GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 6TH JULY
There has been very little Origin market movement since the sides were announced earlier in the week. NSW will go in to the decider as favourite, currently trading at $1.77, with Queensland at $2.10. Not since 1998 have all three games of a series been won by the away teams. That might be the inspiration required for the Maroons to grab a series win, which looked extremely unlikely after game 1. Currently Queensland is $2.10 and we are expecting most of the money leading into the game to be for them.
This week’s NRL matches (there are only four this week) have been on the quiet side, but that’s always been the case before the State Of Origin, with the big names out.
The first Saturday game sees Penrith ($1.91) return home to play Manly ($1.91). Penrith are looking to redeem themselves after suffering that embarrassing loss to Souths. They face a confident Manly who are coming off a win over the Warriors. This is a good betting match and it should be a close contest and the much improved form of Manly has already seen them firm in from $1.95. The Sea Eagles have also been big movers in title betting, now on the third line at $8.50. Manly have a pretty good draw leading in to the finals, so are on track for a top 4 finish if they can maintain their form. Melbourne Storm has been a big drifter in their match against Parramatta on Saturday. The Storm are now $2.45 after opening at $2.20, they have a lot of players involved in Origin, but history has shown they can plug those holes.
Tip: Manly to beat Penrith ($1.91)
Sydney was originally $81 after losing six games and now they’re $7.00 in AFL premiership betting. The Bulldogs are now $26 and there are currently no takers for them to win back to back flags, and in fact are now $2.10 to make the finals. Brownlow betting has taken an interesting turn this week as we now have two $2.50 equal favourites, Paddy Dangerfield and Dustin Martin. Both probably grabbed the maximum votes last weekend, and that was timely for one UBET customer who plonked $10,000 on Dangerfield last week at $3.50.
Hawthorn play GWS on Saturday afternoon and they come off back to back wins for the first time this season, and they were impressive against Collingwood. They opened $2.75 and GWS are favourite at $1.50. All the early support has been for the Hawks (now $2.60) and for good reason, Launceston is their ‘home away from home’, winning nine of their last ten matches there by an average of 32 points.
Collingwood play Essendon on Saturday at the MCG. Collingwood has lost three games in a row and with only five wins they look to be out of play for the finals. They’ve opened $2.00 and Essendon are the $1.81 favourites. It must’ve hurt Essendon to lose to the Lions last week after leading by more than four goals late in the last quarter. Early betting support has been in favour of Essendon, in saying that, the market looks pretty stable. Not a great deal really splits these two and it would be no surprise to see this one go either way.
St Kilda have now won their last three matches, but all of those victories were against teams outside the eight and Richmond will be a far bigger test for them. Richmond caused a big upset last week beating Port Adelaide in Adelaide and have asserted themselves as a definite flag candidate. The betting has been interesting, and as we have seen when Richmond is favourite, the trend is against them. The Saints opened at $2.60 but have already firmed in to $2.35.
Tip: Essendon to beat Collingwood ($1.81)
With the British Open only a couple of weeks away, a lot of the bigger names on the US Tour are making their way across to Europe and several of those will be teeing off in the Irish Open this week.
Rory McIlroy sponsors the Irish Open, and won it last year, so the popular Irishman was an easy choice to beat the favourite with UBET. Golf fans have been keen on McIlroy at $8.00, but there has been plenty of interest in the event given the quality of the field. Hideki Matsuyama ($12) is second pick ahead of Jon Rahm ($16) and Tommy Fleetwood ($17). There is also really good support for Fleetwood who won the French Open last week.
Dustin Johnson remains the $11 favourite for the British Open ahead of McIlroy at $12 and Spieth at $13. Fleetwood is now right in contention there as well at $19 with Jason Day the shortest of the Aussie contingent at $19.
Australia has a new boxing champion and there were thousands of UBET customers who came out well in front on the day. Jeff Horn started the fight at $4.00 with Manny Pacquiao at $1.27, and the ratio of bets in favour of Horn before the fight was a staggering 6:1. Live betting was brisk as well, and there was an amazing turnaround after the referee spoke to the Horn corner after round 9. After round 8 we had Horn the red hot $1.45 favourite, but after round 9 roles had reversed and he was out to $2.75 with Pacquiao at $1.45. We all know the end result, and look forward to the rematch, as this fight broke all betting records in Australia for boxing.
The Austrian F1 Grand Prix has only been back on the calendar for three years. It was won in 2014 and 2015 by Nico Rosberg, and Lewis Hamilton was victorious around the Red Bull ring last year. The critics are still talking about what happened in Azerbaijan a couple of weeks ago when Daniel Ricciardo, a $51 pop, came from tenth on the grid to score an unbelievable victory. Hamilton was the hard luck story out of the race, and punters are happy to take the $1.80 for him to win this week. Sebastian Vettel is again second pick at $3.10 and Valtteri Bottas is in demand at $5.00 as is Kimi Raikkonen at $12. The Finn opened at $17 in this market and was one of the first drivers supported, bets including one big one of $1,000 at the $17, and he is now $10. Ricciardo is on the next line of betting at $21.
The Superbikes move to the USA this week at Laguna Seca. Tom Sykes and veteran Marco Melandri won the two races held in Missano at the last meeting, making a change from the domination by Jonathan Rea who remains $1.01 to win the title. Rea will be installed as clear favourite to win race 1 this week and has form at Laguna Seca having won the first race here last year. On that occasion he defeated Tom Sykes who then went on to win race 2, and Sykes is the main danger this week.
Tip: Jonathan Rea to win race 1at Laguna Seca
The Supercars have had a couple of weeks off since Hidden Valley and will be in Townsville this week for the Townsville 400 series. There will be two races, each of 70 laps, with the first on Saturday and the second on Sunday. Jamie Whincup has the best history around the Townsville streets having won eight races there. He’s the only driver to win from pole position, and that is an oddity around a street circuit. Scott McLaughlin is the $3.00 favourite with UBET to win race 1 on Saturday, narrowly ahead of Fabian Coulthard at $4.00 and then follows Whincup and Shane Van Gisbergen at $5.00. Whincup won race 1 last year beating Van Gisbergen before Van Gisbergen won race 2.
Tip: Jamie Whincup to win race 1 in Townsville ($5.00)
The UBET National Titles are not far away and several of the sprinters likely to contest the series will be in action in the Winter Cup final at Albion Park tonight (Thursday). Reigning Melbourne Cup champion Ando’s Mac looked new to the track last week and he has drawn ideally out in box 8, and is the one to beat. Ando’s Mac has been the best backed runner since the box draw ($4.20 in to $3.60) but a lot of other runners have attracted support as well. Outside Pass ($8.00 in to $7.00) put in good performance in her first run for several months and also has a good draw in box 2. While Fast Times ($4.20) and Nangar Rock ($4.60) both set the track alight in their heat wins but have to overcome tricky draws to win the Group 1 Final and snare the $75k first prize.
Tip: Outside Pass to win the Winter Cup ($7.00)