GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 20TH SEPTEMBER
UBET AFL punters expect Richmond to win their way through to next week's AFL Grand Final, but who the Tigers will play is not as clear. Richmond remain at $1.90 to win the flag, and in their preliminary final this week they have firmed from $1.40 in to $1.38 already, with the line moving from -15.5 to -16.5. In both their matches this season, wins went the way of Richmond, and the scores were similar, 113-70 in round 6, and 105-77 in round 19, both at the MCG. That's a good stat in favour of the Tigers, and they are also unbeaten in 15 appearances at the MCG this season (now 22 straight), while Collingwood has a 9-6 record there this year. It is a long time ago, but the last time these two met in a final at the MCG was back in the 1980 Grand Final where the Tigers won 159-78.
Saturday night's prelim final in Perth has had two betting trends. Initially the early money was for Melbourne at the opening $2.05, but in the past 48 hours the money has swung the other way to the Eagles, and the $1.80 might be on the move inwards soon. Melbourne will be heading across the Nullarbor in the knowledge that they beat the Eagles by 17 points in Perth only a few weeks ago, and beat them there at their previous meeting, but the Eagles had won the previous nine. The premiership betting with these two is interesting, even though they Eagles are favourites to win the game, they are both $5.00 to win the flag, the thought process being that if Melbourne win through to the GF, they will be a shorter price (and more popular) than what the West Coast would be.
The SANFL preliminary final created headlines around Australia on Monday after North Adelaide won an epic battle against the Eagles, but then had to sit through a tribunal to see if they would play in this Sunday's GF against Norwood. The Eagles had 19 men on the field for four minutes in the final quarter, but were eventually given clearance to play this weekend. Norwood have been long odds-on for several months, and have already been a mover from $1.45 in to $1.40 to win the flag. North did thrash Norwood by 44 points early in the season, but Norwood won the second match by 15 points in round 18. We will have live betting throughout this final.
Monday night is Brownlow night, and Tom Mitchell has been on the drift for a few weeks now. Mitchell got as short as $1.35 six-weeks ago, but is out to $1.55 at the moment after being $1.60 early in the week. Short-priced favourites have a good recent record in the Brownlow, and aside from Mitchell, the only two other players that are being given any consideration are the two behind him, Dustin Martin ($8.00) and Max Gawn ($9.00). That continues a theme of players who are in the finals series being popular, even though voting finished at the end of the home-and-away games. Martin, who obviously wasn't as dominant this season as he was last year when he won the Brownlow, is a proven vote getter and those types of players always attract plenty of business. We have dozens of bet types open on the Brownlow, and several of these will remain open throughout the count.
Tip: West Coast to beat Melbourne ($1.80)
Melbourne Storm are back to full-strength, and although Cronulla beat the Storm twice this season in low scoring affairs (14-4, 17-14), betting suggests that Melbourne will dump the Sharks from the finals series on Friday night. Storm opened at $1.45 but they've been a huge mover, now $1.36, with the largest bet being $30,000 at $1.42. As a result the Sharks have drifted from $2.75 out to $3.20, with the line now 8.0. As far as premiership betting is concerned, Melbourne have been the 'money' side this week, favourites at $2.65 ahead of the Roosters ($3.00), Souths ($4.25) and the Sharks bring up the rear at $8.00.
The other prelim final is full of intrigue. How will the Roosters go without Latrell Mitchell, and will the off-field dramas that have been going on at Souths affect their game? The two matches between the two sides saw each gain a win this season, and the betting has been split right down the middle, both for the dollar investments as well as the bet numbers. The prices are yet to move since betting was opened. The Roosters are $1.75 favourites with Souths at $2.10.
The Intrust Super Cup Grand Final will be played at Suncorp on Sunday, and Easts Tigers have had to make the GF the hard way, but have been best-backed this week. The Tigers remain at $2.25 but have attracted most of the early business even though Redcliffe are the $1.65 favourites. Redcliffe won both matches during the season, the last by only two points in round 18, but the Tigers have had several players called into the Melbourne Storm side during the season, and several of those will be lining up on Sunday.
The Dally M medal will be decided next Wednesday night, and while it lags significantly behind the Brownlow Medal as far as profile goes, some changes to the format (and secrecy) has seen betting on this one grow over the past couple of years. There are four main hopes according to the prices, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Warriors), ruling favourite at $2.50, Damien Cook (Souths) at $4.50, and Kaylyn Ponga (Newcastle) along with Val Holmes (Cronulla), both at $5.00. Ponga spent the major portion of the season as favourite but was out injured at the back end of the season. Best-backed in the past fortnight has been Holmes at the $5.00.
Tip: Melbourne -8.0 against the Sharks ($1.90)
The Top 30 in the Fedex Cup will do battle in the Tour Championship this week, and with so much prizemoney on offer there is always huge interest in this tournament. New world number one Justin Rose shares top billing with Rory McIlroy at $10, ahead of Dustin Johnson ($11), and Justin Thomas along with Tiger Woods on the $13 line of betting. Tiger hasn't been in the Tour Championship since 2013 but his fans would take comfort from the fact that he is getting back into form, and is a two-time winner of the Tour Championship, and has also played well at East Lake. From nine appearances he has a win, four seconds, and two top 10 finishes as well. Xander Shauffele won this event last year and has had interest at $29 while the three Aussies in the field, Jason Day ($26), Cameron Smith ($51) and Marc Leishman ($51) also have their fair share of supporters.
Tip: Brooks Koepka to win the Tour Championship ($15)
Jamie Whincup and Paul Dumbrell made it a one act affair at the Sandown 500 at the weekend, and the popular duo in Car 1 are well and truly in the mix for Bathurst which will be run on October 7. Car 1 and Car 97 (Van Gisbergen/Bamber) share favouritism at $3.75 ahead of Car 888 (Lowndes/Richards). Those two cars finished second and third at Sandown, and have been heavily backed to win Bathurst, particularly Car 888 in what will be Craig Lowndes' last appearance on 'The Mountain'.
Marc Marquez has a terrific record in Aragon and he will go into this week's motoGP race as clear favourite at $2.30. Marquez has won there the past two seasons as well as in 2013, with Jorge Lorenzo the other rider who has accrued a good record here as well. Aragon is one of the major test tracks for the bikes, and Lorenzo won here in 2014 and 2015 as well as finishing on the podium in 2013, 2016 and 2017. Lorenzo is clear second pick in the betting at $2.75 with Andrea Dovizioso the only other serious contender at $4.50.
The Victorian election is looming quickly, and things have turned for the incumbent Andrews Labor Government. After spending the major portion of this year as outsiders, the results of several by-elections around Australia as well as the turmoil at the helm of the Coalition federally has seen money come for Labor who are now $1.62 (in from $2.30). The Coalition are out of favour with the punters at the moment, now trading at $2.15. That trend has also been evident at a federal level where Labor are now $1.30 with the Coalition at $3.25, although we have noticed a little bit of interest in the outsiders since Scott Morrison took over at the helm.
A new look Australian side will be in the UAE in a few weeks' time in a series against Pakistan. This will be the first time the Australian side has been in action since the drama in South Africa, and there will be two tests decided as well as three T/20 matches. While it will be no easy assignment, there has been good support for the Australians to win the first Test. After opening at $3.25, they are in to $2.90 with Pakistan at $2.00 (out from $1.90), with the 'draw' option completely ignored at $4.50.
RACING (by Nicole Thomas)
The racing heads back to Caulfield and Rosehill this Saturday and both tracks host a group 1 feature. The Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes is Caulfield race 8 and The Golden Rose is race 7 on the Rosehill program.
The Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes is always a competitive 1400m affair and this year is no exception. This is certainly the acid test for Osborne Bulls (has only run in listed company) but he is chalking up one impressive record and is currently a $6.00 chance. The favourite is ex-English star Home Of The Brave ($4.20) who couldn't have been more impressive winning the Theo Marks and should be even better over the extra 100m. There's been early support for both Land Of Plenty ($6.00-$5.50) and Peaceful Sate ($10-$9.50) but both are stepping well-up in grade. Next pick in the market is the Godolphin import, Jungle Cat ($10), who is carrying top weight of 58kg but looks to be better suited at 1200m.
Another huge draw-card at Caulfield is the keenly contested Naturalism Stakes (group 3) and the stakes are high, as the winner gets free entry into the Caulfield Cup. The top elect is Night's Watch, installed at $3.50, who ran an exceptional third in the Dato a fortnight ago. Second pick is the classy English-trained Folkswood in the Godolphin blue ($6.00-$5.50), he won the Cranbourne Cup first-up last prep and this race looks well within his grasp. There has also been early interest in both Spanish Reef ($21-$18) and Northwest Passage ($34-$26) at the double-figure odds.
The Golden Rose is the headline act at Rosehill and under the set weights, it is hard to see anything other than the top four taking this one out. Three of the top four in the market are trained by Chris Waller, they are The Autumn Sun ($4.40), Lean Mean Machine ($5.50) and Zousain ($8.00-$7.50). Kris Lees will be hoping to spoil the party with the favourite Graff ($3.50-$3.40), who suffered his first ever loss in the Run To The Rose after a gutsy run. The winner of that race was of course Lean Mean Machine and Graff is going to have his work cut out turning the tables on Saturday.
Tip: Naturalism Stakes (MR7) - Folkswood ($5.50)
* Prices correct 4pm Thursday 20th September 2018