GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 29TH JUNE
Melbourne continue to firm in premiership betting. You could’ve bagged $26 about the Demons two weeks ago but after their last two performances they’re in to $9.00. GWS are back to clear favourites at $3.50, while Adelaide have drifted from $3.75 to $4.75 after their unexpected loss to the Hawks. The other mover has been the Sydney Swans who were $81 after starting the season without a win after 6 rounds. The Swans are now $11, and while they have some work to do if they are to grab an all- important top 4 spot, we know they have the list to go all the way.
UBET have Patrick Dangerfield to win the Brownlow at $3.50, and that is where most of the Brownlow business has gone this week. Dustin Martin is clear favourite at $2.75 and Rory Sloane continues to struggle with the extra attention he’s been given each week. He’s drifted from $7.00 out to $11, and that was after being favourite earlier in the season.
Melbourne taking on Sydney headlines another cracking round of matches. The Demons opened slight favourites at $1.85 despite this being their third consecutive match off a six-day break, and they have moved out to $2.05 on the back of news that Jack Watts and Jeff Garlett will not be in the side. Sydney is now into $1.77.
GWS host Geelong on Saturday night. Despite their lengthy injury list GWS keeps on winning and are now a game clear on top of the ladder. They go into this clash as the heavy odds-on favourite at $1.36. Geelong were extremely brave last week getting over the line against Fremantle despite only having one fit player left on the bench in the last quarter. The Cats have opened $3.15 and +19.5 at the line.
Port Adelaide host Richmond on Saturday night in a crucial clash that could determine top four positions. Port destroyed Collingwood last week and have opened $1.36. The Tigers have lost four of their last five games at the Adelaide Oval, by an average of six goals. Clearly they are a justified outsider at $3.15 and 19.5 at the line, but they do have the ability to spring an upset when the betting suggests they can’t win.
Tip: St Kilda to beat Fremantle ($2.05)
With less than 2 weeks to go, punters are hungrier than a vegan at the Brekky Creek hotel to get a bet on for Origin 3. Queensland opened up $1.75 favourite and NSW at $2.10 before Johnathan Thurston and Darius Boyd were ruled out of game 3. Those changes have had a monumental impact on the market and UBET reopened $1.90 each of two. Since then it’s been one way traffic for NSW and they’ve been smashed in to $1.77 and clear favourite, with the Maroons out to $2.10. Queensland supports get their wish again…they are the outsiders!
On the back of four straight wins, Manly continues to shorten in the NRL premiership betting. After beating Cronulla easily last week, it seems plenty of premiership punters have bought a one-way ticket on the Manly ferry. They were $14 and have shortened in to $10 after last week's result and are still being well supported at this price.
In Friday Night Football, top of the table Melbourne take on the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium in what is shaping up to be the match of the round. With their origin players back this week, Melbourne are 2.5 point favourites and the early money is with them at the $1.67, including one bet of $4,000 and now they’re $1.65. There is some doubt about the availability of Cam Smith for the Storm and if he is out, there will be a major change to the prices.
In another great match-up, Cronulla are looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss last week and are up against the Roosters at Central Coast Stadium. Punters will be hoping the Roosters won’t leave it until golden point this time and are the $1.73 favourites and Cronulla are $2.15.
The Rabbitohs host the Panthers in the get out stakes for this round. Both sides have plenty to prove and should be bursting to get into the top eight. The punters are with Penrith early as they’ve been met with good support at the $1.65.
Tip: Newcastle to beat Wests ($1.85)
The Super Rugby resumes this week. The round will feature all of the South African sides, as well as the Jaguares and the Sunwolves. It looks like the Lions, and perhaps the Stormers, will be the only sides from this group progressing through to the playoffs, so the matches are very quiet. The Lions are $6.00 to win the title, closely followed by the chiefs at $6.50. The Hurricanes are currently second favourite at $4.00 and the Crusaders are the $2.50 favourite.
The Lions will be at home to the Sunwolves early Sunday morning our time. The only interest here will be in the winning margin to the Lions, the line has been set at -30.5 and early shoppers are happy to take the minus.
The All Blacks defeated the British & Irish Lions 30-15 last week at Eden Park. While the All Blacks covered the line of 12 points, the Lions weren’t that bad. This week’s second test has seen plenty of early support for the Lions to win, $7.50 in to $6.00, and there are plenty of takers for the line of +14 points ($1.90).
Tip: Lions at the -31.5 v Sunwolves ($1.80)
Naturally all of Australia is behind Jeff Horn in Sunday’s historic title fight in Brisbane and there have been a couple of interesting betting trends on the bout. There’s a stack of four figure bets on Manny Pacquiao at varying odds, the most recent of those was on Monday when a bet of $9,000 came through at $1.23. However, such is the interest in Horn, Pacquiao is now $1.24 and Horn remains solid at $4.25. The ratio of bets is running 6:1 in favour of the local hope, but that isn’t really a surprise. The ‘method of result’ market has been interesting with very few takers on the favourite way which is The Pacman to win by decision, which has drifted from $1.80 out to $2.20. There is actually more interest in the draw at $26! Pacquiao to win by KO etc. has firmed from $3.00 in to $2.40 and there is also big $$$ for Horn to win the same way at $6.00. From an Aussie perspective, I’m sure we can cop an early finish if it is a KO win to Horn? There will be live betting throughout the fight with UBET. There are a couple of promotions available for UBET account holders, check out the website or apps for T’s and C’s. The other big news is that UBET is the official wagering partner for the fight, and the UBET logo will be hard to miss on the coverage.
Tip: Pacquiao round 3 ($15)
The Tour de France gets underway on Sunday and with Tasmanian Richie Porte the $2.25 favourite to win, there is plenty of interest in the race on this side of the globe. Chris Froome is a close second elect at $2.60 and that pair command around 80% of what has been bet so far. Outside of them, others met with some sort of support have been Nairo Quintana at $8.00, Alberto Contador at $15, and Johan Esteban Chaves at $51.
There has been some money for Michael Matthews to win the Points Classification, or the Green Jersey. Peter Sagan is considered by most to be a good thing here, and priced accordingly at $1.50. Marcel Kittle is the main danger at $3.75, but SBS’s Michael Tomalaris gave out Matthews ($21-$19) as a strong tip on RadioTAB and we have seen good money for him at a longer quote. UBET will have several markets open daily on all stages.
Tip: Richie Porte to Win ($2.30)
The Quicken Loans National (ex AT&T National) is the US PGA Tour event this week. Rickie Fowler is the opening $9.00 favourite and he’s been backed at that price! This will be the first time that the Avenal Farm course will be used for this event in Maryland, so there isn’t much history to go on with the course. Justin Thomas has had a super season and is at $13, just ahead of Patrick Reed at $26. The rest are $26 or better, with Marc Leishman the shortest of the Australians at $29.
The Open de France is the European Tour event and John Rahm returns to the Euro Tour in terrific form as well. In a wide open betting event, Rahm is the $14 favourite ahead of Francesco Molinari ($15), with Alex Noren and Bernd Weisberger not far behind at $19. Molinari has good form at this course and in this event he finished runner up last year as well as in 2010 and 2012, so it is easy to see why he is so far up in the betting. Weinberger also has form here having won in 2015.
Tip: J.B Holmes to win the Quicken Loans National ($34)
The next F1 Grand Prix is not on until next week in Austria, but we have to make mention of the win by Daniel Ricciardo in Azerbaijan on Sunday. Ricciardo had to do it the hard way as he started from 10th on the grid, got back to 17th in the run, before a series of events took him to the lead when it mattered most, at the finish. There is always a lot of bets on the popular Aussie when he races, and one UBET customer had a big result after placing $400 on Ricciardo in a few bets at around the $51 mark before the weekend got underway. Those bets yielded the punter a tick under $20,000. The interesting stat around Ricciardo’s win is that this was his fifth GP win and in all of them he hasn’t started from closer than fourth on the grid.
Veteran Valentino Rossi won the motoGP race in Assen last weekend and while he isn’t favourite to win the German GP this week, we expect to see plenty of action for Rossi. Nominal favourite will be Marc Marquez who crashed out in the Dutch GP. However, he has won the German GP the last 3 years, so clearly loves the Sachsenring circuit. Maverick Vinales also failed last week and is not racing as well as what he was at the start of the season, but will be second fav narrowly ahead of Rossi.
Tip: Marc Marquez to win the German GP ($2.20)