Round Seventeen AFL Picks


GWS Giants v Richmond Tigers

The reigning premiers will leave Melbourne for the fourth time this season and head to Sydney to tackle the GWS Giants. The Tiger-juggernaught has chugged on comfortably this past month, accounting for the Adelaide Crows by 47 last week. The Giants return from the west coast with a L on their record as they failed to take advantage of a depleted West Coast Eagles outfit. 

Once bitten, twice shy, but in our case - six times (this season) taking on the Tigers and we've well and truly learnt our lesson. The Tigers are just starting to have their depth tested now but we think they'll be able to cover their losses. The Tigers won't be belting the Giants off the park and if the Giants want to win this game, they know they'll need to play the Tigers 'grind' game. Take the 'Unders' in this matchup as we think this could be end to end action, just without the scoring.  

OTP Recommendation

Total Point Under 158.52.0u at 1.92Bookie Image 1+1.84

Collingwood Magpies v West Coast Eagles

The form team of the competition at the moment were able to extend their winning streak to seven last week when the Magpies were able to hold off a hungry Bombers team. West Coast were also on the winners list when they handled the GWS Giants back in Perth. Both teams here were marginal winners last week, winning by 11 and 16 points respectively. 

Collingwood increased their win streak to seven games last week as they staved off the Bombies in a back and forward tustle at the 'G. The Bombers took a late blow in the lead up to the game when Orazio Fantasia become a late out for the Bombers, which saw us sway out pick to the Magpies. The Pies currently sit second on the ladder at the moment and the proposition of taking top spot (with a convincing win) is now a real possibility after the ladder-leading Tigers fell last night. Of all the possible inclusions the Pies had available to them, Darcy Moore and Travis Varcoe were the two that made the list for this clash. Will Hoskin Elliott looked to have injured himself through the mid-stages of the game last week but appears to have recovered nicely enough to go again here. Mason Cox and Flynn Appleby will step aside for the incoming aforementioned. All the chat has been around the West Coast squad and their returning players for this game. Some serious firepower comes back into the West Coast forward line with Darling, LeCras, Kennedy and Waterman rounding out the inclusions for the Eagles. Last week the Eagles were able to roll a hot Giants team (that is surging themselves towards finals) and we believe the form will stand up from that game, seeing as they've since come out and beaten the reigning premiers last night.

This matchup has potential to be a good old fashioned slugfest. Both teams have premiership credentials and the winner of this matchup has potential home ground advantage up for grabs for one of these two teams. If the West Coast guns find their feet quickly enough in their return game then they could very well return to their early season form and ruffle the Pies feathers here. However, if they don't, take the Eagles plus handicap as they'll keep this contest within reaching distance for a long time.  

OTP Recommendation

West Coast Eagles +11.52.0u at 1.92Bookie Image 2+1.84

North Melbourne v Sydney Swans

The Sydney Swans head to Melbourne to tackle the North Melbourne Kangaroos after getting belted last week on the scoreboard and on the injury list. The Swans fell to the Cats on their home deck in Sydney in round 16 while the Kangaroos went about their business last Sunday, accounting for the Gold Coast Suns comfortably. 

Sydney was surprisingly flat last week against the Cats. We were looking to see the Swans rebound and account for the Cats on their own home deck but just failed to show up. What can be contributed to this was the amount of injuries sustained from the Swans midfield throughout the game. Hannebury, who has been out of form as it is, has injured his calf and will not make the trip to Melbourne. Kieren Jack also failed to recover in time from his injury and the most significant injury from last week comes from the Swans backline in Jarrad McVeigh who broke his collarbone. Josh Kennedy remains the sole leader of this Swans midfield who is severely under performing at the moment and was telling when he was the only player to accumulate 25+ touches last week against the Cats. North Melbourne continued their surprise-packet season by notiching another win and firmly putting themselves into finals contention. Cameron Zurhaar was unable to recover from his injury last week which has pathed the way for debutant, Alex Morgan to step up to the plate. North Melbourne are one player away from full strength and will also enjoy returning back to Melbourne, to Etihad stadium, where they can dictate games on their own terms a little more. 

I've had this game pegged from the moment McVeigh injured his collarbone last week against the Cats, seeing as we covered that game here. The Swans are limping into this contest and North will be licking their lips to take the Swans on. Take North Melbourne to win this game as they lower the colours of the Swans and continue their own march towards September action. 

OTP Recommendation

North Melbourne To Win3.0u at 2.05Bookie Image 3-3

    Grand Final -10 10 -100%
    Finals Week Three -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Finals Week Two +7.53 7.5 100%
    Finals Week One +8.45 13 65%
    Round Twenty-Two -4.7 13.25 -35%
    Round Twenty-One -4 13 -31%
    Round Twenty +3.76 10 38%
    Round Nineteen -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Round Eighteen -7.75 14 -55%
    Round Seventeen +0.68 7 10%
    Round Sixteen -4.11 12 -34%
    Round Fifteen -8.5 8.5 -100%
    Round Fourteen +6.5 8 81%
    Round Thirteen -7 7 -100%
    Round Twelve -0.72 5.5 -13%
    Round Eleven -2.93 7.5 -39%
    Round Ten +1.5 8 19%
    Round Nine +7.84 8.5 92%
    Round Eight +3.5 8 44%
    Round Seven +2.35 7.25 32%
    Round Six +1.15 5.5 21%
    Round Five +5.32 9 59%
    Round Four -2.1 6.5 -32%
    Round Three -0.35 5.5 -6%
    Round Two -1.5 6 -25%
    Round One +2.56 6 43%
    Futures -6 6 -100%
    Total -27.52 231.5 -12%

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