GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 28TH SEPTEMBER
Can Richmond turn around a 76 point defeat by the Adelaide Crows in Round 6 this year? That is the big question facing all heading into Saturday's Grand Final, and it seems 50% of punters think the Tigers can. On that occasion the Crows were at home and went in at $1.16 favourites, with the line a hefty 37 points, which they covered easily. The prices for Saturday's final haven't moved with the Crows at $1.70, Richmond at $2.20, and the line at 6.5 points start. Normally in a Grand Final there are at least twice as many bets for the underdog as there is for the favourite, but that is not the case this time around with the bet numbers split right down the middle. There have also been some bizarre betting transactions on the game. The 'draw' option is normally backed for a stack, but it has remained at $51, and only attracted a handful of small bets. In that same market (winning margin 1-39), an Adelaide win by 40+ has been $6.00 into $4.75 already, and in a Grand Final we never see that either. So it looks like UBET footy fans are tipping another blowout this week, and it will be an Adelaide victory, so that aligns with the result in round 6.
The small brigade in the Crows forward line have been best backed to kick the first goal, with Eddie Betts hugely popular at $8.00 and Charlie Cameron has had similar support at $15. The first and last goals scorers for each quarter will be available throughout the game, as well as the same for each individual team, so even if the match itself looks over early (let's hope not), there will still be a stack of bet types in 'live' betting.
The Norm Smith Medal is the biggest betting bet type outside of the head to head on the match, and again there are some interesting moves early in the week. It is rare that the favourite, in this instance Dustin Martin ($5.50), is from the side that is the outsider in the game. Another statistic going against Dusty is that no player has ever won the Norm Smith a few days after winning the Brownlow Medal. Punters however have put those stats aside and he has easily been the best backed player early in the week. Using the round 6 touch-up that the Crows gave the Tigers as a reference point, Taylor Walker kicked five goals that day. Matty Crouch got an amazing 38 disposals from Rory Laird (34) and Rory Sloane (33). That trio are $7, $15 and $7 respectively in the medal market, but all three have been surpassed by Eddie Betts ($15) and Sam Jacobs who has been $26 into $17 already. The Norm Smith market will also be available for live betting until at least three quarter time.
Tip: Adelaide to win the GF ($1.70)
Tip: Rory Sloane to win the Norm Smith medal ($7.00)
One thing is crystal clear ahead of the Grand Final on Sunday - casual footy fans can't get enough of the North Queensland Cowboys! Despite the Melbourne Storm being the hottest NRL premiership favourite in betting history ($1.30), a whopping 85 percent of bets have been for the Cowboys to win the title at $3.65. Everywhere you look, Cowboys fans are chiming in and the bet count at UBET is about as lopsided as it gets. In fact, for every one bet we lay on the Storm, we're seeing six for the Men from the North. That said, the average ticket price on the Storm is $280 and just $35 for the Cowboys, which shows where the serious big-money punters are spending their money. We've already seen wagers this week of $32,000 and multiple $10,000 bets on the Storm and we expect a few more in that range before a ball is kicked in anger on Sunday.
A couple of punters stand to win big if the Storm can indeed get home. One UBET customer plonked $16,000 on Melbourne at $2.25 early last month and a $36,000 payout awaits.
Another gazed into his or her crystal ball and put the following $3.00 10-leg multi on back in March:
1. Lions to beat Reds ($1.25)
2. Hurricanes to beat Highlanders ($1.27)
3. Jaguares to beat Cheetahs ($1.40)
4. Crusaders to beat the Blues ($1.40)
5. Cleveland Cavaliers to win NBA Eastern Conference ($1.40)
6. Joshua Anthony to defeat Wladimir Klitschko - heavyweight world title fight ($1.42)
7. Everton to defeat Hull City ($1.50)
8. Chelsea to defeat Stoke City ($1.55)
9. Golden State Warriors to win the NBA Championship ($1.90)
10. Adelaide/North Qld double ($72)
Should the Crows get the cash in the AFL Grand Final Saturday, said punter will turn $3.00 into $5,480. Amazingly the story doesn't end there though. The very same punter took the same nine leg combination into the Adelaide/Melbourne Premiership double at $51 as well and will collect $3,882 if the Storm win. Talk about a win-win situation!
Tip: Melbourne -9.5 ($1.90)
Tip: Cooper Cronk to win the Churchill Medal ($5.00)
Week 3 was an absolute blowout for punters with seven of the 16 games going the way of the underdogs and only four favourites covering lines. Kansas City was one team to buck the trend, easily accounting for the Los Angeles Chargers 24-10. Most thought the Chiefs would slide this season, but behind rejuvenated quarterback Alex Smith and boom running back Kareem Hunt, they're arguably the form team in the competition. One of just two undefeated sides through three games, KC boasts two wins on the road including one over Superbowl 51 champions New England. No wonder they've improved from $34 to $13 on the Superbowl 52 futures board at ubet.com.
Looking ahead, the Atlanta Falcons appear a good bet to cover the 7.5-point line at $1.90 against Buffalo, even though the Bills are giving up the fewest points of any team through three games. Atlanta's the other undefeated team in the league and, as outrageous as it sounds, shot caller Matt Ryan is maybe playing better than he was last season when he took the 'Dirty Birds' to within a quarter of being crowned Superbowl champions. Smart punters also like the Steelers to score a bounce back road cover (-3 at $1.95) against the Ravens, who would no doubt have travelled back from London with their tails between their legs after giving up 44-points to the Jaguars in what was a truly trashy performance.
Tip: Atlanta Falcons -7.5 against Buffalo Bills ($1.90)
The Springboks will still be smarting after their 57-0 loss to the All Blacks a couple of weeks ago, and it appears as though punters think they will bounce back against the Wallabies on Saturday night in Bloemfontein. Australia don't have a great record at altitude, and have lost their last four games in South Africa, so there is plenty of money for the Boks at $1.37, and particularly at the line of -7.5.
The other Championship game will see Argentina host New Zealand. The All Blacks have never been beaten by the Pumas, but did get a scare in NZ when they trailed at half time before going on to record a 17 point win. Argentina are $10 to win this clash, but the value may be with the 21.5 point start they are receiving. New Zealand have split their side with several players already in South Africa for next week's match, so will be seriously under strength for this one.
Tip: Argentina +21.5 against New Zealand ($1.90)
The Presidents Cup will wind up the US PGA Tour this week. Despite the Internationals only winning once in 11 starts, and that was in Melbourne in 2011, there is plenty of interest in them to win in New Jersey.
After opening at $4.50, the Internationals are now $4.00 on the back of some good form recently by Marc Leishman, and to a lesser degree Jason Day. Hideki Matsuyama and Day share favouritism to be top points scorers for the Internationals at $5.50, but there is terrific support for Leishman and Adam Scott at $7.00. The USA are $1.33 to win the Cup (a tie is $13), and Dustin Johnson along with Jordan Spieth are $5.50 to top their points scoring. Next is Rickie Fowler at $7.50 and a very in-form Justin Thomas at $8.00.
The British Masters is the Euro Tour event this week, and it has drawn together a very impressive field. Sergio Garcia is the $8.00 favourite, narrowly ahead of Rory McIlroy at $9.00, followed by last year's winner Alex Noren at $15. McIlroy has been best backed in the early action but he has been out of sorts in the latter part of this year. There are eight Aussies in the field with Scott Hend being the shortest of those at $67 and he is $3.25 to be the 'Top Aussie'.
The Australian 50 over domestic competition, the JLT Cup, began yesterday (Wednesday) and UBET will have a full coverage throughout the series. The Qld Bulls were the $4.00 favourites, and best backed going into the start. That market will be updated at the end of each match.
India have already won their ODI series against Australia winning the first three matches, and game 4 will be on tonight in Bangalore. Based on what we have seen so far the $1.50 for an Indian win probably looks over the odds, and that is where the bulk of the money bet has gone so far.
The Singapore F1 Grand Prix looked like a demolition derby on the first bend, with victory eventually going to Lewis Hamilton who started at $15. That sort of price for Hamilton doesn't come around too often but he did have to come from five spots back on the grid after struggling in the practice sessions. They race in Malaysia this weekend, and while that circuit is a lot more forgiving than what they faced in Singapore, humidity and oppressive conditions are always a problem there. Daniel Ricciardo won here last year and is $15 to do so again. Hamilton is the $1.85 favourite but Sebastian Vettel is right behind him at $2.70 and Vettel has won here three times, the last being in 2015. Surprisingly Hamilton has only one win in Malaysia and that was in 2014.
Tip: Vettel to win the Malaysian Grand Prix ($2.70)
The superbike season is nearing completion, and after Jonathon Rea won both races in Portugal recently, the rider's title is all but his. Magny-Cours, France, will host the two races this week and Rea does have a solid record at the track having won both races in 2015. Chaz Davies won both last year and Rea did finish second in one of those. Rea will be opening favourite to win race 1 this week from Davies, with Tom Sykes the only other one likely to be given any hope at all.
Bathurst is only a little over a week away, and while footy finals take pride of place this week, there is already plenty of early interest in the great race. Car 88 (Whincup/Dumbrell) is an easing $4.50 favourite ahead of the well-backed Car 17 (McLaughlin/Premat) at $5.00. Others to have met with big early support have been Car 55 (Mostert/Owen) at $8.00 and the ever reliable Craig Lowndes at $10, who once again will go around in Car 888 with Steve Richards.