GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 8TH JUNE
The biggest day of the Brisbane carnival is here, it’s Stradbroke day at Doomben on Saturday! It’s a spectacular nine race card with the three prestigious group 1’s, the Stradbroke Handicap, the Queensland Derby and the JJ Atkins. There are also three group 2’s and three listed quality races, including our own RadioTAB Wayne Wilson memorial over the 1600m (race 3). The Stradbroke is a very even race this year and Clearly Innocent is the favourite and has been easy, drifting out to $4.60. The fresh horse Mackintosh has been met with punter support, $8.50 in to $7.50. Other top chances include Ulmann ($9.50), Counterattack ($8.00) and the noted wet tracker Jungle Edge ($9.00).
Tip: Mackintosh to win the Stradbroke ($7.50)
Heats of the UBET Flying Amy and the UBET Gold Cup will be conducted at Albion Park on Thursday night. The heats feature all of the local stars, as well as several interstate raiders. There will be two big drawcards, Fanta Bale and the ‘Queen of Queensland’, Cyndies Magic, both engaged in the Gold Cup heats. Fanta Bale won the Sandown Cup at her last start and has now won a Group 1 over the sprint, middle and long distance trips, as well as over $700,000 in stake -money. Fanta Bale has drawn ok out in box 8 (race 6 on the programme) and is $1.57 fixed. Cyndies Magic was beaten last week, but has drawn the red box in race 8, the third heat of the Gold Cup. The champ is $2.50 with one of the Victorians, Dundee Calypso, favourite at $1.90. Dundee Calypso ran fifth behind Fanta Bale at Sandown, and while he has been in excellent form, he does need some room early, so could find some trouble from box 2.
Tip: Cyndies Magic to win Albion Park race 8 ($2.50)
Queensland punters are dropping off the Maroons like replete leeches ahead of game 2 of the State Of Origin series at ANZ Stadium in Sydney later this month. Soundly beaten 24-6 in game 1, the Maroons are absolutely unwanted at $2.55, while support continues to stream in for the Blues at $1.52. At this early stage, about eight times more money has been bet on New South Wales and the kicker is, most of that money is from Queensland residents! So much for loyalty.
We should see something akin to an Origin atmosphere tomorrow night in the NRL Round 14 opener between arch-rivals the Sharks and the Storm. Cronulla has a handy recent record against Melbourne, winning three of their last four clashes, but, even so, our bookies and customers are both having trouble figuring out who wins. The contest is $1.92 each of two and investment is split 50:50, straight down the middle.
Friday Night Footy brings together the Broncos ($1.23) and the Bunnies ($4.25). Brisbane has won four straight against Souths and UBET punters give them every chance of improving that record by one. Corey Oates has scored five tries in their last three encounters and the big winger is a lock to be the top first-try-scorer selection. Punters also feel the penny has finally dropped for the Panthers and they’re loading up large on the ‘Mountain Men’ at $1.78 to pummel the Raiders at $2.05 on Saturday afternoon.
Tip: Parramatta to beat Nth Qld ($2.00)
There were several changes to the AFL ‘futures’ markets last weekend. The Crows were beaten by Geelong and that has seen their flag odds drift to $4.25 with the Giants back in to clear fav’s at $3.50. Port Adelaide smashed Hawthorn, and are now $6.50, and are the side that have attracted most money this week along with Richmond. The Tigers have been $41 in to $17 over the past few weeks, and even though they have been beaten in some close ones, they are currently firmly entrenched in the top 8. The Tigers form has mainly been due to the exploits of Dustin Martin, and he has joined Paddy Dangerfield at the head of Brownlow betting at $3.25. While Martin has been the standout for Richmond, Dangerfield would be in a battle for votes with Joel Selwood who is not the fourth pick at $9.00.
The Gold Coast landed a plunge when beating the Eagles at Metricon, and there has been a good early push for them to beat Hawthorn at the MCG on Saturday. The $2.25 about a Suns win has been well sought after, and on last week’s win, and the loss by the Hawks to Port, it does look value.
The Brisbane Lions are languishing at the bottom of the ladder, but they have admirers at home this week. They will host Fremantle, and have already been $3.65 into $3.15 with the line moving from 23.5 in to 19.5. Brisbane have been ok in patches this season, and the Dockers were again disappointing last weekend. They were beaten by a resurgent Collingwood, but unfortunately the Magpies picked up a stack of injuries, and they will struggle against Melbourne on Monday. This is a big day for the Demons due to their links with Neale Daniher, and although punters often find it hard to be on the Demons when favourites, they are keen this week! Melbourne have already firmed from $1.65 in to $1.55.
Tip: Western Bulldogs to beat Sydney ($2.15)
There is only one game of Super Rugby this week with a lot of tests due to be played around the world in the coming weeks. All five favourites won last weekend, but only two of those five were able to cover the line. The Crusaders got out of jail against the Highlanders last week and remain unbeaten, and are $2.50 to win the title, but there is still a push for the Hurricanes at $3.50. Although the form guide says that the Lions ($6.00), Chiefs ($7.00) and Highlanders ($7.50) are in the mix, punters are ignoring all three at this stage.
The Hurricanes host the Chiefs on Friday night, and will be trying to improve on a rather impressive stat of 12 wins in a row at home. At home this season the Canes have been able to average 51 points, at the same time conceding an average of 16.5 points, so it will be interesting to see what occurs on Friday. Punters were all over the Hurricanes to win and also cover the -5.5 point line and that sees the line shift to -8.5.
UBET will be covering all of the International tests live, including the provincial matches that the British Lions play in.
Tip: Hurricanes -8.5 v The Chiefs ($1.90)
The US Open will be on next week, so several of the big names are missing from the St Jude Classic this week. Rickie Fowler finished in a tie for second behind Jason Dufner in the Memorial last week, and he has been installed as the $9.00 favourite with UBET to win the St Jude Classic. Brooks Koepka is on the next line at $13 just ahead of Adam Scott at $15. Daniel Berger won last year and there has been interest in him at $26, and the same applies to Phil Mickelson ($19) who was runner-up to Berger last year, and he invariably plays well the week leading into a Major.
Tip: Ryan Palmer to won the St Jude Classic ($34)
The Pacquiao v Horn fight is still a little over three weeks away, but as expected the interest in this one is huge. The bet numbers are heavily swayed towards Jeff Horn, the local hero, but there are some big bets coming through for the Pacman, including one over the weekend of $8,000 at $1.26. That price remains and Horn is at $3.80.
Lewis Hamilton had his issues in Monaco two weeks ago when he was all but ruled out of the race when he had to start at the back of the grid. Sebastian Vettel won that race and while that pair again head the betting this week in Canada, the money is heavily swayed in favour of Hamilton at $2.10. Vettel is close behind at $2.25 with Valterri Bottas the only other given any hope at all at $6.50. Hamilton has a fantastic record in Montreal having won the past two races there, but also won in 2007, 2010 and 2012. Vettel has just the one win in 2013, and a reminder that our own Daniel Ricciardo won here in 2014…and is a $26 chance this year.
Tip: Lewis Hamilton to win the Canadian Grand Prix ($2.00)
The bikes are on a quick back-up after Andrea Dovizioso provided an upset in Italy last week. Dovizioso is always thereabouts but wins have been rare, so the Italian would have got a lot of enjoyment winning on home soil. It wasn’t good news for punters as he was a $12 pop. The veteran Italian will be a similar quote to win the Catalunyan GP this week, with Maverick Vinales the favourite ahead of Marc Marquez and Valentino Rossi. Vinales finished unplaced in Barcelona the last 2 years behind Rossi and Jorge Lorenzo but is on a much faster machine this year.
Tip: Maverick Vinales to win the Catalunyan GP