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MARKET COMPARISONS: WINNER
1ST ROUND: 3RD QUARTER | 4TH QUARTER | 1ST QUARTER | 2ND QUARTER
2ND ROUND: BOTTOM HALF | TOP HALF | 3RD ROUND TO FINAL

DAILY ANALYSIS ARCHIVE:
1ST RND BOTTOM | 1ST RND TOP | 2ND RND BOTTOM | 2ND RND TOP

Tournament Summary

All in all, it was another successful Grand Slam - that makes it five in a row where I have produced a handsome profit for OnThePunt readers. As per usual, the vast majority of profit was made in the 1st and 2nd rounds where there are the greatest number of matches and where one can be most selective. We were on the rough end of a few amazing comebacks - there were a record 15 matches where players came back to win from two sets to love down in this year's AUS Open, when the Grand Slam avg. is just under five! - and the Wayne Ferreira injury saga did hold us back in a few matches. Based on our initial outlay of 40 units, I finished with a very respectable 157% profit for the two weeks - I hope some of you shared in the success!

I'll continue to provide selected weekly ATP Masters and International Series events. Please join me again for the next Grand Slam starting on May 27 when we get stuck into the bagmen once again - this time on the dirt of Roland Garros.

Marat Safin 1.65 RUS (9) vs. Tommy Haas 2.35 GER (7)
- H-H 1-2. Tommy Haas has held his composure remarkably well throughout the past two weeks. Just when you think his temper is about the get the better of him, he settles and produces on the big points when it matters - particularly in his past two matches against Federer and Rios, when winning the 1st sets in tiebreak's. Having said that, he comes up against the in-form player of the tourney for mine here and might have run his race. Safin has looked very sharp this fortnight and does find something extra at the business end of Grand Slams. He has been travelling along much better than Haas and will appreciate the extra rest after the Ferreira walkover as the mercury rises to a predicted 33C in the mid-afternoon in Melbourne.
10 units Safin at 1.65 (Global Sportsbet, Camelot) +6.5

Jiri Novak 2.17 (CZE)[26] vs. Thomas Johansson 1.75 (SWE)[16]
- H-H 1-2, on hard 1-0. 7:30pm Start. Very tough to pick. Both players are in uncharted waters in the semis of a Grand Slam and both are very evenly matched. Novak cruised through his quarter final after frustrating Koubek, getting everything back and making very few errors while Johansson was also impressive in getting past countryman Bjorkman in four. Apart from a terrible lapse in the second set, he looked sharp. Novak had the more impressive lead-up to the Aus Open and has looked very confident here this week, while Johansson has shown definite signs of tightening up when the pressure is on in the past. In summary, two very evenly matched players and at this stage of the tournament near on impossible to confidently pick.
NO PLAY

PLAYS:

NO PLAYS 

OTHER MATCHES - SELECTIONS IN BOLD (Best early prices):

Marcelo Rios 2.20 CHI vs. Tommy Haas 1.67 GER (7)
- H-H 4-2, 3-0 on hard. While Marcelo Rios has been hitting the headlines for his well justified comments on women's tennis, he has let his racquet do the talking on the court and has looked very sharp in cruising through his last three matches without dropping a set. Haas on the other hand has done it tough over his past two matches after an easy run to the 3rd round. He took care of Todd Martin in five but against Federer, he was lucky to win the first set in a tie-break and then found himself two sets to one down. He came back valiantly, saving a match point late in 5th set and showing his new found maturity that has kept his temper under control. I give Rios the edge, but these are two of the most unpredictable players on the tour so I won't be touching it.
NO PLAY 

Wayne Ferreira 4.00 RSA vs. Marat Safin 1.25 RUS (9)
- H-H 0-2, 0-1 on hard. The veteran South African has surely run his race now. I've been a big fan of his from his opening match against Gambill, but when he retired from a doubles match as a 'precautionary measure' due to an old ankle injury the day before his match with Ljubicic, all bets were off. Well, for a guy with a bad ankle he has been playing like superman! (I'm now convinced it was his doubles partner Kafelnikov who just wanted to get the hell out of Melbourne after his loss to Kim.) He has come back from two sets and 1-5 down against Ljubicic and then pulled out a remarkable win against Costa 9/7 in the 5th. He was a semi-finalist here a decade ago, but he runs into the form player of the tournament as far as I'm concerned. Having said that, I won't be taking the 1/4 in a Grand Slam quarter, so I'll leave it alone.
NO PLAY

PLAY:

Jiri Novak 1.44 CZE (26) vs. Stefan Koubek 3.00 AUT
- H-H 0-0. Not quite your normal prime-time night quarter final match up at a Grand Slam, but I do like the chances of the Czech to get past the gutsy Austrian. Novak has certainly come a long way since I witnessed him angrily smacking balls into the court 19 fence after going two sets down to Gaudenzi in the 2nd round - but now he's looks to be riding sky high on confidence. Both have played a lot of tennis this week - Novak in the mixed and men's doubles as well singles, while Koubek came back from two sets down in his first two matches against Saulnier and Blake and has had easier wins over Pless and the inexperienced Gonzalez. I'm always weary of taking odds-on towards the end of the slams and Koubek will run down just about everything, but I feel Novak will get too many past the Austrian.
10 units Novak at 1.44 (Ladbrokes) +4.4

OTHER MATCH - SELECTIONS IN BOLD (Best early prices):

Jonas Bjorkman 2.10 SWE vs. Thomas Johansson 1.75 SWE (16)
- H-H 3-3, 2-2 on hard. I have a slight lean towards Bjorkman in this one. The veteran Swede is playing some great tennis here this week - his serving has been excellent and is hitting winners at will - and he really looked to outsmart Henman on Sunday. Johansson will equal his best Grand Slam performance should he advance, but I feel his elder countryman has been travelling along in a more attractive fashion and might just get up in a tight five setter.
NO PLAY

PLAYS:

Marcelo Rios 1.57 CHI vs. Nicolas Lapentti 2.75 ECU (23)
- H-H 3-2, on hard 2-0. Rios looks to be in some very handy form here this week and will take some beating in this one. Lapentti came from two sets down against Gaudio in the last round while the Chilean disposed of Alberto Martin in three. Lapentti is a past semi finalist here and loves the rebound ace, but Rios is a former finalist at Melbourne Park and looks to have too much run.
10 units Rios at 1.57 (Bet365) +5.7

Roger Federer 1.80 SUI (11) vs. Tommy Haas 2.10 GER (7)
- H-H 1-1, 0-1 on hard. Federer has been is on an eight match winning streak from Sydney a fortnight ago. Haas on the other hand, went to Kooyong for a warm up, followed by easy wins over Stoliarov and Bachelot and a less than convincing five setter over Todd Martin in his 3rd round encounter. I just believe Federer has looked a lot more impressive and should have too much for the inconsistent German.
6 units Federer at 1.80 (Bet365) -6

OTHER MATCHES - SELECTIONS IN BOLD (Best early prices):

 Albert Costa 2.20 ESP vs. Wayne Ferreira 1.75 RSA
- H-H 2-2, 1-0 on hard. This is virtually impossible to pick. The veteran South African went into his last match under an injury cloud but truly came back from the dead against Ljubicic. Two sets and 1-5 down in the third, it was truly a Houdini performance. I was ready to play him to beat the Croatian until news of his injury surfaced and I'd do the same in this one, but he stated in his post-match news conference that the ankle was painful throughout the match and he just played on. After hearing this, there is now way I can confidently select him, especially given that Costa will most certainly run him all over the court.

Marat Safin 2.25 RUS (9) vs. Pete Sampras 1.70 USA (8)
- H-H 3-3, 2-3 on hard. The Russian is yet to drop a set this week and does look to be doing it a lot easier than Sampras. Expect yesterday's 2am finish to take it's toll on the veteran Yank, especially if the match goes to four or five, which is very likely. Safin did show some signs of his once temperamental behaviour in his last match with Youzhny, but has looked sharp all week and does look a huge chance to reverse last year's US Open result. 5/4 looks overs, but don't write off the champ.

PLAYS:

NO PLAYS - Very tricky day with two even match-ups and a couple where the favourite is just too skinny. I'll be applying rule #1 (not betting for the sake of it) and just sit back with a cold one and enjoy watching some tennis!

OTHER MATCHES - SELECTIONS IN BOLD (Best early prices):

Jiri Novak 1.77 CZE (26) vs. Dominik Hrbaty 2.24 SVK
- H-H 2-3. 0-0 on Hard. The Czech has been going along nicely this year and apart from dropping the first two sets against Gaudenzi in the 2nd round, has really been winning his matches comfortably. Hrbaty looks to have run into some form after a horror spell through the middle of '01 and looks to be in peak shape. His fitness is right up there and might be the deciding factor on Sunday as the mercury rises to a predicted 35C here in Melbourne.

Stefan Koubek 2.15 AUT vs. Fernando Gonzalez 2.00 CHI
- H-H 0-0. Very tough to pick. Hard to believe that one of these two will make to the quarters of a Grand Slam. Koubek has come from two sets down in his first two matches then had too much run for Pless in the 3rd round. This would be his best Grand Slam performance. The Chilean qualifier will be playing his seventh game at Melbourne Park for '02. While he is unbelievably yet to drop a set, he might just lack the experience to win this one. 

Tim Henman 1.40 GBR (6) vs. Jonas Bjorkman 3.40 SWE
- H-H 2-4, 1-2 on hard. Definite danger game for the Brit here - one might expect a let down after Friday night's much hyped 'Battle of Britain'. You can be guaranteed there will be plenty of support for the Swedish veteran in Rod Laver Arena, but the conditions might be against him. The former world number four has been playing some great tennis this week but Henman has looked in great shape and should advance.

Thomas Johansson 1.25 SWE (16) vs. Adrian Voinea 4..25 ROM
- H-H 0-1 on hard in '96. The Swede has been playing into form this week and won't let this one slip. The Romanian will use every trick in the book to try and get through, but really looks to have run his race. 

PLAYS:

Wayne Ferreira 2.00 RSA vs. Ivan Ljubicic 1.85 CRO
- H-H 0-1, Ljubicic winning a tight three set encounter in Scottsdale last year. I've been on the veteran South African for his last two and I'm not about to jump off now. He took a while to get going against the up and coming Nalbandian in his last match when down a set and two breaks only to come back and steal the 2nd set. Experience will count for a lot in this late match on show court two and this is where Ferreira will come into his own. He knows he's not going to get many more opportunities like this in Grand Slam tourney's and is sure to have the crowd support in this one.
0 units Ferreira at 2.00 (Bet365) SQ

**UPDATE**
This PLAY is now off. News is that Ferreira withdrew from today's doubles match with Kafelnikov as a "precautionary measure" after a reoccurrence of an old right ankle injury. Thought about reversing the play, but this match is now fraught with danger.

Alberto Martin 2.63 ESP vs. Marcelo Rios 1.53 CHI
- H-H 0-1. The Spaniard returns to Rod Laver Arena, the scene of his big upset win over Hewitt. He comes off a win against Kratochvil and has had a big few weeks, but I expect the Chilean to be too quick. Rios has looked sharp this week and won't let this opportunity slip.

10 units Rios at 1.53 (William Hill) +5.3

OTHER MATCHES - SELECTIONS IN BOLD (Best early prices):

Nicolas Lapentti 1.40 ECU (23) vs. Gaston Gaudio 3.00 ARG
- H-H 2-0 - both on clay. The Argentinean has been riding high on confidence and this is most certainly one he can win. Lapentti has not been in the greatest form coming into this and wins over Pretzsch and Acasuso does not tell me a lot. The 2/1 looks well over the odds.

Roger Federer 1.36 SUI (11) vs. Rainer Schuettler 3.75 GER
- H-H 2-0. Federer continues to impress here in Melbourne and does look like the one to beat at this stage. Schuettler ran everything down  in his amazing comeback late yesterday against Moya, but this is a big step up in class.

Todd Martin 2.75 USA vs. Tommy Haas 1.50 GER (7)
- H-H 0-2. The Veteran Yank has helped make us a nice profit this week, but this will be tough. He has had wins over Sa and Malisse, but Haas has been going along quite nicely and will fancy his chances of making it three from three against Martin.

Albert Costa 2.50 ESP vs. Andrei Pavel 1.62 ROM (25)
- H-H 2-0. Big opportunity for one of these two make the 4th round. Costa impressed with his comfortable win over Byron Black in the last round, while the inconsistent Pavel won by default over an injured Simoni. Don't forget the Spaniard is a former quarter-finalist here and this week is no doubt appreciating the slower conditions. May just get enough balls back to worry the Romanian.

Marat Safin 1.22 RUS (9) vs. Mikhail Youzhny 4.50 RUS
- H-H 0-0. At first glance, should be a formality for Safin, but taking 2/9 about the explosive Russian is out of the question.

Nicolas Escude 3.75 FRA (30) vs. Pete Sampras 1.29 USA (8)
- H-H 0-0. The Frenchman returns to the scene of Davis Cup triumph seven weeks ago, but this time on the rebound ace. He performed a Houdini act in the last round when saving three match points against Calatrava. That's not the best lead-up for mine, while Sampras is playing into some form and did well to take care of the dangerous Chela in four and will appreciate the cooler night conditions.

PLAYS:

Jonas Bjorkman 3.10 SWE vs. Guillermo Canas 1.57 ARG (12)
- H-H 0-0. The army of Swedish fans at Melbourne Park will be in full voice for this one and I don't believe it is beyond the veteran to notch up another win. As predicted, he had too much for Enqvist in his prior match while Canas did not overly impress with his tight four set win over Ramon Delgado.
2 units Bjorkman at 3.10 (Global) +4.2

Dominik Hrbaty 2.63 SVK vs. Jerome Golmard 1.50 FRA
- H-H 0-0. I do like the chances of the Frenchman in this one. He was outstanding on Wednesday night when, as predicted, defeating Goran Ivanisevic. Hrbaty has defeated Burgsmuller and Portas, but regarding the latter, the word is that the Spaniard sustained an injury, so don't read too much into the 1/3/0 score-line.

Taylor Dent 1.36 USA vs. Adrian Voinea 3.25 ROM
- H-H 0-0. You can mark this one down to the big-serving Yank.. or is he an Aussie? Anyway, he'll have far too much for the Romanian who did well to get past Boutter in the 2nd round, but looks to be outclassed in this match-up.

10 units at 2.04 (Bet365) -10

OTHER MATCHES - SELECTIONS IN BOLD (Best early prices):

Francisco Clavet 3.20 ESP vs. Jiri Novak 1.46 CZE (26)
- H-H 1-3. The Czech has been in form but was very fortunate to get through his last match against Gaudenzi after an error filled first two sets out on court 19. Don't write off the veteran Frenchman - a five set win over Grosjean will have him brimming with confidence. Novak for mine, but not at 4/9.

Stefan Koubek 2.45 AUT vs. Kristian Pless 1.73 DEN
- H-H 0-0. Pless does look to have picked up from where he left off in the first week of December when he won a challenge event on the dirt. Wins over Mirnyi and Arazi represents some handy form to have coming into this one. The ease at which he defeated Arazi however, may have something to do with the Moroccan's hand blisters. Koubek defeated the highly rated Blake in the 2nd round after, but by all accounts, it was mostly due to the inexperienced American blowing up after a bad line call at 2/3 in the 5th. The Austrian will run down everything, but this will be tough.

Fernando Gonzalez 1.83 CHI vs. Alex Kim 2.30 USA
- Very tough match-up with two qualifiers meeting in the 3rd round after showing some outstanding form. Gonzalez has been ultra-impressive in his five wins in the last week without dropping a set, while Kim was fearless in his 7/1 win over Kafelnikov in only his 4th or 5th professional match. Slight edge towards Gonzalez, but no confidence at all.

Tim Henman 1.57 GBR (6) vs. Greg Rusedski 2.70 GBR (28)
- H-H 4-2, last three on hard 3-0. I'm quite keen on Henman in this one, despite the fact that both are yet to drop a set here this week and have been in top form in '02. Henman defeated Rusedski in Adelaide a fortnight ago and is playing some of the best tennis of his career, while the booming Rusedski serve won't be as potent in the heavier night-time conditions in Rod Laver Arena.

Thomas Johansson 1.90 SWE (16) vs. Y El Aynaoui 2.10 MAR (21)
- H-H 1-2, 1-1 on hard. Johansson looks to be playing into some form with his straight sets win over Hipfl, but El Aynaoui is coming off a win in Doha and has reached the quarters here before. He looked to be in trouble early against Vicente in his last match but found enough to get by the Spaniard. Very tough.

OUTRIGHT

Grosjean 3 units each/way at 19.00 (SportingOdds) -6
(Already holding Agassi 5 units to win at 6.50) -5

PAST PERFORMANCE:

+28.25 units