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TENNIS

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MARKET COMPARISONS: WINNER
1ST ROUND: 3RD QUARTER | 4TH QUARTER (MONDAY)
1ST ROUND: 1ST QUARTER | 2ND QUARTER (TUESDAY)


DAILY ANALYSIS ARCHIVE: CURRENT | 1ST ROUND MONDAY 



DAILY ANALYSIS .. with OnThePunt's Tennis expert in Melbourne
Updated 1:15 PM AEDST, Sunday 13 January
MONDAY 14th - 1ST ROUND MATCHES (BOTTOM HALF DRAW)

SUMMARY: 6 from 9 plays (avg. price 2.49), +25.29 units, 56% Profit

PLAYS:

 

Julien Boutter 3.75 FRA vs. Gustavo Kuerten 1.45 BRA (2)

- H-H 1-0. Huge chance of an upset here. 'Guga' has never been past the 2nd round at Melbourne Park and first-up for '02, will struggle against the match fit Frenchman. Boutter had a loss to Philippoussis in Adelaide, but had straight sets wins over Johansson and Schuettler in Sydney before going down to Mirnyi in the quarters. 11/4 at Hills looks massive overs.

4 units Boutter at 3.75 (William Hill) +11

 

Nicolas Kiefer 2.45 GER vs. Jiri Novak 1.66 CZE (26)

- H-H 4-3, Hard 3-1. The Czech has been in excellent form and should have enough to win this one. Novak reached the QF's in Doha and then lost 6/7 in the 3rd set to eventual champion Rusedski in the semis of Auckland last week after solid straight sets wins over Vicente and Mantilla. The German looked terribly out of sorts when going down to Schuettler in straight sets in Sydney last week.

5 units Novak at 1.66 (William Hill) +3.3

 

Albert Portas 2.62 ESP (18) vs. Andrew Ilie 1.62 AUS

- Portas has struggled to win a game on the rebound ace in the past, and nothing fires up the Aussie more than performing in his hometown of Melbourne. Let the shirt ripping begin.

8 units Ilie at 1.62 (Sportingodds) -8

 

Alex Corretja 1.45 ESP (14) vs. James Blake 3.00 USA

- Very interesting match-up. Promising American all but defeated Hewitt at the US Open. Went down to Sa in final round of Auckland qualifying, but definitely has what it takes to cause a big boilover in his first match at Melb Park. Corretja used Kooyong as warm-up here with losses to Sampras and Kafelnikov and a three set dead-rubber win over Haas.

3 units Blake at 3.00 (Sporting/Paddy Power) +6

 

Ramon Delgado 1.83 PAR vs. Albert Montanes 2.22 ESP

- Ramon went through qualifying in Sydney last week and took Canas to three sets in the 1st round while Montanes has a win over Sanchez in Doha to his credit and a loss to Youzhny in 1st rnd Auckland. Going with the match fitness once again.

8 units Delgado at 1.83 (William Hill) +6.64

 

Paradorn Srichaphan 3.75 THA vs. Guillermo Canas 1.40 ARG (12)

- The Thai has been in great form recently and will look to reverse the Chennai final result from a fortnight ago after going down to Canas 4/6 6/7. A win against Grosjean last week in Sydney will give him more confidence. The 11/4 certainly does look over the odds.

2 units Srichaphan at 3.75 (William Hill) -2

 

Nikolay Davydenko 1.65 RUS vs. Markus Hipfl 2.37 AUT

- H-H 0-1. Promising Russian notched up a win against Youzhny and a tight loss against Kafelnikov in Doha a fortnight ago, while Hipfl went down to the in-form Novak in three sets in the same tournament. Davydenko lost to Rafter in the second round here last year and looks a very solid bet to win in this one.

5 units Davydenko at 1.65 (Interwetten)  -5

 

Adrian Voinea 1.67 ROM vs. David Sanchez 2.37 ESP

- Voinea is first-up in '02 here but should have few concerns disposing of the Spaniard who is lost off the dirt. A 1st round loss to Montanes in Doha was indicative of this.

5 units Voinea at 1.67 (Various) +3.35


MULTI-BET:

 

Tommy Robredo 1.29 ESP (32) vs. Michael Russell 4.33 USA

H-H 2-0. The young Spaniard is on a nice run. Had a big win over Federer in the recent Hopman Cup, and while the result was reversed in 1st rnd Sydney he was not disgraced going down in two tiebreaks. Include in multi's.

 

Tim Henman 1.10 GBR (6) vs. Todd Larkham 11.00 AUS

- The Brit should cruise through this one. Wildcard Aussie to provide no contest with the 1/10 looking huge overs if there is such a thing!

 

Mark Philippoussis 1.10 AUS vs. Galo Blanco 11.00 ESP

- The Scud to have too much firepower. Include in multi's at 1/10.

 

Nicolas Massu 2.62 CHI vs. Jonas Bjorkman 1.57 SWE

- Massu had a couple of wins in Adelaide, but the veteran Swede defeated Safin last week in Auckland and will have the experience to get through this one.

 

Jiri Vanek 4.33 CZE vs. Younes El Aynaoui 1.22 MAR (21)

- The Czech defeated Bhupathi and Okun before retiring in the quarters in Chennai against Canas. El Anynaoui is a former quarter finalist at Melbourne Park and his recent win in Doha will ensure he gets past this one.

 

(5 units at 2.99) +10

OTHER MATCHES - SELECTIONS IN BOLD (Best early prices):

 

Sebastien Grosjean 1.20 FRA (5) vs. Juan Balcells 5.50 ESP 

- The draw opens up nicely for the Frenchman if he can get through this one. The Spaniard had a tight loss to eventual semi finalist Kucera in the first round at Chennai while Grosjean had a 1st round loss to the in-form Scrichaphan in Sydney. Last year's semi-finalist should be too strong, but a definite danger game first-up.

 

Martin Lee 3.10 GBR vs. Francisco Clavet 1.40 ESP

- Veteran Spaniard showed some form last week when defeating Gambill love and six in 1st round Auckland. Lee is playing his first Aus Open, failed in qualifying in Sydney last week and will struggle against a more experienced opponent.

 

Andrea Gaudenzi 2.10 ITA vs. Richard Fromberg 1.90 AUS

- Very tough match-up. The lowly Aussie qualified in Adelaide and did take a set of eventual champion Henman in the first round.

 

Lars Burgsmuller 3.25 GER vs. Dominik Hrbaty 1.44 SVK

- The inconsistent Hrbaty lost to Calatrava in R16 Chennai and 1st round in Auckland to qualifier Elseneer. The German did reach the 3rd round here last year and does look big overs at the 9/4.

 

Jerome Golmard 1.50 FRA vs. Wayne Arthurs 2.75 AUS

- Big serving Aussie might find this a little tough. Golmard reached the final last week in Auckland and defeated Arthurs 4 and 0 in Adelaide a fortnight ago. The Aussie does lift for Melb Park, but this looks like one to avoid.

 

Martin Damm 5.50 CZE vs. Goran Ivanisevic 1.20 CRO (10)

- H-H 0-3. The big-serving Croatian is still bothered by a troublesome shoulder but should be able to get through this one with one arm.

 

Cyril Saulnier 1.90 FRA vs. Stefan Koubek 1.60 AUT

- French qualifier to struggle against the Austrian.

 

Max Mirnyi 1.30 BLR vs. Kristian Pless 3.75 DEN

- Max impressed last week in Sydney with three solid wins before losing to the in-form Chela in the SF. Should have the Danes measure.

 

Ivo Heuberger 4.00 SUI vs. Hicham Arazi 1.36 MAR (22)

- Arazi retired versus Malisse in 1st round Sydney last week with blisters on his left hand. The gutsy Moroccan did play well in Adelaide the week before to reach the semis but this looks like one to avoid.

 

Sargis Sargsian ARM vs. Fernando Gonzalez CHI

- Gonzalez has the three qualifiers under his belt after some solid play in the Auckland qualies. Sargisian on the other hand only has a heavy loss to clay courter Squillari in Doha to his credit in 2002. Go with the match fitness.

 

Alex Kim 2.00 USA vs. Davide Sanguinetti 1.55 ITA

- Young American defeated number one seed Labadze in qualifying to make it into the main draw. Despite a 1st rnd loss to Schalken in Adelaide, looks a huge chance to get past the under-prepared Italian. 

 

Michael Kohlmann 7.00 GER vs. Yevgeny Kafelnikov 1.10 RUS (4)

- German does have straight sets wins through qualifying, but this will be tough.

 

Vladimir Voltchkov BLR vs. Cecil Mamiit USA

- Mamiit has charged through qualifying only dropping seven games in three matches which should be enough to get him past the struggling Belarusian.

 

Scott Draper 4.50 AUS vs. Greg Rusedski 1.30 GBR (28)

- H-H 0-7. Draper has played a lot of tennis recently and last week's warm-up at Kooyong which saw him have wins over Kafelnikov and Enqvist will have him brimming with confidence. The Brit did have a three set win against Draper in Adelaide, and of course is coming off a win in Auckland. Avoid.

 

Thomas Enqvist 1.20 SWE (24) vs. Nicolas Thomann 5.50 FRA

- Frenchman impressed in qualifying with win over Spadea but the Swede does look to getting back to his best form.

 

Thomas Johansson 1.17 SWE (16) vs. Jacobo Diaz 8.00 ESP

- A tough 1st round match up for the Swede. Not convinced that Johansson is right on top of his game at the moment, so I'll avoid this one.

 

Kenneth Carlsen 1.83 DEN vs. Fernando Vicente 2.00 ESP

- Very tough. The Spaniard has had wins in '02 over Alami and Knowle in Doha and Squillari in Auckland, but went down to Ulihrach one and one in Doha and Novak in Auckland. The rebound ace is certainly not his favourite surface, while Carlsen retired hurt (?) against Henman in Adelaide after losing the first set in a tiebreak. Avoid. 

 

Andreas Vinciguerra 1.44 SWE (31) vs. Federico Luzzi 3.50 ITA

- The young Swede showed some great form late in 2001 when reaching SF of TMS Paris. He has started '02 slowly however with a loss to Alberto Martin in Adelaide and Kiwi wildcard Nielsen in the 1st round of Auckland. Did reach the round of 16 here last year and should have too much for the promising Italian.

 

Taylor Dent 1.61 USA vs. Michal Tabara 2.38 CZE

- Dent had tight wins over Haas and Kaflenikov in the Kooyong lead-up. Tabara lost to van Scheppingen in Chennai, but had a win over dangerous qualfier Sa in Auckland before taking Rusedski to three tight sets. He did reach the third round here last year including a straight sets win over Canas, so this could be a tight one.

 


OUTRIGHT

Grosjean 3 units each/way at 19.00 (SportingOdds)
(Already holding Agassi 5 units to win at 6.50)



PAST PERFORMANCE:

Jan 6 - Jan 12 Sydney & Auckland +1.46 units
Dec 31 - Jan 6 Hopman Cup, Doha, Chennai, Adelaide +4.26 units
Nov 30 - Dec 2 Davis Cup Final +11.25 units
Nov 12-18 Masters Cup +10.05 units
Oct 29 - Nov 4 Masters Series Paris Indoor +35.675 units
Oct 22-28 Basel; Stockholm & St Petersburg  + 49.03 units
Oct 15-21 Masters Series Stuttgart -6.6 units
Oct 8-14 Vienna; Lyon

+28.25 units



MARKET WATCH
.
RUGBY LEAGUE
WORLD CUP
Australia 1.20
New Zealand 8.01
England 8.11
France 128.07

MARKET: PINNACLE SPORTS

.
FUTURES

 




AFL

 

2009 PREMIERSHIP

Geelong 3.41

Hawthorn 3.41

Western Bulldogs 12.98

St. Kilda 15.11

Collingwood 15.51

Carlton 20.02

Adelaide 21.00

Fremantle 23.26

Brisbane 26.01

Sydney 26.01

Port Adelaide 33.03

Richmond 33.03

Kangaroos 34.02

Essendon 46.04

West Coast 53.55

Melbourne 126.330

(At Pinnacle)

 



FUTURES


TENNIS

 

2008 AUSTRALIAN OPEN

R. Federer 2.71

R. Nadal 3.25

N. Djokovic 5.29

A. Murray 8.22

J. W. Tsonga 31.52

A. Roddick 38.82

N. Davydenko 54.97

D. Nalbandian 55.61

R. Gasquet 55.61

F. Gonzalez 90.12

D. Ferrer 96.35

M. Baghdatis 115.59

L. Hewitt 116.70

J. Blake 119.64

T. Haas 133.92

M. Safin 133.92

M. Youzhny 156.00

T. Berdych 156.00

(At Pinnacle)

 

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PREMIER LEAGUE 09
Chelsea 2.00
Man Utd 2.88
Liverpool 7.00
Arsenal 10.00
Aston Villa 81.00
(At Paddy Power)
.
CH. LEAGUE 2008/09
Chelsea 5.00
Barcelona 7.00
Manchester United 7.00
Inter Milan 7.50
Real Madrid 10.00
(At Victor Chandler)

 

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