GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 25TH MAY
This weekend we’re heading back to Eagle Farm for Kingsford-Smith Cup day. With the track expected to have plenty of give in it, maybe the outside fence is not the worst place to be. There are six group races on the exciting eight race program with the group 1 Kingsford-Smith the highlight. This year we have the deserved favourite Black Heart Bart on the quick back-up and he’s remained solid at the $3.50 mark. There’s been some good support for wet tracker Jungle Edge who got his own way in front in the BRC sprint last Saturday, he opened up $17 now in to $9.00. Others in the market include Derryn ($6.00) and Counterattack ($7.00), who both put in solid performances behind Redzel in the Doomben 10,000.
The group 2 Sires’ Produce is also a major drawcard for punters and looks to be wide open, with form lines difficult to marry up. We have two Trans-Tasman visitors, Melody Belle ($4.20) and the promising colt Qiji Phoenix ($8.50). Waller has a solid chance with Tangled ($5.50) but I think All Too Huiying is fantastic odds at $14. He ran a nice race behind tangled in the Champagne Classic when he couldn’t get clear and between you and me, I don’t think there should be such a big price discrepancy.
Tip: Prized Icon to win Race 5 Eagle Farm ($3.40)
Queensland is in an unfamiliar and perhaps uncomfortable position five days out from the 2017 State Of Origin series – they’re favourites! Our bookies opened the Maroons at $1.75 and the Blues as $2.10 outsiders after the respective team announcements. However, money has been pouring in for the Blues ever since, so much so, that they are in to $2.00 and the Maroons are out to $1.83. At this stage, the ratio of bets and money are both running 4:1 in New South Wales’ favour, which means it’s likely they may firm in a little more before kick-off.
Origin also means abridged NRL rounds and this week, there are only four games. Souths-Parra is the first cab off the rank on Friday night and, although both teams turned in ‘mixed bag’ performances last week, footy fans feel the $2.10 underdog Eels are in the best positon to atone. Making the Eels with the two point head start a very popular selection. New Zealand seemingly forgot how to tackle last week but, despite their defensive woes, there is strong support for them to bounce back on Saturday at $1.45 and beat an understrength Broncos team who are missing six State Of Origin stars. Brisbane is $2.60 out to $2.75 and easing. Cronulla go in warm $1.55 favourites against Canterbury on Saturday night, but early shoppers seems to think the Sharks are no sure thing. Their three best players are on rep duty, their three losses in 2017 have all been at Shark Park and the Dogs have won their last three at the venue. Canberra wrap up the round when they play the Sydney Roosters on Sunday afternoon. Under Ricky Stuart, the ‘Green Machine’ has won their last three home games against the ‘Chooks’ and with Pearce, Cordner and Guerra on rep duty, the market gives the Raiders every chance to improve that figure by one. Normally ‘futures’ betting is quiet during the Origin series but this week we took a $10,000 bet for Manly to make the final 8 at $1.80.
Tip: Parramatta to beat South Sydney ($2.05)
The upsets in AFL continue, but the ‘comebacks’ are becoming frequent as well. We had a couple of big ones last week, the GWS and Collingwood. It’s still hard to fathom how Richmond were run down, and no doubt several punters feel the same way as evidenced by a lot of the ‘live’ betting activity. While there was money for GWS during the game, Richmond did attract one big bet of $10,000 at $1.11 at three quarter time. Hawthorn also got in to a similar quote against Collingwood, but in a rather bizarre game, not only did Collingwood win, but they also covered the 15.5 point line!
Currently we have GWS and Adelaide as equal flag fav’s at $4.25. The GWS have been getting by with a depleted list through injuries, so they will not be getting out too far. The Sydney Swans are $13 after being $81 a month ago. They have looked good in their recent wins, but will they finish in the 8? And most importantly will they finish high enough to avoid four away-from-home sudden death matches? If you think the latter is a doubt, then $13 is under the odds and the value lies elsewhere.
Paddy Dangerfield is back in to Brownlow favourite at $4.50 after an amazing performance last week, with Rory Sloane out to $5.50.Tom Mitchell shortened again, now $17, although he played in a beaten side.
This week the final match of the round is probably the one that will have most effect on the flag market. The West Coast return home after that insipid performance against Essendon, but it looks like GWS will have trouble picking a side, claiming they only have 26 fit players on their list to pick from. That news has turned punters away, the Giants have been $2.20 out to $2.45 already and there is no sign of the ‘drift’ stopping.
Tip: Gold Coast against Melbourne +13.5 ($1.90)
All eight favourites won in Super Rugby last weekend, the third time this season that all favourites have won, but on this occasion, all eight fav’s also covered the line. The finals are approaching, so we will have matches for the next two weeks, and then it gets a bit messy with rep football on for the next month or so. The Crusaders continued on their winning way beating the Chiefs in Suva, and are in to $2.50 to win the title, but oddly enough there is still very little interest in the Crusaders. The Hurricanes are at $3.75 and have attracted a lot more $$$ than the Crusaders, with the Lions next at $5.00 and the Chiefs at $5.50. The Highlanders are running in to some good form and are the only other side considered any chance at $8.00. The Lions on the other hand have been deserted by punters, probably due to the fact that they have had the ‘soft’ draw this season, but they are winning, and will get a good draw through the finals.
This week we have a mixture of short priced favourites and some competitive looking matches. The Reds will be at home to the Force on Friday night, and although the Force have a good recent record against the Reds (won 4 of the last 6 including the last 2), punters expect to see a win for the Reds and have been happy to take the $1.40. The Highlanders haven’t lost to an Aussie side in over a year, and that statistic doesn’t look like changing when they host the Waratahs on Saturday. The Waratahs can still win the Australian conference but are a lengthy $6.25 to win this match. The Brumbies are also still in the mix to win that Conference, but have to try and get a win in Argentina on Sunday, no easy task. The Brumbies have struggled to score away from home this year (only averaging 19.5 points), but on the flip side, the jaguares have also had a disappointing season, and have now lost five of their last six matches. It is a match that the Brumbies are capable of winning though, and they need to.
Tip: Sunwolves to beat the Cheetahs ($2.00)
The Dean & Deluca Invitational is the US PGA Tour event this week and it will be played at the Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. Jordan Spieth is the defending champ and also finished in a tie for second in 2015, but hasn’t had the best of seasons so far. Spieth is still the $10 favourite with Jon Rahm ($12) next. UBET golf fans have shown a distinct liking for Spieth to get back into the winners circle. Sergio Garcia is the other popular playing option at $17, and outside of those, Paul Casey ($26) and last week’s Byron Nelson winner, Billy Horschell ($41) are others who have been met with support. Marc Leishman is the shortest of the Australian contingent at $34.
In Europe, Justin Rose heads the market to win the BMW PGA Championship at $14, narrowly ahead of Henrik Stenson at $13.
Tip: Zach Johnson to win the Dean and Deluca International ($34)
The Pacquiao v Horn fight is still nearly six weeks away, but there is some serious money being invested on this bout. At the moment, Horn is the outsider at $4.30, but the ratio of bets is running 6: 1 in his favour, however we often see that when there is an Aussie in action. Pacquiao is currently $1.22 after touching $1.25 last week and, there are plenty of 4 figure bets coming for him, with the most recent being $5,000 at $1.23 last weekend. ‘The Pacman’ remains $1.90 to win by decision in the ‘method of result’ market, but amazingly that particularly option has failed to attract a bet yet, with punters preferring Pacquiao to win by decision at $3.00.
While the pay deal between Cricket Australia and the players keeps bubbling along, the Champions Trophy is also less than six weeks away from starting, and UBET have opened up several extra markets. Australia and England head the betting at $4.00 ahead of the well-backed South Africa at $5.00, but there is also plenty of money coming in for India at $5.50. The market for most overall runs for the tournament has created plenty of interest with Joe Root, Steve Smith and Dave Warner leading the way there at $10, with the early money for Smith. Most runs and most wickets markets are already available for seven of the competing sides, and Smith and Warner are the $3.25 co-favourites to top the Aussie totals. But the early money there has been for Chris Lynn ($4.50) who has had an injury interrupted 12 months and we know what he is capable of. Mitch Stark is the narrow $3.50 favourite to grab the most wickets, ahead of Pat Cummins ($3.75) and Josh Hazlewood ($4.00).
The 2016/2017 EPL season is over, so now we look ahead to next season. The market is open to win the title, and while normally there would be three, perhaps four main hopes, there are six sides under $10. Man City open $3.60 favourites, but early shoppers have been keen to take the $7.00 Tottenham and the $8.00 Arsenal. There will be a lot more ‘futures’ markets available in the coming weeks, as teams make changes to their playing rosters.
The French Open starts this weekend, and UBET will have a full coverage throughout the two weeks, with ‘live’ betting on practically every match! There has been a lot of movement to win both titles, and for different reasons. Rafael Nadal was beaten last week and that has seen his price drift from $1.70 out to $1.90. While the overdue win for Novak Djokovic saw his price crash from $6.00 to $4.25. Dominic Thiem was considered the ‘smokie’ when betting first opened several months ago, but the secret is out as his form, both recently and in Paris last year, has seen his price crumble to $11 and third favourite. Alexander Zverev has been the other big mover after opening at $151 now in to $17. Andy Murray is completely friendless and has blown from $4.50 out to $15.
Maria Sharapova was the $5.50 equal favourite to win the women’s title before her path to the tournament was blocked. With Serena Williams also out, Simona Halep now finds herself the $4.00 favourite. Elina Svitolina is one of the form players at the moment and is second pick at $7.50 ahead of Garbine Muguruza at $9.00. Kristina Mladenovic was $151 in the original opening market, but is now on the fourth line of betting at $15. There has been a much wider spread of money amongst the women this year, and there does appear to be a lot of winning chances.
As we have mentioned in the past, the Monaco GP is always one of the more popular events on the calendar with UBET punters, no doubt due to the scenery around the streets of Monaco. It is also the tightest course that they have to race on each year, and that is why it is imperative to qualify up at the front of the grid. Lewis Hamilton ($2.10) just noses out Sebastian Vettel ($2.30) for favouritism going into the weekend, with Valtteri Bottas next in line at $7.50. That trio have won all five races conducted so far this season with Vettel and Hamilton chalking up two wins (Hamilton won the last race in Spain), and Bottas having won the other. Hamilton did win here last year and is also a previous winner in 2011, and Vettel won in 2011, so both know how to win in Monaco. UBET punters have shown an early preference for Hamilton, but there has also been money for both Max Verstappen ($15) and Daniel Ricciardo ($15).
Tip: Hamilton to won the Monaco GP ($2.10)
Scott McLauchlin and Shane Van Gisbergen won the two races conducted at Winton over the weekend. While there is a gap now before the next meeting in Darwin, it is worth pointing out the strange set of prices available to win the Drivers’ Championship. Van Gisbergen leads the points total on 150 ahead of Jamie Whincup (138), Fabian Coulthard (129), Cameron Waters (120) and then McLauchlin (111), but apart from Waters, the other four are the equal $3.50 favourites, making it one of the most open seasons we have ever had.
Donington has hosted the Superbikes for the past three years and Tom Sykes has won all six races conducted there in that time. Unfortunately, Sykes just hasn’t been able to regain that form this season. While he must still be considered as some hope of winning, the two races this week should be fought out by Jonathan Rea and Chaz Davies. Rea got off to a flying start this season winning seven of the first eight races, but Chaz Davies won both races in Italy a fortnight ago, and also won the other earlier race that Rea didn’t. So the form says that duo are the ones to beat and the betting will say the same, with Rea favourite to win race 1 on Saturday ahead of Davies.
* Prices are correct 3pm Thursday.