AFL Finals Week One Picks

AFL Finals Week One

Richmond Tigers v Hawthorn Hawks

First qualifying final of the final series and the reigning premiers will step up on their home deck against a Hawthorn team that scapped and clawed their way into the top four to earn themselves a shot here. Both the Tigers and the Hawks finished their home and away season on a seven game winning streak to really set the stage for a clash of two teams that have NEVER met in the finals in the history of the game. The Hawks will get galvanize their backline with James Sicily and James Frawley both returning to the squad. On the flip, the Tigers dropped last year's premiership player Brandon Ellis examplifying how tight the reigning premiers are for positions in their squad.

You're a brave punter to want to take on the Tigers at the MCG any time, let alone in the first week of an AFL final but we're inclined to think that Alistair Clarkson, the best coach in the game at the moment, will have a tactful plan to tackle the reigning premiers. We're edging with the Hawthorn handicap tonight in what would could a very tense ride to the end. Hawks to cover and really make the Tiges work for this in the first game of the final series.

OTP Recommendation

Hawthorn +15.52.0u at 2-2

Melbourne Demons v Geelong Cats

First elimination final of the finals series and the Geelong Cats will take on the fairytale team of this year (Dogs '16, Tiges '17), the Melbourne Demons who return to the finals for the first time in twelve long years. Its been a long wait for Demons and their supporters but it appears the wait has finally paid off. The Cats managed to scrape their way into another finals series off the back of two 100-point wins in the final fortnight of the home and away season that catipulted their percentage into untouchable territory to the chasing division. The Demons were able to lift their own hoo-doo off their own back in the closing stages of the home and away season, rattling off back to back wins against top eight opposition for the first time in the season. Jack Viney will make his welcomed return to the Demons lineup that will bolster what is arguably the most dominant midfielder going around in the competition at the moment.

Cannot help but feel that the Cats were extremely blessed to have beaten the Demons on both occassions this season. Ironically both match-deciding kicks come after the siren and have been to the detriment to the Demons on both occassions. Third time will be the charm for the Demons here who will add to the Cats deplorable 1-11 record SU playing right after a bye. Demons win here and continue their storied finals return.

OTP Recommendation

Melbourne Demons To Win3.0u at 1.8+2.4

Sydney Swans v GWS Giants

A mouth watering clash for the AFL with a traditional derby to play out in Sydney with the GWS Giants and the Sydney Swans playing out the second elimination final for the round. The Swans were a big showing to finish in the top four heading into the last round of the home and away season, however the loss to Hawthorn resulted in them dropping to sixth and playing their little brother of the competition in the first week of the finals. Lance Franklin and Luke Parker were the surprise omissions in the leadup to that matchup against the Hawks and they have now been named to return to the squad with a fortnight to recover from their injuries. The Giants, who lost their final two games of the home and away season, will also welcome back pivotal players that will significantly improve their chances here. Toby Greene who has also missed his fair share of footy will headline the Ins for the Giants here. 

We covered this matchup three weeks ago when these two locked horns and our play is going to be the same today as it was then. The Swans were 20-point victors that night but the unseen story from then was the injuries the Giants took in the run of that game. Most notably, Phil Davis was unable to finish the game with what we now know as a hip pointer contusion. The Swans have had alot of 'good luck' fall their way in the past month, dating back to the 'off the ground soccer kick' that one them the game against the Collingwood Magpies, who we're also taking on this weekend, going back a month now. Lucks out for the Swans, Giants win to set up a date with the Magpies next week.

OTP Recommendation

GWS Giants To Win3.0u at 2.15+3.45

West Coast Eagles v Collingwood Magpies

The second qualifying final of the round and we're heading to the west coast as the Eagles and the Magpies will lock it up to see who will be having next week off. The Eagles and the Magpies finished second and third respectively on the ladder this could've very well have been played in Melbourne had results gone differently in the final round of the home and away season. This matchup has a slew of players returning to both sides and with Josh Kennedy and Adam Treloar leading the charges. Treloar has missed a touch under three months of footy with a double hamstring injury while Josh Kennedy has missed accumalatively about the same time with a leg/shin injury that has been hindering him trhoughout the year.

Bet of the weak! In the leadup to this matchup, since the Magpies bye back in round thirteen, they've played three teams in the top eight for a 0-3 SU record. In that same span, they have ironically played seven teams that are already into their offseasons for a 7-0 SU record. The Eagles have had a week to hype the first finals game held at the venue and you have to imagine half of WA will be doing their best to get there. Eagles dominate the Pies and establish themselves as a real threat to the Tigers. 

OTP Recommendation

West Coast Eagles -10.55.0u at 1.92+4.6

    Grand Final -10 10 -100%
    Finals Week Three -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Finals Week Two +7.53 7.5 100%
    Finals Week One +8.45 13 65%
    Round Twenty-Two -4.7 13.25 -35%
    Round Twenty-One -4 13 -31%
    Round Twenty +3.76 10 38%
    Round Nineteen -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Round Eighteen -7.75 14 -55%
    Round Seventeen +0.68 7 10%
    Round Sixteen -4.11 12 -34%
    Round Fifteen -8.5 8.5 -100%
    Round Fourteen +6.5 8 81%
    Round Thirteen -7 7 -100%
    Round Twelve -0.72 5.5 -13%
    Round Eleven -2.93 7.5 -39%
    Round Ten +1.5 8 19%
    Round Nine +7.84 8.5 92%
    Round Eight +3.5 8 44%
    Round Seven +2.35 7.25 32%
    Round Six +1.15 5.5 21%
    Round Five +5.32 9 59%
    Round Four -2.1 6.5 -32%
    Round Three -0.35 5.5 -6%
    Round Two -1.5 6 -25%
    Round One +2.56 6 43%
    Futures -6 6 -100%
    Total -27.52 231.5 -12%

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