GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 1ST JUNE
It’s Queensland Oaks day on Saturday! The big race will be run at Doomben over 2200m instead of the traditional 2400m. Chris Waller has seven runners in the race and many solid chances, the shortest being the favourite Egg Tart ($3.40). She’s a classy filly and if she can take out the Oaks, it will bring up her sixth straight win. Other runners include the Roses winner Kenedna ($4.40), Dawn wall ($8.00) and Oaklahoma girl ($9.00). There is early support for the Victorian visitor Shenandoah, she’s been $26 in to $18. Keep an eye on the lightly raced improver Mia Rosa ($35), I think this little filly will run a cheeky race at odds.
Other high quality races include the two group 2’s, the O’Shea Stakes and the Moreton Cup. The O’Shea Stakes is race 4 and only a six horse field. The early money is for Preferment ($4.40 in to $3.60) and Single Gaze ($3.20 in to $3.00). The Moreton Cup is a wide-open race with The Virginian, Deploy and Attention all currently $6.00. The experienced Dothraki is at $7.00 and Splurge is looking to make amends at the $7.50 quote. The balance of the races are all listed quality, so I’m looking forward to a fantastic day at Doomben.
Tip: Egg Tart to win the Qld Oaks ($3.40)
Origin 1-NSW win 28-4, can QLD come back from that to win the series? The stats say no and the betting suggests it is a no as well. Within minutes of game 1 finishing, UBET opened up game 2 and the series betting, and QLD are now lengthy outsiders. The Maroons are $4.25 to win the two remaining games and are $2.45 to win in Sydney, with the Blues $1.55. The opening line is -4.5 points, and there has been early money for the Blues at the minus. The critics expect Billy Slater to come back into the QLD side, but there is still a big doubt hovering over the availability of JT, but will any changes be enough to turn around a big 24 point loss? Plus the Blues will be at home!
There will be a few casualties this week in the NRL after Wednesday night’s match, and possibly some players will also be rested. Normally this round is quiet from a betting perspective until it’s clear who is in or out, and that may not happen until game day. One match that Origin hasn’t affected is the Parramatta v Warriors match on Friday night. The Eels are favourite’s at $1.67, have won two of their last three matches against the Warriors. The Warriors have a poor record at ANZ Stadium having won only at 6 of their last 16 appearances. Both sides will be looking for the 2 points as they need to stay in touch with the top 8.
Tip: Gold Coast to beat North Queensland ($2.60)
After an against-all-odds win on Sunday, GWS have joined Adelaide in flag betting at $3.75. The brave win by the Giants was pretty impressive given who they had out. With a good draw ahead, and players starting to come back into the side, they look on track for a top 2 finish. Adelaide is the other main contender for one of those spots according to our AFL analysts. The Giants and the Crows are each $2.25 to win the minor premiership. The win by the Giants over West Coast has seen the flag odds price for the Eagles crash from $10 out to $15, and now they have a major injury concern with gun forward Josh Kennedy. The Coleman Medal market has had a major shake-up following the injury to Kennedy and he drifts out to $4.50, now on the third line behind Buddy Franklin at $2.75, and Jeremy Cameron at $3.25.
This week features part of the split round, so there will only be 6 matches. The Eagles have a real ‘danger’ match when they travel to the Gold Coast to take on the Suns. The Suns were poor in the second half against Melbourne in Alice Springs last week, but they have been met with support at $2.30, due to a strong chance that Gary Ablett will be back from injury.
Collingwood travel to Perth to play Fremantle on Sunday, and although Fremantle have won their last two at home against the Magpies, Collingwood have been one of the best backed sides this week. After opening at $2.15 on Monday, the word is, not all is well with Dockers star Nat Fyfe and Collingwood has firmed in to $1.95. If Fyfe is ruled out, the Pies might even start favourites.
No doubt the game of the round is Geelong v Adelaide on Friday night. Paddy Dangerfield and Joel Selwood have been the catalysts behind a return to winning form for the Cats over the last two rounds, but Crows fans have been active this week, backing them from $1.80 into $1.75. The stats say it isn’t a foregone conclusion, as Geelong have won their last nine home matches against Adelaide, the last four of those by 25 plus points.
Tip: Gold Coast Suns to beat West Coast ($2.20)
The end of the season proper for Super Rugby is fast approaching, but for the next month or so we have this weird situation where the rounds are either split up, or sides don’t play at all, and it’s all to do with the tests that each of the respective Countries have to play. There are only five games this week, and they will only be between the Australian and NZ sides and four of those appear very one sided on paper. The standout match will be when the Crusaders play the Highlanders early Saturday afternoon. The Crusaders remain unbeaten after 13 matches, but the Highlanders are running in to form at the right time. The Highlanders are the $3.35 outsiders in this match, and there has been some early interest in them, probably due to the fact that they have beaten the Crusaders two of their last three outings.
The Reds were woeful against the Force last week, and although they have had the better of the Blues over recent seasons (four wins and a draw from last six meetings), very few rate them any hope against the Blues on Friday night. The Reds are despised outsiders at $5.50, and even the line of -15.5 for them ($1.90) hasn’t been attractive to punters.
Tip: Highlanders +7.5 v Crusaders ($1.90)
The Champions Trophy gets under way in England this week, and while form going in to these tournaments can sometimes be a bit misleading, it was hard to miss the dismal performance by the host nation against South Africa on Monday of this week. England were bundled out for 153 in 31 overs, which the South Africans reached inside 29 overs. However punters have put that result aside, as England remain the $3.60 favourites to win the Trophy ahead of Australia at $4.00. Subsequent to that win, there has been solid support for South Africa at $4.50, and also India at $5.50. The first match of the tournament will be played on Thursday where England are $1.20 to beat Bangladesh, but the big one will be on Friday night when the Aussies play New Zealand. Both sides will love the conditions on offer in the UK, and while Australia are warm favourites at $1.50, NZ have their share of support at $2.60. UBET will have extensive coverage throughout each match, and most of the ‘futures’ markets will be updated on a daily basis.
Tip: NZ to beat Australia Friday night ($2.70)
Alex Noren won the BMW on the European Tour last week, and while Noren is the second pick at $8.00 to win the Nordea Masters this week, he is clearly the one to beat. Henrik Stenson is the $6.00 favourite with UBET, but apart from the fact that Noren won last week, he has also won 5 times on the Tour this season. On top of that he is a Swede (The Nordea will be played in Malmo), and he has also won this event twice before, in 2015 and 2011! Matthew Fitzpatrick is the defending champ, and he is currently $21.
The Memorial is the US PGA Tour event this week, and several of the main contenders in the US Open (on in two weeks) will be going around. Dustin Johnson is favourite for both, $6.50 to win The Memorial, but punters have shown a distinct preference for Jon Rahm ($13) and Jordan Spieth ($14) who finished in a tie for second behind Kevin Kisner last week. There are a stack of Aussies lining up this week, and Jason Day is the shortest of those at $15.
Tip: Jordan Spieth to win The Memorial ($14)
Maverick Vinales is back in to $1.85 to win the motoGP’s Riders Championship after winning at Le Mans a fortnight ago. The bikes will be in action in Italy this weekend and Vinales has opened at $3.50 to win there, but his main threats are right behind him, Marc Marquez at $3.50 and Valentino Rossi at $3.75. In early betting, the majority of the interest has been on Rossi. Jorge Lorenzo has won here the past 2 years, but as we have said recently, he is nowhere near that form this season, and is a fair way down the list at $13. Johan Varco has shown vast improvement recently, including a second behind Vinales in France and has been quite popular at $11.