00 to win, and interest in her has dried right up.