GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 14TH SEPTEMBER
Richmond humiliated Geelong in the first week of finals, and although the Tigers are not the favourites to win the flag, they have been the most popular side this week. Adelaide hang on to favouritism at $2.70, but Richmond, courtesy of that win and a perceived easier draw, have been $3.50 in to $3.25. Sydney have also firmed up a shade this week, $4.25 in to $4.00. Assuming that they get the job done against Geelong on Friday, we will be faced with a mouth-watering prelim final next week between the Crows and the Swans. GWS are the side on the drift in flag betting, out to $8.00 from $5.50 on the back of a loss last weekend and season ending injuries to Jeremy Cameron and Shane Mumford.
The loss of those two players for the Giants has seen a push for West Coast to beat them on Saturday night. Although the Eagles had a torrid match that included extra time last week, had to then fly back to Perth and now across to Sydney, there has been good money for them to win ($3.00-$2.80) as well as with 16.5 points start.
In Friday night's match, Geelong have been written off by punters, drifting from $2.75 out to $3.10 already, and seemed destined to drift even further. The pair met back in round 20 where Sydney won in Victoria by 41 points, and while that gives them a big psychological advantage, there is little doubt that Joel Selwood will be much better for the run last week for the Cats, so they cannot be discounted.
The flag will be updated after each match, as will next week's finals when we know the fixture.
Tip: Geelong +17.5 against Sydney ($1.95)
Most of the media attention this week has been focused on 'ref-bashing', which, to some extent, has deflected from the upcoming semi-finals. Consumed by the drama and the debate, footy punters are only now starting to seriously consider their bets for this weekend's two do-or-die games.
Brisbane go in as warm $1.40 favourites with the bookies against Penrith on Friday night, but the early interest suggests the Panthers are every chance at $3.05. At this stage, more individual bets have been placed on the 'Mountain Men' than the home side both Head-to-Head and at the Line. Penrith, with the 7.5-point head start, has been a hit from early shoppers, which itself may be a winning tip.
After taking $1.70 premiership hot-pots Melbourne all the way last week, the Parramatta Eels have been a fair old go at $1.36 to put an end to North Queensland's season. One punter is so convinced the Eels will triumph, on Tuesday they lobbed $10,000 on them at $1.36. As we saw last week though, North Queensland has an ambush in them. Still, the $3.25 on offer is yet strike a chord with anyone.
Tip: Penrith +6.5 against Brisbane ($1.85)
South Africa can leapfrog New Zealand if they beat them in Albany on Saturday, and while that is a $7.50 chance, there has been plenty of interest in the Springboks to win (particularly with 17.5 point start). The Boks drew 23 all with the Wallabies last week and the All Blacks defeated Argentina 39-22, but they only shook off the Pumas in the last 15 minutes after trailing at half time.
That forward showing by Argentina has also created some interest in them at $6.00 to beat Australia in Canberra, following the All Blacks game. On the form displayed by the Wallabies at their past two starts they should win, but there is still a niggling doubt over their ability to post a decent score. That would explain the support we have seen for Argentina with 13.5 point start.
Tip: South Africa +17.5 against New Zealand ($1.85)
Week 1 was dominated by defence (Baltimore, Carolina and Green Bay among others). Some of the o-lines (Giants, Seahawks and Redskins) spluttered and struggled with early season jitters. New England certainly performed below expectation in the season opener, not only failing to cover the 9-point line against the Kansas City Chiefs, but surrendering a fourth quarter lead and losing outright for the first time in the Tom Brady-era. Despite this, Pats fans are buttering up again, snapping up the $1.32 about their team sticking it to the Saints in Week 2. $1.45 in to $1.35 and firming, the Cincinnati Bengals are also a prevalent selection to beat the Houston Texans at home on Friday morning our time.
Tip: Patriots -6.4 against Saints
Mayweather-McGregor last month was a fascinating event, not to mention the biggest betting bout ever, but for true boxing purists, the cross-code confrontation was simply an entrée for the main meal this Sunday. Unbeaten as a professional, renowned knockout artist Gennady Golovkin will look to unite the middleweight division when he steps into the ring against the wildly popular Mexican fighter Canelo Alvarez in Las Vegas. A genuine super fight and arguably the most exciting middleweight bout in decades, the showdown between these two arch-rivals is one fight sports fans have been waiting on for years.
Golovkin boasts the highest knockout percentage of any middleweight fighter in history and is the $1.67 favourite with UBET, with Alvarez, who lacks nothing in the way of punching-power himself, installed as the outsider at $2.20. At this stage, betting is fairly even. The biggest single bet on either fighter is $10,000 straight up at $2.35 on Alvarez. His opponent by KO, TKO or DQ has certainly been most popular way home at $2.60 in our Method of Result market. Alvarez has noticeably bulked up for the fight and there has also been some specking for him to win by KO, TKO or DQ at $7.00.
Australia salvaged something from their tour of Bangladesh by winning the second test and levelled the series 1-1. They now have a tour of India with an ODI series comprising of five matches and also a T/20 series comprising a best of three. The first ODI will be played in Chennai on Sunday and with India $1.40 to win the series, it appears as though they will be clear favourite's in that first match. Given the recent history of any Australian side on the sub-continent there may not be great expectations there, but we have noticed things are ramping up on the Ashes betting. There has been solid support for Australia this week at $1.60, England remain at $3.50 and a drawn series is still $6.50. There have been several bets placed on an Australian 5-0 series win, while that may be optimistic, it shows that UBET cricket fans have cast aside the negative press.
Joost Luiten won the KLM Open in the Netherlands last year and also in 2013, and that form-line is enough to see the local hope go into this week's KLM as the well backed $17 favourite. Luiten defeated Bernd Wiesberger last year and he is second elect at $19 with Kiwi Ryan Fox next in line at $23.
In the US, the Fedex Championship continues this week with the BMW at Conway Farms, Illinois, and the usual suspects are attracting the early money. Jordan Spieth is the $7.50 favourite ahead of Dustin Johnson ($8.50) and Justin Thomas ($10) who did open at $15. The biggest bet for Thomas was $3,500 at $11. Jason Day is on the $17 line along with Hideki Matsuyama and Jon Rahm, and perhaps one surprise is Rory McIlroy, a $21 chance, the longest price he has been pre-tournament for several years. Dustin Johnson won this event last year but it was played at Crooked Stick whereas Jason Day won it in 2015 when played at this very course.
Tip: Spieth to win the BMW championship ($7.50)
Singapore is always one of the highlight races on the F1 calendar, and they will race around the Marina Bay circuit on Sunday. Singapore was the first event to race under lights, and it makes it more exciting to watch considering they race around the streets. The tightness of the course means it is imperative to get a good grid position, and we see the fastest drivers dominate the betting again. Sebastian Vettel knows this course like the back of his hand having chalked up four wins here, and he has been installed the $2.25 favourite with UBET ahead of Lewis Hamilton (two time winner here) who is $2.75. Vettel appreciates racing under lights but Hamilton has been on a roll recently having won three of the last four races held this season. Daniel Ricciardo is well in commission on the third line of betting at $6.50, just ahead of Max Verstappen at $7.50.
Tip: Hamilton to win the Singapore Grand Prix ($3.00)
The Enduro part of the Supercars season gets under way on Sunday with the running of the Sandown 500. The next three meetings will be team events (two drivers) which include the one race on Sunday, Bathurst and the Gold Coast. As pointed out before, when the races are team events, betting is done by car numbers. Car 88 (Whincup/Dumbrell) is the current $3.50 favourite with UBET, and that is one of the few combinations that have stuck together for a number of years. This combo won here in 2014, and have qualified fastest the past three years, although that may not be such a big advantage as only two winners of the last 30 at Sandown have come from pole position. Car 97 (Van Gisbergen/Campbell) has been well backed at $4.50, Van Gisbergen finished second here behind the Tander/Luff combo, but this year will be partnered by Matt Campbell who will be replacing Alex Premat who moves into Car 17 with Scott McLauchlin (also $4.50)
Tip: Car 97 Van Gisbergen/Campbell ($4.50)
The Superbikes return to Portugal this year, and will race on Saturday and Sunday at Portimao. Jonathan Rea has been near on unbackable to win the title for a while now, but his early dominance in races has been snapped recently. Chaz Davies won both races at the last meeting in Germany, beating Rea on both occasions, and both Rea and Davies shared the spoils in the previous meeting in the USA. With Davies in form, there will be little separating that duo when race 1 betting opens on Friday.
2017 was the year of the two veterans, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, and nobody could have predicted that before the Australian Open got under way in January. Nadal scored an emphatic win in the US Open men's final earlier in the week, and there has already been money for him to win in Melbourne in January. Naturally there are some serious question marks hovering over Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic, so that does add more spice to the market. Murray opens favourite at $4.00 ahead of Djokovic and Nadal at $4.50, then Federer at $5.50. The women's market isn't open just yet, that all hinges on the availability of Serena Williams.
This year's Interdominion in Perth will be the last of the three that Perth won the right to host the series, so it remains to be seen what happens with it going forward.
This week we opened the market after the nominations closed, and Lazarus from the Purdon stable is the $4.00 favourite. By all reports Lazarus will be headed east after the NZ Cup on November 14 (for which he is the $2.00 favourite), so fingers crossed he makes the trip as he will be a big drawcard. Chicago Bull is second in line at $6.50, and the top pick of the WA locals. Chicago Bull is in the all-powerful Gary Hall Snr stable, and although on the small size, he has quickly raced through his grades in WA. Tiger Tara ($7.00) is next in line. The ex-Kiwi pacer has been with Kevin Pizzuto in NSW for 12 months and has shown it can mix it with the best. And the of course there is 'Lenny'! Lennytheshark is one of the most popular pacers to have ever graced the track, and there has been early money for him at $7.50 even though he had several problems in WA during the last series where he was an early scratching. Smolda won the Interdominion last year but was recently retired.
* Prices are correct 2pm Thursday.