AFL Grand Final Plays


The 2017 Grand Final is here and we couldn't have asked for a better contest. I don't think anyone would argue that the two best sides are not there. Adelaide have been the top side all year and had two crushing victories over GWS and Geelong in the finals. Richmond have also defeated both those sides as equally impressively.

What a match up this looms to be, the manic pressure of the Tigers who like a to keep it tight then break out of defence with speed and attack through a small dangerous forward line against the highest scoring team in the Crows who have a lethal forward mix of Betts - Walker - Lynch - Jenkins and Cameron and an underrated midfield with Rory Sloane and the Crouch brothers and a solid back line led by Talia and Hartigan and the ball magnet Rory Laird.

When trying to pick the winner it's well worth noting the Tigers have been excellent at the MCG this year where they play every second week. The Tigers are 11 from 13 at the ground this year. The Crows have played only three times at the G. They defeated Hawthorn in Round 2 by 24 points after trailing by five goals early in the match. They had a hard fought win against Carlton in Round 15 by two goals and they had that epic game with Collingwood with resulted in a draw after the Pies led by 38 points at Half Time. So not a lot of games at the venue and not earth shattering form either.

The two sides met just the once this year with Adelaide destroying the Tigers by 13 goals in Round 6 in Adelaide. That game can almost be entirely disregarded.

I personally felt this was a betting game that looked hard to split on who should be faves. I was a touched surprised the Crows went up 1.65 -1.70 faves. The Crows have been the best side all year but they are not nearly as dangerous on the road and they have lost a couple very important players during the final series in Brodie Smith and Mitch McGovern. The Tigers have a full list to pick from. Momentum is massive this time of the year, we sure it last year with the Western Bulldogs and you get the feeling it could well be the year of the Tiger.

The Crows like to play the game on there terms and I can see Richmond denying them the space and time they lap up. Alex Rance will lead a very disciplined Tiger back line and if they can keep Eddie Betts and Tex Walker in line I think they will continue there stunning run and finally taste victory on Grand Final day since 1980.

Take the Tigers to win and at the line.

For Norm Smith Medal we will look past the obvious Dusty Martin and go for the value with Alex Rance who has been superb all year and expect nothing less on Saturday. For the Crows we will take the underrated ball magnet Matt Crouch who never plays a bad game.

OTP Recommendation

Richmond to Win5 at 2.25Bookie Image 1+6.25

OTP Recommendation

Richmond +6.5 points5 at 1.95Bookie Image 2+4.75

OTP Recommendation

Alex Rance Norm Smith Medal1 at 16.00Bookie Image 3-1

OTP Recommendation

Matt Crouch Norm Smith Medal1 at 8.00Bookie Image 4-1

otp odds

    Grand Final +9 11 82%
    Finals Week Three -4.2 12 -35%
    Finals Week Two +0.42 11 4%
    Finals Week One +7.18 11 65%
    Round Twenty-Three -9.09 21 -43%
    Round Twenty-Two +9.47 16 59%
    Round Twenty-One +8.55 13 66%
    Round Twenty -8 17 -47%
    Round Nineteen -9.2 13 -71%
    Round Eighteen +3.01 15 20%
    Round Seventeen +9.88 16 62%
    Round Sixteen -4.05 15 -27%
    Round Fifteen +0.12 13 1%
    Round Fourteen -2.48 15 -17%
    Round Thirteen +1.93 5 39%
    Round Twelve -6.3 14 -45%
    Round Eleven -2.1 9 -23%
    Round Ten -5.26 10 -53%
    Round Nine +4 11 36%
    Round Eight +10.01 9 111%
    Round Seven -10.26 17 -60%
    Round Six -2.4 14 -17%
    Round Five -12.3 18 -68%
    Round Four -5.21 11 -47%
    Round Three -1.16 10 -12%
    Round Two -11 11 -100%
    Round One -0.27 6 -5%
    Total -29.71 345 -9%

back to top

must be 18 +