GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 13TH JULY
The torrid run that AFL favourites have been having this season continued on again last week. Only 4 of the 9 were capable of winning, but a couple of outsiders, namely St Kilda and Port Adelaide, did land decent plunges when they both recorded wins.
The premiership market is now more open than ever and each week there are normally a host of moves on the back of results. This week we have GWS and Adelaide equal $4.00 favourites, but the big movers have been St Kilda $41 in to $21 over the last 4 weeks and Port who were $11 now in to $7.00 after beating the Eagles. The Swans remain at $7.00 and have been the side to attract most money over the last couple of weeks.
The Crows are back in to $2.25 to grab the minor premiership after the Giants could only muster a pair of draws over the last couple of rounds. The other piece of news is that reigning premiers the Western Bulldogs have blown out to $41 to win the flag and $3.00 to make the 8, so they are in trouble.
The game of the round this week will be in Sydney where the Giants host the Swans. The Giants have had the better of the Swans in their short life, but when the Swans were 0/6 after six rounds, a win against any side looked a forlorn hope. However, they are in form, and the Giants have been scratchy at best all season before their draws over the last 2 weeks. Sydney opened at $2.10, but that disappeared after a day and currently the $2.00 is under siege. It’s possible that they will go into the match as either equal favourites or maybe even outright favourites….and they might even win it as well!
Carlton has been one of the surprise packets of the season, and there is some early money to say that the Blues can all but end the final’s aspirations of the Bulldogs on Sunday. The Blues did pick up some injuries last week including a season ending injury to Patrick Cripps, but the form of the Bulldogs has seen punters desert them early in the week, preferring Carlton at $2.50, particularly with the 12.5 points start.
Tip: Sydney to beat GWS ($2.00)
Well State of Origin is over for another year, there will be a lot of post mortems in the upcoming weeks as to how NSW lost the series, but the cold hard facts are that they did! So we look ahead to next year and the Blues have opened favourites to win the 2018 series! That might surprise a few that NSW are $1.75 with QLD the underdogs at $2.10, but while there is clearly going to be some changes to both sides, the general consensus of opinion is that there will be more upside for NSW, so we shall wait and see what happens.
There hadn’t been much early business on the upcoming round with Origin taking pride of place on Wednesday night. While we are yet to find out who will be in or out for the weekend games, they are all back open. A couple of these sides really need to find some consistent winning form (in particular Canberra) and the Raiders have been backed from $1.65 on Monday in to $1.52 to beat the Dragons on Friday night. The bad news for Raiders fans is that they have lost their last four, including two at home, to the Dragons.
The wins for Wests Tigers at Brookvale are very rare, in fact they have only won once there in their last 11 attempts. Manly went down to Penrith last week but UBET fans think that the Sea Eagles will bounce back in a big way this week and are happy to take the -14.5 against the Tigers.
Tip: Gold Coast to beat Cronulla ($2.35)
After what seems an eternity the final round of home and away matches will be played in Super Rugby this week. Most of the matches this week don’t mean anything at all in the overall scheme of things, and we saw similar circumstances around last week’s games which resulted in only two of the five favourites winning. That means this week will be on the quiet side with the finals only a week away, and we may get a look at the final in Wellington on Saturday. The Hurricanes host the unbeaten Crusaders, with the Canes the slightest of favourites at $1.80 and the Crusaders at $2.00. The Lions have had the South African conference wrapped up for over two months, and it will be interesting to see how they approach their match against the Sharks. The Lions are warm $1.30 favourites but there has been early money for the Sharks at $3.50 and with the 8.5 point start.
In title betting the Crusaders remain at $2.50 ahead of the Hurricanes at $3.50 with the Chiefs and the Lions at $6.00. Round 1 of the finals series will open on Sunday once the make-up of those games is known.
Tip: Rebels to beat the Jaguares ($3.05)
Jon Rahm has been the big mover this week to with the British Open after winning the Irish Open in emphatic style last week. Rahm had already attracted a stack of support to win the British Open at $26 and the support continues for him now at $15. There has to be some question marks over the form of Dustin Johnson ($10), Rory McIlroy ($11) and Jordan Spieth ($12) as next Thursday nears, and for that reason we are seeing a wider spread of money than normal.
The Scottish Open is the Euro Tour event this week and Rickie Fowler is favourite at $9.00 ahead of McIlroy at $12, followed by Henrik Stenson at $15 and Alex Noreen at $17. Adam Scott ($21) is also making one of his rare appearances in a lead up to a Major. Noren won the Scottish open last year and Fowler was the winner in 2015, but both events were not played at the course being used this week.
Daniel Berger is UBET’s $13 favourite to win the John Deere Classic on the US Tour this week. Brian Harman, winner here in 2014, is second elect at $19 ahead of Kiwi Danny Lee at $21. Ryan Moore won the John Deere last year and is a $26 pop, while Matt Jones is the shortest of the Aussies at $51.
Tip: John Deere Classic- Ryan Moore ($26)
The next big boxing bout on the UBET calendar will be the fight between Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor. This one is shaping up to be the equal of the recent Jeff Horn fight in betting interest. We are still six weeks away from seeing whether McGregor can make the transition from UFC to boxing, and while the stats say he will be up against it, the betting public are behind him. McGregor has attracted more money at $5.50 than Mayweather at $1.16, and the bets are running his way at a staggering 20:1 ratio!
Just on Jeff Horn, once we have a confirmed date of his rematch against Manny Pacquiao the betting will be up, but don’t expect anything like the $5.00 that was on offer for Horn the first time they met!
Valtteri Bottas won an action packed Austrian GP last weekend and is a $5.50 chance to repeat that in the British GP this weekend. The win by Bottas wasn’t totally unexpected as he did qualify fastest, but punters were not keen to take the $3.50 for him, preferring runner-up Sebastian Vettel. Daniel Ricciardo grabbed another podium position while Lewis Hamilton did a good job to finish fourth after incurring a grid penalty.
Hamilton has the record on the board at Silverstone having won the last three F1’s there as well as winning in 2009, and there has been solid money for him at $1.80 to maintain that terrific record this week. Vettel is second pick at $3.00 ahead of Bottas at $5.50 with Max Verstappen ($15) and Ricciardo ($17) next in line. There was a stack of money for Kimi Raikkonen last week, and while he failed to deliver, many have come back again at $26 for him to win on Sunday.
Tip: Lewis Hamilton ($1.75)
Formerly known as the Winter Cup, the renamed UBET Blacks A Fake will be run at Albion Park on Saturday night.
The Blacks A Fake will be the final leg of the 2016/17 Grand Circuit. Following Tuesday’s barrier draw, Tiger Tara was installed a $3.20 favourite and the money immediately started pouring in for the former Kiwi to see his price cut to $2.30. Former Queensland based Todd McCarthy will take the drive and if able to secure the victory, will complete an amazing feat for the McCarthy family with Father John and brothers Luke and Andy all having won this race previously. Tiger Tara has been in superb form scoring 9 wins from 15 starts since crossing the Tasman.
My Field Marshal was the G1 Len Smith Mile winner, defeating the likes of Tiger Tara, Lennytheshark and Hectorjayjay and is currently a $5.00 quote with UBET. He also lands a similar gate to last week’s Sunshine Sprint where he was a strong second to Hector. Inter Dominion champion Lennytheshark is at $5.50 after landing inside the second line, which looks to make it very tough. His stable-mate and last week’s Sunshine Sprint winner Hectorjayjay is on the second line of the market at $4.50 and gets the chance to be driven with a cold-sit, where he has been breathtakingly effective in the past. If the speed is on throughout, which is almost guaranteed, it will give Hector the chance to unleash his booming finish. In the past 10 editions of the Blacks A Fake, no winner has led from barrier to box, proving the 2680m trip is a true test of attrition and this could play right into Hectors hands.
Tip: Hectorjayjay to win ($4.50)