AFL FINALS WEEK 2
GEELONG v SYDNEY
Geelong face Sydney once again in the finals but will be hoping for a better result than last year's prelim when they were comfortably beaten by 37 points.
The Swans also beat Geelong down at the Cattery a month back by 46 points although it must be mentioned that Patrick Dangerfield missed that game.
The Swans have the wood on Geelong in the last few years and have made a habit of starting with huge first quarters and then sitting back and making life hard for the Cats and hitting them on the rebound. That will again be there plan. They will rely heavily on Kennedy - Parker and Hannebery dominating the midfield contests. The Cats will need Dangerfield to find another level if they are over come the Swans here. Joel Selwood looked about 50% fit last week and they can't afford to have him labour around the field and not contributing. I suspect and expect the two dynamo mids will try to drag there side over the line on Friday night.
The other major issue for the Cats is trying to curb Buddy Franklin who has been back to his brilliant best in the past month. It only takes five mins of Buddy magic to turn a quarter or a game. It will be interesting to see if the Cats stick with Tom Lonergan on Buddy for one last time or they push Harry Taylor back. Either way they cannot allow Buddy to kick more than three goals.
For the Cats Tom Hawkins needs to kick at least 3 or more goals if they are any chance of kicking a winning score. Daniel Menzel back in the side should give them more scoring power up forward.
It's hard to look past Sydney here. They have lost just twice since losing the first six games and both losses were to the Hawks. They are playing full of confidence and don't have any major injury concerns. The Cats looked slow last week and devoid of much imagination. The Cats to win are going to need to kick 13+ goals and last week they could only manage five goals! The Swans tight defence led by Rampe and Grundy isn't going to be much easier this week.
I fancy Paddy Dangerfield to once again play out of his skin. Pride will see him drag himself to every contest and win plenty of ball. If he can use it a lot better than last week and kick a couple goals the Cats are a rough chance. But it's the Swans for me and we will go for them to win between the margin of 1-39 at even money. There is a bit of rain expected around Melbourne on Friday which will help with the margin betting.
We will also have something on Dangerfield to have most disposals in Group A.
GWS v WEST COAST
GWS back at home this Saturday night to West Coast have a great opportunity to have a good win and book themselves a prelim against the Tigers at the MCG the following week.
West Coast did the right thing for us last week by winning but it's hard to get excited about them when they kicked four early goals and then went two hours without kicking a goal and it was only when they went two goals down in extra time did they take some risks which resulted in quick goals.
One thing is for sure the extra time even if it was only ten mins wouldn't have done the Eagles any favours. The Giants will have had 9 days off between games while the Eagles will have flown to Adelaide back to Perth then a few days later fly to Sydney. The Eagles have plenty of experience and big bodied players but there lack of speed could be exposed here by the Giants if they can get there game together. The issue of course for the Giants is they have only shown glimpses of there 2016 form. Injuries have played a big part and a few players have had to carry heavier work loads this year. But the time if right for the GWS boys to stand up and put on a performance that warrants the them being pre season favourites.
Take the Giants at the minus -15.5 and also its worth backing them to cover the second half line with the thought that the eagles may struggle late in the game and the Giants may be fresher and running harder late.
WEEK RESULTS STAKES ROI Grand Final +9 11 82% Finals Week Three -4.2 12 -35% Finals Week Two +0.42 11 4% Finals Week One +7.18 11 65% Round Twenty-Three -9.09 21 -43% Round Twenty-Two +9.47 16 59% Round Twenty-One +8.55 13 66% Round Twenty -8 17 -47% Round Nineteen -9.2 13 -71% Round Eighteen +3.01 15 20% Round Seventeen +9.88 16 62% Round Sixteen -4.05 15 -27% Round Fifteen +0.12 13 1% Round Fourteen -2.48 15 -17% Round Thirteen +1.93 5 39% Round Twelve -6.3 14 -45% Round Eleven -2.1 9 -23% Round Ten -5.26 10 -53% Round Nine +4 11 36% Round Eight +10.01 9 111% Round Seven -10.26 17 -60% Round Six -2.4 14 -17% Round Five -12.3 18 -68% Round Four -5.21 11 -47% Round Three -1.16 10 -12% Round Two -11 11 -100% Round One -0.27 6 -5% Total -29.71 345 -9%