If it comes down to all round clay court
ability, Gaudio wins this hands down. But, as we know from past
experience, the Argentinean is not the most mentally fit player going
around. Having said that, he did get the better of Hewitt at Düsseldorf
in the lead-up to Roland Garros, so he should be suitably confident
today. Hewitt will need to be a lot more attacking to be a chance in my
book.
Guga might be going through one of the
lowest points of his career, but he'll know that he has nothing to lose
today. With the crowd sure to be in his corner and possible slower
conditions to suit, the three-time Roland Garros winner knows what it
takes when things get tight. I'm still not convinced of Federer's clay
court ability. He was fortunate to get past Kiefer in three in the
second round and for mine has come up very short today.
The Frenchman Benneteau was 0-4 in slams
prior to this week but has returned to some solid form this year after a
few injury-hampered seasons. He was clearly elated to get past Ferrer on
Thursday and I would not be surprised to see him come out a little flat
today. Andreev has the clay pedigree behind him and if he can put his
win over Ferrero out of his mind, he looks to be a massive chance today.
Interesting match-up here between the two
locals. It's always hard to back-up after the big win, but Mutis has
been around for a while now and should be able to put his win over
Roddick out of the memory knowing that he should come out on top today.
He may have failed to win a match at ATP level prior to this week, but
he was 7-3 in some competitive qualifying and challenger matches on
clay. Santoro has had over ten hours on court already in the four days
of the tournament and should this one go the distance, he may struggle
with his fitness.
Coria and Moya should have few problems
going to the wire today, boasting far too much clay-court ability for
their respective opponents. Mikhail Youzhny is a very determined
character with an excellent Davis Cup record. He has a clear edge for
mine and will not be put off by the raucous French crowd. Nicolas Massu
is always tough to beat on clay, but I'm tipping the class and superior
record of Robredo at Roland Garros to prevail.
The former semi-finalist here in Mantilla
came here with a 3-3 lead-up, but all three losses were relatively tight
and two of them came against the likes of Nalbandian and Zabaleta. Safin
had an easy time of things on Tuesday against an injured Calleri but
this will be a lot tougher. He hasn't won too many easy matches here in
the past and if he falls behind today, I'm not sure it augurs well
considering his current state of mind.
Hewitt had the better of the Austrian a
little over a fortnight ago at Hamburg, but this price does look
slightly over the odds. Melzer matches up fairly well for mine. He
doesn't hold back on the right ball and will waste no time in going for
his shots today. Hewitt had many more unforced errors than winners
against Di Pasquale on Tuesday and will have to be more attacking today.
Back on the Hanescu bandwagon today up
against last year's shock finalist. It was more of the same for Verkerk
in the first round when he failed to drop serve in a straight-sets win
over an ill-prepared Boutter. They have split their last two meetings,
but the Romanian came out on top in the last meeting earlier in the year
on the hardcourt at Scottsdale.
Big price here on the in-form qualifier.
Elsner looks to be running into some very solid form of late and his
first round win over another qualifier in Peya where he failed to drop
serve once, could hardly have been more impressive. Malisse shook off
Schuettler on Tuesday, but given his form prior to St Polten and his
history of mental fragility, he must be opposed at this price.
I'm not a huge fan of the Dutchman, but
it's becoming clear that he has lifted his game a notch or two this
year. He was ultra impressive against the clay-loving Mello in the first
round and for mine, must be rated a genuine chance today. Hrbaty wasn't
tested against an injured Ulihrach on Monday. He made the final of
Casablanca last week but his four wins were over what could only be
described as sub-standard opposition and he has only won one of his five
other matches on the surface this year.
The younger Spaniard Garcia-Lopez has been
flying recently. He arrived in Paris on a 9-3 clay challenger run with
all three losses classed as respectable. He then cruised through
qualifying without dropping a set and breezed past Reid in the first
round on Monday. Robredo has the clear edge in class and experience but
he has certainly been prone to the odd inexplicable loss in the past.
Youzhny has posted some mixed results in
the lead-up to Roland Garros, but he has performed very well on clay
before and it's worth noting that he was not broken once in his first
round match against Van Scheppingen. Pavel on the other hand, was broken
twice before Hernandez pulled the pin after a set on Monday. His lead-up
has been more than respectable, but with Youzhny winning three of their
last four meetings, he'll be confident today.
As impressive as Fernando Verdasco has
been over the last six to twelve months, I'm not sure he deserves to
start so short today. Experience counts for a lot at Grand Slams and he
is certainly giving up a lot in that department today. Chela is a proven
clay-courter and at 15-8 on clay this year including a tournament win,
is by no means out of form. Verdasco predictably had the better of
Rusedski on Monday, but this will be a lot tougher.
Suiting up again for what looks to be a
very solid multiple. Can't see the likes of Moya, Massu, Coria and Horna
being pushed too far today - all have a clear edge on their opponents.
The impressive young German Mayer being the major play. He boasts some
very impressive lead-up form when going 16-4 at all tournaments on clay
this year. And to top that off, he knocked out Gonzalez on Monday.
Escude beat Arthurs in the first roung, but this looks to be
immeasurably tougher.
The up and coming Frenchman has handled
the jump to regular ATP level tournaments quite well this year, going
7-5 in the five week lead-up on clay. Kiefer is just 4-11 on dirt over
the past three year and despite a win over Stepanek last week in
Dusselforf, he does not look to be travelling all that well on the
surface. Coupled with a poor record here, this looks tough.
Still unclear as to whether Guga is over
all his injury problems. Suffice to say, the Brazilian is a shadow of
the former three-time champion here. He come into this very low on
confidence at 2-2 on clay since Miami. Almagro qualified well and was
very impressive when pushing Coria to a tight third set two weeks ago in
Hamburg.
The somewhat erratic Feliciano Lopez is
another who does not appear to be travelling all that well at the
moment. He has dropped his last five matches in the lead up to this
including losses to Novak and Schuettler last week at the team event in
Germany. Lapentti has a lot more experience here and for mine knows how
to play smarter clay court tennis.
Looks a case of David and Goliath here,
but I'm tipping the pint-sized Moroccan to go very close indeed. He
comes in with some average clay form but has never lost a first round
match here. Ljubicic posted a semi final result in the lead-up at
Hamburg, but Arazi looks to match-up well on this surface.
Canas has had the better of Gaudio in
their last two meetings on clay (both straight sets). It wont be easy
however. Gaudio has been inconsistent as ever in the lead-up with losses
to Mayer and Labadze, yet defeating the likes of Moya and Hewitt. Canas
always does it the hard way, but it is worth noting that he has not lost
a first round at a Slam in his last nine attempts.
While I'm a big fan of the Romanian
Hansecu, he has come up very short today. Lisnard is a fighter who is
always tough to beat in best-of-five encounters. His form might be
ordinary, but he is no stranger to the surface. Let's not forget that
Hanescu has lost to the likes of Ballert and Dell'Acqua in the lead up,
so he is not home here by any means.
Starace has been going gangbusters on the
dirt recently with a solid qualifying performance and a 10-3 challenger
lead-up. He should have the edge against the big hitting Tursunov. Also,
I expect Bjorkman to have far too much clay experience for an out of
sorts Taylor Dent.
A loss to Starace by Lopez was no major
upset, but I feel he'll have too much on the clay for Chris Rochus,
despite posting a few wins last week at Casablanca. Meanwhile, forget
all the talk from Safin, if you can't get motivated for a Grand Slam,
well it is time to give up. Calleri arrives with an injury hampered
preparation and is a class or two below.
Neither of these would rate clay as their
favourite surface, but I like the preparation of Arthurs here. The
Aussie, who has made it to the fourth round here before, is coming off a
solid week of practice and doubles play in Dusseldorf. Escude has the
slight mental edge from their decisive Davis Cup encounter a few years
ago, but boasts very little clay form and a dreadful record at Roland
Garros.
Hernandez is a pure clay-courter who has
an Acapulco win over Horna as his highlight of the year. Paris is a long
way from South America, but there is a thought that he'll be competitive
today. Pavel is a solid 11-6 on dirt this year, but is still not the
most consistent type going around.
The French wildcard is an impressive 14-6
on clay this year, mostly at challenger level, but a win over Monaco at
Bermuda showed that he can match it with some of the better players.
He'll certainly have nothing to lose today. Zabaleta is 14-10 this year
on clay at ATP level, and it must be said, did struggle a little at last
week's team event in Germany, when going down to Flip after scraping
past Ginepri.
Two fighters go at it here in a match
which I'm tipping to go the full distance. Tipsarevic comes into this
with some very handy form entailing a 9-1 clay challenger run and an
impressive qualifying results. Massu went 3-1 last week at Dusseldorf,
but I for one am not convinced he is in the best form at present.
Serra's tour form certainly doesn't
represent anything to write home about, but now that he's at home, he
might just be able to find something extra today. He qualified with wins
over Rosset and Waske, so he has had some solid match practice under his
belt coming into this. Spadea went a disappointing 0-3 last week in
Germany and has now gone 0-5 on clay since Rome - not a great confidence
building preparation.
Santoro has the better of his younger
countryman in the final of a local clay challenger three weeks ago. A
sharp loss to Massa last week in Prague is not too encouraging, but I
see this being closer than the odds suggest. Clement is just 9-11 on
tour this year and if low on confidence, will find it tougher today.
The veteran Martin is making what is
likely to be his final appearance at Roland Garros and what could
provide a better finale than taking out his younger compatriot today.
Martin is still more than competitive on clay and if their previous few
meetings are anything to go by, this will be tight. Roddick has not
performed all that well here, and it's worth noting that he has not made
much of an effort on the surface since coming under the auspices of the
clay-hating Brad Gilbert.
Not much to say here. Taking those with a
preference to the surface. The main play being Burgsmuller. The German
should have too much for Mahut, who while being at home, prefers
conditions much faster and is 0-3 here and 0-6 in the main draw of the
Slams.
Again, giving the clear edge to those with
the all-round clay ability. Add Stepanek, who is a class above Voltchkov,
who despite qualifying, is 0-3 here and on a 0-4 Grand Slam run. Another
qualifier, Ricardo Mello is favoured to get past Sluiter, who despite
some improved form, is also 0-3 here and not on his favourite surface by
any means.
RECORD
Click
here to view our
full record dating back to October '01.
FEEDBACK
Click
here
to take a look at what the punters are saying.
NEWS
Click
here
to view the latest 'From the back courts'
All the
latest from Glenn Munsie at the TAB - each Thurs
Latest betting moves and
news from the Tattsbet
office
Betfair
update you on their most recent in-running
action
FUTURES
GOLF
2012 US MASTERS
Mickelson, Phil 6.00
Mcilroy, Rory 7.00
Woods, Tiger 8.50
Westwood, Lee 21.00
Donald, Luke 21.00
Watney, Nick 26.00
Kaymer, Martin 34.00
Johnson, Dustin 34.00
Scott, Adam 34.00
Schwartzel, C 34.00
Day, Jason 34.00
Mahan, Hunter 36.00
Garcia, Sergio 36.00
Mcdowell, Graeme 36.00
Watson, Bubba 36.00
Kim, Anthony 36.00
Ogilvy, Geoff 36.00
Fowler, Rickie 36.00
Harrington, P 41.00
Stricker, Steve 41.00
Poulter, Ian 41.00
Cabrera, Angel 41.00
Kuchar, Matt 41.00
Simpson, Webb 41.00
+3
-1.5
RECORD
