GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 4TH OCTOBER
The West Coast Eagles defied their pre-season odds to win the 2018 flag, but had to do it the hard way. Around 65% of the pre-match money was on the Eagles who firmed from $2.40 in to $2.25 at kick-off, but touched $6.00 in the first quarter when they trailed by five goals. It was a great game, and a good betting contest. From half-time onwards it was on, particularly in the final couple of minutes, and it was only then that the Eagles became favourite for the first time, and the rest is history.
We always expect that the two grand finalists attract money for next year after the winner is known, and although you could argue the West Coast can only get better next year from what we saw in the Grand Final, they are $11 and already plenty have re-invested on them. Collingwood are just ahead of the eagles at $9.00 and the second best-backed side, closely followed by Richmond who opened at $5.00. There are those out there who clearly think Carlton will be a big improver as there has been a stream of bets for the Blues at $251.
If you are a fan of anybody with the Christian name 'Luke' you should have had a fill up at the weekend on the Norm Smith and Coleman Medals. Luke Shuey won the Coleman and then Luke Keary won the Churchill in Sunday's NRL Grand Final. Oddly both went into their respective games at $15, so a win to either wasn't a real shock. The Sydney Roosters were also $2.20 outsiders with Melbourne Storm at $1.70, but the bulk of the money, and individual bets, was with the Storm. Having said that a couple of big bets landed when the Roosters won, the biggest of those being $54,000 at $2.25 taken on Friday, and another of $14,000 at $2.20 on Saturday. Live betting stalled once the Roosters got to a 14-0 lead, and it was pretty much game-over from half-time onwards.
Billy Slater played his last game for the Storm, and there is some talk around that perhaps Cam Smith will call it a day before next season, so Melbourne have opened up at $8.00 to win the 2019 title, and there have only been a few small takers. The Roosters are clear favourites at $4.50, and that is where punters are happy to play although there has also been some interest shown in Penrith at $11 and St George Illawarra at $17.
The last of the Rugby Championship matches will be played this weekend although there will a third Bledisloe Cup match played in Japan in three weeks' time.
South Africa score one of the biggest upsets in sport for the year when they defeated New Zealand 36-34 in Wellington back in round 4, but are still $4.50 outsiders to beat the All Blacks at Loftus Versfeld on Saturday night. New Zealand are $1.20 with the line set at 11.5 points, and punters have shown a distinct liking for the plus on South Africa there.
That same round saw another upset when Argentina beat the Wallabies 23-19 on the Gold Coast. The Wallabies are on track to finish at the bottom of the table, and coach Michael Cheika is on the brink of losing his job. Argentina have opened at $1.75 to beat Australia in Salta, Argentina on Sunday morning (Australian time), and looking at the betting coming in on this match, it appears as though UBET customers have lost complete faith in the Wallabies as there is very little interest in them at $2.05.
Tip: Argentina to beat the Wallabies ($1.75)
Europe won the Ryder Cup in impressive fashion, and they were the late firmer in betting, from $2.40 in to $2.15. They were $1.65 at the end of Day 1, and were near on unbackable after that as they stormed away for a big win.
Things return to normal this week with an event on both major tours, and one is the first of the new season on the US Tour. Strangely the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (Europe) and the Safeway Open in the USA both have the same defending champ from last year, and even more bizarre is that both also won the previous year! Tyrell Hatton has won the last two Alfred Dunhill's and as you would expect he is well in commission at $15 this week. Ruling favourite is probably the 'form' player of the year, Brooks Koepka at $12, ahead of Tommy Fleetwood at $13, then follows Hatton and Tony Finau at $17. Fleetwood starred in the Ryder Cup last week so we are seeing plenty of interest in him, and Finau was also good in the Ryder, and there is also early support there. The shortest of the Aussies is the in-form Lucas Herbert at $67.
Brendan Steele is $34 to make a three-peat of the Safeway Open in Napa, California, and there are a few who think he can do it again. Patrick Cantlay is our $11 favourite, and then it is out to $21 for Ryan Moore and Brandt Snedeker. The Silverado Resort has only been used three times for this event, we know Steele won the last two and the winner in 2015 was Emiliano Grillo who is $26 this year, the same price as evergreen Phil Mickelson. Matt Jones is the shortest of the Australians at $67.
Tip: Tony Finau to win the Alfred Dunhill ($17)
Some of the NBL teams are strutting their stuff in the USA this week against NBA sides, and while none were expected to beat any of the big guns, they have been competitive. There will be three in action this Saturday coming, Melbourne, Perth and Adelaide. All are $17 pops to win with each line around the low 20's. They all then hop on a plane to come home in readiness for round 1 which gets under way next Thursday. Adelaide will host Perth in that first match and after going through the recent NBL Blitz pre-season comp undefeated, Adelaide have moved into slight favourites at $1.85 ahead of Perth at $1.95.
There have been a few moves in title betting this week with the Sydney Kings back in to $3.00 favourites after spending a couple of weeks at $3.25. Melbourne could possibly have some injury worries with Chris Goulding, and they have drifted from $3.25 to $3.50, while Perth are next in line at $6.00.
The JLT Cup is winding up and the final will be played on Saturday week.
Sunday will see the beginning of the first test in Sharjah between Pakistan and Australia, and while the Aussies will have a depleted side for several reasons, their lead-up match against Pakistan allowed some of the batsman to get themselves into some form , and also showed how important Nathan Lyon will be in these two tests. There has been a shift in the market with Pakistan moving from $1.90 out to $2.05, Australia have been $3.00 in to $2.90, with the draw unmoved (and untouched) at $4.25. There will be live betting throughout the test with the usual bet types open.
Tip: Australia to beat Pakistan in the first test ($2.90)
The combo of Reynolds/Youlden (Car 9) won Bathurst last year, but although they are well up in the betting at $11 to make it back-to-back wins, very few rate them a chance to win the big race on Sunday. Race favourite is currently Whincup/Dumbrell in Car 1 at $3.75. That price isn't likely to move outwards as at the moment as they, along with Car 888 (Lowndes/Richards) at $5.50, have been clearly the best-backed. Both of those combinations have been together for several seasons, and that has to be an advantage. As we know this will be the last season in Supercars for Craig Lowndes who announced his retirement earlier in the season, but in all likelihood he will be back each year for these team events. Car 97 (Van Gisbergen/Bamber) occupy the second line of betting at $4.50, and although Van Gisbergen leads the Championship title, Car 97 has been the least popular of the trio at the head of the market.
Live betting will be available throughout Bathurst on Sunday and as we have seen over an extended period of time, there can be so many twists and turns that affect the result, even into the last lap.
Tip: Car 888 to win the Bathurst 1000 ($5.50)
Although we have been told that the practise of 'handing up' in Formula 1 racing was a thing of the past, it was on again last week in Russia when Valtteri Bottas bowed to team orders and handed victory to Lewis Hamilton. That was good news for those who took the $1.65 for Hamilton to win even though Bottas ($2.75) qualified fastest, and probably sets the benchmark for the rest of the season if the two drivers find themselves in the same situation again.
Racing this week will be in Suzuka, Japan, and Hamilton comes into this race having won there the past two years, and is a four-time winner overall. Sebastian Vettel has also won the Japanese GP four times, the most recent of those in 2013. Hamilton has opened the UBET favourite at $1.75 ahead of Vettel at $3.00, with a decent gap to Bottas at $8.00, but it wouldn't be a surprise to many that Bottas has been hard to sell.
Tip: Hamilton to win the Japanese Grand Prix ($1.75)
Heats of the UBET Adelaide Cup will be run tonight (Thursday) with the final due to be run next week on Friday night. There will only be five heats this year as unfortunately the Cup has been knocked around due to the inaugural running of the Million Dollar Chase in NSW. Most of the bigger kennels have targeted the big prizemoney on offer there, but the heats in Adelaide still have some classy greyhounds in them. There has been a huge early move in the second heat for Victorian youngster Aston Kimetto. The Seona Thompson-trained dog opened at $3.20 on Monday but by Tuesday night was in to $1.65. Aston Kimetto lacks early pace but being out of champion stayer, Sweet It Is, he is very strong (as expected). He is the $6.50 equal favourite with another Victorian, Chief's Empire, to take out the Cup. Four of the main local hopes, Fabwick, Honcho Monelli, Nations and Spring Bridge are all at $8.00.
RACING (By Nicole Thomas)
The superb spring racing continues on to Flemington for Turnbull Stakes Day and the champion mare Winx is back in action! We have run out of adjectives good enough to describe the star and she is ready to trounce her nine peers to chalk up her 21st group one win. It will be hard to see any of her rivals getting close over her preferred trip of 2000m and this will be her last hit-out before she attempts to claim an unprecedented fourth Cox Plate title! Grunt is on the second line of betting at $11 and is on the quick back-up after being beaten as favourite in the Underwood Stakes. King's Will Dream is also priced at $11 and ran second to Grunt in the Makybe Diva but with the Caulfield Cup firmly in his sights, you'd expect the extra trip to suit. The Queensland Oaks winner, Youngstar, is next in the market at $19 and has impressed in both runs this campaign with her last effort being gutsy third in the Shannon Stakes after an unlucky run. The feature is race 5 and not in the quaddie, so we still have a chance at collecting a nice fat dividend. Other races on the Flemington card include the Gilgai Stakes, Bart Cummings, Manifold Stakes and Blazer Stakes. The lowest grade of race on the program is listed so we're looking forward to a cracking day of racing!
The racing at Randwick on Saturday is not too shabby either as it's Spring Champion Stakes Day. The horses contesting this race have their sights set on the VRC Derby and the favourite here is Gloaming Stakes Winner, Thinkin' Big ($3.50). However, favourites have not fared that well in recent years. As we go down the board, Dealmaker ($7.00) is next and arguably should have won the Stan Fox. Aramayo ($7.50) won the Spring Stakes at Newcastle last start and is third pick. Tarka ran second to Thinkin' Big in the Gloaming Stakes and is an $8.00 chance. Others in the market include Frankly Awesome at $8.50 with both Mickey Blue Eyes and Purple Sector at $9.50. The early-doors lined up to back Maid Of Heaven ($15-$11) after she over-raced in the Flight Stakes and still didn't finish far off the pace. Also on the Randwick card is the Roman Consul and the Angst Stakes.
The Moir last week signalled the return of the night racing at Moonee Valley! So there's no better way to kick-start your weekend of racing then to have a few quiet bets at the Valley tomorrow night.
Tip: The Bart Cummings - Midterm (each way) ($11)
* Prices correct 4pm 4th October 2018