Sports Gambling lessons from the Share Market
by
Don NguyenI was reading
the paper recently and came across an interesting article titled “Have you
got what it takes?” The article was about the characteristics required to
be a successful sharemarket investor. Many of these lessons are directly
applicable to sports gambling so I thought I’d extract the salient details
and present a more punting oriented viewpoint.
1. Focus
“The qualities you see in successful
investors are similar to the characteristics you see in successful people
in most areas. That begins with having clear goals. They start with the
big picture and work their way down to the details” – Arun Abey, executive
chairman of IPAC Securities
As a punter you should be focused on long
term results, not individual events. Often you’ll see punters agonising
over bad line calls, poor umpiring and teams failing to cover the point
spread. However, to the serious investor these details are trivial.
Instead, the sports investor should be analysing their position over
hundreds or even thousands of results.
2. Involvement
“Successful investors invest time in at
least understanding broadly what investment markets are about, what
trade-offs there are and so on.” – Arun Abey, executive chairman of IPAC
Securities
It is very important to set realistic
expectations and to have at least a basic grasp of the mathematics behind
sports gambling. Once you’ve dispelled such nonsense as “hot streaks” and
“cold streaks” you will be much better equipped to deal with the emotional
roller coaster that naturally accompanies the life of any sports gambler.
3. Discipline
“Successful investors establish their
principles and stick to them rigidly” – Jim Clegg, principal consultant
with Berkley Group
Successful investors are the ones who
know what they are doing. They are not interested in following the market
because they have their own differentiated strategy. They are not worried
about following “smart money” or looking at price movements. The strategy
of course has to be a sensible one or else your money will just go toward
your bookmaker’s next Ferrari.
4. Hard Yakka
“Most successful share investors
undertake to get to know the companies and industries in which they’re
investing” – Michael Heffernan, senior adviser at Terrain Securities
The most successful investors are the
ones with the most knowledge. In team sports, they will know how to
convert money lines into point spreads. For a given number, they will know
what percentage of games land on that number. They will be able to
calculate home ground advantage for any given team. They will keep up to
date with injuries, weather, team motivation and any other factors that
may affect the game. For individual sports, successful punters will be
intimately acquainted with the players. Once again the punter will keep up
to date with injuries, personal events, motivation, player interviews and
any other factors that can affect performance.
5. Patience
“It’s OK to be apprehensive, but the
successful investors control their fears in bad times and accept that this
is part of being a long term investor” – John Aldersley, managing director
of DirectPortfolio
Being a successful sports investor means
coming to grips with the fact that you will lose. A lot. There will be
days, weeks, months and perhaps even years where nothing seems to be
working. 95% of the time your bankroll will be below its previous all time
high. Unfortunately this is the nature of the business and if this is not
something for which you are prepared, then do not take this on as a
serious investment vehicle.
6. Value
Learn the meaning of value. A lot of
people say that the best value bet is a winning ticket. However a winning
ticket is not necessarily a value bet. For example, in the cricket a lot
of bookmakers offer odds on the result of the coin toss. Let’s say they
offer odds of $1.95 each side. Further let’s assume some mug actually
decides to bet on this event and wins. Even though he’s cashed a winning
ticket, it is a poor value bet. For $1.95 to be value, your winning
percentage has to be greater than 51.28%. Since in this case your winning
percentage is only be 50%, it is a poor value bet win or lose and
eventually you will go broke taking these odds.
To conclude the article I’d like to
include some words of wisdom from Warren Buffett.
‘While Buffett’s not always right, he
says he wants to be able to explain his mistakes – and so he never invests
in anything he doesn’t understand. “Risks comes from not knowing what
you’re doing” he says’
This is a philosophy with which I
wholeheartedly agree. If you do not have a logical, sound reasons for
every wager that you make, then it is necessary to take a step back and
re-evaluate what you are doing. However, if you are confident that your
strategy will work in the long run and you work diligently to apply that
strategy with discipline and rigour, then maybe, just maybe your bookmaker
will be paying for your next house, instead of you paying for his. |