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Tuesday February 7, 2012 -


TENNIS

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AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS
... with OnThePunt's resident ATP expert


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Time Check. 1100 Melbourne = 1100 AEDT; 0000 GMT; 1900 US ET


SELECTIONS ARCHIVE

 

2004 AUSTRALIAN OPEN - MEN'S FINAL - SUNDAY 1st FEBRUARY
Roger Federer vs Marat Safin No Play - -
Should be a most competitive final, but it’s hard to go past Roger Federer. The Swiss could hardly have been more impressive in getting past the likes of Hewitt, Nalbandian and Ferrero in his last three matches. Marat Safin is serving very well, but it must be noted that he advances to the final having lost 129 games – the most of any player to advance to a Grand Slam final in the Open Era. Cool conditions and even a possible indoor staging of the match will be of assistance, but the reality is that the Russian has spent over eight hours more on court and all of his last four matches have lasted in excess of three hours. So, should the game go the distance, one has to favour Federer to come out on top.

However, as strange as it sounds, it appears that at this point in time, Safin is the more mentally stable player. He has the memory of his shocking loss to Thomas Johansson here back in ‘02 to overcome, but he is playing with great confidence. Federer has just secured the world number one crown for the first time, and while that is unlikely to have a major impact, now might be the time when traveling without the mental assistance of a coach might prove costly.

 

2004 AUSTRALIAN OPEN - QUARTER FINALS - WEDNESDAY 28th JAN
David Nalbandian to bt Roger Federer 2 at 2.50 Canbet -2
The history between these two appears to be quite significant. Nalbandian leads the six match series 5-1 - including a five set win in the round of 16 here last year - but it must be noted that the last meeting went to Federer in a 3 & 0 toweling at the Masters Cup in November. Nalbandian has looked most impressive at Kooyong and here at Melbourne Park when dropping only 29 games in his four matches. The match-up in a best-of-five scenario looks to suit the Argentinean - Federer is not the greatest fighter going around while Nalbandian will fight right to the death. The only doubt concerns the possibility of a night match under the closed roof which may favour the Swiss slightly.

2004 AUSTRALIAN OPEN - FOURTH ROUND - MONDAY 26th JANUARY
Lleyton Hewitt to bt Roger Federer 2.5 at 2.34 Pinnacle -2.5
Federer has looked sharp against a couple of qualifiers and the exhausted youngster Reid and while you can only beat who is served up, this will be a massive test. Hewitt has looked indifferent himself at times but his record against Federer (7-2, including the last three) and the vocal Australia Day crowd will give him great confidence.

 

2004 AUSTRALIAN OPEN - THIRD ROUND - SATURDAY 24th JANUARY
Guillermo Canas to bt Tim Henman 1.5 at 3.3 Canbet +3.45
Canas has run into some very handy form since returning from injury. Henman will find himself playing plenty of balls today, and with such different styles of play on exhibition, the 3-1 head-to-head record appears significant. Their last meeting was three years ago and all matches have been tight, so at the odds, I'm happy to be on the Argentinean.
Andrei Pavel to bt Jiri Novak 2 at 2.4 Canbet +2.8
This is Jiri Novak's first real test in Melbourne. Wins against Olivier Rochus and Vacek were comfortable enough, but the Czech is not getting nay younger and will need to lift his game a notch or two today. Pavel has looked very impressive here and has posted a win in each of the last two meetings between these two.

 

2004 AUSTRALIAN OPEN - THIRD ROUND - FRIDAY 23rd JANUARY
Jurgen Melzer to bt Sjeng Schalken 1 at 4.40 Pinnacle -1
Schalken arrived at Melbourne Park with a 3-7 record and has reached the third round for the first time. The Dutchman has done what he had to against Carlsen and Ferrer, but this will be significantly tougher. Melzer is a much improved player and in dealing with Behrend and Blanco with relative ease, has looked very sharp.
Dominik Hrbaty to bt S Grosjean 2.5 at 2.40 Sportingbet -2.5
Hrbaty made it 12-0 for the year with his straight sets win over Gaudio on Wednesday. Some might suggest that tiredness or fatigue will have an impact, but I'm not so sure. The guy is fit, and as they say, winning form is good form. The Frenchman has looked impressive here, but as is often the case, he can come out the next match looking quite ordinary.
Multi 2 at 2.86 Canbet -2

Andy Roddick to bt Taylor Dent

If Chela can break Dent all of ten times, this will be tough.

 

Marat Safin to bt Todd Martin

Can't be too quick to write off the veteran, but class should prevail.

 

Andre Agassi to bt Thomas Enqvist

Hard to see the Swede matching it from the back. Head-to-head is encouraging, but double-a will take some beating here.

 

Nicolas Escude to bt Robby Ginepri

The Frenchman looks to be in a different class. He has a smarter head and too much all round game.

 

2004 AUSTRALIAN OPEN - SECOND ROUND - THURSDAY 22nd JANUARY
Filippo Volandri to bt J-C Ferrero 0.5 at 11 Pinnacle -0.5
Ferrero only surrendered one game against Montanes in the first round, but it's not necessarily the best preparation for this. Volandri has been in very good form and at his best will push Ferrero for extended periods. Very big price.
Guillermo Canas to bt Agustin Calleri 3 at 2.05 Sportodds +3.15
Canas has showed signs of getting back to his best since returning from injury. He looked very sharp in his first round win over talented French qualifier De Chaunac. Calleri wasn't all that impressive against Christophe Rochus and if this goes the distance, it must be noted that his five set record (0-6) is dreadful.
Karol Kucera to bt Lleyton Hewitt 0.5 at 7 SptingOdds -0.5
These two meet for the third time in three weeks. Hewitt has taken both meetings, at the Hopman Cup in three and straight sets in Sydney, but I have the feeling things won't be all plain sailing for the fiery Aussie today. If Kucera gets off to a good start, then the pressure will pile on Hewitt and we'll see how well he copes.
Todd Reid to bt Sargis Sargsian 2.5 at 2.25 Sportodds +3.13
The young Aussie wont have things all his own way today, but this looks a most generous price. Both impressed in the first round, Reid in straight sets over Kutsenko and Sargsian likewise over a flat Bjorkman. The calm conditions of Vodafone arena should suit.
Multi 1.5 at 3.43 Canbet +3.64

Jiri Novak 1.18 to bt Jan Vacek

Vacek came out on top on grass and clay last year, but I can't see him getting too close today.

 

Andrei Pavel 1.22 to bt Glenn Weiner

Weiner can hammer the serve, but his all-round game or lack thereof will prove his downfall today.

 

David Nalbandian 1.04 to bt Florian Mayer

Bandy looks to terrific form and will have few problems in this mismatch.

 

Rafael Nadal 1.53 to bt Thierry Ascione

The Frenchman Ascione is a promising type, but he's not in Nadal's league quite yet.

 

Albert Costa 1.50 to bt Wayne Arthurs

Arthurs battled on in the first round, but assuming the Spaniard is fit, this should be relatively comfortable.

2004 AUSTRALIAN OPEN - SECOND ROUND - WEDNESDAY 21st JANUARY
Jarkko Nieminen to bt Marat Safin 2 at 2.75 Pinnacle -2
The Russian will have to lift his game today. His first round effort against Vahaly was scratchy to say the least. His Hopman Cup form was good, but Grand Slams are another story. Nieminen will make Safin work very hard for his money toady and it would be no surprise to see this go the distance and if it does, I want to be on the Finn.
Olivier Patience to bt N Davydenko 1.5 at 3.2 SportsTAB +3.3
Both of these came back from two sets to love down in the first round only finished off their opponents very well, only dropping three games each in the final two sets. Patience failed to drop a set in the quallies and comes in with a win over the highly rated Andreev. The Frenchman is certainly a fighter, so this is another that could well go the distance. As previously mentioned, Davydenko has not been in the greatest form of late so he looks a good risk today.
Karol Beck to bt Thomas Enqvist 3 at 2.05 Pinnacle -3
As previously mentioned here, Beck has lifted his game a notch or two in recent times. I need a little more than a tight win over Spadea to be convinced that Enqvist has turned the corner. He is sure to have a stadium full of rowdy Swedes, but Beck has used crowds to his advantage before and will be highly motivated today.
Ivan Ljubicic to bt Gustavo Kuerten 4 at 1.83 SptingOdds -4
Ivan Ljubicic put in a solid performance against the highly rated Tursunov on Monday while Kuerten was fortunate a cramping Van Lottom ran out of puff. The relatively windless confines of the Vodafone Arena - incidentally where Guga was knocked out by Stepanek last year - should assist Ljubicic and his big serve.
Multi 2 at 2.58 SportsTAB +3.16

Jurgen Melzer 1.42 to bt Galo Blanco

Price is short enough, but in a different class at the moment.

 

Sjeng Schalken 1.18 to bt David Ferrer

Should prove far too strong.

 

Sebastien Grosjean 1.16 to bt Jan-Michael Gambill

Again, you would not want to be taking much shorter, but Gambill struggles when he meets some more highly rated opposition.

 

Nicolas Escude 1.33 to bt Robin Soderling

A fit Escude will cause anyone plenty of problems. Soderling made everything towards the end of his match with Schuettler but out in the elements today will find it tougher.

 

2004 AUSTRALIAN OPEN - FIRST ROUND - TUESDAY 20th JANUARY
Roko Karanusic to bt Wayne Arthurs 2.5 at 2.40 Sportingbet -2.5
Karanusic dropped a set in each of his three qualifying matches, but as they say winning form in good form. His record last year was very solid indeed. On the other hand, Wayne Arthurs is in some of the worst form of his career, especially on the singles court. His performance against Verkerk in Sydney was dreadful. Hot conditions will give Arthurs an edge, but he needs a huge form reversal to be any show for mine.
Alex Corretja to bt Martin Verkerk 2 at 2.71 Pinnacle +3.42
Again, the warmer weather is expected to favour the big server, but Corretja has the experience to trouble the Dutchman. Let's not forget that Verkerk is just 1-4 at Slams excluding the French, so he is yet to fully prove himself at this level. The Spaniard put Kuerten to the test last week in Auckland and won't give in today without a fight.
Mario Ancic to bt Raemon Sluiter 3 at 2.00 SptingOdds +3
Another big server involved here and one would expect hot conditions to favour the Croatian. Sluiter has been is reasonable form of late, beating the likes of Sanchez, Gonzalez and Canas, but his record here is poor. Ancic is well suited, has defeated Sluiter in their only meeting and will have fond memories of this fourth round appearance here last year.
Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo to bt J Vacek 3 at 2.10 SptingOdds -3
On most recent form, the Spaniard should be starting a favourite here. Vacek was dreadful against Golmard in the final round of qualifying and he boasts a very ordinary 3-8 Grand Slam record. Ramirez beat Enqvist at Sydney quallies before taking Philippoussis to three. He has very little hardcourt form to go on but that is just because he has not been playing on the surface.
Andrei Pavel to bt Max Mirnyi 1.5 at 3.00 Pinnacle +3
The Romanian is always a threat when fully fit. He had a narrow loss to Hemmes Jr in Auckland qualifying last week, but will be very eager to do well here. Mirnyi is very hard to predict, but it must be said his record here is also indifferent. A narrow loss to Verkerk last week is no disgrace, but he'll have to be on the ball today.
Flippo Volandri to bt Nicolas Kiefer 2 at 2.70 Pinnacle +3.4
Volandri is 0-3 at the Slams and has limited experience on hardcourts, but he still looks right in this. He posted a three set loss to Calleri in Doha and then teamed up with the Argentinean for three solid doubles matches in Sydney and has been practising very well. Kiefer has started the season with two straight losses so with confidence at a low, the Italian looks a big chance.
Albert Martin to bt Feliciano Lopez 2 at 2.63 SptingOdds +3.26
Lopez is recognised as a most talented player but his form of late has left a little to be desired. Martin is a most consistent type who looks well suited here. If the Lopez serve goes missing at all, then Martin will certainly be ready to take full advantage.
Multi 1 at 3.54 SptingOdds +2.54

Hicham Arazi 1.25 to bt Olivier Mutis

Practising very well, too much hardcourt experience.

 

Guillermo Canas 1.17 to bt Sebastien De Chaunac

Canas started the year fairly well, in a different class.

 

Jeff Morrison 1.73 to bt Dennis Van Scheppingen

Morrison is in some excelent form of his own with three comfortable qualifying wins while van Scheppingen likes it faster.

 

Fabrice Santoro 1.40 to bt Peter Luczak

Luczak form has really dropped off in recent times and is giving up a lot of Grand Slam experience to the veteran Frenchman.

 

OTHER 1ST ROUND MATCHES (SELECTIONS IN BOLD)

 

Due to time constraints, out tennis analyst is unable to provide comments for other matches today.

 

2004 AUSTRALIAN OPEN - FIRST ROUND - MONDAY 19th JANUARY
Galo Blanco to bt Younes El Aynaoui 1 at 4.50 SptingOdds Void

The gutsy Moroccan will be remembered for playing the match of the year here last year, but he comes into this under an injury cloud. He withdrew from Doha doubles with a foot injury before losing 3 & 0 to Escude in the singles. He has not played since. If he is not 100%, Blanco may just push him. The Spaniard has not been past the first round here in six attempts, but he has been very competitive on most occasions when up against much higher ranked opponents. Been practising very hard over the last few weeks.

Tomas Berdych to bt Nicolas Mahut 3 at 1.90 Sportodds +2.7

Two promising types in action here. Mahut has played three qualifying matches in the lead up with wins over Parmar (ret.), Vahaly and Popp, and losses to Elsner and Joachim Johansson. Not sure how much to read into that. He is certainly a talented player, but he looks to like it a bit faster and I was impressed with Berdych's qualifying form here.

Karol Beck to bt Stefan Koubek 3 at 2.05 Sportingbet +3.15

Grand Slam experience looks like it may possibly be the deciding factor here but I'm willing to side with the improving Slovak. Beck is just 1-5 at the slams and has started the year 1-2, but his form is excellent and he looks to have improved immeasurably over the past twelve months.  Koubek upset Flip in Doha before losses to Lee and Martin in Auckland - not the greatest lead-up form. The smart money was against Koubek last week, so we'll wait and see how fit the Austrian is.

Multi 2 at 2.75 Global -2

Gilles Muller 1.70 to bt David Ferrer

Muller has had a very impressive week or two. He qualified for Auckland before beating Nicolas Lapentti in the first round and taking the experienced Novak to a breaker in the second. He has since arrived in Melbourne and defeated three quality opponents, including Kratochvil in Saturday's final round. Ferrer is most likely to do his best on this hardcourt, but recent form - losses to Andreev and Burgsmuller - does very little to inspire.

 

Vincent Spadea 1.62 to bt Thomas Enqvist

The Swede has never been back to his best since returning from injury a year ago. His most recent form is dreadful to say the least with the low point coming with a terrible loss to Ramirez-Hidalgo at Sydney qualifying. Spadea has been very competitive in the early going this year and will be too solid today.

Multi 3 at 2.25 Sportingbet +3.75

Juan Ignacio Chela 1.35 to bt Irakli Labadze

What can you say about the Georgian? He has looked to be in atrocious form in Adelaide's main draw and Sydney quallies. Chela has got off to an indifferent start to the year himself, but competitive losses to Henman and Rusedski do not overly concern coming into this. He'll have far too much run and heart.

 

Marat Safin 1.11 to bt Brian Vahaly

These players look to be traveling in opposite directions. The big serving Russian, now coached by Dennis Golovanov, made a successful return from wrist injury in the Hopman Cup. A grueling five-setter will test it out, but he is unlikely to face that possibility today. Vahaly has looked extremely ordinary this year.

 

Nicolas Escude 1.2 to bt Hyung-Taik Lee

The Frenchman defeated Lee in straight sets in Doha a few weeks ago, and in Grand Slam conditions now, it's hard to see the result differing today. An injury-free Escude can beat anyone on his day.

 

Nicolas Lapentti 1.25 to bt Oscar Hernandez

Lapentti has a very solid record here in Melbourne and it's very hard to see the Spaniard who did not play an ATP match on any surface other than clay last year, walking away with anything other than first round money.

Multi 1.5 at 3.49 SptingOdds -1.5

Bohdan Ulihrach 1.67 to bt Lars Burgsmuller

The German has not impressed of late with an early loss at Adelaide and a failed qualifying attempt in Sydney. Ulihrach is slowly coming back to best after his suspension and should take this one out with relative comfort.

 

Jurgen Melzer 1.57 to bt Tomas Behrend

Behrend has been knocked out by Kunitsyn and Ramirez-Hidalgo in Adelaide and Sydney quallies respectively, so this will be tough. Respectable losses to Spadea and Bogomolov by Melzer read much better.

 

Arnaud Clement 1.33 to bt Nikolay Davydenko

Davydenko has done very little in recent times. His only match in the lead up was a 3 & 4 loss to Roddick in Doha. The Frenchman has looked solid in the lead-up and looks comfortable today.

 

OTHER 1ST ROUND MATCHES (SELECTIONS IN BOLD)

 

Andy Roddick USA (1) vs. Fernando Gonzalez CHI

- They've played four sets for four breakers winning two each, but it's hard to go past the Yank. When you are holding serve at 91% it takes a lot of pressure off the rest of your game and as he proved here last year, he likes the confines of the relatively windless centre court. Is believed to have "painful bruising" of the foot, so there is some uncertainty. Gonzo's only lead-up however, a loss to Sluiter in Auckland, does not do anything to inspire.

 

Fernando Verdasco ESP vs. Taylor Dent USA (27)

- I get the feeling that Verdasco has not quite regained the form that saw him do well on the U.S. hardcourts last year. Still, he qualified here and remains a danger. Dent did not look all that comfortable at Kooyong last week, but this should be relatively straight forward.

 

Kenneth Carlsen DEN vs. Sjeng Schalken NED (16)

- The journeyman Carlsen got through a tricky qualifying draw and is not out of this by a long way. Schalken had a few wins early before posting losses to Moya and Nadal and it must be noted, is an appalling 3-8 here - clearly his worst grand slam record. The match-fit Dane will need to be firing on all cylinders but don't write him out of this.

 

Nicolas Massu CHI (12) vs. Jarkko Nieminen FIN

- First round losses to Ljubicic and Reid don't reveal a lot about the hard-working Chilean's form but he looks to have his work cut out today. Nieminen made the semis in Adelaide before an upset loss to Santoro in Auckland. Surface should suit both so expect quite a lengthy encounter here.

 

Anthony Dupuis FRA vs. Todd Martin USA

- A couple of veterans go at it here. Not sure how much the American has left in the tank, but I certainly don't believe that he'll have things all his own way in this one. Martin posted an early loss to Spadea in Auckland and has looked rusty in practice here. The only uncertainty surrounds the Frenchman's fitness - he retired from an Auckland qualifying match last week (reason unknown - well done ATP!). 

 

Ivo Karlovic CRO vs. Mardy Fish USA (21)

- The big serving Croatian has made a very indifferent start to the year. He was competitive against Arthurs, but a sharp loss to Larkham at Sydney quallies does not read well. Fish looked rusty in a first round loss to Clement in Sydney, but he will be better for the run and must be favoured to take out this one with relative ease.

 

Olivier Patience FRA vs. Igor Andreev RUS

- The young Russian plays his first Grand Slam match up against the French qualifier in just his second. The up and coming Andreev beat the likes of Ljubicic, Schalken and Mirnyi indoors late last year and then took Srichaphan to a breaker in the Chennai quarters a fortnight ago, so he is in some form. Patience has the match fitness at Melbourne Park, but his recent hardcourt record is not as convincing. A 2-0 head-to-head record (both in '03 albeit on clay) in Andreev's favour is also significant.

 

James Blake USA vs. Carlos Moya ESP (7)

- Moya won't play this one.

 

Andre Agassi USA (4) vs. Todd Larkham AUS

- Larkham has won a few games of late by getting the ball back into court, but as we all know, you need to do a little more than that if you are a chance against Agassi. Most interest will be surrounding the anticipated commentary from Johnny Mac (if he is in town yet!).

 

Gustavo Kuerten BRA (19) vs. John van Lottum NED

- Guga's 5-7 record here represents his worst Slam, but he should be safe today. A loss to the in-form Hrbaty in the Auckland semis is nothing to raise too much concern, but it must be said he did suffer somewhat of a crisis in confidence late last year.

 

Dmitry Tursunov RUS vs. Ivan Ljubicic CRO

- The promising Russian-American started the year off well with a tight loss to the in-form Robredo in Chennai. Few will forgot his excellent form at when reaching the round of 32 at the US Open last year. Ljubicic is just 2-4 here, but has started the year very well with a runner-up to Escude in Doha. He can run very hot and cold, but has impressed on the practice court here.

 

Jerome Golmard FRA vs. Albert Portas ESP

- The all too frequently injury-prone Frenchman breezed through the quallies here. He faces Portas, who looks to have all but given up on playing on hardcourts. He produced some decent results on clay towards the end of last year but this looks beyond him.

 

Jose Acasuso ARG vs. Paradorn Srichaphan THA (13)

- The Thai suffered a tight loss to Robredo last week in Sydney but looks to have drawn well here. Having said that, his go for broke hit or miss style is always a concern. Acasuso is suited by the slower surface but still lacks a weapon to cause any trouble here.

 

Sebastien Grosjean FRA (9) vs. Mikhail Youzhny RUS

- The Frenchman, who owns a very solid record here, regrouped at Kooyong last week with a win over Johansson after being blown off the court by Agassi in his opening match. Youzhny is 7-3 in Melbourne, defeating Novak and stretching Roddick to five last year, so he clearly finds conditions to his liking. Having said that, it's hard to see past the class edge.

 

Jan-Michael Gambill USA vs. Gregory Carraz FRA

- Losses to Soderling and Sanchez does not represent anything to write home about on Gambill's (1-5 here) behalf. Carraz meanwhile, has an injury concern from Auckland (ret. vs Nadal) after posting impressive wins over Beck and Santoro.

 

Dominik Hrbaty SVK vs. Flavio Saretta BRA

- A 9-0 start to the year from the Slovak represents hot form in anyone's book. Saretta elected to play a hardcourt challenger at home as his preparation for this, perhaps suggesting that he is not too confident about improving his 0-2 record here.

 

Gaston Gaudio ARG vs. Tommy Robredo ESP (20)

- Gaudio was consistent if not highly impressive towards the end of last year. Except for a terrible loss to Moya in the Sydney, Robredo has started the year in excellent form. May not be the one-sided match some are predicting.

 

Robby Ginepri USA (32) vs. Luis Horna PER

- Horna has looked to be in better form than his results - losses to Dent and Kohlschreiber - suggest. His 1-5 slam record is of concern. Ginepri came good towards the end of the Kooyong exhibition and should have too much, but don't write off the Peruvian.

 

Chris Guccione AUS vs. Alun Jones AUS

- Tough to go past the big-serving Guccione on his most recent results. Jones has defeated the lefty before and performed well on these courts in wildcard playoffs, so this looks like one to avoid for mine.

 

Robin Soderling SWE vs. Rainer Schuettler GER (6)

- Not the easiest first round encounter for the German who has lost his first two matches of the year. Soderling came good last year, but these courts are a little slow and high bouncing for his optimal conditions.

 

2003 AUSTRALIAN OPEN SELECTIONS ARCHIVE

 

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