I'm not convinced that the three day break
that Federer has gained in going to help him today. He says he needed it
the rest, but coming in without a fourth round match is not the ideal
lead-up. Not to say Agassi had much of workout against Sargsian, but at
least he kept his routine. Federer has come out on top in their last
three meetings (3-3), but this is clearly "away" territory for the Swiss
maestro who it must be added, is still unproven at the business end of
the U.S. Open.
The Czech Berdych has demonstrated a
liking for these conditions with two solid wins to open the week, made
all the more impressive coming off his Athens heroics where he halted
the Fed-Express. Youzhny once again showed his fighting qualities with a
dramatic win over Nalbandian in the second round but I feel that the
mental and physical toll from that match may have an impact today as
Berdych is sure to provide a very stern test.
The two qualifiers Mello and Peya look to
have run their race here in these third round match-ups. Both have
nothing to lose again, but are several classes below their respective
opponents today. Roddick looks almost unstoppable at the moment and
looks most likely to enact revenge on Canas for his Rome win earlier in
the year. Jurgen Melzer showed a newfound patience and mental stability
to come back from two sets down against Spadea on Friday and I do think
he'll have too much for the serve and volley game of Llodra.
Going with the faves today on a day where
it's hard to see too many upsets. Santoro has been in brilliant form in
recent times, but this one could get nasty as I don't see Federer
getting too worked up by the magician. Pavel has notched up two very
good wins and on that form, simply has too much for H-T Lee. Likewise,
Moya should have few troubles with Ollie Rochus, who hasn't a weapon to
get close. Srichaphan has hardly been a model of consistency of late,
but I do think that he'll have too much firepower on this surface for
the Dominator.
The Russian had the better of Nalbandian
in a lead-up tournament and I certainly don't see that much has changed
since that meeting. Nalbandian is clearly not at his best still. He was
broken no less than five times against the lowly Van Scheppingen in the
first round so would might assume he will struggle a little today.
Seppi took a while to get going against
Schuettler but carried his qualifying form through nicely in the end
with a gusty win. Llodra was far from impressive against Giles Elseneer
and also went out in the doubles yesterday which was somewhat of a
surprise. Don't think that there will be much in it, but at these odds
there is only one player to support.
Enqvist had too much for a slumping Marat
Safin in the first round, but it's back to the outside courts for this
meeting with the dangerous Peya. He is not your typical Austrian tennis
player, but I do think he will be able to match it with the Swede from
the back of the court.
These two are remarkably meeting for the
fifth time this year. They have spilt 2-2, but with three on clay and a
retirement in the other, not sure how much we can read into that. Canas
has no hardcourt form in the lead-up and had to rely on a faltering
Vliegen to get through the first round in four. Volandri has not played
much on hardcourts up to this point but his form when he has - including
a straight sets win over Hippensteel on Tuesday - has been more than
acceptable.
Soderling was most impressive against
Gonzalez in the first round here. He faces a very different opponent in
the annoying Davydenko, but on the form that the Russian displayed
against Mark Philippoussis, this will be very tough. The second leg
involves the ever reliable Vince Spadea, who should frustrate the flashy
Jurgen Melzer into too many errors. An 0 & 1 loss at Athens in the
lead-up wont give him too much confidence coming into this.
I have to give the Spaniard the edge here.
With a new coach, he is playing much more attacking tennis of late and
has been in with a chance in all his matches in this preparation. H-T
Lee has not done anything of note on hardcourts for a long time now. A
win by default over Ljubicic in the first round does not change that
fact.
The Frenchman did what he had to in the
first round to progress past Raemon Sluiter. This will be tougher, but
it is worth noting that he does play well against big-servers - he
forced Dent to a third-set breaker in their only previous meeting
(indoors last year). Dent has had the less than ideal Olympic
preparation and only time will tell as to whether it has an influence
here.
It seems a shame to have to recommend a
small wager against the great man in what may well prove to be his last
U.S. Open, but this late afternoon match may prove his undoing. Mayer is
the type who will not take a backward step should he have a chance to
steal this and looks well worth a nibble at nice odds.
Ollie Rochus was able to ground out a win
over an out of sorts Ancic in the first round on Monday, but this looks
a lot tougher. Starace recovered from a slow start to get past Popp in
four sets and should appreciate the game that Rochus will serve up. The
Italian lacks the experience, but more than makes up for it in talent
and eagerness.
Kiefer has performed very well in the
lead-up, but this is another tournament and it will take a big effort to
keep the form going this week. Saulnier is another player who I believe
has the advantage of staying in North America instead of going to the
Olympics. He was impressive against Rusedski on Monday and I see no
reason why he cant carry that form into this one.
Hewitt is the form player of the North
American summer, but while there is no disputing that his form is
excellent it must be noted that a lot of his wins have come up against
lowly ranked opponents. The head-to-head is 2-2 and their previous
encounters have been keenly fought affairs. The South African is going
around for one last time at ATP level (he is playing Davis Cup) so he
has absolutely nothing to lose here.
It's going to be very tough for Gonzalez
to come back down to earth after his heroics with Massu in Athens. He
reached the quarter-finals here a few years ago but this wont be easy.
Soderling won their only previous meeting earlier in the year at
Marseille (indoor) so he'll be confident coming into this.
It's a big step up form Challenger level
tournaments in his home country of Brazil, but Mello showed some
impressive qualifying form and with some matches under the belt, must be
rated some chance today. He beat Chela in their only previous meeting
(hard, '03). The Argentinean has had a solid preparation and has a
decent record here, but is susceptible to the odd poor performance.
This looks to be a massive price about the
younger Frenchman. Patience is giving up a lot of experience, but
despite what looks a poor lead-up on paper, his form is not that bad.
Grosjean's form is scratchy and it must be noted that his recent record
at Flushing Meadows is poor.
The young German Kohlschreiber was very
impressive in last week's qualifying tournament. He defeated the likes
of Horna, Gaudio and Schuettler on hardcourts earlier in the year so is
most capable on the surface. Benneteau has promised a lot and had a good
run early in the year, but his recent form has been average to say the
least.
The young American Wayne Odesnik has done
nothing on hardcourts recently, but he did knock off Joachim Johansson
at Indian Wells qualifying earlier in the year, so he can play. He
shouldn't be too nervous about his first Grand Slam appearance with a
nice draw on court six. Sanchez is a very poor player on hardcourts - he
has a poor serve for the surface and has never been past the first round
in four previous starts here.
I can't see there being too much in this
one. Melzer can look a million dollars one minute and a shambles the
next. In a best-of-five sets match there is more time for the latter to
be displayed for mine. Carraz will have good memories of his fine play
here last year which saw him notch up wins over Rusedski and Clement.
Berdych will be looking to continue his
fine form in Athens which saw him take out Federer and Robredo. Bjorkman
has the conditions to suit, but his form is average and he has had an
injury-affected preparation. Davydenko has the ability to prolong a
match and thus fully test the Scud's knee and shocking form this year.
Finally, Lopez is not the most consistent type going around, but should
have far too much class for a Frenchman with no hard court form to speak
of.
Henman comes into this with some mixed
results in recent times, most notably a sharp loss to Novak in Athens
and there remains some concern about his fitness. Karlovic wont be
broken too often today and it would be no surprise to see him edge this
in three breakers.
The promising Lu from Taipei took Kuerten
to three in Cincy a month ago and has handled the big-servers before. He
comes into this at a very impressive 19-6 on hardcourts at challenger
level for the year. Johansson has the serve as a big weapon, but it must
be noted that he is just 14-10 on cement on the year.
Gambill's results in the lead-up, though
very modest, are flattering - he has been in shocking form. He is just
10-7 at this venue, one which should be his best. Ram has notched up
wins over the likes of Okun and Moodie on hardcourts this year and is
certainly not without a chance today.
Srichaphan had his Long Island run ended
by Horna on Saturday but his overall form remains very scratchy for
mine. He has had problems with consistency in recent times and still
looks a long way from being back to his best. Hanescu gives up a lot of
hardcourt experience, but is no stranger to performing well on fast
surfaces.
The Italian is in a different class and
boasts a lot less experience in these conditions, but such is the dismal
form of Schuettler on hardcourts this year (0-9, after 41-13 in 2003),
that Seppi must be given a genuine chance here. He was very impressive
in qualifying and had some matches at a local challenger in the lead-up.
Llodra should have too much game at the
net. Elsneeer has the serve to suit, but the remainder of his game does
leave a lot to be desired. Nadal is certainly short enough in the
market, but is in a different class to Heuberger. Bogomolov has had some
decent wins over the likes of Saulnier and Karlovic in the lead-up but
tends to go missing in the best-of-five scenario - he is 0-6 at main
draw slams, while Koubek has had a solid lead-up and should use his
experience to good measure.
Nieminen has returned to the tour from
injury recently, but if his form in his four or five tournaments back is
any indication, he is not far from getting back to his best. A second
round loss to Long Island finalist Louis Horna last week is no disgrace,
but he will be better for that run. You have to go back to Miami before
you find some hardcourt form on Pavel's behalf - he is 0-3 in the
lead-up and should not be a favourite here for mine.
Rusedski is a former runner-up here and
has shown patches of form since his well-documented time off earlier in
the year, but this wont be easy first-up since Cincinnati. Saulnier is
playing the best tennis of his career at the moment and did towel up the
Brit when the controversy broke in Adelaide. He comes in with a solid
lead-up which should hold well today.
Standing room only out on court six for
this match-up between exciting up-and-coming talents. Both hit the ball
very hard and waste no time in going for their shots, but I believe
Verdasco will have the patience to outlast the Russian. Not only does he
have the advantage of a big swinging left-handed serve, but a lot more
experience on hardcourts at this level.
Sluiter has continued his indifferent
hardcourt form in the lead-up to the US Open. He notched up tight wins
over Todd and Alberto Martin in Washington and then failed to qualify
for Long Island with a poor loss to Daniel Elsner. A fit Mathieu is
tough to beat at anytime and with a few good matches in the lead-up, he
looks to be too solid here.
Two qualifiers and a veteran look solid
picks in a big-priced treble. Baghdatis is an impressive type who looks
destined for the big-time. Match-fit, he should have a relatively easy
time of things against a struggling Mutis. The tobacco-smoking Frenchman
pushed Hewitt to a breaker last week at Long Island but was far from
impressive. Sargsian should be fully motivated to take out the
struggling Spaniard Corretja, who hit a new low last week when losing to
the #267-ranked Marcus Sarstrand at Long Island qualifying. Finally, the
young Brit Bogdanovic showed some solid qualifying form and should be
too strong for the veteran clay-loving Calatrava.
Strong double here, with the main leg
involving a young Italian by the name of Potito Starace. He was very
impressive against Serra in the final round of qualifying and with a
handy serve and most consistent groundstrokes looks a likely type. Popp
has the surface to suit but remains very one-dimensional and looked
terrible in a sharp loss to Horna last week. Kucera beat Malisse at the
Oz Open earlier in the year, but with a very limited lead-up, it's hard
to see him going close in these conditions.
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