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Tuesday October 7, 2008 -


TENNIS

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U.S. OPEN PREVIEWS & PLAYS
... with OnThePunt's resident Tennis expert

Updated 4:24 PM AEST, Sunday 8 September
2002 U.S. Open
Long Island, New York
Aug 26-Sept 8, 2002
Surface: Hard - Draw Size: 128
Prize Money: US $6,834,415
Grand Slam

 

SUNDAY - FINAL

 

Pete Sampras USA (17) vs. Andre Agassi USA (6)

- H-H 19-14 Sampras (3-0 at Flushing Meadows). As Uncle Sam rejoices and the rest of the world has to put up with another day of American chest pumping, we are faced with a most unlikely final match-up. Neither had things go all their own way in yesterday's semis. A combination of Sampras' fine serving and ability to produce when it mattered and Schalken's lack of experience in the big time saw the veteran crucially claim the first two tiebreaks. Meanwhile, Agassi's relentless backcourt game proved too much for an out of sorts Hewitt. It must be said that he, like all champions do, played the big points the best. His groundstrokes were superb against Hewitt and one can expect him to win the majority of the baseline exchanges today. Sampras is placing more pressure on his serve in recent times and in a final up against a returner of Agassi's ability is when he'll struggle. Agassi in three or four for mine.

NO PLAY

 

SATURDAY - SEMI FINALS (-2 units)

 

PLAY

 

Pete Sampras USA (17) vs. Sjeng Schalken NED (24)

- H-H 4-0 Sampras (all on hard, but they have not met since '98). Well well, Pete makes it through to his 9th U.S. Open semi final. Given his form coming into this fortnight, a truly remarkable effort. The scribes have him in the final already, but I feel this sentiment is a little premature. The old man will have to battle through the heat of the day this time, and has an in-form opponent who is more than capable of giving him plenty of trouble. Schalken has an accurate serve and will be more than happy to go with Sampras from the back of the court. As far as I see it, it all comes down to how well Sampras serves. If he's slightly off, he'll lose the confidence that has got him this far and it's game on.

Schalken (2 units at 3.70 - Centrebet) -2

 

 

Lleyton Hewitt 1.70 AUS (1) vs. Andre Agassi USA (6)

- Hewitt leads the series 4-2 (all on hard) inc. the last three but this is the first time they've met over five sets. The crowd might be screaming for a Sampras-Agassi final at this stage, but I'm tipping the Aussie to be far too strong. Hewitt will be in no hurry to end points as Agassi is always less confident in prolonged rallies. He can match or better Agassi in all departments, is serving brilliantly and most of all, is 11 years his junior. But in a semi-final, the price needs to be a little higher for me to get involved.

 

 

THURSDAY - QUARTER FINALS

 

NO PLAYS

 

 

Andy Roddick 1.75 USA (11) vs. Pete Sampras USA (17)

- After holding back on opposing Sampras against Haas, I'm very tempted tonight, but on analysis the price looks about right to me and that means no bet. Roddick holds a 2-0 head-to-head advantage but that means little at this stage of Grand Slam. I fully expect A-rod to run the dinosaur all over the court and eventually wear him down, but he'll need to be well and truly on his game tonight.

 

Fernando Gonzalez 1.72 CHI (28) vs. Sjeng Schalken NED (24)

- The heavy hitting Gonzalez has done it relatively easy since toughing it through his 1st round match with Mathieu - failing to drop a set to the likes of Carlsen, Ferrero and Clement. The more experienced Schalken meanwhile can thank the Scud for doing his knee in the 1st round when he looked down and out. He has since had wins over Ljubicic, Sargsian and Kuerten. Gonzo has the edge in the service department, but I'm a little concerned about his lack of big time experience. He has never played on the caldron that is the Arthur Ashe Stadium whereas the Dutchman played his Kuerten match here on Tuesday.

 

 

WEDNESDAY - QUARTER FINALS

 

NO PLAYS

 

 

Other Matches (Selections in BOLD):

 

Lleyton Hewitt 1.18 AUS (1) vs. Younes El Aynaoui MAR (20)

- The Moroccan got past Hewitt in their only previous hardcourt meeting a year ago at Indianapolis, but this figures to be a different result. Younes was out on court past 2am in his gutsy win over Ferreira on Monday night and while he's had the day's rest, those 30 year-old legs must be feeling a little dull. Hewitt had a nice workout against Novak on Monday night with a remarkable display of serving (19 aces) highlighting the match.

 

Max Mirnyi BLR (32) vs. Andre Agassi 1.16 USA (6)

- Agassi comes into this having had four straight-set victories and losing just 24 games along the way. That's solid form in anyone's book and while he's happy to get through so easily, I'm sure wouldn't have minded a tougher workout a some stage. Mirnyi has only dropped two sets himself, and win or lose, this represents his best Grand Slam result from 14 starts. Given his lack of experience in the second week of the major's, it will be interesting to see how he handles the big primetime occasion. Agassi wiped him off the court in their only previous meeting in July and it's tough to imagine the result being different today.

 

 

TUESDAY - 4TH ROUND (+4.32 units)

 

Fernando Gonzalez CHI (28) vs. Arnaud Clement FRA

- Gonzo did the job for us yesterday with a straight sets win over J-C Ferrero, while the Frenchman squeezed through against our man Coria. Gonzalez defeated Clement a month ago in Cincinnati and as previously mentioned, his hardcourt form has been faultless. Clement has the edge in experience, but looks to have been doing it tougher to get this this stage and has struggled against similar types in the past.

Gonzalez (6 units at 1.72 - Sportingbet) +4.32

 

 

Other Matches (Selections in BOLD):

 

Juan Ignacio Chela ARG (26) vs. Andy Roddick 1.40 USA (11)

- This should be a cracker. Chela comes into this relatively fresh after his straight sets whitewash of an injured Tim Henman last night, while Roddick, despite winning in three, had a very tough workout in a post-midnight finish with Corretja. The Yank looks to be playing within himself this week and has been keeping the unforced errors to a minimum. Chela beat him at Miami in March, and Roddick lost to three 'claycourters' in the lead-up to the Open (Canas, Gonzalez and Meligeni), so I won't be touching this price.

 

Pete Sampras USA (17) vs. Tommy Haas 1.85 GER (3)

- What can one say about Peter Sampras? The guy looked a shadow of his former self for the majority of his marathon with Rusedski, but somehow managed to come out on top. He looked slow to the net, missed some of the easiest volleys and smashes that you'll ever see, but he still won it (and we lost!). The Brit certainly didn't help his cause by tightening up whenever things got close. The great one has been given all the favours by the USTA with maximum rest for this night time encounter and he's now something like 19 or 20-zip here at night, but that's in the past. If the Haas shoulder can hold up look for him to have too much, but there's just too much doubt for me to make this one a play.

 

Sjeng Schalken NED (24) vs. Gustavo Kuerten 1.40 BRA

- Kuerten holds the 7-1 (4-0 on hard) H-H advantage here and comes off a very easy match last night with Massu calling it quits in the second set. Schalken had few problems with Sargsian and has been working himself into some decent form, but with his record against Guga, is very hard to support today.

 

 

MONDAY - 4TH ROUND - NO PLAYS

 

SUNDAY - 3RD ROUND - PLAYS  (-2.8 units)

 

Greg Rusedski GBR (33) vs. Pete Sampras USA (17)

- Everyone's talking about the four-time champion's sudden return to form, but lets just remember who he has defeated here this week - Portas and Pless - surely that's nothing to get one too excited. Yes, he's been serving well, but he'll need to today. Rusedski's been in excellent form coming into this with wins over the likes of Safin, Haas and Hewitt. He came through a very tough match against Srichaphan, and despite a horrific 1-8 head-to-head record, these two have been going in opposite directions this year.

Rusedski (4 units at 2.38 - SportingOdds) -4

 

Juan Carlos Ferrero ESP (7) vs. Fernando Gonzalez CHI (28)

- Ferrero hasn't been all that convincing in his wins over Arthurs and Etlis for mine. Gonzalez has defeated the likes of Henman and Roddick on hardcourts in recent times and no doubt has the ability to upset the Spaniard.

Gonzalez (4 units at 2.30 - Centrebet) +5.2

 

Guillermo Coria ARG vs. Arnaud Clement FRA

- The Frenchman came through a five-setter against Grosjean, while Coria has failed to drop a set versus Waske and Lisnard. Clement is making far too many errors, so he looks well over the odds today.

Coria (4 units at 2.30 - Centrebet) -4

 

 

Other Matches (Selections in BOLD):

 

4th Round Matches

 

Lleyton Hewitt 1.20 (SportsTAB) AUS (1) vs. Jiri Novak CZE (14)

- Hewitt leads the H-H 3-0 (2-0 on hard). The night time conditions shouldn't favour either, and while Jiri Novak has had a fine year, he will struggle to match it from the back against Hewitt.

 

Younes El Aynaoui MAR (20) vs. Wayne Ferreira 2.10 (Various) RSA

- Good luck trying to pick the winner of these two thirty-something's. The South African has the edge in the service department but these two are hard to separate over the best of five. The Moroccan's form looks to have tapered off a fraction coming into this after what has been a great year, but Ferreira plays for the big tourney's these days.

 

Max Mirnyi BLR (32) vs. Roger Federer 1.45 (Blue Square) SUI (13)

- Federer leads the H-H 3-0. Federer has run himself into some very handy form this week now that he's put the events of the past few weeks behind him. Mirnyi has done enough to advance in his three matches, but I can't see him getting close here.

 

Jan-Michael Gambill USA vs. Andre Agassi 1.25 (Victor Chandler) USA (6)

- Quite a history already between these two - the record stands at 8-2 (all on hard) in Agassi's favour. Don't expect the trend to change today. Both have failed to drop a set to this stage - Gambill has been the surprise packet - only dropping 11 games, five less than Agassi - with remarkable defeats of Moya and Gaudio. He looks like a man on a mission, but against the best returner in the game, he has struggled to match it in the past and I don't see why this will be any different.

 

3rd Round Matches

 

Tim Henman GBR (5) vs. Juan Ignacio Chela 2.50 ARG (26)

- Both have impressed to get here without dropping a set. The Brit will be attempting to equal his best U.S. Open result but it won't be easy. There is continuing concern over his troublesome right shoulder - "I'm just going to have to take it one match at a time and see how it does react if I get into a very long match," said Henman after his last match. "It's sort of more fatigued, as the match progresses it just sort of feels like it stiffens up and gets pretty tight in and around the shoulder. I suppose there is still somewhat of an unknown if I really have to play a tough match." Not inspiring words, as Chela, having a superb year, is sure to give plenty of fight. Remember Hills (7/4) void on retirements so look for 6/4 elsewhere.

 

Alex Corretja ESP (18) vs. Andy Roddick 1.45 USA (11)

- The young American looks to have toned things down a fraction this week (just 19 errors vs Sluiter) and it's clearly paying dividends. The slightly heavier night conditions will suit the Spaniard but expect the crowd to get the Yank across the line.

 

Thomas Enqvist SWE (29) vs. Tommy Haas 1.55 GER (3)

- The German holds a 7-2 h-h record here, including wins in the last six meetings (three on hard). Hard to know how bad the Haas shoulder is, but all going well, he should have the Swede's measure. One to avoid.

 

Sargis Sargsian ARM vs. Sjeng Schalken 1.30 NED (24)

- Schalken very impressive against Ljubicic, but he's come up short enough.

 

Nicolas Massu CHI vs. Gustavo Kuerten 1.36 BRA

- Guga played a great game against Safin, bringing the Russian into the net where he was all over the place. You'd expect the Brazillian to go on with it today, but Massu is a different type of opponent who won't go down without a fight.

 

 

SATURDAY - 3RD ROUND (-9.5 units)

 

PLAYS

 

Jan-Michael Gambill USA vs. Gaston Gaudio ARG (21)

- The Yank played the game of his life against Moya on Wednesday night - he had far too much pace for the Spaniard and served brilliantly - it won't be easy to repeat that performance. Gaudio is one of the new breed of South Americans with a massive ability off the dirt, he has an excellent serve himself and has one of the best backhand's in the business.

Gaudio (4 units at 2.38 - SportingOdds) -4

 

Lleyton Hewitt AUS (1) vs. James Blake USA (25)

- The #1 has looked comfortable to date, but expect a thorough work-out today. It's hard to forget last year's controversial encounter here, but Hewitt did come out on top again last time they met at Miami in March. The American is a very smart type who has nothing to lose today, so the 4/1 or better is a fraction too big for mine.

Blake (1.5 units at 5.00 - SportingOdds) -1.5

 

Dominik Hrbaty SVK vs. Max Mirnyi BLR (32)

- Hrbaty was one of the hardest workers through the clay season by all reports and he has turned around average lead-up with big wins over Ancic and Kafelnikov. Not overly impressed Mirnyi's form coming into this and his wins to date don't warrant a quote this short.

Hrbaty (4 units at 2.35 - Centrebet; Sportodds) -4

 

 

Other Matches (Selections in BOLD):

 

Marcelo Rios CHI (22) vs. Jiri Novak 1.85 CZE (14)

- Novak leads the H-H 3-1 (all on clay) and has had a super year with a 42-20 record.  A tight encounter is more than likely, but Novak has been serving the better and should come out on top.

 

Fernando Vicente ESP vs. Younes El Aynaoui 1.35 MAR (20)

- The Spaniard has had a couple of nice wins this week but faces a much tougher opponent today. El Aynaoui is another played who has improved greatly in 2002 (#17 from 40 in 2001) and will add to his 3-0 head-to-head record (last meeting at Aus Open in Jan) in this one.

 

Tommy Robredo ESP (31) vs. Wayne Ferreira 1.80 RSA

- Will youth and exuberance prevail over the smart South African veteran. I don't think so. Ferreira came back from two sets down against Costa on Thursday while Robredo got past our man Meligeni also in five. I fancy the veteran in four or five, but I won't be rushing to take this price.

 

Xavier Malisse 2.30 BEL (19) vs. Roger Federer SUI (13)

- Two big servers both well suited to conditions at Flushing Meadows. Malisse has been a big improver in recent times and looks ready to step up, he has also had the more settled lead-up. Only concern is the fact that Federer has won the last four in the series, including two this year at Sydney and Indian Wells.

 

Ramon Delgado PAR vs. Andre Agassi 1.05 USA (6)

- No comment required.

 

 

FRIDAY - 2ND ROUND (-3.25 units)

 

PLAYS

 

Thomas Enqvist SWE (29) vs. Alberto Martin ESP

- Martin came out on top when these two met on a similar surface in Adelaide earlier in the year and while the stakes are higher today, I'm tipping the Spaniard to come out on top again. Enqvist has dropped off the pace slightly this year and looks well under the odds.

Martin (2.5 units at 3.20 - William Hill) -2.5

 

Sargis Sargsian ARM vs. Alexander Popp GER

- Sargsian had an impressive 1st round win over Wimbledon finalist Nalbandian, while Popp defeated the out of form Swede Vinciguerra. Sargsian looks too have too much all round game for one-dimensional Popp today.

Sargsian (5 units at 1.85 - Centrebet) +4.25

 

Ivan Ljubicic CRO vs. Sjeng Schalken NED (24)

- Schalken wasn't all that impressive before the Scud fell over, while the unpredictable Croatian had an excellent win over Santoro in the 1st round. Ljubicic almost ousted Safin here last year and does look to have taken a liking to the conditions at Flushing Meadows.

Ljubicic (5 units at 2.20 - SportsTAB) -5

 

 

Other Matches (Selections in BOLD):

 

Tim Henman 1.14 GBR (5) vs. Dick Norman BEL

- The Brit showed no signs of discomfort with the shoulder injury that kept him out of Indianapolis with a very easy win over Ketola in the 1st round. The veteran Belgian had a gutsy win over Ulihrach on Wednesday but will be completely outclassed today.

 

Michael Llodra FRA vs. Juan Ignacio Chela 1.36 ARG (26)

- Both impressed in the 1st round - Llodra only dropped five games to Acasuso while Chela knocked out the dangerous Mantilla in straight sets. If he can serve like he did on Wednesday I rate the double specialist Frenchman some chance of the upset.

 

Alex Corretja 1.12 ESP (18) vs. Ivo Heuberger SUI

- Heuberger's serve is a plus, but Corretja will get too many back, have too much experience and should win this one comfortably.

 

Raemon Sluiter NED vs. Andy Roddick 1.14 USA (11)

- The Dutchman has had big wraps put upon his by some in the tennis world, but is still too inconsistent. Nevertheless it was a great win over Dent. Roddick failed to overly impress against Verkerk in the 1st round and has come up a fraction short for mine.

 

Greg Rusedski 1.70 GBR (33) vs. Paradorn Srichaphan THA

- The Thai star showed no signs of tiredness from the heavy lead-up in his whitewash of US junior champ Amritraj in the first round. He's playing with enormous confidence right now. The Brit dropped a set to the dangerous Kim, but looks to be serving well and has justifiably come up a narrow fave. Match of the day and one to watch.

 

Kristian Pless DEN vs. Pete Sampras 1.15 USA (17)

- Pistol Pete looked comfortable enough in his 1st round win over Portas, but I'd be in no hurry to include this one in your parlays or multi's. He'll have all the crowd support in the night match, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Dane takes a set or two.

 

Karol Kucera SVK vs. Tommy Haas 1.33 GER (3)

- Haas fell in against Sanchez while Kucera took five sets to get past Stepanek in the 1st round. There has been much conjecture about the German's troublesome shoulder, but it remains to be seen just how much it is affecting his game.

 

Juan Carlos Ferrero 1.12 ESP (7) vs. Gaston Etlis ARG

- Don't like the new hair - it's hard to respect an opponent who looks like a clown - but the Spaniard played some excellent tennis to get past ace-man Arthurs in the 1st round and will have far too much here.

 

Kenneth Carlsen DEN vs. Fernando Gonzalez 1.35 CHI (28)

- Gonzalez won a tight battle with Mathieu on Wednesday while Carlsen, as predicted, had too much for Saretta in a marathon. As previously mentioned, Gonzalez has defeated the likes of Henman and Roddick on hardcourts this year, so I'm confidently predicting his big serve to get him over the line again today.

 

Jean-Rene Lisnard FRA vs. Guillermo Coria 1.36 ARG

- The Frenchman played well to qualify but had the good fortune of advancing after his opponent Schuettler went down with injury in the 1st round. Both are off their favourite surface, but Coria has the class edge and should advance.

 

Arnaud Clement FRA vs. Sebastien Grosjean 1.60 FRA (10)

- Always hard to pick when these two friend's go at it. Clement has the edge 3-2 in the head-to-head's (all on hard), the last meeting won by Grosjean at Rotterdam in February. Very tough.

 

Nicolas Massu 1.50 CHI vs. Jurgen Melzer AUT

- The Chilean had a four set win over Lapentti and did have some reasonable lead-up form, but I can't be confidently picking him at this price.

 

Gustavo Kuerten BRA vs. Marat Safin 1.58 RUS (2)

- These two always have lengthy battles when they meet - all five previous meeting have gone the distance (1-1 on hard) - but to me it's clear that Kuerten is yet to regain full match fitness.

 

 

THURSDAY - 2ND ROUND (+0.12 units)

 

PLAYS

 

Fernando Vicente ESP vs. Mardy Fish USA

- Vicente made quick work of an out of sorts Nieminen in the 1st round while Fish took out the dangerous H-T Lee in four sets. The American will have the home support and has been in some handy form of late but he's come up a little short for mine.

Vicente (4 units at 2.38 - SportingOdds) +5.52

 

Tommy Robredo ESP (31) vs. Fernando Meligeni BRA

- The Brazilian is playing some solid tennis by all accounts so I rate him some chance of an upset today. Robredo can consider himself very fortunate to get past our man Zabaleta in the first round. He won just one more point in his 5th set tie-break win after offering up a massive 22 break points. A similar performance today will have the more experienced Meligeni right in this.

Meligeni (3 units at 2.70 - Sportingbet) -3

 

Feliciano Lopez ESP vs. Gaston Gaudio ARG (21)

- Both impressed in the 1st round - Lopez over the favoured Sa in straight sets while Gaudio had too much for the aging Todd Martin. Gaudio is one of the big improvers this year and by getting into the top-20 has proved he has game off the dirt, but he's come up very short today.

Lopez (2.5 units at 3.50 - Bet365) -2.5

 

Harel Levy ISR vs. Ramon Delgado PAR

- Both of these came through in tough five setters in the 1st round - Levy upsetting Pavel while Delgado came back from two sets to one against American youngster Bogomolov Jr. The Paraguayan has to have the edge in the service department and should be a pronounced favourite in my book.

Delgado (6 units at 1.85 - Sportingbet) +5.1

 

MULTI

 

Carlos Moya 1.53 ESP (9) vs. Jan-Michael Gambill USA

- The Spaniard comes into this with a 3-0 head-to-head record (all on hard) against Gambill but all three have been tight encounters and the last meeting was back in 2000. Moya was made to work hard by Voinea in the first round but at 44-15 for the year and #5 on the champ's race, he's been playing some of the best tennis of his career. Gambill continues to disappoint in the majors and he'll need to lift his game today to be any chance.

 

Michael Chang USA vs. Roger Federer 1.25 SUI (13)

- The veteran American has been winning a few matches recently and got past our man Clavet in the 1st round despite winning seven less points overall. Federer has been is shocking form since the death of a close friend and did drop a set to Vanek in the 1st round, but one would have to think he can only improve after the run.

 

John van Lottum NED vs. Jiri Novak 1.16 CZE (14)

- The Dutchman has already equaled his best Grand Slam result in his 11th start, but Jiri Novak will get more balls back with more accuracy than his previous opponent Horna. One for the multi's.

 

(5 units at 2.22 - Sportingbet) -5

 

 

Other Matches (Selections in BOLD):

 

Justin Gimelstob USA vs. Andre Agassi 1.06 USA (6)

- Should be no problems for the man from Las Vegas today. Gimelstob, who looked thoroughly exhausted after his marathon 1st round win over Kempes, has been competitive at Challenger level in recent times but this will be difficult to say the least.

 

Lleyton Hewitt 1.05 AUS (1) vs. Noam Okun ISR

- The qualifier Okun didn't have it all his own way when defeating Kunitcin in the first round, so I'll be surprised if he wins more than a handful of games today. Hewitt was not all that impressive in his opener, but there's no point peaking on the first Tuesday.

 

Yevgeny Kafelnikov RUS (4) vs. Dominik Hrbaty 3.15 SVK

- Hrbaty was making tough work of the young Ancic before he retired in the 1st round, while Kafelnikov dropped a set to Sanguinetti in an unconvincing error riddled performance. Hrbaty leads the head-to-head series 7-4, but has dropped the last three meetings, the most recent at Wimbledon. Should be a tight encounter but 2's or better about the Slovakian is good enough for me.

 

Xavier Malisse 1.38 BEL (19) vs. Vincent Spadea USA

- The first round saw Malisse make light work of Montanes while Spadea came from two sets down against Golmard. The Belgian had a comfortable straight sets win when these two met at the All England Club and should use his new found maturity to ease past the inconsistent American again.

 

Marcelo Rios 1.20 CHI (22) vs. Robin Soderling SWE

- Don't know much about him, but the 18 year-old Swede is raising eyebrows after defeating two seeds in Suzuki and Voltchkov in qualifying and then comfortably disposing of Lars Burgsmuller in the 1st round here. Rios however was impressive after an early lapse against Bjorkman and should have the youngsters measure.

 

Wayne Ferreira 1.80 RSA vs. Albert Costa ESP (8)

- Both progressed comfortably through the 1st round and both have already met twice this year on hardcourts, Ferreira having the better of both meetings - in a five set marathon at the Aussie Open and more recently on the slower courts of Cincinnati. Books look to have this one about right - expect it to go the distance.

 

Hicham Arazi MAR vs. Younes El Aynaoui 1.42 MAR (20)

- Amazingly, the Moroccan's meet for the first time on the ATP Tour. Arazi had an easy win over the out of form Rochus in the 1st round while El Aynaoui failed to have his serve broken in a four-set win over Morrison. You can never discount the gutsy Arazi in best of five, but Younes has lifted his game to a new level this year and should advance.

 

Anthony Dupuis 3.60 FRA vs. Max Mirnyi BLR (32)

- Both had opponents retiring in the 1st round, Gaudenzi throwing in the towel when well down against Dupuis, while Savolt had lost two tight sets to Mirnyi before his elbow gave him trouble. Dupuis hasn't done much in recent times, but Max is relying on his 1st serve a lot and is not in the greatest form coming into this week. This price looks well over the odds.

 

 

WEDNESDAY - 1ST ROUND (-16 units)

 

PLAYS

 

Felix Mantilla ESP vs. Juan Ignacio Chela ARG (26)

- This is an interesting one. Chela has had a great year to date with a current race position of 18 (from 177 in '01) and winning one of three ATP finals - his most recent last week's loss to Srichaphan at Long Island. They say winning form is good form, but Mantilla has been in some handy form of his own (l. Indy final to Rusedski) and does look capable of a minor upset today.

Mantilla (4 units at 2.25 - Centrebet; Sportodds) -4

 

Karol Kucera SVK vs. Radek Stepanek CZE

- Stepanek is at an impressive 15-8 for 2002 and has lifted his ranking over 200 spots to #56. He looks to be playing well on all surfaces and notched up wins against A Kim and Spadea at Toronto on top of some good court time in the doubles with partner Novak. Kucera has failed to defeat anyone of note in recent times, so this will be tough.

Stepanek (5 units at 2.00 - SportingOdds) -5

 

Stefan Koubek AUT vs. Arnaud Clement FRA

- The Frenchman has impressive 10-4 record at Flushing Meadows and has picked up his form as the year has gone on, but suffered a shocking 0 & 2 loss to El Aynaoui last week at Long Island. Koubek meanwhile, has been competitive all year dating back to his strong Aussie Open in January and definitely has the game to trouble the inconsistent Clement.

Koubek (3 units at 2.45 - Sportodds; SportsTAB) -3

 

MULTI

 

Paul-Henri Mathieu FRA vs. Fernando Gonzalez 1.48 CHI (28)

- The 20 year-old Frenchman has thrust himself into the spotlight recently after pushing Agassi to five sets in the 4th round of the French Open and more recently with a win over Sampras last week at Long Island. He withdrew from his quarter final match with Corretja last week citing blisters, but faces a very tough opponent here. Gonzalez, one of the new breed of South Americans with huge ability off the dirt, has defeated the likes of Henman and Roddick on hardcourts this year and will be too good today.

 

Marc Rosset SUI vs. Sebastien Grosjean 1.18 FRA (10)

- The lanky Swiss veteran hasn't bothered to play any hardcourt lead-up tourneys and while Grosjean hasn't played well here in the past, he'll win this one.

 

David Nalbandian 1.28 ARG (16) vs. Sargis Sargsian ARM

- The Argentinean shot to fame with a runner-up at Wimbledon, but with solid form prior and a win against Henman in Toronto last month looks more than a one-tournament wonder. Sargsian has struggled since returning to the tour from minor surgery.

 

Nikolay Davydenko RUS vs. James Blake 1.14 USA (25) (2nd Rnd) ?

- The American is playing some great tennis at the moment and will certainly take some stopping in this late evening encounter.

 

(4 units at 2.55 - Sportodds) -4

 

 

Other Matches (Selections in BOLD):

 

Tim Henman 1.12 GBR (5) vs. Tuomas Ketola FIN

- Ketola came through qualifying with wins over Bob Bryan and Carraz and a thrashing of the youngster Ancic. Concern over the Brit's fitness (shoulder at Indianapolis) is enough for me to leave this one alone.

 

Dick Norman 2.45 BEL vs. Bohdan Ulihrach CZE

- The Belgian veteran took out the #1 seed Burgsmuller in qualifying to make it into his first US Open and first Slam since the 1997 French. He has won three challengers this year - each on a different surface. Ulihrach, ranked about 150 places higher in the rankings, got a few matches under his belt at Long Island last week after five consecutive 1st round exits, but looks a shade under the odds today.

 

Michael Llodra 1.70 FRA vs. Jose Acasuso ARG

- The Frenchman, who devotes a lot of his time to doubles action, is in his first singles draw US Open. The 19 year-old Argentinean Acasuso looks to be still developing his game for the faster surface and is clearly yet to prove himself off the dirt. No question the Frenchman has the ability to win this, but mental lapses in the past have been his nemesis.

 

Greg Rusedski 1.15 GBR (33) vs. Alex Kim USA

- The Brit is one of the dark horses here this week at around the 50/1 mark. An impressive lead-up with wins over Safin, Haas and Hewitt on his way to the Indianapolis title will have him in fine fettle for this. The wildcard Alex Kim has produced the shock upset before - he beat Kafelnikov in straight set at the Aussie Open earlier in the year - but this will be tougher.

 

Paradorn Srichaphan 1.07 THA vs. Prakash Amritraj USA

- The Thai number one is on quite a roll at the moment - following up a final at Washington with a debut win at Long Island last week. I've been a fan since Jan this year and we've profited greatly, but I can't help thinking he may be physically spent after two big weeks. He has been working very hard on his game and fitness all year, but the 18 year-old Amritraj is the current U.S. Junior national champion, so he can't be taken lightly.
 

Eric Taino USA vs. Kristian Pless 1.62 DEN

- Taino got through qualifying nicely and does have some decent form off the hardcourt challengers this year. Pless has lost a lot more than he's won this year, but is expected to have too much game for the Yank.

 

Albert Portas ESP vs. Pete Sampras 1.12 USA (17)

- Peter says he can still win a Grand Slam, but really there's no hope. The rate of decline in the champ's game is surprising all, but surely he'll be able to win this one. Portas did win a few matches here last year, but has skipped all the hardcourt lead-up tourneys this time around.

 

David Sanchez ESP vs. Tommy Haas 1.12 GER (3)

- The Spaniard is 0-6 in Slams excluding Roland Garros and despite some solid clay form, he's yet to prove capable on the faster surfaces. The only concern surrounds the German's fitness - he withdrew from his semi against Srichaphan at Long Island last week citing the troublesome shoulder.


Kenneth Carlsen 2.25DEN vs. Flavio Saretta BRA

- The Brazilian Saretta has lifted his game in the last year but it must be said that his hardcourt experience at this level is very limited. Carlsen on the other hand, is a veteran of eight U.S. Open's and while he had a disappointing loss to Gimelstob last week at Long Island, does look capable of the upset here.

 

Alexander Popp 1.55 GER vs. Andreas Vinciguerra SWE

- The German struggles to perform at ATP level, but up against a Swede who is 1-9 on the tour and has not been past the 1st round of a tournament since the Aussie Open, this should be easier.

 

 

TUESDAY - 1ST ROUND (-4 units)

 

PLAYS

 

Tommy Robredo ESP (31) vs. Mariano Zabaleta ARG

- Robredo reached the 4th round in his debut U.S. Open appearance last year with wins against T Martin and Ferrero, but his form in the lead-up to this is nothing to write home about in my book. Wins over Schuettler, T Martin and Rusedski have all taken three sets. Mariano Zabaleta is recognised as a clay courter, but will have very fond memories of Flushing Meadows after defeating Grosjean, Dent, Rusedski and Malisse on the way to the quarters here last year.

Zabaleta (4 units at 2.75 - SportingOdds) -4

 

Mark Philippoussis AUS vs. Sjeng Schalken NED (24)

- The Dutchman hasn't done a lot this year, except for an excellent grass season. The big-serving Aussie has a big 5-2 head-to-head advantage (inc. an 0 & 3 win in Adelaide this year) over Schalken. Recent form suggests the Scud is still a long way off the form that saw him runner-up in '98, but I do like his chances today.

Philippoussis (5 units at 1.83 - William Hill) Void (Ret.)

 

Hyung-Taik Lee KOR vs. Mardy Fish USA

- I'm a big fan of both of these. Mardy Fish is riding high at the moment - he backed up his Challenger win at Bronx with a quarter final at Long Island last week where he was outplayed by Chela. Lee has had losses to Roddick, Sampras, Nieminen and Arthurs in the last month - nothing too concerning, but I would have liked to have seen a few more wins under the belt. He made it to the fourth round here in 2000, so I'm leaning towards the experience here.

Lee (4 units at 2.10 - Centrebet) -4

 

Fabrice Santoro FRA vs. Ivan Ljubicic CRO

- Ljubicic remains a recognised talent but is plagued by inconsistency as evidenced with a loss to Verkerk last start in Indianapolis. Santoro has solid form in the lead-up and should be able to use his experience to advantage in this one.

Santoro (5 units at 1.90 - Sportingbet) -5

 

Alexander Waske GER vs. Guillermo Coria ARG

- Waske failed to drop a set through qualifying inc. a win in the 3rd round against Magnus Larsson. He won a challenger on a hardcourt back in April and must be rated a huge chance of an upset in his first U.S. Open match.

Waske (2.5 units at 3.20 - Sportingbet) -2.5

 

Alberto Martin ESP vs. Michel Kratochvil SUI

- Alberto has never been past the 1st round in three attempts in New York (l. to Pless, Novak and Kafelnikov), but is more than capable of the odd surprise on the hardcourts.

Martin (4 units at 2.10 - Bet365) +4.4

 

MULTI

 

Igor Kunitcin RUS vs. Noam Okun 1.47 ISR

- Two qualifiers meet here. The Russian came through with a win over Christophe Rochus in the 1st round while Okun defeated Bachelot in his third match. More experience at this level will get Okun home in this one.

 

Ivo Heuberger 1.38 SUI vs. Slimane Saoudi FRA

- The Frenchman got through three tight qualies to make it to his 1st Grand Slam main draw. Heuberger, also though qualifying, made the final of the recent hardcourt challenger at Wrexham and will have far too much today.

 

Xavier Malisse 1.20 BEL (19) vs. Albert Montanes ESP

- Montanes is yet to fully develop his game to be a threat off the dirt. Expect the Belgian to have the edge in experience - he reached the 4th round at Flushing Meadows last year with a win against Henman and has been solid if not overly impressive in recent times, going 5-4 on the hardcourts since Wimbledon.

 

Martin Verkerk NED vs. Andy Roddick 1.14 USA (11)

- Verkerk won a few matches against Popp and Ljubicic at Indianapolis before a tight straight sets loss to Rusedski but is certain be a little overwhelmed meeting Andy Roddick in his 1st Grand Slam match.

 

(4 units at 2.78 - Sportodds) +7.12

 

 

Other Matches (Selections in BOLD):

 

Nicolas Kiefer GER vs. Marat Safin 1.33 RUS (2)

- Not the easiest opener for the inconsistent Russian so I wouldn't be rushing to thrown this one into your multi's and parlays. Kiefer looks to have run into some form in recent times after a horror start to the year, but it's hard to go against the 2000 winner.

 

Lleyton Hewitt 1.04 AUS (1) vs. Nicolas Coutelot FRA

- The Frenchman plays his first hardcourt match of the year. Good luck mate.

 

Julien Boutter 2.50 FRA vs. Gustavo Kuerten BRA

- Boutter has been competitive in losses to Moya, Malisse and Gambill in the lead-up while Guga, hampered by injury, has been very ordinary with 1st round losses in the two main lead-up tourney's. The Frenchman does hold a 2-0 head-to-head record, and many will remember I was on the Frenchman at big odds in the 1st round of the Aus Open this year.

 

Taylor Dent 1.40 USA vs. Raemon Sluiter NED

- The Dutchman has been disappointing of late with losses to Kucera and Massu in the lead-up. Dent on the other hand, has broken into the top-50 in the Champion's race after claiming his first title on the grass of Newport. His lead-up has been mixed - wins over Mantilla, Johansson and Rios but losses to Novak, Ferrero and Malisse - but the big serve should be enough for a win.

 

Jan-Michael Gambill 1.18 USA vs. Julian Knowle AUT

- The Austrian has a serve that can do some damage on this surface so the American will have to make sure he doesn't take this one too lightly. In fact Gambill has been nothing short of a major disappointment in Grand Slams of late, something I'm sure he will be keen to rectify - it's one thing to make the final of LA, it's another to perform when it matters in the big ones.

 

Alex Corretja 1.16 ESP (18) vs. Irakli Labadze GEO

- Labadze is playing his 1st US Open and despite a poor lead-up, it's worth noting that he did defeat Srichaphan in a hardcourt (indoor) challenger final in January. Corretja meanwhile is playing some of the best tennis of the career at the moment. His solid lead-up and clear edge in experience will be too much today.

 

Juan Carlos Ferrero 1.50 ESP (7) vs. Wayne Arthurs AUS

- The big-serving Aussie has notched up wins against Okun, Sampras, Robredo and H-T Lee in the lead-up following his excellent grass season, but still relies too much on the serve. Ferrero beat him 6-4 7-6 in Cincinnati three weeks ago and given the all round strengths of the Spaniard it's hard to envisage a different outcome today.

 

Agustin Calleri 1.77 ARG vs. Fernando Meligeni BRA

- The Argentinean had a win over Spadea in his only hardcourt lead-up at Long Island before losing to Haas in three sets. He has the game to win plenty of matches on the hardcourt. Apart from a surprise quarter final and win over Roddick in Washington a fortnight ago, the veteran Meligeni, in his 11th appearance in NY, has done very little off the dirt in recent times.

 

Nicolas Lapentti 1.60 ECU (27) vs. Nicolas Massu CHI

- Lapentti, coming off a quarter final appearance at Wimbledon, has tight losses to Roddick, Costa and Srichaphan in his three lead-up event, but did have a win against Gaudio. Massu had a win against an out of sorts Federer last week, but his best results are usually on the clay.

 

Carlos Moya 1.16 ESP (9) vs. Adrian Voinea ROM

- Moya is having one of his best years on the ATP tour, but it's fair to say that, despite his title win at Cincinnati, that the majority of the points are still gained on the dirt. Having said that, his U.S. Open record is quite a healthy one. Voinea has played some of his best tennis this year on the hardcourts, so don't discount him taking a set or two today.

 

Thomas Enqvist 1.06 SWE (29) vs. Matias Boeker USA

- Don't know much about Boeker, but ranked #348 and in his first Grand Slam tourney will find this very tough. Slight injury concern over the Swede having w/d from Long Island with a "rotator cuff".

 

Jarkko Nieminen 1.40 FIN (34) vs. Fernando Vicente ESP

- The Finn is a very promising type who has burst onto the main tour this year and looks well suited to the hardcourts. Three set losses to the likes of Haas and Hewitt in the lead up give some indication of where he's at. Vicente is capable off the dirt, but form of late - losses to Chang and Burgsmuller - leaves a little to be desired.

 

Jerome Golmard FRA vs. Vincent Spadea 1.90 USA

- H-H 0-2 on Hard. Spadea stands at 6-11 on the main tour in '02 but has been very solid in the challengers, inc. a hardcourt win in March. Golmard has played sparingly this year - he's had wins against Gambill and Chang at Washington and a loss to Morrison last week at Long Island in his lead-up. No confidence about this one.

 

Jurgen Melzer AUT vs. Jack Brasington 1.83 USA

- Tough match-up, but the Yank looks to have a far superior hard court pedigree and did take a set off Roddick in the 2nd round here last year.

 

Rainer Schuettler 1.18 GER (23) vs. Jean-Rene Lisnard FRA

- The German is having one of his best years on the tour and recent form is very solid. The Frenchman beat Simoni to qualify for his first main draw U.S. Open but this won't be easy.

 

Gaston Etlis 1.75 ARG vs. Bjorn Rehnquist SWE

- Two qualifiers both in their first main draw singles US Open. The Argentinean looks to have done it easier in the qualies, but I'm not up to speed on these two.

 

 

MONDAY - 1ST ROUND (-9.8 units)

 

PLAYS

 

Yevgeny Kafelnikov RUS (4) vs. Davide Sanguinetti ITA

- Kafelnikov looked to have put his horror stretch behind him with a grass court title at Halle, but first up losses to Schuettler and Ancic in the his last two hard court lead-up events is hardly the ideal preparation for this. Still, you have to go back 16 Grand Slam tourney's since the Russian has gone out in the 1st round (Wimbledon '98) and it's just 2 from 33 over his career. Sanguinetti has played well on U.S. hardcourts before - he was runner-up at Memphis in '01 and defeated Roddick to win Delray Beach in March.

Sanguinetti (2 units at 3.75 - Sportingbet) -2

 

Michael Chang USA vs. Francisco Clavet ESP

- A battle of the two veterans. Chang has shown some sort of form of late with a shock win over Haas at Cincinnati and a win over Martin Lee at Washington, but remains well and truly on the decline. The Spaniard Clavet defeated Phau and then had a tight loss to Pavel at Indianapolis, but looks to have the edge on this surface.

Clavet (4 units at 2.25 - Bet365) -4

 

Mario Ancic CRO vs. Dominik Hrbaty SVK

- The big-serving 18-year old Croatian has defeated Federer (Wimbledon) and Kafelnikov (Indianapolis) in recent times. He makes it into the main draw as a lucky loser - he had wins over Brits Delgado and Lee and then a terrible loss to the Finn Ketola in the qualies. Hrbaty has a solid US Open record and will give 100%, but this does look a big danger match.

Ancic (4 units at 2.10 - Bet365) -4

 

Todd Martin USA vs. Gaston Gaudio ARG (21)

- The veteran Yank won't find this easy up against the young Argentinean. Martin has not been in the greatest of form in the last month - losses to Santoro, Robredo and Alex Kim since Wimbledon doesn't look all that flash. While Gaudio has never been past the 1st round in three attempts (l. to Mirnyi, Clement and Lareau), he has improved his game immeasurably over the past 12 months.

Gaudio (4 units at 2.30 - Centrebet) +5.2

 

MULTI

 

Marcelo Rios 1.44 CHI (22) vs. Jonas Bjorkman SWE

- The Swede, yet to win a match since taking the Nottingham title on grass in June, looks a long way off showing the sort of form that got his year off to such a great start to the year in Australia. Rios has a nice preparation for this with four solid matches in Washington to go with his very solid hardcourt form from earlier in the year.

 

Jarkko Nieminen 1.40 FIN (34) vs. Fernando Vicente ESP (Tues)

- The Finn is a very promising type who has burst onto the main tour this year and looks well suited to the hardcourts. Three set losses to the likes of Haas and Hewitt in the lead up give some indication of where he's at. Vicente is capable off the dirt, but form of late - losses to Chang and Burgsmuller - leaves a little to be desired.

 

Xavier Malisse 1.16 BEL (19) vs. Albert Montanes ESP (Tues)

- Montanes is yet to fully develop his game to be a threat off the dirt. Expect the Belgian to have the edge in experience - he reached the 4th round at Flushing Meadows last year with a win against Henman and has been solid if not overly impressive in recent times, going 5-4 on the hardcourts since Wimbledon.

 

Andrei Pavel 1.16 ROM (30) vs. Harel Levy ISR

- No problems here for the Romanian.

 

(5 units at 2.72 - Bet365) -5

 

 

Other Matches (Selections in BOLD):

 

Nikolay Davydenko 1.40 RUS vs. Radoslav Lukaev BUL

- The young Belarusian got through qualies without dropping a set to make his ATP Tour debut at the US Open. Davydenko prefers the dirt but should have too much experience today.

 

Brian Vahaly USA vs. James Blake 1.12 USA (25)

- Blake comes off an exceptional debut win last start in Washington and has reached the second round of his last four Grand Slam tourney's. Don't expect a walk in the park - Vahaly is a three-time All-American at the University of Virginia who has won three USTA Professional Circuit/Challenger events on the hardcourt in 2002.

 

Lars Burgsmuller 1.50 GER vs. Robin Soderling SWE

- The Swede impressed in qualifying by taking out two seeds in Suzuki and Voltchkov while Burgsmuller gets a spot as a lucky loser after going down to the in form veteran Belgian Dick Norman. The German had a couple of solid wins against Godwin and Vicente in Washington after a win at the Wrexham Challenger (hard).

 

Luis Horna 2.00 PER vs. John van Lottum NED

- The Dutchman has been past the first round in just one of his last ten Grand Slam tourney's - the 1999 US Open. He failed to drop a set against questionable opposition in qualifying but is just 1-6 on hardcourts this year. Horna on the other hand, has won three clay challengers since May but more importantly, won matches against Alberto Martin and Schalken before a tight loss to Safin at the TMS Miami (hard) in March.

 

Richard Krajicek NED vs. Jiri Novak 2.00 CZE (14)

- Very tough to pick. Krajicek came out on top in a recent meeting at Cincinatti and continues to impress in his comeback with a tight loss to El Aynaoui last week at Long Island. Novak has a semi final appearance at the TMS Toronto as his best lead-up result and might be too good over the five-sets, but I'll be leaving this one alone.

 

Olivier Rochus BEL vs. Hicham Arazi 1.83 MAR

- Olivier Rochus has struggled big time since his big win over Safin at Wimbledon, only winning two of fifteen sets of tennis on the main tour with losses to the likes of Sa, Galvani, Vicente and Fish. He has failed to pass the first round here in two prior appearances. The gutsy Moroccan Arazi has made it to the 3rd round for the last three years, and while short on match-play in the last month, should be able to build on his 2-0 record over Rochus.

 

Jeff Morrison USA vs. Younes El Aynaoui 1.28 MAR (20)

- The Yank was riding high in June, winning a grass challenger and defeating Ferrero on the way to a 3rd round at Wimbledon, but has fallen back to earth since with lead-up losses to Vicente, Pavel and Chela. El Aynaoui has never played his best at the US Open and recent form prior to last weeks quarter final at Long Island suggests this price is slightly unders.

 

Jan Vacek CZE vs. Wayne Ferreira 1.35 RSA

- The Czech had a great Wimbledon but has mostly struggled since. The South African is not getting any younger and has be known to prolong matches he should finish off more quickly, but look for him to do this one fairly comfortably.

 

Magnus Norman SWE vs. Albert Costa 1.50 ESP (8)

- It must be said that the French Open champ has hardly impressed since his win at Roland Garros. His hardcourt lead-up comprises a loss to Spadea at Toronto and a three set win over Lapentti and loss to Ferreira at Cincinnati. Norman has been improving slowly since his return to the tour - despite a 1st round loss to Spadea last week at Long Island, he has been competitive against the likes of Gambill and Haas in the lead-up.

 

Andrea Gaudenzi 2.10 ITA vs. Anthony Dupuis FRA

- Very, very tough to pick! This one is just too hard, slight lean towards the Italian.

 

Attila Savolt HUN vs. Max Mirnyi 1.25 BLR (32)

- Mirnyi is yet to live up to all the wraps placed upon him by Bolleteri and co. - only a tournament win will change this. He has wins over Srichaphan and Mathieu in the last month but has also lost to Kiefer twice. Some doubt surrounds Savolt's fitness after he withdrew from his 2nd round match with Bjorkman at Long Island last week citing an elbow strain, so you'd have to go with Max.

 

Jiri Vanek CZE vs. Roger Federer 1.16 SUI (13)

- Federer has been in dreadful form dating back to his shock loss to Ancic at Wimbledon. The tragic death of his one-time Swiss coach has not made things any easier, but this will surely be a formality.

 

Andre Sa 1.62 BRA vs. Feliciano Lopez ESP

- Lopez had a quick loss to Ulihrach in the 1st round of Long Island last week and to Roux at Indianapolis, but his U.S. hardcourt form from March (win vs Malisse) is okay. Having said that, Sa has had his measure (2-0) in recent times - the last win at Wimbledon, where he reached the quarters.

 

Alex Bogomolov Jr. USA vs. Ramon Delgado 1.67 PAR

- Delgado had a win against Sa last week at Long Island and despite going out in the 1st round of his prior four events, he was competitive on all of them. The 19 year-old Yank gets in with a wildcard and despite a win against Haas a month ago in LA, has not really shown enough at Challenger level for mine.

 

Justin Gimelstob 1.60 USA vs. Edwin Kempes NED

- You know what they say about taking a bad player against another bad player! The Dutchman Kempes has come through qualies, while Gimelstob has the wildcard. The American has been therabouts this year on the USTA circuit and probably deserves favouritsm, but I'll leave this one alone.

 

Robby Ginepri USA vs. Andre Agassi 1.03 USA (6)

- Providing he's fit, expect Andre to make very light work of this one. As evidenced against Hewitt (double bagel) Ginepri looks to be seriously troubled by back court power.

 

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